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Analyst: Apple's iPad to lead tablet market explosion for 'foreseeable future'

post #1 of 22
Thread Starter 
According to one analyst, the market for consumer tablets could top 215 million units by 2015, with the iPad expected to dominate the market's explosive growth.

Sanford Bernstein chip analyst Stacy Rasgon issued a 49-page white paper concerning the tablet market on Friday, Barrons reports. Rasgon expects tablets to "grow like wildfire" with a compounded annual growth rate of 66 percent.

The note found consumer interest to be "staggering," with 20 percent of individuals surveyed by the firm indicating plans to purchase a tablet in the next year. We have never seen such a high purchasing intent for a new category in the past.

Rasgon sees Apple dominating the market "for the foreseeable future." In the first year of availability, Apple sold 19.5 million iPads, more than three times the number of iPhones sold in its first year, and double the initial sales of netbooks.

"Apple has created a company the size of EMC in one year, if iPad revenues were spun off into a separate company, the report noted.

According to Rasgon and her colleagues, tablets will drive only "modest" cannibalization of PCs, with room for multiple "Internet access devices" among consumers. The report named Dell and HP as more credible tablet producers among consumers than HTC and other smartphone makers. But, Intel is expected to miss out on the tablet boom, as the chipmaker is likely to "miss the boat" with its tablet chips.

As rivals struggle to compete with the iPad, the analysts foresee prices dropping, though panel prices are expected to constrain the race to the bottom. Rasgon sees a sub-$200 tablet as a possibility by 2015.

Apple announced last week that total iPad sales have reached the 25 million milestone in just 14 months, putting the company on track to sell an estimated 8 million this quarter.

Though the initial success of the iPad prompted some initial concerns among analysts that the device would cannibalize the PC market, recent reports have suggested that the iPad has instead brought new revenue to the consumer technology industry. Apple has admitted that the iPad may have caused some cannibalization of its Mac business, while also acknowledging a "halo effect" from the touchscreen tablet.

"If this is cannibalization, it feels pretty good," Apple COO TIm Cook said earlier this year after a record quarter.
post #2 of 22
...so don't just sit there. Go buy some AAPL! Which is currently at a bargain basement price.
post #3 of 22
Duh! Really! Who would have thunk.
post #4 of 22
I'm not sure that these types of predictions could have come true without iCloud. But with the ability to truly replace a PC, iCloud+iOS 5 really could push iPad sales this high.
post #5 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

The report named Dell and HP as more credible tablet producers among consumers than HTC and other smartphone makers.

A great example of why Apple doesn't rely on market research. I wouldn't touch a Dell or HP tablet with a 10 foot stylus.
post #6 of 22
I laugh at and mock anybody who bashed the iPad or dismissed it when it first came out. Anybody who is reasonably intelligent and doesn't have their head stuck up their butt was able to see that it was going to be huge.

I'll probably be buying a second iPad2 soon and giving it to my mom, like many people she's totally clueless when it comes to anything computer related.
post #7 of 22
Not bloody likely. WHo's going to build so many tablets? http://bit.ly/m2maPF
post #8 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

A great example of why Apple doesn't rely on market research. I wouldn't touch a Dell or HP tablet with a 10 foot stylus.

+++ QFT.
"Swift generally gets you to the right way much quicker." - auxio -

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"Swift generally gets you to the right way much quicker." - auxio -

"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -
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post #9 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

A great example of why Apple doesn't rely on market research. I wouldn't touch a Dell or HP tablet with a 10 foot stylus.

I'm guessing they are thinking of business users who want Microsoft Office on their tablets.
post #10 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by monstrosity View Post

...so don't just sit there. Go buy some AAPL! Which is currently at a bargain basement price.

So true!
From Apple ][ - to new Mac Pro I've used them all.
Long on AAPL so biased
Google Motto "You're not the customer. You're the product."
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From Apple ][ - to new Mac Pro I've used them all.
Long on AAPL so biased
Google Motto "You're not the customer. You're the product."
Reply
post #11 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by Orlando View Post

I'm guessing they are thinking of business users who want Microsoft Office on their tablets.

Microsoft Office on a tablet? That makes it even worse! We already have s atrong hint that windows 8 on tablet will support Office via some sort of translation layer between touchscreen and mouse/keyboard. I feel a bit queasy just talking about it.
post #12 of 22
It's rather hard to imagine that with the explosive growth of the iPad, Apple's share price has been held in check for seven months. Things really don't add up at all. A company truly can't wipe out so much competition and yet it's stock value doesn't grow. There's too much about the stock market I honestly don't understand. There doesn't seem to be any balance.
post #13 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

Microsoft Office on a tablet? That makes it even worse! We already have s atrong hint that windows 8 on tablet will support Office via some sort of translation layer between touchscreen and mouse/keyboard. I feel a bit queasy just talking about it.

The performance curve by 2015 for embedded SoC will surpass today's desktop. The next leap of SoC will be hitting the shelves by 2013 and people will continue to remind themselves about Moore's Law and much more.
post #14 of 22
"Apple's iPad to lead tablet market explosion for 'foreseeable future'"

This is a classic non-statement.

Apple leads the market now.

The analyst knows of no reason why that would change, which can be an absence of knowledge rather than knowledge of the contrary.

The only difference between this analyst and my dog is my dog can't make sentences.

Many of the most important software concepts were invented in the 70s and forgotten in the 80s.

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Many of the most important software concepts were invented in the 70s and forgotten in the 80s.

Reply
post #15 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

Microsoft Office on a tablet? That makes it even worse! We already have s atrong hint that windows 8 on tablet will support Office via some sort of translation layer between touchscreen and mouse/keyboard. I feel a bit queasy just talking about it.

Given the world's massive reliance on data that is held in Office documents, I'd like to see Apple make their own client to those formats, for iOS and OSX and even the web.

This is different from the dysfunctional import/export model in iWork.

If Apple made a front end of their own, they could then choose to support only those features that have one-to-one parity between iWork and Office (and OpenOffice), creating a seamless subset that would make iWork.com have real value as a format-agnostic document hub, ideally integrated into iCloud.

Building a team within Apple that understands the Office formats deeply would allow Apple to use the format to invade the Microsoft space, rather than the current situation where Office helps Microsoft invade the Apple space.

Many of the most important software concepts were invented in the 70s and forgotten in the 80s.

Reply

Many of the most important software concepts were invented in the 70s and forgotten in the 80s.

Reply
post #16 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post

The performance curve by 2015 for embedded SoC will surpass today's desktop. The next leap of SoC will be hitting the shelves by 2013 and people will continue to remind themselves about Moore's Law and much more.

You misunderstand completely my point. I'm not saying there's a performance problem, I'm saying there's a UI problem. Office is designed for mouse/keyboard and that's a completely different input paradigm to multitouch screen. If MS don't produce a special tablet edition of office then it will be agony to use - even if the tablet is running a full power desktop chip.
post #17 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by PXT View Post

... ... ...
The only difference between this analyst and my dog is my dog can't make sentences.
Last edited by PXT; Today at 09:10 AM.. Reason: woof, woof woof woof !



That is very funny. Bravo.
post #18 of 22
Analyst: Apple's iPad to lead tablet market explosion for 'foreseeable future'

Good God! does this guy get paid for these amazing predictions?

He went on to say that you all have a Mum and Dad and some time during your life, you will breathe and also die. Bold predictions by this guy.
post #19 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

Not bloody likely. WHo's going to build so many tablets? http://bit.ly/m2maPF


With current iPad demand, it should be a no brainer to predict that production capacity would get ramped up.... and here you go. http://bit.ly/mnwCHl
post #20 of 22
All these sales numbers are all very well, but they miss the most important statistic which is "use".

Use can be monetised in magazine subscriptions, music purchasing, app buying, etc and so in many respects is far more important than sheer "tablet sales". "Use" is the recurring purchase, and more importantly, those purchases can be transferred to a new device within the chosen family range in the future (eg, buy an iPad 1, and transfer your apps/music/etc to your iPad 4).

Someone who uses an iPad 1 today, is an iPad X purchaser in the future.

However, sheer sales is a total red herring. What is the point in selling a CripplePad for $200 that someone will use for 5-6 days before discarding it because of it's limitations? The manufacturer made peanuts on the sale, the retailer made very little as well and the user bought no apps/music/etc whilst using it. Who exactly made any money? No one.

So whilst you have sold 40 billion CripplePads, most will end up in a cupboard within days.

The next issue is that the CripplePad won't be replaced any time soon either. If you bought a $200 tablet that you can't use, why spend $500 on one to replace it? The user experience is already soured. Which is how I kinda see the fate of a lot of Honeycomb devices.

Regardless of sheer numbers that sell, the important number will be profit, and as we've already seen from the iPhone, Apple are doing the right thing at the right time with the right platform to make sure that they will be making the cash at the end of the day.
post #21 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

It's rather hard to imagine that with the explosive growth of the iPad, Apple's share price has been held in check for seven months. Things really don't add up at all. A company truly can't wipe out so much competition and yet it's stock value doesn't grow. There's too much about the stock market I honestly don't understand. There doesn't seem to be any balance.

The last thing we need is to have speculation take hold over reason.
post #22 of 22
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