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What's up with AAPL!?

post #1 of 15
Thread Starter 
Down over 11% in the past couple of months. Some of it is market-related, for sure, but it seems to be going beyond that.

I am treating it as a buying opportunity, but also wondering what the market is getting so ants-y about.
post #2 of 15
They're whiners. Steve's been out, and of course he's the only one who's able to do anything at Apple.

Just buy it while it's cheap.

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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post #3 of 15
AAPL has been a standout under-performer since last October, more or less. I've been talking about this for months now. The underlying investor psychology behind the stock has been fundamentally altered during this time. Apple could do quite a lot to reverse this trend, but they won't do it, because basically they don't give a crap about investors.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #4 of 15
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

Apple could do quite a lot to reverse this trend, but they won't do it, because basically they don't give a crap about investors.

How can you say that 'Apple doesn't give a crap about investors'?! They have continued to execute well, consistently beat even far out whisper estimates, introduced a steady slew of new or updated products and services, kept Jobs as visible as possible, are signaling their continued focus on the future with things such as the planned new campus.

I know that you think that their starting to pay dividends would be a good thing. I disagree (since I think that it could be a disastrous move -- but then, my guess regarding why it could be a bad thing is as good as yours regarding why it could be a good thing). Leaving these arguable assertions aside, what is it that Apple could be doing that they are not?
post #5 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

How can you say that 'Apple doesn't give a crap about investors'?! They have continued to execute well, consistently beat even far out whisper estimates, introduced a steady slew of new or updated products and services, kept Jobs as visible as possible, are signaling their continued focus on the future with things such as the planned new campus.

I know that you think that their starting to pay dividends would be a good thing. I disagree (since I think that it could be a disastrous move -- but then, my guess regarding why it could be a bad thing is as good as yours regarding why it could be a good thing). Leaving these arguable assertions aside, what is it that Apple could be doing that they are not?

Because their investor relations stink. Always have. Primarily because they could do much more to reduce the uncertainty surrounding company leadership. Anything, actually, would be progress. And yes, because they continue to stockpile cash for no apparent reason, which does not bolster investor confidence. It raises questions that Apple refuses to even acknowledge, let alone answer. Investors don't care about their pretty new campus. They care about minimizing future uncertainty.

Beating earnings estimates only means something if the stock performs proportionally as a result. For the last six months or more, AAPL has not done so. So that's how.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #6 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

Because their investor relations stink. Always have. Primarily because they could do much more to reduce the uncertainty surrounding company leadership. Anything, actually, would be progress. And yes, because they continue to stockpile cash for no apparent reason, which does not bolster investor confidence.

I think the Nortel patent bidding demonstrated that the stockpiling of cash means that they have good reason for doing so. Who knows how much it might have cost and what other things they might want to purchase later?
post #7 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by sessamoid View Post

I think the Nortel patent bidding demonstrated that the stockpiling of cash means that they have good reason for doing so. Who knows how much it might have cost and what other things they might want to purchase later?

Six companies split the $4.5 billion cost, meaning Apple's share was probably about $750 million, which translates into about three weeks of cash flow. So no, the stockpile was not required for this investment, and it continues to grow at the rate of around $12-15 billion a year. For years I've been hearing about all the great but totally unknown things Apple can do with all that cash. At some point we will have to acknowledge that they are shoveling it into a huge, nonproductive heap because they could not possibly spend any significant part of it in a responsible way. I thought so three years ago when the cash hoard was half of what it is today. Maybe some others will come on board when it reaches $100 billion, a few months from now. Some probably never will.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #8 of 15
Wow. AAPL recently went past $358 in after hours trading. It's been on a decent bull run these past few days. Any reason for this? It's near all-time highs now.
post #9 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

Wow. AAPL recently went past $358 in after hours trading. It's been on a decent bull run these past few days. Any reason for this? It's near all-time highs now.

Good luck figuring what drives any stock move over a short space of time, unless the news is obviously good or bad, and even then the move can be contrary to the news. About all we can really say is that AAPL was hit harder than the broader markets in the June slump and has bounced back somewhat more strongly, and over the last month it has closely paced the NASDAQ composite. I will keep the champaign on ice until I see it start over-performing the index for at least a few weeks running.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #10 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

Good luck figuring what drives any stock move over a short space of time,

Pre-Lion buying. The day Lion's released, it'll drop back to 320 or lower.

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
Reply

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
Reply
post #11 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Pre-Lion buying. The day Lion's released, it'll drop back to 320 or lower.

Then short it like crazy if that's such a sure thing. Otherwise don't be telling us as if you really know.

Incidentally for those of who have never seen AAPL go crazy due an OS release (and I think that should be everyone), I will mention the Q3 earnings report due in the next couple of weeks. I will allow the reader to decide which one is likely to be the more important upcoming event to investors.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #12 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

Then short it like crazy if that's such a sure thing. Otherwise don't be telling us as if you really know.

Incidentally for those of who have never seen AAPL go crazy due an OS release (and I think that should be everyone), I will mention the Q3 earnings report due in the next couple of weeks. I will allow the reader to decide which one is likely to be the more important upcoming event to investors.

The last earnings report didn't give Apple the positive bump it deserved IIRC.
melior diabolus quem scies
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melior diabolus quem scies
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post #13 of 15
Be patient...

Stocks do not always go up. There are people out there who own good amount of apple stocks and they are just selling them. Also, people fear too much about Steve's Health.

Steve is the Best CEO I have seen yet, but he is not the apple. Apple is much more than Steve.

Apple stock is still too freaking cheap. 15 billion app downloads? Really? Tim Cook is talking to China Mobile about iphone. China Mobile has like 600 million users. Btw... that's like 5 times more users than AT&T and Verizon combined. There are potential of over 100 million Smartphone buyers.

Apple stock is no where near being overpriced. With iPad 3G and iPhone 3G sales getting a significant growth, there are still much more room to grow. I expect apple stock to hit 500 dollars easily. After that, it will go even higher.

iPhone 5 will do well, but the real kicker here are the iPad 3 and iPhone LTE.

Those app sales......
Those movies sales
Those music sales
Those iPhone + iPad sales bring money to apple from carriers.

If I was an investor, I would buy apple stocks. I would stay away from Samsung's stock. That company is going down...
post #14 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

The last earnings report didn't give Apple the positive bump it deserved IIRC.

Right. In fact the PE notched down again, but this is part of a long, slow process that began over three years ago.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #15 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

Good luck figuring what drives any stock move over a short space of time, unless the news is obviously good or bad, and even then the move can be contrary to the news. About all we can really say is that AAPL was hit harder than the broader markets in the June slump and has bounced back somewhat more strongly, and over the last month it has closely paced the NASDAQ composite. I will keep the champaign on ice until I see it start over-performing the index for at least a few weeks running.

Interestingly Google has outperformed Apple and Nasdaq in the recent run up. RIM is tanking. Anyone still holding to that better cut their losses now, I reckon.
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