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iPad sales will help Apple top HP, become largest mobile PC vendor in 2012

post #1 of 38
Thread Starter 
Apple is expected to dethrone market leader HP in terms of global notebook shipments next year, if the iPad is categorized as a portable computer.

The revelation comes from industry sources who spoke with DigiTimes. They said Apple is expected to ship a total of 60 million iPads in 2012, out of 80 million total tablets shipped.

When 15 million MacBooks are added into the equation, Apple would ship an estimated 75 million portable PCs in 2012. That would give the Cupertino, Calif., company 25 to 30 percent of the global notebook market.

HP is expected to ship between 45 million and 56 million units this year. And sources in the overseas electronics supply chain reportedly believe that HP will not be able to compete with Apple next year.

With the iPad categorized as a PC, Apple already became the top PC seller in the U.S. last October. Since then, iPad and Mac sales have only continued to grow.



Accordingly, a number of market research firms have begun classifying the iPad as a PC in their analyses. One tally released in January by Canalys found that Apple was the No. 3 worldwide PC maker with combined Mac and iPad sales, behind only Acer and HP.

Arguments against categorizing the iPad as a PC may carry even less weight after the release of iOS 5 this fall, adding PC-free setup to its touchscreen tablet. Wireless iTunes sync over Wi-Fi and iCloud backups will also allow users to ditch any wires in setting up and maintaining their iPhone or iPad.
post #2 of 38
Imagine being in a coma since 1997 and waking up and reading that Apple is the largest PC vendor in the world.
post #3 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Accordingly, a number of market research firms have begun classifying the iPad as a PC in their analyses. One tally released in January by Canalys found that Apple was the No. 3 worldwide PC maker with combined Mac and iPad sales, behind only Acer and HP.

We'll see how this plays out. Analysts have a tendency not to look at the big picture and iOS 5.0 allowing complete autonomy from a Mac/PC may not be enough for them, and that's before we consider the ones with ties to MS, Dell, HP et al.

It's a moot point in the end so long as we know the different ways the dog hunts. Apple themselves are calling it a post-PC device which is powerful marketing that has some cons with its pros. For instance, people still think Macs aren't PCs simply because Apple's successful advertising.
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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post #4 of 38
It's even more stunning if you take into account that HP makes on average USD25 (profit) per machine whereas Apple makes USD250 per machine (even when the iPad is included)!
post #5 of 38
With iOS 5, I don't see how the iPad can't be classified as a "PC", unless they choose not to classify Windows tablets as PCs either. Of course Apple gets to keep the profits either way, so it doesn't really matter, other than to make Gartner et al just look plain silly.
post #6 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by soubriquet View Post

and then the joy of remembering you bought 10,000 shares at $4 back just before you went in the coma

Then remembering it was your wife who bought the stock at $4/share which pissed you off for so foolishly wasting your money so you drove angry caused an accident, ended up in a coma, and the stock was liquidated long ago to pay the remains of your estate after she left you.
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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post #7 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleStud View Post

Imagine being in a coma since 1997 and waking up and reading that Apple is the largest PC vendor in the world.

This point just never gets old. It is so true. For anyone who was an apple fan in the 1990s, every day is like Christmas now. I don't think I'll ever be able to fully wrap my head around what Apple has accomplished.
post #8 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Apple themselves are calling it a post-PC device which is powerful marketing that has some cons with its pros. For instance, people still think Macs aren't PCs simply because Apple's successful advertising.

I know post-PC is such a brilliant marketing move for Apple. After Apple's successful iconic "Get a Mac" ads, to most people Steve is saying its a post Microsoft world

Genius just genius
post #9 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post

With iOS 5, I don't see how the iPad can't be classified as a "PC", unless they choose not to classify Windows tablets as PCs either. Of course Apple gets to keep the profits either way, so it doesn't really matter, other than to make Gartner et al just look plain silly.

Because of Lion moreso than iOS 5. Lion brings a lot of autonomy between Apples OSs.
post #10 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackbook View Post

Because of Lion moreso than iOS 5. Lion brings a lot of autonomy between Apples OSs.

How so? It's iOS 5.0 that makes it possible to set up the device sans first tethering it to a Mac or PC running iTunes.

It can even do OTA syncing and will have delta updates for OS and apps. Unfortunately it appears that iTunes 10.5 still requires the app proper to be running for the OTA syncing to work, at least in manual mode. I find this to be a let down and hope it's adjusted by the time it's officially released.
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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post #11 of 38
When Steve Jobs introduced the iPad, he talked about it being "the fourth screen". It's neither a PC or a smartphone. It's a new category of device.

Obviously the analysts are having a hard time getting their heads around this concept. I wonder if the first automobiles were lumped in with horse sales by the analysts of the time?
post #12 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post

This point just never gets old. It is so true. For anyone who was an apple fan in the 1990s, every day is like Christmas now. I don't think I'll ever be able to fully wrap my head around what Apple has accomplished.

Another indicator is how apoplectic and enraged the Apple haters have become. I'm surprised some of them haven't stroked out by now. They used to be sort of tongue-in-cheek in their dismissal of Apple, poor Maccies and all that. Now they literally run around with their hair on fire, unable to cope with how Apple has rocked their world. If that's not success I don't know what is.

Like all things, though, Apple will eventually fall. That's how the universe works.
post #13 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

Another indicator is how apoplectic and enraged the Apple haters have become. I'm surprised some of them haven't stroked out by now. They used to be sort of tongue-in-cheek in their dismissal of Apple, poor Maccies and all that. Now they literally run around with their hair on fire, unable to cope with how Apple has rocked their world. If that's not success I don't know what is.

Looking at the Neilsen marketshare stagnating at 27% for the whole of 2011 I'd say they are stroking out in line with the market growth rate. How else can you explain a "free" and "open" platform have zero growth in a fast growing market.
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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post #14 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post

With iOS 5, I don't see how the iPad can't be classified as a "PC", unless they choose not to classify Windows tablets as PCs either. Of course Apple gets to keep the profits either way, so it doesn't really matter, other than to make Gartner et al just look plain silly.

1) Sure, go ahead and classify Windows tablets as 'computers.'

2) Gartner et. al need no help in looking plain silly.
post #15 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Then remembering it was your wife who bought the stock at $4/share which pissed you off for so foolishly wasting your money so you drove angry caused an accident, ended up in a coma, and the stock was liquidated long ago to pay the remains of your estate after she left you.

post #16 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Apple is expected to dethrone market leader HP in terms of global notebook shipments next year, if the iPad is categorized as a portable computer.

The revelation comes from industry sources who spoke with DigiTimes. They said Apple is expected to ship a total of 60 million iPads in 2012, out of 80 million total tablets shipped.

It should be pointed out that of the 20 million non-iPad tablets shipped, probably half of them will linger on store shelves. My guess is that a million of those non-iPad tablets purchased will be returned.

Therefore, Apple would have 60 million out of 69 million units, which is about 87% marketshare. Unsurprisingly, that's very close to the current tablet usage statistics.
post #17 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Apple is expected to dethrone market leader HP in terms of global notebook shipments next year, if the iPad is categorized as a portable computer.

It's a fact that the iPad is a portable computer.

J.
post #18 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by soubriquet View Post

and then the joy of remembering you bought 10,000 shares at $4 back just before you went in the coma

However, since you were in a coma, someone was managing your affairs and they sold them as garbage.
post #19 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by jnjnjn View Post

It's a fact that the iPad is a portable computer.

J.

So is the iPhone, but it's clearly a different category.
post #20 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by jnjnjn View Post

It's a fact that the iPad is a portable computer.

J.

If the numerous reports we've seen -- and numerous CEOs bemoaning the same fact -- about iPads eating into PC sales are true (and I am inclined to think they are), then it would make perfect sense to think of iPads as a portable computer. And, it would make perfect sense to redefine the market as such.
post #21 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

If the numerous reports we've seen -- and numerous CEOs bemoaning the same fact -- about iPads eating into PC sales are true (and I am inclined to think they are), then it would make perfect sense to think of iPads as a portable computer. And, it would make perfect sense to redefine the market as such.

I guess a lot of it will come down to lobbying by the firms involved, HP et al may want them to keep tablets as a separate category and Apple may be quite happy with that arrangement too. It will be interesting to see how the memes play out though.
post #22 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

So is the iPhone, but it's clearly a different category.

Doesn't change the fact.

J.
post #23 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

If the numerous reports we've seen -- and numerous CEOs bemoaning the same fact -- about iPads eating into PC sales are true (and I am inclined to think they are), then it would make perfect sense to think of iPads as a portable computer. And, it would make perfect sense to redefine the market as such.

I agree, another point is the on average similar selling price of notebooks and iPads.

J.
post #24 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleStud View Post

Imagine being in a coma since 1997 and waking up and reading that Apple is the largest PC vendor in the world.

Some of the first questions you'd ask if you woke up from that coma would be "What the heck is an iPod?" "MP3? What ever happened to the Sony Walkman?" "What ever happened to all those Palm Pilots?"

"Awakenings," 1997: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0099077/

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post #25 of 38
All the "is it a PC" aside, Apple will sell more of four (expected) models of iPad (i.e. Wi-fi 2, 3G 2, Wi-fi 3 and 3G 3) than all the dozens of models of HP laptop next year, and four times as many as Apple's own MacBook and MacBook Pro ranges combined.

Anyone still saying they need a 7" version?

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post #26 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crowley View Post

Anyone still saying they need a 7" version?

They don't need one, but it might generate a bit more sales and more importantly it might stop competitors establishing a beach-head into grown-up tablet territory. Also it would further screw competitors trying to get touch screen components

2-3 million sales a year is chicken-feed compared to the iPad, but it's still a nice market to be in if you can get 80% of it.

I do agree with the people who think a 7inch tablet should be branded as an iPod though. They could even make it colourful anodized aluminium like the Nano to emphasize that it was a different kind of thing.
post #27 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

They don't need one, but it might generate a bit more sales and more importantly it might stop competitors establishing a beach-head into grown-up tablet territory. Also it would further screw competitors trying to get touch screen components

2-3 million sales a year is chicken-feed compared to the iPad, but it's still a nice market to be in if you can get 80% of it.

I do agree with the people who think a 7inch tablet should be branded as an iPod though. They could even make it colourful anodized aluminium like the Nano to emphasize that it was a different kind of thing.

Yeah, Apple can enter the smaller tablet market simply because they can not because they need to.

I like the idea of making a 5-7inch tablet into a gamepad under the iPod brand. The Nano and Shuffle lines can merge, the Touch moves to a nice 4 inch screen along with the iPhone and a 7 inch gamepad to top off the lineup.
post #28 of 38
Ballmer is correct that PC's are not dead. And Jobs is correct that this is a post-PC era.

The iPad will continue to evolve until they are as capable as the current crop of laptops just like the laptops are more capable than the desktop machines of several years back.

MS's problem is their vision and products are only PC level applications, which cannot effectively be shoe-horned into the Tablet/phone format factor. Apple, on the other hand, sees and creates products with focused design and capability and gives and pushes the industry over time.
post #29 of 38
I would not categorize the iPad as a computer. It can do alot of things, sure..
But calling it a Computer is a stretch.

Sure, you can create some content on it but that's not what most people use it for. No one is writing a novel on an iPad unless the name of the Novel is "Writing on iPad"..
A computer should be able to download files from the Internet. A computer should have some kind of User management etc. At least that's my opinion.

I am not saying a "slate" device can't be a computer, I just feel the OS needs more features to call itself that.

I would go so far as to say that a "slate" running Windows 7 or Mac OS X would be a computer. The iPad in it's current form is not.

Don't get me wrong, I love my iPad. But I would never call it a computer. Maybe it's just me. Or maybe the way we categorize a "Computer" is changing.
post #30 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by kiwee View Post

I would not categorize the iPad as a computer. It can do alot of things, sure..
But calling it a Computer is a stretch.

As I've said before, I won't consider the iPad a computer until it can host its own development environment.
post #31 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by kiwee View Post

I would not categorize the iPad as a computer. It can do alot of things, sure..
But calling it a Computer is a stretch.

Sure, you can create some content on it but that's not what most people use it for. No one is writing a novel on an iPad unless the name of the Novel is "Writing on iPad"..
A computer should be able to download files from the Internet. A computer should have some kind of User management etc. At least that's my opinion.

I am not saying a "slate" device can't be a computer, I just feel the OS needs more features to call itself that.

I would go so far as to say that a "slate" running Windows 7 or Mac OS X would be a computer. The iPad in it's current form is not.

Don't get me wrong, I love my iPad. But I would never call it a computer. Maybe it's just me. Or maybe the way we categorize a "Computer" is changing.

This argument reminds me of the dialogue between Will Smith and the android in I Robot. Smith declared that the robot can't be a person because it doesn't create great paintings. To which the robot replied, do YOU make great paintings?

Arbitrary distinctions like being able to download files from the internet or using one to write code as defining PC from non-PC are just that, arbitrary distinctions. A 286 from the 80's, before there were networks and before there was an internet to download files from was still a computer. Did it only become a computer once Al Gore inivented the internet?

The vast majority of computer users will never, ever use their computers to write code. I'm talking 99.99% of the world's PC using population. Does that mean none of those PC's are computers either? Are we saying that it only qualifies as a PC when it has the potential to write code? Because if that's the criteria, the iPad definitely has the potential. There's nothing technically preventing it from being able to do this. Are we sure the app doesn't exist? Even in the jailbroken app store markets?

Keep in mind too that both philosophically and literally speaking, Steve Jobs is trying his best to kill the 30 year old concept of nested folders. Files and folders for files and folders sake is simply not the future of personal computing in his book. He has said as much in different ways on multiple occasions. He's pulling a Cosby on this issue, he brought them into this world and he's gonna take them out.

And one more point- there are things that an iPad doesn't do or do as well as a desktop/notebook PC. Conversely there are things that an iPad does that a they can't do or do very well. Based on the explosive sales growth of iPads, you can reasonably assume that people are coming to the conclusion that iPads are more useful and work better for them than notebooks and desktops, and for a vast number of users is a better PC than what they had access to before. iPads can only become more useful and more robust over time, not less. So whatever arbitrary lines in the sand people hold today will be chipped away at (probably very quickly, within 2 years for any and all points). There's really no reason to hold any such prejudices against a platform that is clearly the future of personal computing.
post #32 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleStud View Post

Imagine being in a coma since 1997 and waking up and reading that Apple is the largest PC vendor in the world.

After the cobwebs clear you realize it is just the largest mobile PC vendor. Inexplicably this plunges you into another coma.
post #33 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

As I've said before, I won't consider the iPad a computer until it can host its own development environment.

The Macintosh in 1984 could not host its own development system. You had to use a Lisa computer and cross compile.
post #34 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by sdbryan View Post

The Macintosh in 1984 could not host its own development system. You had to use a Lisa computer and cross compile.

Then at that point I would still have considered it a device The analogy is inexact there anyway because the Lisa was running the same OS as the Mac and that OS could self-host. iOS cannot, in fact it's a deliberate decision by Apple to ensure that it never does.

Android at some point could become self-hosting though, or jail-borked iOS.
post #35 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichL View Post

When Steve Jobs introduced the iPad, he talked about it being "the fourth screen". It's neither a PC or a smartphone. It's a new category of device.

Obviously the analysts are having a hard time getting their heads around this concept. I wonder if the first automobiles were lumped in with horse sales by the analysts of the time?

Wasn't the "car" named so because it was a "horse-less CARriage"? Which makes you wonder, maybe the iPad is a "keyboard-less PC" to people that haven't wrapped their head around it.
post #36 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by SockRolid View Post

Some of the first questions you'd ask if you woke up from that coma would be "What the heck is an iPod?" "MP3? What ever happened to the Sony Walkman?" "What ever happened to all those Palm Pilots?"

"Awakenings," 1997: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0099077/

There was an episode in House exactly about a guy in a coma that wakes up after five years. Everything seems the same, except for "What is an iPod?". And this episode was before the iPhone became big and obviously before the iPad!

I'd probably like to cryo-freeze myself while still alive so I could skip ahead a few years or decades. But that tech doesn't exist yet, plus the next few years of Apple, Google, and Tech in general will be interesting. Just have to re-align my career because I'm coming out of a "coma" of sorts, eg. just realising I'm in my 30s now and partying all night till the sun comes up has become very tough!

However, I would definitely volunteer for Science if they could guarantee (well, promise) me I'd wake up alive and be one of the first few hundred colonists on Mars... We don't need to send our best and brightest, just the most brazen (or insane). Heck, we could send criminals and thieves, things worked out alright for Australia...
post #37 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

Then at that point I would still have considered it a device The analogy is inexact there anyway because the Lisa was running the same OS as the Mac and that OS could self-host. iOS cannot, in fact it's a deliberate decision by Apple to ensure that it never does.

Android at some point could become self-hosting though, or jail-borked iOS.

Hosting on a device like an iPhone or iPad seems foolish to me, but technically the iPad is one app away from being able to do so. It certainly should have the processor speed (it's dual core processor is as fast as some PCs were just a few years ago).
post #38 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by jnjnjn View Post

Doesn't change the fact.

J.

But creates a pile of stupidity by classifying the ipad under the same banner as a PC.

if the ipad fits under that cover, so should smart phones, and ipod touch.

Add them all in, or none.
Household: MacBook, iPad 16gb wifi, iPad 64gb wifi, iPad Mini 32gb, coming iPhone 5S, iPhone 4S 32gb, iPhone 32gb, iPod Touch 4th gen x1, iPod nano 16gb gen 5 x2, iPod nano gen 3 8gb, iPod classic...
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Household: MacBook, iPad 16gb wifi, iPad 64gb wifi, iPad Mini 32gb, coming iPhone 5S, iPhone 4S 32gb, iPhone 32gb, iPod Touch 4th gen x1, iPod nano 16gb gen 5 x2, iPod nano gen 3 8gb, iPod classic...
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