IDC bumps 2011 tablet forecast to 53M as Apple’s iPad 2 dominates - Page 2

Originally Posted by cloudgazer

I realize it's easy to assume that IDC is intentionally boosting Android/MS for nefarious or financial reasons, but it isn't necessarily the case. Back during my misspent youth as a physics grad student I took a course in cosmology, and I still remember how, on the very first day, the professor made several heroic assumptions about the universe. I remember a guy asking why we made these assumptions, and the professor replied that we had to, if we didn't we really couldn't get anywhere at all. The entire field of cosmology is built on these approximations and if the universe is radically different than that then we're just stuffed.

Often analysts end up making similarly huge assumptions, such as that product shipped is a good indication of product sold, or that Nokia will carry their market share over to WP7, and I suspect it's for the same reason. If they didn't make them then they wouldn't be able to do anything at all.

The really bad thing is when they make these huge assumptions and don't note it anywhere in the analysis.

Originally Posted by stelligent

So many people keep repeating the fallacy that the release of iPad 2 slowed the sales of iPad in Q1. The facts do not back that up. The official announcement of iPad 2 was March 2. It became available on March 11. By March, iPad sales was already soft compared to Christmas season. In fact, it was relatively soft all of Q1. You can argue anticipation of iPad 2 slowed sales of iPad (although this would be somewhat inconsistent with historic sales trends of iPhones and iPod Touch, which do tend to slow prior to the anticipated release of a new version but not always to a large degree), but you simply cannot say release of iPad 2 caused people to stop buying iPad.

I think a strong companion reason (along with anticipation for the new version) is that Apple slowed manufacturing of iPad to create capacity to produce iPad 2.

Originally Posted by stelligent

Did you even read what I wrote? Literacy is a wonderful tool, even for tools.

Originally Posted by Gatorguy

They may be selling better than many of us might expect. The Samsung Tab 10.1, Asus Transformer and Toshiba Thrive have ....... Informercial edited out...............

Originally Posted by Gatorguy

They may be selling better than many of us might expect. The Samsung Tab 10.1, Asus Transformer and Toshiba Thrive have iPad-equivalent or better hardware, more connectivity options, good build quality, comparable battery life, less expensive add-ons, and yet still manage to meet and/or significantly undercut Apple's iPad2 prices. Dedicated Apple fans may say they can't match the iOS experience. Buyers of those "other" tablets probably don't know that (or don't care if they do) considering the price/feature differences. And if you throw the Nook Color in there, which IMO serves the most common needs for most surfers and readers at just $249, and Apple's higher price is hard to justify for some buyers.

Originally Posted by Alfiejr

there is no question IDC provides paid services to MS, that's a fact. eg, see this EULA, search for "IDC". they provide financial info for a lot of MS services. i have to assume they get paid for that.

http://explore.live.com/microsoft-se...ement?ref=none

their conflict of interest is blatant. but web "journalism" ethics are so pathetic anyway that no on calls them out for it.

Originally Posted by brucep

55 million
wow thats a lot of ipads

9

Originally Posted by cloudgazer

Around half a square kilometer of screen.

Originally Posted by halfyearsun

I read what you wrote; it sucks.

While your point has merit, you were terribly obtuse and lacked any skill in forming an eloquent argument.

Eventually I figured out that you were saying it's impossible to say people held off on buying of the iPad because of an anticipated iPad 2, since it wasn't announced until March. I didnt follow that point until several posts later because there are plenty people who anticipated a new iPad and didn't need an announcement from apple to know it. Whether or not that was enough to soften sales, I don't care to argue.

And then there was the part where you referenced iPod sales trends and i couldn't decipher what your point was. And then the genius part where you said it can be argued that "anticipation" slowed sales, but it cannot be said that the "release" of the iPad 2 slowed sales. False dichotomy aside, if the iPad 2 was released and thus available, why would anyone argue that sales would decrease?

I don't care about your actual point and whether it was right or not. But between your poorly worded arguments and such grammatical gems as "...iPad 2 caused people to stop buying iPad." ( Which you said twice; Say iPads, or "the iPad"), you have no business being a pompous jerk who sarcastically declares others to be lacking in literacy.

Originally Posted by stelligent

So many people keep repeating the fallacy that the release of iPad 2 slowed the sales of iPad in Q1. The facts do not back that up. The official announcement of iPad 2 was March 2. It became available on March 11. By March, iPad sales was already soft compared to Christmas season. In fact, it was relatively soft all of Q1. You can argue anticipation of iPad 2 slowed sales of iPad (although this would be somewhat inconsistent with historic sales trends of iPhones and iPod Touch, which do tend to slow prior to the anticipated release of a new version but not always to a large degree), but you simply cannot say release of iPad 2 caused people to stop buying iPad.

I think a strong companion reason (along with anticipation for the new version) is that Apple slowed manufacturing of iPad to create capacity to produce iPad 2.

Originally Posted by jd_in_sb

Android tablets have a 34% market share? Perhaps in units shipped to stores but there is no way that is the percentage purchased by users. The real number is much smaller than that.

Originally Posted by Gatorguy

They may be selling better than many of us might expect. The Samsung Tab 10.1, Asus Transformer and Toshiba Thrive have iPad-equivalent or better hardware, more connectivity options, good build quality, comparable battery life, less expensive add-ons, and yet still manage to meet and/or significantly undercut Apple's iPad2 prices. Dedicated Apple fans may say they can't match the iOS experience. Buyers of those "other" tablets probably don't know that (or don't care if they do) considering the price/feature differences. And if you throw the Nook Color in there, which IMO serves the most common needs for most surfers and readers at just $249, and Apple's higher price is hard to justify for some buyers.

Originally Posted by cloudgazer

Link? The only model where I saw that happen clearly on the data I've seen was for the original model. The data in that graph is somewhat coarse though, so if you have something with finer granularity I'd be interested in seeing it. On this graph the IPhone-3 sales actually start to rise before the new model. The 3+3GS sales dip very slightly before the 4, but that could just be due to supply of 3s drying up.

Edit: deleted image - solipsism beat me to it

Originally Posted by melgross

The last call with RIM had them stating that they couldn't give that information because they "didn't have it with them". Sure. So they knew the numbers, but they didn't have the paper it was written on, so they didn't have it with them.

Originally Posted by melgross

Apple sent out notices to the press about an event that was known to be for the iPad, well in advance of the event itself. In addition, everyone knew that Apple would be coming out with a new tablet in March or April. Therefor, it's correct to assume the anticipation of the new tablet surprised sales of the old one.

In addition, Cook stated that they had trouble meeting demand.

Originally Posted by cloudgazer

I realize it's easy to assume that IDC is intentionally boosting Android/MS for nefarious or financial reasons, but it isn't necessarily the case. Back during my misspent youth as a physics grad student I took a course in cosmology, and I still remember how, on the very first day, the professor made several heroic assumptions about the universe. I remember a guy asking why we made these assumptions, and the professor replied that we had to, if we didn't we really couldn't get anywhere at all. The entire field of cosmology is built on these approximations and if the universe is radically different than that then we're just stuffed.

Often analysts end up making similarly huge assumptions, such as that product shipped is a good indication of product sold, or that Nokia will carry their market share over to WP7, and I suspect it's for the same reason. If they didn't make them then they wouldn't be able to do anything at all.

The really bad thing is when they make these huge assumptions and don't note it anywhere in the analysis.

Originally Posted by stelligent

Apple sent the invitation roughly a week before March 2, not well in advance. But yes, there was great anticipation. How much did that suppress sales?

Let's look at 2010 - In the quarter ending in March, Apple sold 8.75M iPhones. In the quarter ending in June (very close to announcement of iPhone 4), they sold 8.5M iPhones. Everyone "anticipates" iPod renewal every September. So iPod sales should dip in the July-August period, right? In 2010, Apple sold 9.4M iPods from Apr to June, followed by 9.1M in the following quarter.

So where was the sales dip attributed to "anticipation" of new versions?

In comparison, iPad sales dropped from over 7M to 4.7M from end of 2010 to first quarter of 2011 (while iPhone sales actually rose from 16M to 18.7M). In the face of these numbers, I am open to hearing reasonable arguments about how anticipation or any other phenomenon explaining the drop in iPad sales.

And, there is now great anticipation about iPad 3 in September, not to mention iPhone 5. I wonder if sales of iPhone 4 and iPad 2 are dropping like a stone?

Originally Posted by stelligent

Wow, so cute. Where do I start? Well, we will leave the small stuff alone and just point out that you have misused the term "false dichotomy". Very ironic, given your little lecture on how I don't have the right to mock others for lacking in literacy. Very cute and ironic. Tee hee ...

Originally Posted by nvidia2008

Oh, I'm sure all the RIM executives on the conference call had the exact sell through figures in their heads, burning a hole in their collective consciousness. "Didn't have it"? An absolute lie that should be an illegal business practice.

Originally Posted by melgross

You're missing a few things. Sales did fall, as the numbers you present show. But sales of the new models, often arriving in the middle of the final month of the quarter pick those sales up quickly.

Originally Posted by melgross

But parts were very constrained for the iPad2 as Cook made very clear, so very little product was available. Estimates were that Apple could have sold at least a million more during the quarter, maybe more.

Originally Posted by melgross

Everyone knew that Apple was coming out with a new tablet no later than April, and likely in March. Why in March? Because last year, the original iPad was scheduled to come out in March, but Apple moved it back a month because of much higher demand than anticipated. Remember how they ran out of preorders so soon? Therefor, it was expected in March of this year.

Originally Posted by melgross

Pretty simple stuff, and those of us who have been observing Apple for some time understand it.

Originally Posted by halfyearsun


Regardless, you can dissect whether it's appropriately a "false dichotomy" or a "straw-man fallacy" or whatever term you picked up from Philosophy 101, but you're still diverting (red herring?) from my point.

Originally Posted by halfyearsun


Nobody suggested that once the iPad 2 was released, sales dropped.

Originally Posted by halfyearsun

You know what? I'll go ahead and concede that I misappropriated the term "false dichotomy."

Originally Posted by stelligent



Actually, someone did. You shouldn't call them "nobody". Not nice.

Originally Posted by stelligent

You can argue anticipation of iPad 2 slowed sales of iPad ...but you simply cannot say release of iPad 2 caused people to stop buying iPad.

Originally Posted by stelligent

Did you even read what I wrote? Literacy is a wonderful tool, even for tools.

Originally Posted by stelligent


Name-calling simply suggests you're losing the argument and are a poor loser to boot. You look like a bigger person by admitting you are wrong

Originally Posted by cloudgazer

As good or better?

Weight 130g more.
Depth 16mm to the iPad-2s 9mm

The CPU, memory etc are comparable I'll grant you, but the physical specs are way way worse. The only Android tablet that genuinely competes right now on specs is the 10.1 Samsung.

Originally Posted by stelligent

Perhaps it's time to keep to simpler words because you seem to have trouble with those consisting of more than 3 syllables. And the irony of you calling me out for being a poor writer just keeps growing.

Originally Posted by nikon133

And you think no one would buy device based on features (vs. design)? Personally I'm finding file manager, capability to access files and media over the network (without iTunes) and, to some extend, Flash, more handy than weight and thickness.

Originally Posted by cloudgazer

It looks like the process started to bite in late Feb, so we're still left with a seasonal drop in addition, or perhaps more accurately a seasonal spike in the prior quarter.

Originally Posted by cloudgazer

you just made my night

As you said earlier, the drop in iPad sales from Jan->Mar11 was due in large order to Apple cutting off supply way ahead of the refresh.

Originally Posted by stelligent

... the release of iPad 2 slowed the sales of iPad... You can argue anticipation of iPad 2 slowed sales of iPad... release of iPad 2 caused people to stop buying iPad.

Originally Posted by stelligent

Therein lies your problem. If you had taken English 101 instead of Philosophy 101, you would have fewer problems with the language. Not too late.

Originally Posted by halfyearsun

.......

Originally Posted by cloudgazer

Actually I rather imagine that they really didn't have it, which in many ways is worse. Apple has far far more control over its channel than RIM, and Apple also seems to be far far better run.

I imagine Steve Jobs can go over to his computer and get an immediate global management view that includes 90% of Apple's sales channel's figures on a day to day basis. I'm willing to bet Tweedledum+Tweedledee over at RIM have to get such numbers produced specially.

Originally Posted by stelligent

iPhone 4 announcement was in July and so sales of this new version did not start until after then. So, anticipation of a new phone had little effect on iPhone 3GS sales in the preceding quarter.

A million more would put them at 5M+, still a disappointing total.

You are saying millions of people around the world stopped buying iPad 1 because they were absolutely sure iPad 2 was coming out in March. Yet millions keep buying iPhones and iPods even when they anticipate a new version. Good luck with that logic.

That's self-congratulatory backslapping (unjustified) and not a rational argument.

I think it's important to analyze the facts and figures, before forming a conclusion. Instead, you stick to a pre-formed conclusion and keep trying to twist facts around it. It just doesn't work.

Originally Posted by melgross

You are kidding. It's pretty common knowledge that Apple came up with a new phone the same time every year. That's why things are so much in a tousle, because Apple did something different.

Most everyone knew that Apple would have a new phone then. It certainly wasn't a secret.



A million more would have had them at 5.5 million. Still a bit down, but not very far, and estimates were that it could have been 1.5 million, so we would be up to 6 million which was within range of a number of analysts. In addition, that's the slowest quarter of the year, coming off the busiest.



I don't have to say it, it's a well known thing, and has been written about over the years to death.

You don't actually read everything that is being posted before responding, do you? I've already explained that. I'll do it one more time for you. Both iPods and iPhones tend to be in pretty good supply after being introduced, maybe not as many as needed, but pretty close. So the sales of the new units, which jump spectacularly when they first come out, tend to cover much of the drop in sales from those waiting for them.

That didn't happen with the iPad, because of the "mother of backorders" or whatever it was that Cook stated was the reason for the smaller sales of the iPod 2.

We know they had some problems getting screens, because of a problem with them. I believe there was another part shortage as well, but I don't remember which part.



It's also true, as most people will tell you.



I agree, but you aren't analyzing the facts, you're ignoring them for a Pre formed opinion.

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

On the e-reader side, Barnes & Nobles Nook Color dethroned Amazons Kindle to become the top-selling e-reader for the first time.

Originally Posted by BestKeptSecret

How do they get the numbers for e-readers when all the reports I have read so far mention that Amazon never releases sales figures of the Kindle. Since there is no third-party seller/ retailer, how does someone figure out how many Kindles have been sold?

Originally Posted by Gatorguy

They may be selling better than many of us might expect. The Samsung Tab 10.1, Asus Transformer and Toshiba Thrive have iPad-equivalent or better hardware, more connectivity options, good build quality, comparable battery life, less expensive add-ons, and yet still manage to meet and/or significantly undercut Apple's iPad2 prices. Dedicated Apple fans may say they can't match the iOS experience. Buyers of those "other" tablets probably don't know that (or don't care if they do) considering the price/feature differences. And if you throw the Nook Color in there, which IMO serves the most common needs for most surfers and readers at just $249, and Apple's higher price is hard to justify for some buyers.

Originally Posted by stelligent

That would be my guess too, except iPhone sales actually rose from the Christmas quarter to the 1st Q of 2011 (or what Apple calls Q2). This is why I continue to find that dip in iPad sales interesting.



That's the only sound argument I can think of so far. After all, it would be hard to build millions of iPads and iPad 2's at the same time.

Originally Posted by stelligent

Wow, you really don't understand, do you? And I thought you were just pretending to not get it.

Originally Posted by stelligent

That would be my guess too, except iPhone sales actually rose from the Christmas quarter to the 1st Q of 2011 (or what Apple calls Q2). This is why I continue to find that dip in iPad sales interesting.

Originally Posted by BestKeptSecret

How do they get the numbers for e-readers when all the reports I have read so far mention that Amazon never releases sales figures of the Kindle. Since there is no third-party seller/ retailer, how does someone figure out how many Kindles have been sold?

Originally Posted by myapplelove

That is Probably the most inaccurate misleading post in a long time...

Originally Posted by anantksundaram

Please stop. You're spouting nonsense at this point.

Or just go away. Thanks.