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IDC bumps 2011 tablet forecast to 53M as Apple’s iPad 2 dominates - Page 2

post #41 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

I realize it's easy to assume that IDC is intentionally boosting Android/MS for nefarious or financial reasons, but it isn't necessarily the case. Back during my misspent youth as a physics grad student I took a course in cosmology, and I still remember how, on the very first day, the professor made several heroic assumptions about the universe. I remember a guy asking why we made these assumptions, and the professor replied that we had to, if we didn't we really couldn't get anywhere at all. The entire field of cosmology is built on these approximations and if the universe is radically different than that then we're just stuffed.

Often analysts end up making similarly huge assumptions, such as that product shipped is a good indication of product sold, or that Nokia will carry their market share over to WP7, and I suspect it's for the same reason. If they didn't make them then they wouldn't be able to do anything at all.

The really bad thing is when they make these huge assumptions and don't note it anywhere in the analysis.

there is no question IDC provides paid services to MS, that's a fact. eg, see this EULA, search for "IDC". they provide financial info for a lot of MS services. i have to assume they get paid for that.

http://explore.live.com/microsoft-se...ement?ref=none

their conflict of interest is blatant. but web "journalism" ethics are so pathetic anyway that no on calls them out for it.
post #42 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

So many people keep repeating the fallacy that the release of iPad 2 slowed the sales of iPad in Q1. The facts do not back that up. The official announcement of iPad 2 was March 2. It became available on March 11. By March, iPad sales was already soft compared to Christmas season. In fact, it was relatively soft all of Q1. You can argue anticipation of iPad 2 slowed sales of iPad (although this would be somewhat inconsistent with historic sales trends of iPhones and iPod Touch, which do tend to slow prior to the anticipated release of a new version but not always to a large degree), but you simply cannot say release of iPad 2 caused people to stop buying iPad.

I think a strong companion reason (along with anticipation for the new version) is that Apple slowed manufacturing of iPad to create capacity to produce iPad 2.

Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

Did you even read what I wrote? Literacy is a wonderful tool, even for tools.

I read what you wrote; it sucks.

While your point has merit, you were terribly obtuse and lacked any skill in forming an eloquent argument.

Eventually I figured out that you were saying it's impossible to say people held off on buying of the iPad because of an anticipated iPad 2, since it wasn't announced until March. I didnt follow that point until several posts later because there are plenty people who anticipated a new iPad and didn't need an announcement from apple to know it. Whether or not that was enough to soften sales, I don't care to argue.

And then there was the part where you referenced iPod sales trends and i couldn't decipher what your point was. And then the genius part where you said it can be argued that "anticipation" slowed sales, but it cannot be said that the "release" of the iPad 2 slowed sales. False dichotomy aside, if the iPad 2 was released and thus available, why would anyone argue that sales would decrease?

I don't care about your actual point and whether it was right or not. But between your poorly worded arguments and such grammatical gems as "...iPad 2 caused people to stop buying iPad." ( Which you said twice; Say iPads, or "the iPad"), you have no business being a pompous jerk who sarcastically declares others to be lacking in literacy.
post #43 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

They may be selling better than many of us might expect. The Samsung Tab 10.1, Asus Transformer and Toshiba Thrive have ....... Informercial edited out...............

None of which were even for sale in Q1.
post #44 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

They may be selling better than many of us might expect. The Samsung Tab 10.1, Asus Transformer and Toshiba Thrive have iPad-equivalent or better hardware, more connectivity options, good build quality, comparable battery life, less expensive add-ons, and yet still manage to meet and/or significantly undercut Apple's iPad2 prices. Dedicated Apple fans may say they can't match the iOS experience. Buyers of those "other" tablets probably don't know that (or don't care if they do) considering the price/feature differences. And if you throw the Nook Color in there, which IMO serves the most common needs for most surfers and readers at just $249, and Apple's higher price is hard to justify for some buyers.

Yeah, in someone's dream world.

If/when they (anyone!) put out actual numbers sold, then this is worthy of further discussion.
post #45 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alfiejr View Post

there is no question IDC provides paid services to MS, that's a fact. eg, see this EULA, search for "IDC". they provide financial info for a lot of MS services. i have to assume they get paid for that.

http://explore.live.com/microsoft-se...ement?ref=none

their conflict of interest is blatant. but web "journalism" ethics are so pathetic anyway that no on calls them out for it.

Ok - this is interesting those are market quotes provided by IDC - Interactive Data Corporation, which is owned by Warburg Pincus and Silverlake Partners.

Wiki:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interac...ta_Corporation
Website: http://www.interactivedata.com/

This was a survey conducted by IDC - International Data Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of International Data Group - and a completely different company.

Wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interna...ta_Corporation
Website: http://www.idc.com/

It's confusing though I'll grant you. This rather plays to my point though of how easy it is to jump to conclusions that badness is going down, when in fact it's just everyday incompetence.
post #46 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by brucep View Post

55 million
wow thats a lot of ipads

9

Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

Around half a square kilometer of screen.

Er... 55 million is IDC's estimate of *all* tablets sold in 2011.

Based on my previous estimates, iPad 1 + 2 + 2S/3/whatever sold in 2011 will be 40-45 million*, at the very max 50 million. Placing iPad around the 80% mark of tablets sold in 2011 (45 million out of 55 million), which sounds roughly about right, possibly a bit low.

Admittedly since all these other crapblet players aren't willing to release any real sell-through figures iPad dominance could end the year at 90% or so in reality.


*My estimated iPad sales by calendar quarter 2011:
Q1 : 4 million
Q2 : 7 million
Q3 : 15 million
Q4 : 18 million
Total : 44 million
post #47 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by halfyearsun View Post

I read what you wrote; it sucks.

While your point has merit, you were terribly obtuse and lacked any skill in forming an eloquent argument.

Eventually I figured out that you were saying it's impossible to say people held off on buying of the iPad because of an anticipated iPad 2, since it wasn't announced until March. I didnt follow that point until several posts later because there are plenty people who anticipated a new iPad and didn't need an announcement from apple to know it. Whether or not that was enough to soften sales, I don't care to argue.

And then there was the part where you referenced iPod sales trends and i couldn't decipher what your point was. And then the genius part where you said it can be argued that "anticipation" slowed sales, but it cannot be said that the "release" of the iPad 2 slowed sales. False dichotomy aside, if the iPad 2 was released and thus available, why would anyone argue that sales would decrease?

I don't care about your actual point and whether it was right or not. But between your poorly worded arguments and such grammatical gems as "...iPad 2 caused people to stop buying iPad." ( Which you said twice; Say iPads, or "the iPad"), you have no business being a pompous jerk who sarcastically declares others to be lacking in literacy.

Wow, so cute. Where do I start? Well, we will leave the small stuff alone and just point out that you have misused the term "false dichotomy". Very ironic, given your little lecture on how I don't have the right to mock others for lacking in literacy. Very cute and ironic. Tee hee ...
post #48 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

So many people keep repeating the fallacy that the release of iPad 2 slowed the sales of iPad in Q1. The facts do not back that up. The official announcement of iPad 2 was March 2. It became available on March 11. By March, iPad sales was already soft compared to Christmas season. In fact, it was relatively soft all of Q1. You can argue anticipation of iPad 2 slowed sales of iPad (although this would be somewhat inconsistent with historic sales trends of iPhones and iPod Touch, which do tend to slow prior to the anticipated release of a new version but not always to a large degree), but you simply cannot say release of iPad 2 caused people to stop buying iPad.

I think a strong companion reason (along with anticipation for the new version) is that Apple slowed manufacturing of iPad to create capacity to produce iPad 2.

Apple sent out notices to the press about an event that was known to be for the iPad, well in advance of the event itself. In addition, everyone knew that Apple would be coming out with a new tablet in March or April. Therefor, it's correct to assume the anticipation of the new tablet surprised sales of the old one.

In addition, Cook stated that they had trouble meeting demand.
post #49 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by jd_in_sb View Post

Android tablets have a 34% market share? Perhaps in units shipped to stores but there is no way that is the percentage purchased by users. The real number is much smaller than that.

This is a problem Apple has to deal with. The conception that shipped equals sales is false.

Shipped means out of the factory, and on the loading dock to the train to take them to the coast, where they will be loaded on to a freighter.

It's interesting that all other manufacturers, except Apple, who has made it very clear that sold means in the hands of the final end user, refuse to state how many they've sold, even when asked directly. In analysts calls, which are considered to be a legal financial document, their refusal to give that information often borders on the illegal, but not quite. The last call with RIM had them stating that they couldn't give that information because they "didn't have it with them". Sure. So they knew the numbers, but they didn't have the paper it was written on, so they didn't have it with them.

My estimate is that Apple sold closer to 85% of the tablets second quarter.
post #50 of 85
Again, I always try and suggest a global view of things. In this case, everyone arguing about the low iPad figures in calendar Q1 are mostly correct.

Yes, in countries where iPad 1 was launched for quite some time would experience some drop in demand with the announcement and waiting for the iPad 2.

However keep in mind that in such countries even the iPad 1 was constrained in the post-holiday season, and extremely constrained or not yet launched in many other countries where Macs are available.

iPad 1 was also ramped down sharply to ramp up iPad 2, thus reducing iPad 1 supply and holding off iPad 1 launches in various countries until iPad 2 came out. Apple could have "padded" some countries with continued iPad 1 production while iPad 2 was gradually rolled out but Apple rarely does this. The iPad 2 launched in the US early March and a very limited set of countries in late March. That means with iPad 1 ramping down, most countries would have virtually sold out of iPad 1 by the last few weeks of March ie. no iPad to buy whatsoever.

Top this off with iPad 2 being virtually impossible to obtain in March 2011 due to limited supply and you have the "perfect storm" of "disappointing" iPad sales in calendar Q1.
post #51 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

They may be selling better than many of us might expect. The Samsung Tab 10.1, Asus Transformer and Toshiba Thrive have iPad-equivalent or better hardware, more connectivity options, good build quality, comparable battery life, less expensive add-ons, and yet still manage to meet and/or significantly undercut Apple's iPad2 prices. Dedicated Apple fans may say they can't match the iOS experience. Buyers of those "other" tablets probably don't know that (or don't care if they do) considering the price/feature differences. And if you throw the Nook Color in there, which IMO serves the most common needs for most surfers and readers at just $249, and Apple's higher price is hard to justify for some buyers.

Forget Apple fans. Every single review of all of those tablets say that they can't recommend them over an iPad. They say that in the future, if this and that works out, they may be able to recommend them, but who knows if that will happen?

None of those tablets you mentioned are better, or equal in any way that matters.
post #52 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

Link? The only model where I saw that happen clearly on the data I've seen was for the original model. The data in that graph is somewhat coarse though, so if you have something with finer granularity I'd be interested in seeing it. On this graph the IPhone-3 sales actually start to rise before the new model. The 3+3GS sales dip very slightly before the 4, but that could just be due to supply of 3s drying up.

Edit: deleted image - solipsism beat me to it

Apple had said that phone sales the quarter before were higher than anticipated, and so they actually ran out of phones, until the new model came out in the third quarter.
post #53 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

The last call with RIM had them stating that they couldn't give that information because they "didn't have it with them". Sure. So they knew the numbers, but they didn't have the paper it was written on, so they didn't have it with them.

Oh, I'm sure all the RIM executives on the conference call had the exact sell through figures in their heads, burning a hole in their collective consciousness. "Didn't have it"? An absolute lie that should be an illegal business practice.

Their most hyped up project in the companies history, the saviour that would lead RIM out of stagnation to greater heights, and they don't have the sell through numbers to boast about?

Bottom line is the Playbook was a dismal an abject failure that nobody high up at RIM is even willing to talk about. All we've gotten since is literally incoherent babbling from the co-CEOs.
post #54 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Apple sent out notices to the press about an event that was known to be for the iPad, well in advance of the event itself. In addition, everyone knew that Apple would be coming out with a new tablet in March or April. Therefor, it's correct to assume the anticipation of the new tablet surprised sales of the old one.

In addition, Cook stated that they had trouble meeting demand.

Apple sent the invitation roughly a week before March 2, not well in advance. But yes, there was great anticipation. How much did that suppress sales?

Let's look at 2010 - In the quarter ending in March, Apple sold 8.75M iPhones. In the quarter ending in June (very close to announcement of iPhone 4), they sold 8.5M iPhones. Everyone "anticipates" iPod renewal every September. So iPod sales should dip in the July-August period, right? In 2010, Apple sold 9.4M iPods from Apr to June, followed by 9.1M in the following quarter.

So where was the sales dip attributed to "anticipation" of new versions?

In comparison, iPad sales dropped from over 7M to 4.7M from end of 2010 to first quarter of 2011 (while iPhone sales actually rose from 16M to 18.7M). In the face of these numbers, I am open to hearing reasonable arguments about how anticipation or any other phenomenon explaining the drop in iPad sales at the beginning of 2011.

And, there is now great anticipation about iPad 3 in September, not to mention iPhone 5. I wonder if sales of iPhone 4 and iPad 2 are dropping like a stone?
post #55 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

I realize it's easy to assume that IDC is intentionally boosting Android/MS for nefarious or financial reasons, but it isn't necessarily the case. Back during my misspent youth as a physics grad student I took a course in cosmology, and I still remember how, on the very first day, the professor made several heroic assumptions about the universe. I remember a guy asking why we made these assumptions, and the professor replied that we had to, if we didn't we really couldn't get anywhere at all. The entire field of cosmology is built on these approximations and if the universe is radically different than that then we're just stuffed.

Often analysts end up making similarly huge assumptions, such as that product shipped is a good indication of product sold, or that Nokia will carry their market share over to WP7, and I suspect it's for the same reason. If they didn't make them then they wouldn't be able to do anything at all.

The really bad thing is when they make these huge assumptions and don't note it anywhere in the analysis.

One problem is when they take the marketing department's numbers going forward as being real, which they often do. All too many times I read a piece where it's stated that the manufacturer is coming up with a new model that will fill the hole in their line-up, and result in 20% more sales, which is dutifully reported upon as being a real number.

Of course, in cases like Nokia, where sales are falling off much faster than anticipated, none of these numbers may matter. The other problem is that analysts often don't consider demand. So when a company states that they will be able to increase production by 50%, they assume that sales will go up by that much, without any evidence that the potential customer actually wants the product.

So we see the numbers that both IDC and Gartner produce. Do they research if all of these people will want WP7 Nokia phones? No, they just assume they will.

I'd like to see their five year projections from 2005 through 2009. It should be good for a laugh.
post #56 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

Apple sent the invitation roughly a week before March 2, not well in advance. But yes, there was great anticipation. How much did that suppress sales?

Let's look at 2010 - In the quarter ending in March, Apple sold 8.75M iPhones. In the quarter ending in June (very close to announcement of iPhone 4), they sold 8.5M iPhones. Everyone "anticipates" iPod renewal every September. So iPod sales should dip in the July-August period, right? In 2010, Apple sold 9.4M iPods from Apr to June, followed by 9.1M in the following quarter.

So where was the sales dip attributed to "anticipation" of new versions?

In comparison, iPad sales dropped from over 7M to 4.7M from end of 2010 to first quarter of 2011 (while iPhone sales actually rose from 16M to 18.7M). In the face of these numbers, I am open to hearing reasonable arguments about how anticipation or any other phenomenon explaining the drop in iPad sales.

And, there is now great anticipation about iPad 3 in September, not to mention iPhone 5. I wonder if sales of iPhone 4 and iPad 2 are dropping like a stone?

You're missing a few things. Sales did fall, as the numbers you present show. But sales of the new models, often arriving in the middle of the final month of the quarter pick those sales up quickly.

But parts were very constrained for the iPad2 as Cook made very clear, so very little product was available. Estimates were that Apple could have sold at least a million more during the quarter, maybe more.

Everyone knew that Apple was coming out with a new tablet no later than April, and likely in March. Why in March? Because last year, the original iPad was scheduled to come out in March, but Apple moved it back a month because of much higher demand than anticipated. Remember how they ran out of preorders so soon? Therefor, it was expected in March of this year.

Pretty simple stuff, and those of us who have been observing Apple for some time understand it.
post #57 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

Wow, so cute. Where do I start? Well, we will leave the small stuff alone and just point out that you have misused the term "false dichotomy". Very ironic, given your little lecture on how I don't have the right to mock others for lacking in literacy. Very cute and ironic. Tee hee ...

Yes, you mentioned cute and ironic. www.thesaurus.com

Condescension aside, while it's not a prototypical example of the "False Dichotomy Logical Fallacy," you improperly separated a single issue in two. Perhaps I used the term "false dichotomy" too loosely.

"You can argue anticipation of iPad 2 slowed sales of iPad ... but you simply cannot say release of iPad 2 caused people to stop buying iPad."

Nobody suggested that once the iPad 2 was released, sales dropped.

Regardless, you can dissect whether it's appropriately a "false dichotomy" or a "straw-man fallacy" or whatever term you picked up from Philosophy 101, but you're still diverting (red herring?) from my point.

You know what? I'll go ahead and concede that I misappropriated the term "false dichotomy." You still can't write clearly, and you're still an a**
post #58 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

Oh, I'm sure all the RIM executives on the conference call had the exact sell through figures in their heads, burning a hole in their collective consciousness. "Didn't have it"? An absolute lie that should be an illegal business practice.

Actually I rather imagine that they really didn't have it, which in many ways is worse. Apple has far far more control over its channel than RIM, and Apple also seems to be far far better run.

I imagine Steve Jobs can go over to his computer and get an immediate global management view that includes 90% of Apple's sales channel's figures on a day to day basis. I'm willing to bet Tweedledum+Tweedledee over at RIM have to get such numbers produced specially.
post #59 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

You're missing a few things. Sales did fall, as the numbers you present show. But sales of the new models, often arriving in the middle of the final month of the quarter pick those sales up quickly.

iPhone 4 announcement was in July and so sales of this new version did not start until after then. So, anticipation of a new phone had little effect on iPhone 3GS sales in the preceding quarter.

Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

But parts were very constrained for the iPad2 as Cook made very clear, so very little product was available. Estimates were that Apple could have sold at least a million more during the quarter, maybe more.

A million more would put them at 5M+, still a disappointing total.

Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Everyone knew that Apple was coming out with a new tablet no later than April, and likely in March. Why in March? Because last year, the original iPad was scheduled to come out in March, but Apple moved it back a month because of much higher demand than anticipated. Remember how they ran out of preorders so soon? Therefor, it was expected in March of this year.

You are saying millions of people around the world stopped buying iPad 1 because they were absolutely sure iPad 2 was coming out in March. Yet millions keep buying iPhones and iPods even when they anticipate a new version. Good luck with that logic.

Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Pretty simple stuff, and those of us who have been observing Apple for some time understand it.

That's self-congratulatory backslapping (unjustified) and not a rational argument.

I think it's important to analyze the facts and figures, before forming a conclusion. Instead, you stick to a pre-formed conclusion and keep trying to twist facts around it. It just doesn't work.
post #60 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by halfyearsun View Post


Regardless, you can dissect whether it's appropriately a "false dichotomy" or a "straw-man fallacy" or whatever term you picked up from Philosophy 101, but you're still diverting (red herring?) from my point.

Therein lies your problem. If you had taken English 101 instead of Philosophy 101, you would have fewer problems with the language. Not too late.

Quote:
Originally Posted by halfyearsun View Post


Nobody suggested that once the iPad 2 was released, sales dropped.

Actually, someone did. You shouldn't call them "nobody". Not nice.

Quote:
Originally Posted by halfyearsun View Post

You know what? I'll go ahead and concede that I misappropriated the term "false dichotomy."

You didn't misappropriate the term; you misunderstood its meaning and used it in the wrong context. Perhaps it's time to keep to simpler words because you seem to have trouble with those consisting of more than 3 syllables. And the irony of you calling me out for being a poor writer just keeps growing.

In all honesty, why don't you just relax? Name-calling simply suggests you're losing the argument and are a poor loser to boot. You look like a bigger person by admitting you are wrong
post #61 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post



Actually, someone did. You shouldn't call them "nobody". Not nice.

I believe this is the "someone" you're referring to, since you quoted it.

"Originally Posted by irnchriz
The iPad figures were low for the first quarter of 2011 due to the release of the iPad 2 which slowed device sales prior to it's release..."

Emphasis mine.

Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

You can argue anticipation of iPad 2 slowed sales of iPad ...but you simply cannot say release of iPad 2 caused people to stop buying iPad.



They suggested that anticipation of the new iPad slowed sales, not that sales slowed after its release, which is the point of contention you created.


Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

Did you even read what I wrote? Literacy is a wonderful tool, even for tools.

Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post


Name-calling simply suggests you're losing the argument and are a poor loser to boot. You look like a bigger person by admitting you are wrong
post #62 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

As good or better?

Weight 130g more.
Depth 16mm to the iPad-2s 9mm

The CPU, memory etc are comparable I'll grant you, but the physical specs are way way worse. The only Android tablet that genuinely competes right now on specs is the 10.1 Samsung.

And you think no one would buy device based on features (vs. design)? Personally I'm finding file manager, capability to access files and media over the network (without iTunes) and, to some extend, Flash, more handy than weight and thickness.
post #63 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

Perhaps it's time to keep to simpler words because you seem to have trouble with those consisting of more than 3 syllables. And the irony of you calling me out for being a poor writer just keeps growing.

you just made my night

As you said earlier, the drop in iPad sales from Jan->Mar11 was due in large order to Apple cutting off supply way ahead of the refresh.

http://9to5mac.com/2011/02/21/ipad-2...ean-retailers/

It looks like the process started to bite in late Feb, so we're still left with a seasonal drop in addition, or perhaps more accurately a seasonal spike in the prior quarter.
post #64 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by nikon133 View Post

And you think no one would buy device based on features (vs. design)? Personally I'm finding file manager, capability to access files and media over the network (without iTunes) and, to some extend, Flash, more handy than weight and thickness.

Possibly, but I'm finding it hard to see why they'd by a Thrive over a Samsung 10.1. If they really care about those features, then logically they'd go for the tablet that had them and a good build quality, rather than the one which didn't.

In fact if you need file system, network, and flash more than you need low weight or sleek formfactor - you would probably be better off with a laptop.
post #65 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

It looks like the process started to bite in late Feb, so we're still left with a seasonal drop in addition, or perhaps more accurately a seasonal spike in the prior quarter.

That would be my guess too, except iPhone sales actually rose from the Christmas quarter to the 1st Q of 2011 (or what Apple calls Q2). This is why I continue to find that dip in iPad sales interesting.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

you just made my night

As you said earlier, the drop in iPad sales from Jan->Mar11 was due in large order to Apple cutting off supply way ahead of the refresh.

That's the only sound argument I can think of so far. After all, it would be hard to build millions of iPads and iPad 2's at the same time.
post #66 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

... the release of iPad 2 slowed the sales of iPad... You can argue anticipation of iPad 2 slowed sales of iPad... release of iPad 2 caused people to stop buying iPad.

.......
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

Therein lies your problem. If you had taken English 101 instead of Philosophy 101, you would have fewer problems with the language. Not too late.
post #67 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by halfyearsun View Post

.......

post #68 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

Actually I rather imagine that they really didn't have it, which in many ways is worse. Apple has far far more control over its channel than RIM, and Apple also seems to be far far better run.

I imagine Steve Jobs can go over to his computer and get an immediate global management view that includes 90% of Apple's sales channel's figures on a day to day basis. I'm willing to bet Tweedledum+Tweedledee over at RIM have to get such numbers produced specially.

Oh, I'm sure they had a very good idea of how many sold. Not to the unit, but close enough.

"you shipped 500,000, how many of those were sold?"

"well, we don't have exact numbers yet, but approximately 250,000."

That would have been fine, as no one gives exact numbers during these calls as we can see by the 500,000 shipped number. No way that was exact. I guarantee they get numbers on a weekly basic, or at worst, a monthly one. They must. The reason why the call is made so far after the quarterly period is over is to get all the numbers and correlate them.

As you say, if they didn't have them, that would be even worse. But I don't see how they couldn't.
post #69 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

iPhone 4 announcement was in July and so sales of this new version did not start until after then. So, anticipation of a new phone had little effect on iPhone 3GS sales in the preceding quarter.

You are kidding. It's pretty common knowledge that Apple came up with a new phone the same time every year. That's why things are so much in a tousle, because Apple did something different.

Most everyone knew that Apple would have a new phone then. It certainly wasn't a secret.

Quote:
A million more would put them at 5M+, still a disappointing total.

A million more would have had them at 5.5 million. Still a bit down, but not very far, and estimates were that it could have been 1.5 million, so we would be up to 6 million which was within range of a number of analysts. In addition, that's the slowest quarter of the year, coming off the busiest.

Quote:
You are saying millions of people around the world stopped buying iPad 1 because they were absolutely sure iPad 2 was coming out in March. Yet millions keep buying iPhones and iPods even when they anticipate a new version. Good luck with that logic.

I don't have to say it, it's a well known thing, and has been written about over the years to death.

You don't actually read everything that is being posted before responding, do you? I've already explained that. I'll do it one more time for you. Both iPods and iPhones tend to be in pretty good supply after being introduced, maybe not as many as needed, but pretty close. So the sales of the new units, which jump spectacularly when they first come out, tend to cover much of the drop in sales from those waiting for them.

That didn't happen with the iPad, because of the "mother of backorders" or whatever it was that Cook stated was the reason for the smaller sales of the iPod 2.

We know they had some problems getting screens, because of a problem with them. I believe there was another part shortage as well, but I don't remember which part.

Quote:
That's self-congratulatory backslapping (unjustified) and not a rational argument.

It's also true, as most people will tell you.

Quote:
I think it's important to analyze the facts and figures, before forming a conclusion. Instead, you stick to a pre-formed conclusion and keep trying to twist facts around it. It just doesn't work.

I agree, but you aren't analyzing the facts, you're ignoring them for a Pre formed opinion.
post #70 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

You are kidding. It's pretty common knowledge that Apple came up with a new phone the same time every year. That's why things are so much in a tousle, because Apple did something different.

Most everyone knew that Apple would have a new phone then. It certainly wasn't a secret.



A million more would have had them at 5.5 million. Still a bit down, but not very far, and estimates were that it could have been 1.5 million, so we would be up to 6 million which was within range of a number of analysts. In addition, that's the slowest quarter of the year, coming off the busiest.



I don't have to say it, it's a well known thing, and has been written about over the years to death.

You don't actually read everything that is being posted before responding, do you? I've already explained that. I'll do it one more time for you. Both iPods and iPhones tend to be in pretty good supply after being introduced, maybe not as many as needed, but pretty close. So the sales of the new units, which jump spectacularly when they first come out, tend to cover much of the drop in sales from those waiting for them.

That didn't happen with the iPad, because of the "mother of backorders" or whatever it was that Cook stated was the reason for the smaller sales of the iPod 2.

We know they had some problems getting screens, because of a problem with them. I believe there was another part shortage as well, but I don't remember which part.



It's also true, as most people will tell you.



I agree, but you aren't analyzing the facts, you're ignoring them for a Pre formed opinion.

Wow, you really don't understand, do you? And I thought you were just pretending to not get it.
post #71 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

On the e-reader side, Barnes & Nobles Nook Color dethroned Amazons Kindle to become the top-selling e-reader for the first time.

How do they get the numbers for e-readers when all the reports I have read so far mention that Amazon never releases sales figures of the Kindle. Since there is no third-party seller/ retailer, how does someone figure out how many Kindles have been sold?
post #72 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by BestKeptSecret View Post

How do they get the numbers for e-readers when all the reports I have read so far mention that Amazon never releases sales figures of the Kindle. Since there is no third-party seller/ retailer, how does someone figure out how many Kindles have been sold?

Good question. Poor guess-timates. Analysts guess. People here guess based on those guesses. So, no one really knows the real facts, which is why there are so many disagreements. Easier to be self-righteous when it appears hard to use real facts to refute your stand.

Sometimes, analysts talk to "insiders" who may be employees working for one of the supply chain companies. They get the dope of the size of the latest shipment of, say, e-ink screens to Amazon and make their guesses about number of Kindles sold accordingly. Sometimes, they try to read between the lines of any press releases by the companies or utterances by one of their senior managers. But at the end of the day, everyone is mostly guessing.
post #73 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

They may be selling better than many of us might expect. The Samsung Tab 10.1, Asus Transformer and Toshiba Thrive have iPad-equivalent or better hardware, more connectivity options, good build quality, comparable battery life, less expensive add-ons, and yet still manage to meet and/or significantly undercut Apple's iPad2 prices. Dedicated Apple fans may say they can't match the iOS experience. Buyers of those "other" tablets probably don't know that (or don't care if they do) considering the price/feature differences. And if you throw the Nook Color in there, which IMO serves the most common needs for most surfers and readers at just $249, and Apple's higher price is hard to justify for some buyers.

That is Probably the most inaccurate misleading post in a long time...
post #74 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

That would be my guess too, except iPhone sales actually rose from the Christmas quarter to the 1st Q of 2011 (or what Apple calls Q2). This is why I continue to find that dip in iPad sales interesting.



That's the only sound argument I can think of so far. After all, it would be hard to build millions of iPads and iPad 2's at the same time.

Here's another argument - the iPad is more seasonal than an iPhone. iPhones are hard to buy for other people as gifts as you have to sign the owner up for a plan. They can be bought unlocked, and probably are, in certain countries but thats not a significant number of sales. Therefore, like iPods and unlike iPhones, a drop in iPad sales is probably seasonal. We are working from a data set of one. But it is a wise extrapolation.

iPod sales, which are mature, tend to drop by 50% in Q2 compared to Q1. The iPad looks like it could have fallen by 10% or so if there were no constraints. This indicates an upward trajectory.
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post #75 of 85
And some actual data. Apple said in the conference call after the release of the iPhone 4 that the sales of the 3GS fell off a cliff that month, and because of supply constraints they didn't make up the difference in iPhone 4 sales ( in the last week of that Q) . By "fall of a cliff" I mean the monthly sales were the same y-o-y as the year before, but previous months of the same quarter had seen increases of >100%. That was when the announced the phone at the WWDC. Clearly they have partly decided not to deal with that again. The iPhone 5/ 4S will be announced much closer to the release date, I imagine.
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post #76 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

Wow, you really don't understand, do you? And I thought you were just pretending to not get it.

Please stop. You're spouting nonsense at this point.

Or just go away. Thanks.
post #77 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

That would be my guess too, except iPhone sales actually rose from the Christmas quarter to the 1st Q of 2011 (or what Apple calls Q2). This is why I continue to find that dip in iPad sales interesting.

It's possible that Apple held supply back from the market in prior quarters in order to be able to supply the holiday quarter in greater volume. I think that there's no doubt that unlike iPhones the iPad will have a strong seasonal demand component around christmas. People buying over the holidays are more fickle, if you don't supply they'll switch their purchase to a competitor, or to a different category all together - so it might make sense to build up supply for that period - even in the face of supply constraints.

The iPhone sales for the post-holiday quarter are flattered by the launch of the Verizon iP4, which represented both significant new supply and significant new demand. That may have been masking some low overall demand in that period.
post #78 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by BestKeptSecret View Post

How do they get the numbers for e-readers when all the reports I have read so far mention that Amazon never releases sales figures of the Kindle. Since there is no third-party seller/ retailer, how does someone figure out how many Kindles have been sold?

I believe they're basing this primarily off consumer surveys in the US market by firms such as Nielsen and Pew. Such surveys have a significant margin of error due to sample bias.
post #79 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by myapplelove View Post

That is Probably the most inaccurate misleading post in a long time...

If you'd post some specifics on why you feel that way, perhaps we could discuss it. What parts were misleading? And what makes it the "most inaccurate post in a long time"?
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post #80 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Please stop. You're spouting nonsense at this point.

Or just go away. Thanks.

Say what? That's redundant, isn't it? Of course I'd go away. After all, I don't just sit on this site and come back post as multiple characters in order to reinforce my (absence of) arguments. That might be some people's raison d'etre, but not mine.

As for nonsense, when people disagree, they naturally find no sense in the other people's analysis. So, redundant again. But that's ok.
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  • IDC bumps 2011 tablet forecast to 53M as Apple’s iPad 2 dominates
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