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IDC bumps 2011 tablet forecast to 53M as Apple’s iPad 2 dominates - Page 3

post #81 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

It's possible that Apple held supply back from the market in prior quarters in order to be able to supply the holiday quarter in greater volume. I think that there's no doubt that unlike iPhones the iPad will have a strong seasonal demand component around christmas. People buying over the holidays are more fickle, if you don't supply they'll switch their purchase to a competitor, or to a different category all together - so it might make sense to build up supply for that period - even in the face of supply constraints.

The iPhone sales for the post-holiday quarter are flattered by the launch of the Verizon iP4, which represented both significant new supply and significant new demand. That may have been masking some low overall demand in that period.

It's a reasonable argument (unlike some others here, who seem to struggle with how timing changes the analysis). The Verizon iP4 was announced in mid-Jan and became available a month later. So yes, it could have given the overall iP4 sales a boost. In fact, it must have, particularly given that the increase from Christmas to the next quarter was about 1.5M, perhaps close enough to the Verizon difference. If so, this does say that there is not much seasonal dip in iPhone sales - at least, nowhere close to the drop seen in sales of iPods (see below).

Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

Here's another argument - the iPad is more seasonal than an iPhone. iPhones are hard to buy for other people as gifts as you have to sign the owner up for a plan. They can be bought unlocked, and probably are, in certain countries but thats not a significant number of sales. Therefore, like iPods and unlike iPhones, a drop in iPad sales is probably seasonal. We are working from a data set of one. But it is a wise extrapolation.

iPod sales, which are mature, tend to drop by 50% in Q2 compared to Q1. The iPad looks like it could have fallen by 10% or so if there were no constraints. This indicates an upward trajectory.

This is a good observation. IPods are great gifts, whereas iPhones are tricky gifts to give unless it is for a loved one. Also, they didn't come unlocked in the US until recently. And I agree, iPads would be more like iPods.

Well, glad to see I do make some sense to sensible people, and to see it is possible to analyze nuances together even when two people don't see the whole picture exactly the same way.
post #82 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

This is a good observation. IPods are great gifts, whereas iPhones are tricky gifts to give unless it is for a loved one. Also, they didn't come unlocked in the US until recently. And I agree, iPads would be more like iPods.

Well this will all be a lot clearer after the next few quarters, with supply issues greatly reduced and a second christmas season's data. An interesting question is whether the iPad is bringing people who previously used Android handsets around to the iOS experience - if so it could introduce yet another halo effect for Apple.
post #83 of 85
Oh, and back to the subject of Android tablets

http://thisismynext.com/2011/07/11/a...s-big-screens/

Apparently Hummingbird now supports 250-350 apps that were written just for it.

Who's a cute little platform then?
post #84 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

Wow, you really don't understand, do you? And I thought you were just pretending to not get it.

Brilliant reply. You state something that's not correct, and when shown that with numbers, you pretend it doesn't matter.
post #85 of 85
iPad 3 rum ors are gaining traction I d love a thinner retina on come December!
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