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JP Morgan predicts Apple sold nearly 20M iPhones in record June quarter

post #1 of 25
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Next week Apple could post its strongest quarter yet for iPhone sales, as Wall Street firm J.P. Morgan predicted on Thursday sales of 19.6 million iPhones in the June frame.

Analyst Mark Moskowitz made the increase to nearly 20 million from his previous prediction of 17.6 million units. He said that his firm's research has shown there are no signs of a slowdown in iPhone shipments from Apple.

"Plus we expect the momentum to continue, driven by the looming iPhone 4-plus refresh," he said, referring to the anticipated launch of a fifth-generation iPhone in the coming months. "Also, better than expected component pricing and improved yields stand to benefit iPhone gross margin."

Moskowitz's iPhone prediction is more bullish than many of his peers. For example, Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said on Thursday that he believes Apple will report sales of 16 million iPhones in the June quarter in its earnings report next Tuesday.

Similarly, Robert Cihra with Caris & Company said Thursday that he expects Apple to report sales of 15.8 million iPhones in the quarter, a total that would be an 88 percent year-over-year increase. But he also said he sees a potential upside of between 1 million and 2 million additional units.

And Mike Abramsky with RBC Capital Markets has called for Apple to report sales of 17.5 million iPhones in the June quarter, a 108 percent year-over-year increase. He said industry checks show that the iPhone has been "resilient," despite being more than a year old.

If Moskowitz's prediction of 19.6 million iPhones does come true, it would represent the best quarter of sales ever for Apple. It would also keep Apple's string of consecutive record-setting quarters for iPhone sales alive.



Apple's current best came in the last quarter, which concluded in March, when the company sold 18.65 million iPhones in the three-month span to start 2011. That was a 113 percent year-over-year increase.

That record shattered Apple's previous best of 16.5 million iPhones sold in the holiday quarter that concluded 2010. In fact, Apple has seen sequential quarter-to-quarter sales increases since the iPhone 4 first went on sale in June of 2010.

Apple will report earnings for its third quarter of fiscal 2011 next Tuesday, July 19, after markets close in the U.S. AppleInsider will have full in-depth coverage.
post #2 of 25
If they really do sell that many iPhones this quarter... I will be shocked.

You'd think people would be waiting for the normal Summer iPhone update...
post #3 of 25
As others here have mentioned about product update cycles, other than hardcore Apple fans, IMHO most other potential customers have no idea if/when the iPhone or any other Apple product is due for a refresh.
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post #4 of 25
Three of my PC-centric friends just bought white iPhones from Verizon. When I asked why they weren't waiting for the 4s/5 refresh, they pointed to the end of Verizon's unlimited data plan last week. They wanted to get in before that expired, even though they had to "settle" for the 4.
post #5 of 25
This is crazy but possible. I saw a lot of white iPhones lately.
post #6 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

As others here have mentioned about product update cycles, other than hardcore Apple fans, IMHO most other potential customers have no idea if/when the iPhone or any other Apple product is due for a refresh.

Apple is exceptional because the rumours make it into major news sources to a far greater degree, however Apple is also exceptional because to a great degree people don't actually care about the tech specs. Phones are also often a purchase based on need not desire, when an old phone is dying or lost and you can't wait 2 months for a new one.
post #7 of 25
20M - I can see a 40M Q in the holiday season, then, supply permitting. However they have to get supply right. Thy are heading into a holiday quarter with a refresh. Could be awkward.
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post #8 of 25
so when the real numbers are announced and they only sold 19 million falling dramatically short of analysts' wet dreams the stock will plummet making it a perfect opportunity to buy.
post #9 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

20M - I can see a 40M Q in the holiday season, then, supply permitting. However they have to get supply right. Thy are heading into a holiday quarter with a refresh. Could be awkward.

I'm sure they'll have a huge launch for iPhone-5 but I don't think the holiday will make a big difference. Are smartphone sales even seasonal? I mean look at this graphic from 2010 - we know that Android didn't have a supply shortage.

post #10 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

I'm sure they'll have a huge launch for iPhone-5 but I don't think the holiday will make a big difference. Are smartphone sales even seasonal? I mean look at this graphic from 2010 - we know that Android didn't have a supply shortage.

And FWIW Android activations are now running at 500K per day. I don't really see smartphone sales as particularly seasonal. They're almost on the verge of becoming a commodity.
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post #11 of 25
You're right about the seasonal thing, but let's all remember that Google never say they activate 500,000 smartphones per day. They never break it down because it includes all the junk hardwares out there running Android.

It's actually a figure they should be ashamed of. Android with many more manufacturers, many more carriers, many more countries and still they are barely beating Apple.

Let see what happens when Apple is on more carriers in the USA and China.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

And FWIW Android activations are now running at 500K per day. I don't really see smartphone sales as particularly seasonal. They're almost on the verge of becoming a commodity.
post #12 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post


And FWIW Android activations are now running at 500K per day. I don't really see smartphone sales as particularly seasonal. They're almost on the verge of becoming a commodity.

Apple iPhones are seasonal... new ones come out only once a year.

But there are quite a few new Android phones coming out every month... which definitely pushes them into the commodity status*

If you're just looking for "an Android phone" you don't have to look far or wait long.

*That's not a slam against Android... it's just a different business model.
post #13 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

I'm sure they'll have a huge launch for iPhone-5 but I don't think the holiday will make a big difference. Are smartphone sales even seasonal? I mean look at this graphic from 2010 - we know that Android didn't have a supply shortage.


Android cannot have a supply shortage. The question is whether one or more of HTC, Motorola, Samsung, Sony, and other Android licensees might run into a manufacturing wall. It is possible that some of them share the same suppliers for one or two key components (hello Qualcomm?) such that those components become a bottleneck for all of them. But that's unlikely. Samsung has recently established a decent lead, I believe, amongst Android hardware vendors. Will Samsung peak and fail to meet demand?

Also, if you are a contract manufacturer (such as Foxconn), would you create manufacturing capacity for someone other than Apple or do you simply cater to Apple's every need?
post #14 of 25
I always wonder the smartness of Android smartphone buyers. So many manufacturers are bringing out new devices so quickly. Their new phone is outdated so soon. Further, the Android OS also updates so frequently. And most Android smartphones are not allowed to update to the new OSs.

My conclusion is they buy Android based smartphones mainly because they are cheaper. But they forget to factor in the two year contract. In the end they saved less with an inferior phone.
post #15 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

I'm sure they'll have a huge launch for iPhone-5 but I don't think the holiday will make a big difference. Are smartphone sales even seasonal? I mean look at this graphic from 2010 - we know that Android didn't have a supply shortage.

True. I have argued against seasonality myself, for iPhones but not iPads.

However am assuming a cheaper iPhone sold off contract thus holiday season.
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post #16 of 25
Not bad for a device declared fatally flawed during "antennagate". Where did all those youtube videos of signal loss go? Where did all the "you're holding it wrong" sarcasm go? Where's Ireland? Nothing has changed, the antenna has not been redesigned. Tens of millions of iPhone 4's later is making all the outraged trolls and ocd hand wringers looking pretty damn stupid.

Twenty million sold last quarter and Consumer Reports still doesn't recommend it. Apple is rubbing CRs nose in it big time.
post #17 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by tzeshan View Post

I always wonder the smartness of Android smartphone buyers. So many manufacturers are bringing out new devices so quickly. Their new phone is outdated so soon. Further, the Android OS also updates so frequently. And most Android smartphones are not allowed to update to the new OSs.

My conclusion is they buy Android based smartphones mainly because they are cheaper. But they forget to factor in the two year contract. In the end they saved less with an inferior phone.

I have both an iPhone 4 (as well as my 3GS, still) and a Nexus S (previously had another Android). I can tell you, IMO, that they are different phones but neither can be classified as inferior or superior. They each have pros and cons. For every Android weakness you cite, we can cite an iOS or iPhone issue. Many of my friends buy iPhones because they love Apple. Many of my friends buy Android because they identify with the Google mentality. Price is only one of many factors and, often, not at all the important one.
post #18 of 25
I find it hard to believe they sold that many. I lean toward the more conservative estimates of around 17 million.
post #19 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

True. I have argued against seasonality myself, for iPhones but not iPads.

However am assuming a cheaper iPhone sold off contract thus holiday season.

I don't think this is the year of the cheaper iPhone, because it's not clear if they have yet maxed out what they can achieve selling only expensive models. The time for them to introduce the cheaper line will be when they're no longer at all supply constrained. While they're still reporting 100% YoY growth I don't expect a cheap iPhone.
post #20 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

Many of my friends buy iPhones because they love Apple. Many of my friends buy Android because they identify with the Google mentality. Price is only one of many factors and, often, not at all the important one.

I'd say that's more of a big deal within the geek community - non Geeks don't have strong feeling's about Apple as a company, and tend if anything to have vague privacy concerns about Google as a company.

Out there amidst the teeming masses of the technologically clueless it doesn't come down to apps, or notifications or liking corporate ethos - it comes down to whether they can afford it, and if they can whether they can justify the extra money for the luxury factor.
post #21 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

Android cannot have a supply shortage. The question is whether one or more of HTC, Motorola, Samsung, Sony, and other Android licensees might run into a manufacturing wall. It is possible that some of them share the same suppliers for one or two key components (hello Qualcomm?) such that those components become a bottleneck for all of them. But that's unlikely. Samsung has recently established a decent lead, I believe, amongst Android hardware vendors. Will Samsung peak and fail to meet demand?

It's possible, particularly with the touch-screen components and the screens - but I don't think it's terribly likely short of another 'tsuanami' level supply shock. The android handsets come in such a huge variety of form factors, that the only truly common component is the cellular chipset, and that was shared with the old dumb-phones that are in decline - so a shortage of them is unlikely.


Quote:
Also, if you are a contract manufacturer (such as Foxconn), would you create manufacturing capacity for someone other than Apple or do you simply cater to Apple's every need?

The answer for Foxconn seems to be, both. I believe it builds some plant for general use and some plant is dedicated to particular clients. Apple clearly has an amazingly deep relationship with Foxconn, the kind of thing that management books will be talking about in 20 years time. I'd love to know more details of the relationship, but Apple clearly views it as being part of their competitive advantage and, so it seems, does Foxconn.
post #22 of 25
How does one predict the past? The headline should read "JP Morgan estimates Apple sold..."

No?
post #23 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

I'd say that's more of a big deal within the geek community - non Geeks don't have strong feeling's about Apple as a company, and tend if anything to have vague privacy concerns about Google as a company.

Out there amidst the teeming masses of the technologically clueless it doesn't come down to apps, or notifications or liking corporate ethos - it comes down to whether they can afford it, and if they can whether they can justify the extra money for the luxury factor.

Apple has a strong cachet that goes far, far beyond the geek community. I believe multiple surveys have shown that the iPhone is more popular amongst women whereas Android catches on more with men, particularly those who consider themselves technically savvy even if they are not true geeks.
post #24 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by rcomeau View Post

How does one predict the past? The headline should read "JP Morgan estimates Apple sold..."

No?

This site has an opening for an editor. Jump in and save them from such embarrassing headlines. Go for it!
post #25 of 25
When Apple reaches that new contract with China's largest Telco perhaps then people will stop all this fantasy talk that Chinese will not pay for such a device.

Apple adding a conservative 15-20 million more iPhones, never mind iPads in China will push conservative target prices upwards of $600/share.

UBS already has a buy rating at a $510 target long before a single phone is sold on this upcoming relationship.
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