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iPad 2, Verizon iPhone took wind out of Android's sail with developers - Page 2

post #41 of 59
7/14/11 at 6:39pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by brisance View Post

When discussing growth rates, the time period is critical. Otherwise the entire article could be wrong.

According to a NetworkWorld article on 28 June, Andy Rubin claimed Android had 500K activations per day and grew 4.4% on a week-over-week basis.

http://www.networkworld.com/news/201...roid-500k.html

And Larry Page claims today in their earnings report that they are activating 550K devices per day.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-...14-716320.html

Taken together, that means Android growth actually slowed between 28 June and 14 July, a period of about 3 weeks. Because x^3 * 500 = 550, therefore x = 1.032, or 3.2% growth week-on-week.

You recognize that the 500K and 550K figures are likely rounded? For instance, when they tweeted 500K, it could have actually been 496K, and 550k could be an actual 553K. Just an example of course. And the latest quoted activation figure could be from a day or two ago. You'd need a bit more information than what's been given to make any solid claim that growth has slowed in the past 2-3 weeks.

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melior diabolus quem scies

"No theatrics and no more personal attacks, just stick to the logic and tell me why I don't have any argument ~ Jragosta/2012

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post #42 of 59
7/14/11 at 7:29pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Applications, particularly paid ones, are a crucial element to Apple's success with iOS. Various reports have found that it is much easier for developers to sell applications on Apple's App Store, while software for Android is more likely to be free and supported by advertising.

Exactly the way Google wants it.

"Can't innovate anymore my ass!" -- Phil Schiller

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post #43 of 59
7/14/11 at 7:29pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by jeffmac7101 View Post

I keep seeing this 500,000 activation/day figure on ADroid. Has anyone seen verification of this #? It seems absurdly high.

550,000 activations a day means next quater Google would activate 50 million Android devices. Sounds high, but think of this: there are predictions Apple is about to announce 20 million iPhone sales for this past quater (and the iPhone4 is not exactly new). Lets say there was 10 million iPads and maybe 10 million iPod touches so Apple could have activate 40 million iOS devices last quarter.
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post #44 of 59
7/14/11 at 8:11pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

You recognize that the 500K and 550K figures are likely rounded? For instance, when they tweeted 500K, it could have actually been 496K, and 550k could be an actual 553K. Just an example of course. And the latest quoted activation figure could be from a day or two ago. You'd need a bit more information than what's been given to make any solid claim that growth has slowed in the past 2-3 weeks.

Whatever makes you sleep at night. In the next 3 months when Rubin doesn't come out talking about the number of new activated Android phones will you then ask to see exact figures?
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post #45 of 59
7/14/11 at 8:13pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Orlando View Post

550,000 activations a day means next quater Google would activate 50 million Android devices. Sounds high, but think of this: there are predictions Apple is about to announce 20 million iPhone sales for this past quater (and the iPhone4 is not exactly new). Lets say there was 10 million iPads and maybe 10 million iPod touches so Apple could have activate 40 million iOS devices last quarter.

Add onto the fact that these iOS devices average $100 add on valuation, part of which goes back to Apple through iWorks, Garageband, iMovie, etc., and it becomes clear that Apple's 3 headed monster is driving the industry.
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post #46 of 59
7/14/11 at 8:24pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post

Whatever makes you sleep at night. In the next 3 months when Rubin doesn't come out talking about the number of new activated Android phones will you then ask to see exact figures?

Oh there's doubtless still room to grow - handset makers will keep putting Android on cheaper and cheaper phones, ranging down into the feature-phone space. The total handset market is of order 1billion per year - if Google captures half of that then it's 1,420,000/day.

Even if Apple continues to grow 100% YoY it's 2 years away from being able to supply even 30% of the global handset market.

What will be interesting to see is what happens when Google and Apple really have to compete with each other and not just with dumb-phones. The US market isn't many years away from being close to 100% smartphone, that's when things get interesting.
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post #47 of 59
7/14/11 at 8:36pm
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post #48 of 59
7/14/11 at 8:37pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

Some people think that Apple should lower the $99 developer fee? I say hell no, I am not interested in all sorts of riff raff and street bums developing apps for my iPad. I mean seriously, if somebody can not afford $99 as a developer, then they have zero business making any apps at all. These bums should stick to making Android apps, as that is where the lower class clientele is located, and they would be much more comfortable on that platform.

I have no time for amateur hour, when I'm buying apps for my iPad.


agreed, the 99 dollar fee keeps out most of the riff raff
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post #49 of 59
7/14/11 at 8:46pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacRulez View Post

With more than half a million Android activations every day, are you sure about that?

Google only recently passed Apple on activations/day. It will be a while yet before they pass them on total activations, though it's certainly likely that they will eventually. Google is probably around 110-120mil total currently, Apple is over 200mil. Assuming Google stays at 550k/day and Apple stays around 350k/day, we'd be looking at something like 250 days before Google is ahead.

Obviously both platforms are still growing though, so it could be considerably less, or, if iPad keeps growing like it has been, considerably more.
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post #50 of 59
7/14/11 at 8:49pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacRulez View Post

With more than half a million Android activations every day, are you sure about that?

In June Apple said they have sold 200 million iOS devices, whilst Google today said they had activated 135 million so Google is still 65 million behind.
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post #51 of 59
7/14/11 at 9:52pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by inkswamp View Post

Apple could accelerate this by making their iOS developer program free. I've never fully understood the $99 charge to get your app into the App Store. I understand it probably helps them offset the costs of hosting and distributing your software, but if they really wanted to knock Google developer support down a notch or two more, that would be a good way to go.

IMO if a developer balks at the $99 fee then they probably aren't a serious developer to start with. The $99 helps to keep the garbage apps out.
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post #52 of 59
7/14/11 at 10:05pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacRulez View Post

With more than half a million Android activations every day, are you sure about that?

Positive. With a smartphone a developer cannot really gauge what the interest of the purchaser is. Are they hoping to utilize their smartphone as computing device, gaming device or camera that also makes calls? Smartphones are "smart" but their usage is ambiguous.

If someone buys a tablet like an iPad you know that they are intending to skew towards the running apps and phone calls never enter into the equation. Add the iPod Touch and it's clear that iOS is the platform to beat which is why we get "Android vs iPhone" rather than the more appropriate "Android vs iOS"

Plus iOS dominates overseas as well.
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post #53 of 59
7/14/11 at 10:29pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

That's absurd. $99 gets you all the development tools you need and support. It's an insignificant charge to anyone who treats software development like a business - and is a very reasonable charge even for hobbyists.

Absurd?
The fee is a definite disincentive for kindly freeware developers for iOS and OS X.
As for App SPAM, the answer to that is to charge for App review, not the dev tools.
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post #54 of 59
7/15/11 at 3:10am
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post

Whatever makes you sleep at night. In the next 3 months when Rubin doesn't come out talking about the number of new activated Android phones will you then ask to see exact figures?

I didn't ask for the ones they already announced.

Apple stopped announcing their activation totals months ago and nobody here asks for the figures. What's the big deal if Google does or doesn't announce them?

melior diabolus quem scies

"No theatrics and no more personal attacks, just stick to the logic and tell me why I don't have any argument ~ Jragosta/2012

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melior diabolus quem scies

"No theatrics and no more personal attacks, just stick to the logic and tell me why I don't have any argument ~ Jragosta/2012

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post #55 of 59
7/15/11 at 5:36am
Quote:
Originally Posted by DESuserIGN View Post

Absurd?
The fee is a definite disincentive for kindly freeware developers for iOS and OS X.
As for App SPAM, the answer to that is to charge for App review, not the dev tools.

99$ registration fee isn't a problem for serious freeware developers. 99$ registration fee isn't the reason that we can't have VLC on the iPhone for example.
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post #56 of 59
7/15/11 at 7:25am
If you fix the misplaced modifiers in this article, it should read that there were fewer Android new product starts that included Flurry Analytics. Since Flurry is used in less than 15% of apps in both app stores combined, it seems a bit of a stretch to draw too many conclusions about the platforms as a whole.

But to emphasize one key takeaway from the analytics: with 20,000 new Flurry app starts in the first 6 months of 2011, both platforms can look forward to being inundated with a ton of crappy apps over the next year.
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post #57 of 59
7/15/11 at 7:55am
I think we are going to see a lot of people start to ship Android first. You cant be held hostage. Marketing an application becomes increasingly important given the number of apps that are being published. Since apps can still get tied up in the iOS approval process, it makes this marketing planning almost impossible."

So we have the 'He Said, She Said'... Well, I still love you iOS!
/
/
/[/QUOTE]


What you're seeing is too different markets. Advertising apps will go with Android first for the exposure. Paid apps will go with iOS first for actual dollars.

Frankly, I'm all for it... If the advertisers love Android that just clutters the Android market with more crap and diminishes the android brand.
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post #58 of 59
7/15/11 at 9:28am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

You recognize that the 500K and 550K figures are likely rounded? For instance, when they tweeted 500K, it could have actually been 496K, and 550k could be an actual 553K. Just an example of course. And the latest quoted activation figure could be from a day or two ago. You'd need a bit more information than what's been given to make any solid claim that growth has slowed in the past 2-3 weeks.

Even with generous numbers biased towards the "rounding errors" that you speak of, the result is clear. (554/496)^1/3 = 3.75%. It is still less than the 4.4% that was trumpeted earlier this year.
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post #59 of 59
7/15/11 at 10:25am
Quote:
Originally Posted by brisance View Post

Even with generous numbers biased towards the "rounding errors" that you speak of, the result is clear. (554/496)^1/3 = 3.75%. It is still less than the 4.4% that was trumpeted earlier this year.

Unless the timeframe isn't the three weeks you've used. I think there's only 17 days between the two announcements, not your assumed 21.

melior diabolus quem scies

"No theatrics and no more personal attacks, just stick to the logic and tell me why I don't have any argument ~ Jragosta/2012

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melior diabolus quem scies

"No theatrics and no more personal attacks, just stick to the logic and tell me why I don't have any argument ~ Jragosta/2012

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