2011 the same as 1998?- rewind to 1998:
The computer industry back then was dominated by IBM, Microsoft and a few notable others. IBM made its money by charging customers for MIPS, As business grew IBM made sequential increases in support and hardware revenues as customers increased their MIPS consumption. It was an automatic "feature" of business back then and it really annoyed many of IBM's customers. Then something really interesting happened. Customers started going away from the big blue fee stucture and migrating to a transaction based model to save cost suddenly IBM and many of a similar fee model started to undergo serious revenue shortfalls. The whole industry changed pretty much overnight.
Fast forward to 2011:
I foresee a similar thing about to happen with the model Google uses to generate revenue from its ad business based on clicks. Click thrus also cause fees to automatically increase even though sales may not rise proportionally. Someone is going to figure out a fairer way for customers to be billed on click thru fees (perhaps caused by increased mobile surfing), so that people who don't buy at a site, but still click to the site don't count as revenue. It will be based on actual sales not hits.
I bet that has google up at nights trying to figure out a way around it?
Just watch this one play out as companies realize the massive increase in their click fees don't result in proportionally increasing sales!
All it needs is for a competitor to figure out a way to find the "click to sales" algorythm, implement it in the ad market and google will be in trouble.
Originally Posted by Pendergast
Isn't step 2 "collect user data and sell it to the highest bidder"?
Oh wait, that's right, Google respects your privacy. Yeah. And everything is "opt-in" (just don't try using their services by not signing your soul away).