or Connect
AppleInsider › Forums › Mobile › iPhone › Massive Android activations not viewed as concern for Apple
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

Massive Android activations not viewed as concern for Apple

post #1 of 168
Thread Starter 
Though activations of new Android devices are now significantly outpacing iOS, it is viewed as representative of a larger trend of surging growth in the smartphone market, which will also benefit Apple.

Analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said Friday he remains comfortable with his estimate of 16 million iPhone units sold in the June quarter, despite Google's announcement on Thursday that Android activations are now greater than 550,000 per day. The search giant revealed in its quarterly earnings report that total Android activations for its June quarter were about 50 million units, up 57 percent quarter over quarter.

For comparison, Munster has projected Apple will have activated 29 million iOS-powered devices in the June quarter, including the iPhone, iPad and iPod touch. That would be an increase of just 2 percent quarter over quarter.

"Apple's numbers are deceivingly low given the shift in timing of the iPhone upgrade," Munster wrote in a note to investors. "We believe iOS devices would have been up ~20% (quarter over quarter) if iPhone 5 had shipped in June."

He believes there are two clear winners in the growing smartphone market with Google's Android and Apple's iOS. And in his view, Android activations are evidence of how significant that growth is, which is a trend that will benefit Apple and sales of its iPhone.

Munster also noted that Android is available on multiple devices in various configurations from a variety of hardware manufacturers. In contrast, the iPhone and iPad lineup is extremely limited, which makes a direct comparison somewhat unfair.

He also said that Android appears to be having great success in prepaid emerging markets, while Apple has not seen as strong of a performance in those countries. He does not, however, expect that Apple will introduce a new low-end iPhone this year, as some others have predicted.



Instead, Munster sees Apple shifting previous-generation iPhones into emerging markets in the next year. That aligns with one report that claimed Apple will keep around its iPhone 3GS, first released in 2009, after the debut of a fifth-generation iPhone this year.

When that fifth-generation iPhone is released this year, Munster expects to see a "huge spike" in iPhone sales in the September quarter. In that period, he sees total sales reaching 21 million.
post #2 of 168
There can be only one. The mobile pie is actually big enough for 3-5 successful and highly profitable platforms.
post #3 of 168
I think we could have over 30 million iPhone, iPod Touch, iPad and AppleTV devices activated for this quarter. That's only 330,000 activations per day but that's the bulk of the industry's profit.

If anything I think Android users should thank Apple for creating a new road and settling the primitive market that for so long was occupied by the indigenous feature phone.
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
post #4 of 168
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steven N. View Post

There can be only one. The mobile pie is actually big enough for 3-5 successful and highly profitable platforms.

Agreed, although I'm very suspicious of the 550,000 activations per day figure since it can't be verified by anyone else - and Google refuses to provide any sales figures to back it up.

Apple SOLD 16 million iPhones in the quarter and Google claims 50 million activations. Does anyone really believe that they sold 3 Android phones for every iPhone? Based on what I'm seeing in the real world, that doesn't seem remotely plausible.

If Google were being honest, they're report how many phones were sold (and don't tell me they don't know - they get a record of how many Android licenses are issued each quarter). Or tell us how many activations are counted per phone. I'll bet the number is significantly greater than 1.

Don't compare apples and oranges.
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
Reply
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
Reply
post #5 of 168
With 10/90 Android rule, 1 good Android and 9 craps & turds, it's not compelling enough for developer to develop on Android.
Fun and relaxing way to prepare Japanese Language Proficiency Test (JLPT) test with Juku Apps
Reply
Fun and relaxing way to prepare Japanese Language Proficiency Test (JLPT) test with Juku Apps
Reply
post #6 of 168
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steven N. View Post

There can be only one. The mobile pie is actually big enough for 3-5 successful and highly profitable platforms.

I think that's bad business for Android. For Android to be desirable to consumers, devs, and vendors Android needs to have a strong dominance. It's the single vendor OSes that can be highly successful with a slice of the pie.

Part of the reasoning is that Android, just like Windows first competes against all the vendors within their marketshare slice. This ultimately weakens the profit that can be had by a single vendor and will inevitable trickle down to devs and users in many negative ways.

Windows has about 95% worldwide OS marketshare but the leading PC vendor, HP, only has around 20%. Imagine if they had that 20% taken from only 50% Windows marketshare.

Android needs to figure out how to get on top or risk a mass exodus from vendors to the safer and more profitable options.
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
post #7 of 168
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I think we could have over 30 million iPhone, iPod Touch, iPad and AppleTV devices activated for this quarter. That's only 330,000 activations per day but that's the bulk of the industry's profit.

If anything I think Android users should thank Apple for creating a new road and settling the primitive market that for so long was occupied by the indigenous feature phone.

The analyst (Munster) was quoted in the article saying that Apple activated 29 million iOS devices in June alone. June has 30 days. That's almost 1 million per day...still well ahead of Android. (Edit: I now think the quote was wrong and he meant the June quarter.)
post #8 of 168
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

Apple SOLD 16 million iPhones in the quarter and Google claims 50 million activations. Does anyone really believe that they sold 3 Android phones for every iPhone? Based on what I'm seeing in the real world, that doesn't seem remotely plausible.

It's definitely not true in the USA or the EU, but it could be true in Asia. It would really be nice if Google provided some kind of geographic breakdown, or carrier breakdown, or OEM breakdown. Any granularity at all really.
post #9 of 168
perhaps we can get a breakdown by
android operating system,

and buy one get one

price target

android is attacking the middle and now low end just to get the phones in peoples hands

BUT
with iphone 4, 3gs at $50 or free that will help and apple is thinking hard and deep about the prepaid market like india, and china

both will grow they both have momentum and RIM, nokia to the wayside MS will buy market share.
I APPLE THEREFORE I AM
Reply
I APPLE THEREFORE I AM
Reply
post #10 of 168
Quote:
Originally Posted by chabig View Post

The analyst (Munster) was quoted in the article saying that Apple activated 29 million iOS devices in June alone. June has 30 days. That's almost 1 million per day...still well ahead of Android.

I read that to mean June quarter. So how did they get that? If Apple does sell 20 million iPhones for the june quarter that's only about 6-7 million iPhones per month. How does he account for the other 23-24 million iOS-based activations?
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
post #11 of 168
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

Or tell us how many activations are counted per phone. I'll bet the number is significantly greater than 1.


Why do you bet that? What do you think an activation is?
post #12 of 168
These numbers are deceiving. They are new phone activations which to me could mean that the massive number of phones being activated could be replacements for poorly built phones. I and many of my friends who have iPhones have had the same device for over two years now. I'm constantly seeing my other friends who have the latest flavor of 'droid' going back to the store or calling their insurance for a replacement device. Each of these replacements are then activated and feed this number of 'new phone activations.' People in this situation are not in a position to switch phones all together because that would mean more money out of their pockets.
post #13 of 168
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

Agreed, although I'm very suspicious of the 550,000 activations per day figure since it can't be verified by anyone else - and Google refuses to provide any sales figures to back it up.

Apple SOLD 16 million iPhones in the quarter and Google claims 50 million activations. Does anyone really believe that they sold 3 Android phones for every iPhone? Based on what I'm seeing in the real world, that doesn't seem remotely plausible.

If Google were being honest, they're report how many phones were sold (and don't tell me they don't know - they get a record of how many Android licenses are issued each quarter). Or tell us how many activations are counted per phone. I'll bet the number is significantly greater than 1.

Don't compare apples and oranges.

Of course, we all know that Apple takes 50% of the smartphone profits, so even Android's inflated numbers are no match for the profit numbers.

Apple's numbers are extremely impressive given that they are only on two networks. You can buy Android phones on every cell phone network including prepaid and regional networks.

I imagine the Sprint iPhone should be around the corner, and I'm not sure why there isn't a T-Mobile one yet either (maybe Apple is now figuring AT&T will just eat them up)
post #14 of 168
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gwydion View Post

Why do you bet that? What do you think an activation is?

It's a legitimate concern to know what counts as an activation. If you buy an Android phone and it's returned a week later because it's faulty for a replacement Android phone is that 2 activations? If you return it for an iPhone does that still count as 1 activation? Does flashing the ROM to then root the device count as an activation? Does each new gmail account added to the device (e.g., selling it) count as an activation?
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
post #15 of 168
Quote:
Originally Posted by akhomerun View Post

Apple's numbers are extremely impressive given that they are only on two networks. You can buy Android phones on every cell phone network including prepaid and regional networks.

There is a world outside USA
post #16 of 168
As much as I hate to admit this, under the current roll-out strategy the iphone in the long run is going to be marginalized and end up with a static (i.e. replacement level) and then eventually greatly reduced market share.

Go to any cell store in the USA and you're slammed with tons of visually impressive Android devices. I have had bad success lately convincing people to go with iphone (which I still don't understand but that Droid marketing is very very successful on Verizon). The android selection is so large, prices initially cheaper, that the single iphone just looks pathetic next too all these crappy functioning but visually impressive devices.

Hope I am wrong. But I don't believe the iphone is going to stay at it's current level given the onslaught of devices it faces.
post #17 of 168
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

It's a legitimate concern to know what counts as an activation. If you buy an Android phone and it's returned a week later because it's faulty for a replacement Android phone is that 2 activations? If you return it for an iPhone does that still count as 1 activation? Does flashing the ROM to then root the device count as an activation? Does each new gmail account added to the device (e.g., selling it) count as an activation?

Upgrades, rom installations or devices withouth google services doesn't account for activations
post #18 of 168
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

Agreed, although I'm very suspicious of the 550,000 activations per day figure since it can't be verified by anyone else - and Google refuses to provide any sales figures to back it up.

Apple SOLD 16 million iPhones in the quarter and Google claims 50 million activations. Does anyone really believe that they sold 3 Android phones for every iPhone? Based on what I'm seeing in the real world, that doesn't seem remotely plausible.

If Google were being honest, they're report how many phones were sold (and don't tell me they don't know - they get a record of how many Android licenses are issued each quarter). Or tell us how many activations are counted per phone. I'll bet the number is significantly greater than 1.

Don't compare apples and oranges.

I doubt the number of activations is much bigger than 1 - unless they're stupid enough to count used android sales, which are pretty significant at least where I live. In that sense Apple should maybe counter with "activations" for iPhones - I know 2nd hand 3GS, and 2G are hot sellers around these parts...

Nevertheless, I can believe these numbers on one factoid alone: Android phones cost as little as half as much as an iPhone. I can get a $300 Android device here; the iPhone costs $660 and up.

Price isn't that big a factor in subsidy-countries like the USA and much of western Europe. But it's a HUGE deal here in SE Asia.

I also know that anyone who can afford it has an iPhone. Android phones are for those who can't afford an iPhone, and for a handful of people who want to be "different".

In summary - iOS is doing just fine. In fact, considering how many competitors are making Android phones, Apple is currently wiping the floor with the competition. Android remains the "iPhone alternative" by default.
post #19 of 168
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

It's a legitimate concern to know what counts as an activation. If you buy an Android phone and it's returned a week later because it's faulty for a replacement Android phone is that 2 activations? If you return it for an iPhone does that still count as 1 activation? Does flashing the ROM to then root the device count as an activation? Does each new gmail account added to the device (e.g., selling it) count as an activation?

There were a number of reports that "activations" were instances of a manufacturer putting Android on a device and not consumers registering the phone. Google denied that it included upgrades though.
post #20 of 168
Quote:
Originally Posted by poke View Post

There were a number of reports that "activations" were instances of a manufacturer putting Android on a device and not consumers registering the phone. Google denied that it included upgrades though.

Which reports?
post #21 of 168
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gwydion View Post

Upgrades, rom installations or devices withouth google services doesn't account for activations

Source?
na na na na na...
Reply
na na na na na...
Reply
post #22 of 168
Quote:
Originally Posted by poke View Post

There were a number of reports that "activations" were instances of a manufacturer putting Android on a device and not consumers registering the phone. Google denied that it included upgrades though.

So does that mean it's all devices being flashed at the factory, not devices being directly sold to customers, if it's the manufacturer putting Android on the device?
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
post #23 of 168
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

If anything I think Android users should thank Apple for creating a new road and settling the primitive market that for so long was occupied by the indigenous feature phone.

You know that will never happen. In general, fandroids have extreme anti-Apple sentiments.
bb
Reply
bb
Reply
post #24 of 168
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Source?

Google denied OS upgrades were accounted as activations when Jobs said it on a keynote and you have more about activations here:

http://gigaom.com/mobile/andy-rubin-...devices-a-day/
post #25 of 168
Quote:
Originally Posted by nikster View Post

I doubt the number of activations is much bigger than 1 - unless they're stupid enough to count used android sales, which are pretty significant at least where I live. In that sense Apple should maybe counter with "activations" for iPhones - I know 2nd hand 3GS, and 2G are hot sellers around these parts...

Nevertheless, I can believe these numbers on one factoid alone: Android phones cost as little as half as much as an iPhone. I can get a $300 Android device here; the iPhone costs $660 and up.

Price isn't that big a factor in subsidy-countries like the USA and much of western Europe. But it's a HUGE deal here in SE Asia.

I also know that anyone who can afford it has an iPhone. Android phones are for those who can't afford an iPhone, and for a handful of people who want to be "different".

Half a million a day is quite the handful. You must have big hands

Quote:
Originally Posted by nikster View Post

In summary - iOS is doing just fine. In fact, considering how many competitors are making Android phones, Apple is currently wiping the floor with the competition. Android remains the "iPhone alternative" by default.

Totally agree - just like Windows remains the alternative to Mac OS. Yup.
post #26 of 168
When i pay attention to what people use for their cell phones, I see more Andriod devices than i do iPhones. All these numbers do not mean anything. People lie all the time. I like the iPhone. There are 3 in my family, but we seem to be a rare bunch.... Everyone else we know has Androids or BB's.
post #27 of 168
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrmj2u View Post

These numbers are deceiving. They are new phone activations which to me could mean that the massive number of phones being activated could be replacements for poorly built phones. I and many of my friends who have iPhones have had the same device for over two years now. I'm constantly seeing my other friends who have the latest flavor of 'droid' going back to the store or calling their insurance for a replacement device. Each of these replacements are then activated and feed this number of 'new phone activations.' People in this situation are not in a position to switch phones all together because that would mean more money out of their pockets.

I have had 3 iPhones in total and 2 Androids. All have worked very reliably (although 3 of 5 are used for tinkering now and not as a phone at all). I have friends who are loyal iPhone users and those who are loyal Android users. Neither camp has seen more failures than the other. I also don't see widespread reports of poor quality from Samsung or HTC, etc.
post #28 of 168
Quote:
Originally Posted by s4mb4 View Post

People lie all the time.

Ain't that the truth!
post #29 of 168
Quote:
Originally Posted by bloggerblog View Post

You know that will never happen. In general, fandroids have extreme anti-Apple sentiments.

Android user = fandroid?

And you talk about anti-something sentiments?
post #30 of 168
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

So does that mean it's all devices being flashed at the factory, not devices being directly sold to customers, if it's the manufacturer putting Android on the device?

Yes. But it was just rumours, there wasn't any evidence.
post #31 of 168
Quote:
Originally Posted by poke View Post

Yes. But it was just rumours, there wasn't any evidence.

So, no, it doesn't mean so, no?
post #32 of 168
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacInsider2 View Post

As much as I hate to admit this, under the current roll-out strategy the iphone in the long run is going to be marginalized and end up with a static (i.e. replacement level) and then eventually greatly reduced market share.

Go to any cell store in the USA and you're slammed with tons of visually impressive Android devices. I have had bad success lately convincing people to go with iphone (which I still don't understand but that Droid marketing is very very successful on Verizon). The android selection is so large, prices initially cheaper, that the single iphone just looks pathetic next too all these crappy functioning but visually impressive devices.

Hope I am wrong. But I don't believe the iphone is going to stay at it's current level given the onslaught of devices it faces.

That's true for people who go to the mobile shops and aren't sure what they actually want or need. iPhone's are sold by word of mouth, not sales pitches or shelf display zazz. Most of the people I know who have recently switched to the iPhone, have done so because they saw someone (a friend) using one.

I believe the iPhone's share will rise significantly after iOS 5 is released this fall as it will offer all the significant benefits of both Androind and BlackBerry and even improve upon them.
Disclaimer: The things I say are merely my own personal opinion and may or may not be based on facts. At certain points in any discussion, sarcasm may ensue.
Reply
Disclaimer: The things I say are merely my own personal opinion and may or may not be based on facts. At certain points in any discussion, sarcasm may ensue.
Reply
post #33 of 168
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steven N. View Post

The mobile pie is actually big enough for 3-5 successful and highly profitable platforms.

Exactly. Also, the analysts act like Apple's end goal is to vastly dominate the market when they have no proof of this and a decent amount of proof against it.

So long as Apple's numbers aren't dropping, and they aren't, Apple's going to care what is going on outside. That they might go from 40% of the market to only 25% just lessens their need to worry about complaints of anti-trust behavior and such.
post #34 of 168
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Android needs to figure out how to get on top or risk a mass exodus from vendors to the safer and more profitable options.

Android IS surging to the "on top" in smartphone share aren't they? Just 20 months ago they held a 2% share, and now at 38% and still growing. You really think they should have grown share faster than that?

So which OS should those manufacturer's adopt instead Solipcism? Surely you don't think it would be a great business decision for each and every OEM to design their own OS.
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
post #35 of 168
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

the analysts act like Apple's end goal is to vastly dominate the market when they have no proof of this and a decent amount of proof against it.

The "analyst" here is Gene Munster, nuff said.
post #36 of 168
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

I have had 3 iPhones in total and 2 Androids. All have worked very reliably (although 3 of 5 are used for tinkering now and not as a phone at all). I have friends who are loyal iPhone users and those who are loyal Android users. Neither camp has seen more failures than the other. I also don't see widespread reports of poor quality from Samsung or HTC, etc.

Well maybe you were fortunate. I'm constantly seeing/hearing reports of broken/failed headphone jacks, broken keyboards, broken charging ports, etc... The major players in the Android market all made their name in feature phones (aka "made to fail") there is nothing different.
post #37 of 168
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gwydion View Post

Android user = fandroid?

I bet i'm talking to one now.

Which of us is the fisherman and which the trout?

Reply

Which of us is the fisherman and which the trout?

Reply
post #38 of 168
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrmj2u View Post

Well maybe you were fortunate. I'm constantly seeing/hearing reports of broken/failed headphone jacks, broken keyboards, broken charging ports, etc... The major players in the Android market all made their name in feature phones (aka "made to fail") there is nothing different.

Does this report include Apple Service calls?

P.S. And I don't doubt for a moment that iPhone quality os a lot better than a lot of OEM's
post #39 of 168
Quote:
Originally Posted by Povilas View Post

I bet i'm talking to one now.

And the reason you think I'm a fandroid is....
post #40 of 168
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Android IS surging to the "on top" in smartphone share aren't they? Just 20 months ago they held a 2% share, and now at 38% and still growing. You really think they should have grown share faster than that?

Yes, a lot faster considering the number of vendors, devices and range in price points. I consider Android to be a failure because it's free and can barely manage 1/3 of the market after a couple years. The iPhone isn't far behind and it's a single vendor. You add in all iOS-based devices and Apple may actually be ahead. That shouldn't happen if Android was well marketed and designed. Something it failing miserably in their camp.

For lack of a better example: If you say your Bugatti Veyron can go from 0-60mph in 4 seconds and has a top speed of 150mph I'd say something is very wrong with your vehicle as it's designed to be much faster. It has no barring on whether my Kia is faster or slower in any way than your Veyron because it's based on expectations of your device.

Android is a freely distributed OS used by dozens of vendors across dozens of new devices each quarter and at dozens of price points throughout the world. If it's a quality OS that vendors and devs can get behind, and consumers enjoy using then it should have a much higher marketshare but it doesn't. Something is failing in the Android camp.
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: iPhone
AppleInsider › Forums › Mobile › iPhone › Massive Android activations not viewed as concern for Apple