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46% of smartphone buyers prefer Apple's iOS, 32% choose Google Android

post #1 of 70
Thread Starter 
Among consumers who plan to buy a smartphone in the next three months, the iPhone is the top choice, with nearly half of all prospective buyers choosing Apple.

The data comes from the latest survey from ChangeWave Research via a poll it conducted of 4,163 consumers in June. The survey focused primarily on the smartphone market in North America, with 89 percent of respondents being from the U.S. and 11 percent outside of America.

The survey found that 46 percent of consumers who plan to buy a smartphone in the next 90 days prefer a device running Apple's iOS, which powers the iPhone. That's up 2 points from a poll done in March.

In second place in the latest survey was Google Android, which 32 percent of planned smartphone buyers said they will choose. Google's share also increased since March, growing by one percentage point.

The gains of Apple and Google came at the expense of rivals, as Research in Motion's BlackBerry line lost one point since March. The BlackBerry's 4 percent share is the lowest level ever seen in a ChangeWave survey, and is far away from its high of 32 percent in September of 2008.

The data showing consumer preferences for the iPhone aligns with previous polls that have told a similar story. Last November, ChangeWave reported that 34 percent of non-AT&T smartphone buyers said they wished they could buy Apple's iPhone. At the time, the iPhone was exclusive to AT&T.



The latest survey also tracked the potential impact of Apple's iCloud service, and found it will increase the value proposition of devices like the iPhone. Among current Apple product owners, 29 percent said iCloud will make them "more likely" to buy Apple products in the future, while the same was said by 13 percent of non-Apple product owners.

"This initial look at the impact of Apple's new iCloud service shows it enhancing customer loyalty," the report said. "But the survey also provides highly encouraging signs that iCloud will generate additional customer demand for other Apple products, not only from current Apple product owners but from a substantial number of non-owners as well."

The latest survey also reaffirmed that the iPhone carries the highest satisfaction rate in the industry. When asked about the operating system on their mobile device, 70 percent of users said they are "very satisfied" with iOS, while 50 percent said the same of Google. Just 26 percent said they were satisfied with RIM's BlackBerry OS.



In what was characterized as an "encouraging sign" for Apple's rival Microsoft, the survey found that 57 percent of respondents running Windows Phone 7 said they are "very satisfied." That total is significantly better than the paltry 14 percent rating the previous-generation Windows Mobile OS earned.

"Even so, the higher Windows Phone 7 rating has yet to produce a sustained momentum boost for Microsoft in terms of buyer preferences," the report said.
post #2 of 70
These numbers are great, but unconvincing. The problem is that Apple has not had sales figures that match up against these intentions from what we've seen from Nielsen. Look at the 50% for June-10. If you actually look at Nielsen's sales numbers for the 90 days after June-10, Apple never even got close to 50% of the smartphone market - in fact they never even passed Android for those 3 months.

Unfortunately I'd have to conclude that this survey has either a significant sample bias, or some sort of methodological problem with its questions.
post #3 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

These numbers are great, but unconvincing. The problem is that Apple has not had sales figures that match up against these intentions from what we've seen from Nielsen. Look at the 50% for June-10. If you actually look at Nielsen's sales numbers for the 90 days after June-10, Apple never even got close to 50% of the smartphone market - in fact they never even passed Android for those 3 months.

Unfortunately I'd have to conclude that this survey has either a significant sample bias, or some sort of methodological problem with its questions.

But the only data point you pick happens to be the one that does not follow the trend! That is the one that is obviously biased. All the other points seem to follow a credible trend.
post #4 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

These numbers are great, but unconvincing. The problem is that Apple has not had sales figures that match up against these intentions from what we've seen from Nielsen. Look at the 50% for June-10. If you actually look at Nielsen's sales numbers for the 90 days after June-10, Apple never even got close to 50% of the smartphone market - in fact they never even passed Android for those 3 months.

Unfortunately I'd have to conclude that this survey has either a significant sample bias, or some sort of methodological problem with its questions.

The methodology is certainly questionable. For example, what's up with the 11% non-Americans? Either you sample only US or only Europe or only Asia, or you make an effort to sample a representative mix. To me, 89+11 is a nonsensical, misleading mixture.

When it comes to future buying trends, consumer polls are often off. This surprises me because election polls are often very good indicators of the outcome.
post #5 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

These numbers are great, but unconvincing. The problem is that Apple has not had sales figures that match up against these intentions from what we've seen from Nielsen. Look at the 50% for June-10. If you actually look at Nielsen's sales numbers for the 90 days after June-10, Apple never even got close to 50% of the smartphone market - in fact they never even passed Android for those 3 months.

Unfortunately I'd have to conclude that this survey has either a significant sample bias, or some sort of methodological problem with its questions.

This survey is all about OS preference which may not be at all related to what people actually buy... 46% may well prefer iOS but then go on to buy Android or some other phone due to a factor beyond the OS - my guess would be price is a key here...

If I had to express a preference between a Ferrari or a Ford I'd choose Ferrari.... doesn't mean I'm ever likely to buy one...
post #6 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by iStud View Post

But the only data point you pick happens to be the one that does not follow the trend! That is the one that is obviously biased. All the other points seem to follow a credible trend.

What other points follow a credible trend? The only meaningful trend that I can see is what people are actually buying. On that, the surveys have been consistently off. But maybe I missed something you spotted?
post #7 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

These numbers are great, but unconvincing. The problem is that Apple has not had sales figures that match up against these intentions from what we've seen from Nielsen. Look at the 50% for June-10. If you actually look at Nielsen's sales numbers for the 90 days after June-10, Apple never even got close to 50% of the smartphone market - in fact they never even passed Android for those 3 months.

Unfortunately I'd have to conclude that this survey has either a significant sample bias, or some sort of methodological problem with its questions.

Well, these kind of numbers are always completely biased. Customer interest surveys never work. Why? Because they only measure the buying intents of people that can actually be bothered to participate in these kinds of surveys.
- This is only a small subset of the entire consumer population
- It's very likely that "what you want to buy" and "wether or not you participate in these surveys" are not completely independent variables. So these surveys will never be representative for the entire possible customer pool.

I only had very basic statistics courses in school, but enough to know that most statistics don't mean anything.
post #8 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

These numbers are great, but unconvincing. The problem is that Apple has not had sales figures that match up against these intentions from what we've seen from Nielsen. Look at the 50% for June-10. If you actually look at Nielsen's sales numbers for the 90 days after June-10, Apple never even got close to 50% of the smartphone market - in fact they never even passed Android for those 3 months.

Unfortunately I'd have to conclude that this survey has either a significant sample bias, or some sort of methodological problem with its questions.

Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

The methodology is certainly questionable. For example, what's up with the 11% non-Americans? Either you sample only US or only Europe or only Asia, or you make an effort to sample a representative mix. To me, 89+11 is a nonsensical, misleading mixture.

When it comes to future buying trends, consumer polls are often off. This surprises me because election polls are often very good indicators of the outcome.

Does either of you know how Nielsen comes up with its numbers?
post #9 of 70
It is obvious that only Wintards are buying windows 7 phones as this company is now irrelevant in the mobile market but the clowns using them haven't figured it out yet.
post #10 of 70
I'm more confused with the idea of which OS folks prefer. Can you really survey OS preference, or are they really measuring which platform (phone + OS) people plan to buy?

That is, I greatly prefer iOS, but with Virgin Mobile's all the data you want for $25/month, I went with an Android phone. Do I count as a customer who prefers iOS or Android for the purposes of this survey?

Seems the way the questions were framed (if this story represents them accurately), you could easily think you're answering either of those questions -- better OS or which platform you're buying -- while going through the survey, which kills its accuracy a bit.
post #11 of 70
Good thing you got the $25 virgin mobile plan when you did, new costumers as of 7/20 will have to pay $35 for that plan.
post #12 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

the survey found that 57 percent of respondents running Windows Phone 7 said they are "very satisfied."

The chart says 27% of WinPhone buyers are "very satisfied", not 57%. Something is very fishy.
post #13 of 70
This flies in the face of a previous AI article:http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...for_apple.html

So, people are not actually doing what this survey suggests they should. I think cloudgazer is correct, there is probably some inherent bias in the survey.

I can also see a lot of people saying one thing in answer to a survey then changing their minds when they actually come to pay for a device and find out how over priced an IP4 is. With my provider, a Samsung Galaxy S II is 470 and a IP4 is 589. The SGSII is quite obviously much better value. Then if you look downmarket a bit, the cheapest iOS offering is an iPhone 3GS 8GB Black at 469 while you could get a Samsung S5570 Galaxy Mini for 120.

I know in the local high school Android phones are propagating like wildfire while iOS devices are present in single digits.
post #14 of 70
It's simple, Android will eventually swarm over the iphone. It's already happening, having 50 Android phones in every cell store in the USA quickly overshadows the two iphones sitting in the corner. Walk into any Verizon store and you will see how huge android is compared to the iphone.

Iphone isn't dead, but it will be segmented to a smaller and smaller share of the market ... eventually. Unless they get the iphone on every USA carrier FAST.
post #15 of 70
I own a 3GS, my wife has an iPhone 4, and we also own a Mac Mini (hers) and an Apple TV. My wife plans to use her yearly AT&T upgrade to get the iPhone 5 and we do plan on getting another Mac Mini to replace my aging gaming PC (which is now nothing more than loud )

So we are definitely an Apple family. Nonetheless, for my upgrade I decided to go with the Samsung Focus, a Windows 7 Phone. The phone's build quality doesn't quite match the level of my 3GS and it doesn't come close to my wife's iPhone 4. It is not bad, but not great build quality. I have it in a case and have no worries, just as I did with my 3GS.

The Windows Phone OS really has got my attention. Fantastic OS. Smooth and Silky OS. Better than iOS 4? IMHO, yes! iOS 4 is getting long in the toogh. Better than iOS 5? No idea yet. Probably on equal terms. Both are so much better than Android for ease of use.!

I will use my (soon to be) my iPhone 4 as a glorified iPod Touch/Skype Phone and remote for our Apple TV and sell the 3GS soon.

So I guess this puts me in the 6% of the Market that doesn't have iOS, Android or a RIM phone. It is unfortunate that so many folks have Android and don't even consider the Windows Phone just out of ignorance or perhaps their decision not to buy is based on FDU.
I know many folks will bash the Windows Phone (many Apple fanatics are just haters of anything non-Apple at heart) but the Windows Phone OS (they need a shorter name) really is much better than Android for all-around use.

So has anybody actually given the Windows Phone OS a chance without dismissing it based on the fact it is a MS product?
post #16 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by FreeRange View Post

It is obvious that only Wintards are buying windows 7 phones as this company is now irrelevant in the mobile market but the clowns using them haven't figured it out yet.

I guess you have already answered my question. Typical attitude I had hoped not to see, but not surprising. So many Apple and Windows fanatics are so close-minded.
post #17 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrispoe View Post

Good thing you got the $25 virgin mobile plan when you did, new costumers as of 7/20 will have to pay $35 for that plan.

Are they going to grandfather those who already have a plan?
post #18 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by lamewing View Post

So has anybody actually given the Windows Phone OS a chance without dismissing it based on the fact it is a MS product?

For me, yes. I am curious to see it and play with Windows Phone 7. But but have no interest in helping MS take over another market and stifle innovation as it historically does.

I am thrilled MS missed the cellular boat and hope to see MS fail in ever achieving much market share. Fact is, whenever MS gets a monopoly they use that to insert customization that protect their market share rather than continue to innovate.
post #19 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by lamewing View Post

Are they going to grandfather those who already have a plan?

Yes, as long as you don't change plans or let your account expire, so you can still upgrade phones and keep the $25 plan too.
post #20 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by chabig View Post

The chart says 27% of WinPhone buyers are "very satisfied", not 57%. Something is very fishy.

Nothing is fishy. The 27% are for "Windows OS", the 57% are for "Windows Phone 7" only. As the article states that the satisfaction rating for "Windows Mobile" was only 14%, it only takes some rule of three and you can determine the mix (should be around 70% Windows Mobile and 30% Windows Phone 7 sales). Now, if these numbers are true... no idea.
post #21 of 70
I care a lot more that Apple doesn't kowtow to the wireless companies than specific usability differences between iOS and Android.

I have a Sprint EVO through work and, annoying as Android is, the biggest pain in the arse is that Sprint insists on loading a bunch of undeleteable apps like Sprint TV that I would never use (and with built-in ads for channels I would never watch).

I find that far more annoying than the fact that the Android UI was designed by a bunch of kids incapable of cooking their own meals or doing their own laundry.

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post #22 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacInsider2 View Post

It's simple, Android will eventually swarm over the iphone. It's already happening, having 50 Android phones in every cell store in the USA quickly overshadows the two iphones sitting in the corner. Walk into any Verizon store and you will see how huge android is compared to the iphone.

Iphone isn't dead, but it will be segmented to a smaller and smaller share of the market ... eventually. Unless they get the iphone on every USA carrier FAST.

Market share does not matter.
Average Sale Price matter.

Apple makes over 50 billion in iPhones sales today. That is pretty good.
post #23 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

These numbers are great, but unconvincing. The problem is that Apple has not had sales figures that match up against these intentions from what we've seen from Nielsen. Look at the 50% for June-10. If you actually look at Nielsen's sales numbers for the 90 days after June-10, Apple never even got close to 50% of the smartphone market - in fact they never even passed Android for those 3 months.

Unfortunately I'd have to conclude that this survey has either a significant sample bias, or some sort of methodological problem with its questions.

The reason is simple. The iPhone is not available to everybody. Additionally, a lot of people who get Android are not smartphone customers. They are due for a free upgrade, walk into a store to get a feature phone like they have always owned but walk outmwith a free android instead.
post #24 of 70
This article isn't about sales or which OS is better, it's about brand loyalty. Apple has it.
post #25 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveMcM76 View Post

This survey is all about OS preference which may not be at all related to what people actually buy... 46% may well prefer iOS but then go on to buy Android or some other phone due to a factor beyond the OS - my guess would be price is a key here...

If I had to express a preference between a Ferrari or a Ford I'd choose Ferrari.... doesn't mean I'm ever likely to buy one...

That's what I thought at first, but looking at the survey's press release itself they claim it's purchase intent and not preference.
post #26 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Does either of you know how Nielsen comes up with its numbers?

Nielsen will be getting its numbers from a survey too, though likely a larger one than this since they have the biggest consumer panel in the US. Neilsen's market penetration numbers very closely match ComScore's for iOS and Android, so I'm willing to assume that their sample is representative. There's some difference between the two for WinMo & RIM, which is probably because those two platforms are very concentrated in a few demographics and geographic areas - so hard to get good sample.

Also Nielsen's numbers are retrospective, not prospective - meaning there's less potential for methdological problems in the way that they're phrasing the questions. There's a big difference between 'What phone do you want to buy' and 'What phone do you plan to buy', but there's really no way to misconstrue 'What phone did you last buy'.
post #27 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by shompa View Post

Market share does not matter.
Average Sale Price matter.

Apple makes over 50 billion in iPhones sales today. That is pretty good.

50 billion? I think you're combining the other iOS devices in on that figure. Also, please provide citation. Thanks.

P.s. Yes, you are off: http://www.betanews.com/joewilcox/ar...iOS/1304002204
post #28 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by iStud View Post

But the only data point you pick happens to be the one that does not follow the trend! That is the one that is obviously biased. All the other points seem to follow a credible trend.

I'm just saying that the raw numbers are clearly off either due to sample bias or because consumers are reporting preference and not purchase intent - in spite of the survey claiming to be the latter.

I picked the number that was most obviously out because it's clearest in that case, but you can see it with all the 2011 numbers. Apple hasn't outsold android in 2011 in the US - they've done really well but not THAT well.

The trends in these numbers may well reflect underlying trends, we do see a big increase in Apple preference for 2011 that reflects the increase in actual purchasing that did take place. I'm saying that we shouldn't expect to see Apple at 48% of smartphone sales for the next quarter.
post #29 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacInsider2 View Post

50 billion? I think you're combining the other iOS devices in on that figure. Also, please provide citation. Thanks.

P.s. Yes, you are off: http://www.betanews.com/joewilcox/ar...iOS/1304002204

They made $22.7billion in iPhone revenue over the last two quarters, $16billion, in the previous two quarters to that. Given that trend we give $28billion for the next two quarters, which would actually mean that he would be right for Apple's fiscal 2011.
It's not what he said of course, but by his standards that's pretty accurate.
post #30 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacInsider2 View Post

For me, yes. I am curious to see it and play with Windows Phone 7. But but have no interest in helping MS take over another market and stifle innovation as it historically does.

I am thrilled MS missed the cellular boat and hope to see MS fail in ever achieving much market share. Fact is, whenever MS gets a monopoly they use that to insert customization that protect their market share rather than continue to innovate.


Times have changed. The mobile market isn't the same as the PC market of the past. MS isn't going to take over the mobile market. I seriously doubt any one mobile OS will take a majority share of the market. Plus, market share doesn't mean anything. Profits are what matters.
post #31 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by lamewing View Post

Times have changed. The mobile market isn't the same as the PC market of the past. MS isn't going to take over the mobile market. I seriously doubt any one mobile OS will take a majority share of the market. Plus, market share doesn't mean anything. Profits are what matters.

Android is selling 49% of US smartphones currently, and has been for all 2011. I'd say it's pretty plausible that they'll end up with 51% of the total smartphone population at some point - so a narrow majority.

Nothing like the 90%+ that windows hit of course.
post #32 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

What other points follow a credible trend? The only meaningful trend that I can see is what people are actually buying. On that, the surveys have been consistently off. But maybe I missed something you spotted?

I was talking about the graph shown, and the clear spike that the Jun2010 shows. But, yet again, I understand data analysis and statistics, and obviously you don't. While what you say may be true, it does not refer to the graph, neither to what I pointed out. So . . .
post #33 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

I'm just saying that the raw numbers are clearly off either due to sample bias or because consumers are reporting preference and not purchase intent - in spite of the survey claiming to be the latter.

I picked the number that was most obviously out because it's clearest in that case, but you can see it with all the 2011 numbers. Apple hasn't outsold android in 2011 in the US - they've done really well but not THAT well.

The trends in these numbers may well reflect underlying trends, we do see a big increase in Apple preference for 2011 that reflects the increase in actual purchasing that did take place. I'm saying that we shouldn't expect to see Apple at 48% of smartphone sales for the next quarter.

Of course! You are correct. And anyone mistaking purchase intentions with market share, has obviously some issues to solve! What they show is brand presence. Perhaps if you have the data, you could show a correlation graph between actual market share and purchase intentions. If the correlation is low then it means that these surveys are useless, but if there is a correlation, even if the market share numbers are smaller as you suggest, larger purchase intention may correlate with larger market share, in a proportional manner. I don't know. That would be more valuable than just pointing out that the numbers are different. Which of course they are expected to be... I hope I make sense.
post #34 of 70
All these "surveys" and "statistics" about iOS and Android sales or "planned sales" really get old. The only thing that matters to Apple is the Q2 numbers they will be reporting tomorrow. There sure are a lot of "analysts" making a living off of reporting nonsense and speculation.
post #35 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

Android is selling 49% of US smartphones currently, and has been for all 2011. I'd say it's pretty plausible that they'll end up with 51% of the total smartphone population at some point - so a narrow majority.

Nothing like the 90%+ that windows hit of course.

That is assuming that Apple isn't able to win an injunction against HTC and potentially all of Android in the U.S. Hardly the entire world, but it could change things here. If Apple wins they have the option of licensing the tech to all Android manufacturers, or just saying NO!!!!. Apple doesn't need the extra cash, so they can play hardball and still come out ahead. If this were to happen (long shot), MS would have the opportunity to add SO many new Windows Phone customers. Why? Some people just don't like the iPhone, some don't want to have the most popular device, some don't like Apple, etc.
post #36 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by cnocbui View Post

This flies in the face of a previous AI article:http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...for_apple.html

So, people are not actually doing what this survey suggests they should. I think cloudgazer is correct, there is probably some inherent bias in the survey.

I can also see a lot of people saying one thing in answer to a survey then changing their minds when they actually come to pay for a device and find out how over priced an IP4 is. With my provider, a Samsung Galaxy S II is €470 and a IP4 is €589. The SGSII is quite obviously much better value. Then if you look downmarket a bit, the cheapest iOS offering is an iPhone 3GS 8GB Black at €469 while you could get a Samsung S5570 Galaxy Mini for €120.

I know in the local high school Android phones are propagating like wildfire while iOS devices are present in single digits.

And I remembered some people here, not so long ago, defended Android as not being cheaper than iPhone. hey hey
post #37 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by iStud View Post

Perhaps if you have the data, you could show a correlation graph between actual market share and purchase intentions.

Alas I only have the public data from Nielsen, given in their last press release. Which certainly suggest a correlation is plausible, but there isn't really enough data there for anything conclusive.

post #38 of 70
We kinda knew that was coming once Verzon got the iphone. There were quite a few people who went to Android because that's what was available on Verizon. Now their contracts are coming up and I'd say many have switched to iPhones. The trend will likely continue with people buying new phones or switching from a blackberry. If apple does come up with a low cost iPhone that will push the trend even higher.

Android appeals to some, but not most consumers
post #39 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

Nielsen will be getting its numbers from a survey too, though likely a larger one than this since they have the biggest consumer panel in the US. Neilsen's market penetration numbers very closely match ComScore's for iOS and Android, so I'm willing to assume that their sample is representative. There's some difference between the two for WinMo & RIM, which is probably because those two platforms are very concentrated in a few demographics and geographic areas - so hard to get good sample.

Also Nielsen's numbers are retrospective, not prospective - meaning there's less potential for methdological problems in the way that they're phrasing the questions. There's a big difference between 'What phone do you want to buy' and 'What phone do you plan to buy', but there's really no way to misconstrue 'What phone did you last buy'.

Hi Cloudgazer! I think your comments are the best and most relevant on AI.
post #40 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by matrix07 View Post

And I remembered some people here, not so long ago, defended Android as not being cheaper than iPhone. hey hey

Droidtards should get lost! All Droid phones are made of cheap-looking plastic! They have no taste! The Vic guy dares to compare SJ to the Big Brother? He himself is a former Microsoft exec. Bill Gates is the Big Brother, not SJ.
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