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Notes of interest from Apple's Q3 2011 conference call - Page 2

post #41 of 60
7/19/11 at 4:14pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by macshark View Post

Not sure, this is where Android phones are aggressively winning market share, Apple may want to respond before it is too late. Remember iPod shuffle?

It's a little bit of a different situation because of the sheer size of the market. When Apple launched the shuffle and the nano the iPod classic market wasn't growing at anything like 100% YoY, the existing iPod market was still fairly small and the Shuffle didn't share components with the iPod significantly.

There's no evidence that a user lost to Android is lost forever, in fact the experience with Verizon indicates quite the opposite.
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post #42 of 60
7/19/11 at 4:17pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrooksT View Post

Keep in mind that you pay a ~30% premium over market cap when you buy a company.

ARM I could see; that would really wrench Android. The others, not so much -- why buy companies you've beaten in the market and whose value is only going to go down?

What I would like to see is a Sony purchase. Go vertical integration on content, media distribution, and home electronics. Market cap is about $27B, so figure $35B, or half of the cash reserves.

I can't think of a single thing that would make a $36 billion purchase of Sony worthwhile. They would have to get rid of most of their product lines as they don't fit Apple, and then Sony would be worth almost nothing.
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post #43 of 60
7/19/11 at 4:20pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

It's a little bit of a different situation because of the sheer size of the market. When Apple launched the shuffle and the nano the iPod classic market wasn't growing at anything like 100% YoY, the existing iPod market was still fairly small and the Shuffle didn't share components with the iPod significantly.

There's no evidence that a user lost to Android is lost forever, in fact the experience with Verizon indicates quite the opposite.

Android isn't considered to be "sticky", because other than the cost of the phone, Android users buy almost no apps. Almost of the apps they do get, and it's a lot fewer than iOS users, are free
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post #44 of 60
7/19/11 at 4:26pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jcoz View Post

See I just didn't get that at all from those comments. His preference for post paid, and saying that they are still trying to figure out how best to play in that market dont seem like a company just months away from launching a new product to compete there.

I could be wrong and I hope I am.

It's all in how you interpret it. To me the fact that he said the prepaid market is a market they "need to play in" versus his previous statement of it being a market they were trying to "figure out", means there's more importance on them entering the prepaid market now than before. In my mind it means that their entrance in prepaid could be imminent so that they can reach the "kinds volumes they'd like to have."
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post #45 of 60
7/19/11 at 4:31pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackbook View Post

It's all in how you interpret it. To me the fact that he said the prepaid market is a market they "need to play in" versus his previous statement of it being a market they were trying to "figure out", means there's more importance on them entering the prepaid market now than before. In my mind it means that their entrance in prepaid could be imminent so that they can reach the "kinds volumes they'd like to have."

He was saying that they would like to convert pre-paid customers to post-paid customers. He also recognized that in these countries, credit is a problem because credit isn't as well developed there yet.
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post #46 of 60
7/19/11 at 4:38pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

He was saying that they would like to convert pre-paid customers to post-paid customers. He also recognized that in these countries, credit is a problem because credit isn't as well developed there yet.

Yes, and that makes sense, because Apple would surely prefer to sell you a $650 phone than a $300 phone, not to mention in a post paid market you're more likely to upgrade more often. 2x the cost, at 2x the rate of upgrade. Definitley in Apples best interest.

As for the sheer amount of defunct phones there have to be (and will be) in the world, that's another issue entirely.
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post #47 of 60
7/19/11 at 4:45pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Android isn't considered to be "sticky", because other than the cost of the phone, Android users buy almost no apps. Almost of the apps they do get, and it's a lot fewer than iOS users, are free

You personally don't consider Android sticky, or it's not considered so by most industry watchers? A report just the other day, mentioned by AppleInsider, indicated both platforms had their "sticky" adherents.

And Android users may buy fewer apps simply because some apps that require a purchase in the AppStore are offered free in the Android Market. Same app but different revenue model. But going on to claim Android owners buy almost no apps deserves some compelling evidence, or instead clarification that it's your opinion and not a fact. Sometimes it's not clear which of your statements are fact and which are opinion.

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"No theatrics and no more personal attacks, just stick to the logic and tell me why I don't have any argument ~ Jragosta/2012

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"No theatrics and no more personal attacks, just stick to the logic and tell me why I don't have any argument ~ Jragosta/2012

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post #48 of 60
7/19/11 at 4:52pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Android isn't considered to be "sticky", because other than the cost of the phone, Android users buy almost no apps. Almost of the apps they do get, and it's a lot fewer than iOS users, are free

I think there's more to it than that, platform stickiness due to applications wasn't the primary problem for Apple gaining desktop market-share back in the 90s. The problem was that Windows had a really strong network-effect, and became in effect a natural monopoly.

Mobile doesn't seem to be going the same way, data level compatibility between devices is high - the same music, books, video etc are for the most part available on each. Apps of course are not, but we're unlikely to see a single 'killer app' like Office that makes a particular mobile platform the one you MUST own.

Even if Android does turn out to have some stickiness from the supplied Google Apps, it still doesn't mean that Apple faces an existential threat due to their burgeoning market-share.
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post #49 of 60
7/19/11 at 5:00pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

You personally don't consider Android sticky, or it's not considered so by most industry watchers? A report just the other day, mentioned by AppleInsider, indicated both platforms had their "sticky" adherents.

Horace Dediu did some work discussing this at the conceptual level in January

http://www.asymco.com/2011/01/04/how-sticky-is-android/

I don't think we have any really good empirical data as yet, to compare the relative stickiness. Any good market research asking people about intent to switch between platforms is presumably stuck behind paywalls
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post #50 of 60
7/19/11 at 5:52pm
Re: Apple should consider splitting up operationally. The more these mobile tween products consume Apple's attention, the more they seem to drop the ball on professional products.

Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

Just go away and crawl back into your hole.

So that is the level of your reasoned argument against a perfectly acceptable point of view. You are clearly a Apple newbie who understands nothing about the history of the tech industry such as when there were suggestions that it might have been in the best interests of Microsoft amongst others that their respective divisions were broken up and if they had been then their level of innovation may not have been stymied in the various departments as it clearly has been by being the behemoth that it is.

Apple is now primarily a phone manufacturer / design company as that is where the majority of it's revenue and profits are made and so the Mac and OSX is secondary. I just hope that Apple still recognises that the basis of it's success is reliant on it's software and it's ease of use and the integration between all platforms. With Lion they seem to have clearly dropped a ball as there is very little in it to excite pro users and Apple could easily repeat the same mistake as others before them have done as it is now their turn to be the behemoth.
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post #51 of 60
7/19/11 at 6:06pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

You personally don't consider Android sticky, or it's not considered so by most industry watchers? A report just the other day, mentioned by AppleInsider, indicated both platforms had their "sticky" adherents.

And Android users may buy fewer apps simply because some apps that require a purchase in the AppStore are offered free in the Android Market. Same app but different revenue model. But going on to claim Android owners buy almost no apps deserves some compelling evidence, or instead clarification that it's your opinion and not a fact. Sometimes it's not clear which of your statements are fact and which are opinion.

Not considered sticky by industry watchers. This is one I've bookmarked.

http://techpinions.com/android-could...nses-webos/806

That Android users buy almost no apps is well documented. It's not because apps paid for on iOs are available for Android for free. It's because apps that iOs users are willing to pay for aren't selling for Android, so the developers are going free, with Ads. Like Angry Birds. They tried the paid route and it didn't work. So they went free with Ads, and downloads went way up.
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post #52 of 60
7/19/11 at 6:13pm
At least it will go towards paying off the US deficit by as much as 0.0005%
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post #53 of 60
7/19/11 at 6:15pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

I think there's more to it than that, platform stickiness due to applications wasn't the primary problem for Apple gaining desktop market-share back in the 90s. The problem was that Windows had a really strong network-effect, and became in effect a natural monopoly.

Mobile doesn't seem to be going the same way, data level compatibility between devices is high - the same music, books, video etc are for the most part available on each. Apps of course are not, but we're unlikely to see a single 'killer app' like Office that makes a particular mobile platform the one you MUST own.

Even if Android does turn out to have some stickiness from the supplied Google Apps, it still doesn't mean that Apple faces an existential threat due to their burgeoning market-share.

It is complex. Free often beats paid. MS knows that very well, as they killed Netscape that way, and also killed Adobe Persuasion by putting PowerPoint in Office without raising the price, even though Persuasion was killing them in the market before.

Apple has several advantages, and the stickiness isn't just from apps. It's also from iTunes.

I wonder how many people actually depend on Google apps. From what I read in Computerworld and other industry pubs, most users are very light, and often use it a few times and then stop. It's been estimated that the user numbers are in the low millions. Not enough to cause a large sales burst for Android, and iOs users can use them as well.
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post #54 of 60
7/19/11 at 6:21pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

Horace Dediu did some work discussing this at the conceptual level in January

http://www.asymco.com/2011/01/04/how-sticky-is-android/

I don't think we have any really good empirical data as yet, to compare the relative stickiness. Any good market research asking people about intent to switch between platforms is presumably stuck behind paywalls

I remember that article. I thought I saved it, but I don't know what under.

It pretty much agrees. The network effects are less, but the apps are greater. At least, at this time. Later on, perhaps network effects will become more important. But even with PC DOs and Windows, the app problem was foremost. It was the software stupid, we were always told. You needed comparability with software. The huge expense of PC software makes those OSs' very sticky. So does the learning curve.

So what about phone (and tablet) apps? Well, it depends on how many you have, and want to keep.
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post #55 of 60
7/19/11 at 6:25pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Odysseus1923 View Post

Re: Apple should consider splitting up operationally. The more these mobile tween products consume Apple's attention, the more they seem to drop the ball on professional products.



So that is the level of your reasoned argument against a perfectly acceptable point of view. You are clearly a Apple newbie who understands nothing about the history of the tech industry such as when there were suggestions that it might have been in the best interests of Microsoft amongst others that their respective divisions were broken up and if they had been then their level of innovation may not have been stymied in the various departments as it clearly has been by being the behemoth that it is.

Apple is now primarily a phone manufacturer / design company as that is where the majority of it's revenue and profits are made and so the Mac and OSX is secondary. I just hope that Apple still recognises that the basis of it's success is reliant on it's software and it's ease of use and the integration between all platforms. With Lion they seem to have clearly dropped a ball as there is very little in it to excite pro users and Apple could easily repeat the same mistake as others before them have done as it is now their turn to be the behemoth.

I've been a user of FCP since Ver. 1.0. When it first came out, it was missing a LOT of pro features, and was criticized . But it was also acknowledged that with those features added, it would be very good, and a better way of doing things.

Now, I see the Pro's going about it again. But as with the original FCP, Apple will add missing features quickly. I'm willing to bet that in a year, which was about as long as it took for FCP, most of these issues will be forgotten.
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post #56 of 60
7/19/11 at 6:57pm
Melgross if you are going to include a previous quote then please use all of it otherwise it does not make sense and smacks of convenient selectivity.

i.e
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

Just go away and crawl back into your hole.

As to you other point I hope you are right but as the original poster was perhaps alluding to it may make for increased innovation if Apple was split up rather than the pro side getting left behind as it clearly has been for sometime now.
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post #57 of 60
7/19/11 at 7:10pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Odysseus1923 View Post

Melgross if you are going to include a previous quote then please use all of it otherwise it does not make sense and smacks of convenient selectivity.

i.e

As to you other point I hope you are right but as the original poster was perhaps alluding to it may make for increased innovation if Apple was split up rather than the pro side getting left behind as it clearly has been for sometime now.

The site does that. It eliminates the previous quote, and just includes the post I'm replying to.
I was replying to you anyway. I wasn't very happy about his post. It wasn't useful.
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post #58 of 60
7/19/11 at 9:06pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Apple has several advantages, and the stickiness isn't just from apps. It's also from iTunes.

I don't know many people that own significant quantities of iTunes video. I actually do myself, but I seem to be unusual in that regards, at least in the UK. iTunes music of course wouldn't be sticky anymore.
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post #59 of 60
7/20/11 at 7:40am
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

I don't know many people that own significant quantities of iTunes video. I actually do myself, but I seem to be unusual in that regards, at least in the UK. iTunes music of course wouldn't be sticky anymore.

Whatever. Industry thoughts are pretty much universal that Android is just not sticky, while iOS is. You can argue it all you want.
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post #60 of 60
7/20/11 at 9:45am
Yea, wise transition -- but WHERE is the iOS Apple TV App Store?!
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