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UBS ups 2011 iPad estimate to 39.9M, 63% market share

post #1 of 57
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Analysts for investment bank UBS raised their 2011 forecast for Apple's iPad on Wednesday, predicting total sales of 37.9 million units for a projected 63 percent market share.

Maynard Um issued a note to investors, noting that checks had indicated "soft sell-through for non-iPad tablets." He sees growth in the tablet industry being driven primarily by Apple's touchscreen tablet.

"The tablet market has seen a significant increase in shelf space and competition in the past quarter," Um said, adding that there is "limited visible differentiation" between non-iPad devices. Based on anecdotal retail checks, Samsung and Asustek are stand-outs, while Research in Motion and Hewlett Packard "do not appear to be gaining any critical mass."

According to his calculations, Samsung will sell 5 million tablets in 2011, while Asus is expected to sell 2.2 million. Meanwhile, RIM and HP are projected to sell 1.9 million and 0.8 million respectively.

"Although it is still early, a key risk for the industry could be on inventory correction, particularly for those vendors that are seeing more limited demand," Um wrote.



Looking ahead to 2012, the analyst raised the firm's forecast to 90 million, up from 80 million. UBS expects Apple to sell 53 million next year, leaving the company with a 58 percent share of the market. In the first half of calendar 2011, Apple sold 13.94 million iPads.

Um's upward revision of tablet estimates brings the device's ramp in line with the early stages of the LCD TV market. However, the analyst believes that tablet growth is being driven by utility and broader distribution, rather than the "mass market" pricing that spurred TV sales.

Retail channel checks show that "most stores have moved tablets to prime positions," with retailers like Best Buy created a separate "Tablet Zone" in their stores. According to Um, stores have cleared out older PC inventory and shelf space in order to make room for tablet displays. But, in spite of the increased visibility, he noted that "channel sell-in and sell-through appear likely to be two different stories for the majority of vendors not named Apple."

"Apple continues to dominate the tablet market with its iPad portfolio," he added. "At all retail channels we checked it was by far the most popular tablet being asked about, tested, and bought by consumers."

Alongside the bump in projected tablet sales, Um adjusted PC estimates for 2011 downward. He sees year over year PC growth coming in at 4.5 percent this year, compared to a previous estimate of 6.3 percent. After checking with PC retailers, Um does not expected to see "more aggressive promotions or buying in earnest until early September."
post #2 of 57
Where are the real numbers of non Apple tablets sold? What's with all this guessing and assumption game? The iPad is on it's 2nd version. How could we not by now have solid numbers of non Apple tablets sold.
post #3 of 57
If there really are that many android tablets out there then the question has to be, what on earth are people using them for?

http://www.netmarketshare.com/2011/0...-s-Competition
post #4 of 57
Quote:
Originally Posted by zindako View Post

Where are the real numbers of non Apple tablets sold? What's with all this guessing and assumption game? The iPad is on it's 2nd version. How could we not by now have solid numbers of non Apple tablets sold.

Basically because there's no requirement for companies shipping them to tell us assuming that they know.
post #5 of 57
Quote:
Originally Posted by zindako View Post

Where are the real numbers of non Apple tablets sold? What's with all this guessing and assumption game? The iPad is on it's 2nd version. How could we not by now have solid numbers of non Apple tablets sold.

Companies prefer to announce unit sales and specific revenues when they can be expressed positively. If the numbers reflect negatively then they try to hide them.
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post #6 of 57
Another really interesting thing is that even if we assume that the shipped tablet numbers reflected sales, we know from Google's market data that only around 1.3mil android 10inch tablets are in circulation, so the rest must all be 7inch style devices.

If so, and 7inchs are selling pretty well, and only Apple is selling in the 10inch category why are Lenovo making two different 10inchs? Why are Sony, and HTC releasing 10inchs? Why are HP making a 10inch? Why are Amazon rumoured to be making a 10inch?

It makes no sense. Hopefully soon we'll get a consumer survey and see what people are actually using, then things may clear up a bit.
post #7 of 57
Once MS gets into the market and sell tablets less than cost I would guess a 3% market share for them. Like pay people to buy 'em then say "We got a 30% market share." (over priced Office takes another hit)
post #8 of 57
Quote:
Originally Posted by zindako View Post

Where are the real numbers of non Apple tablets sold? What's with all this guessing and assumption game? The iPad is on it's 2nd version. How could we not by now have solid numbers of non Apple tablets sold.

Google has stated, they've activated about a million Android 3.x devices; "real" Android tablets.

Of course, they never say how many were deactivated do they?
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post #9 of 57
competition is good. I ilke the fact that the iPad is dropping in market share while gaining in sales. It sounds really bad for apple but its not that bad and it will make it better for us. theres just one thing that bothers me...hp's touchpad. I don't know why but that one just bothers me. I know samsungs is a rip, playbooks fine, xooms dead blah blah blah but I'm just soo happy deep down that the ho touchpad is dieing.

also, how has the market share dropping so fast? Every day i see people with iPads. Ive seen one sammy tablet and one playbook...those don't add up. Alos the playbook was one of the top selling when it came at 500,000 units. Ipad=9 million. Doesn't add up...even across the 10 or so available tablets
post #10 of 57
I've seen Android tablet market share estimates based on screen size, OS version (both derived from Google's numbers) and internet usage. They all seem to converge on about 1% of total Android activations being tablets, which puts us at something like 1.2 millions Android tablets in use. Let's be generous and call it 1.5 million.

Against Apple's figures of 28.73 million sold (and that's really sold, not shipped) it's really hard to see how actual Android market share is much more than 5% at this point, yet we keep seeing this articles that talk about 20, 30, even 40% numbers for Android.

I guess a horse race is better for the tech media so they're going to keep on pretending that there's some kind of spirited competition going on, but really: it's not even close.
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post #11 of 57
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

Another really interesting thing is that even if we assume that the shipped tablet numbers reflected sales, we know from Google's market data that only around 1.3mil android 10inch tablets are in circulation, so the rest must all be 7inch style devices.

If so, and 7inchs are selling pretty well, and only Apple is selling in the 10inch category why are Lenovo making two different 10inchs? Why are Sony, and HTC releasing 10inchs? Why are HP making a 10inch? Why are Amazon rumoured to be making a 10inch?

It makes no sense. Hopefully soon we'll get a consumer survey and see what people are actually using, then things may clear up a bit.

I'm willing to bet Apple will release a 7" device this fall... an iPod touch that is, not an iPad. A 7" inch screen is too small for iPad apps, but would be great for iPod touch apps. They could even keep the resolution the same.

But of course, all the analysts will group it with media players and not consider it a tablet.
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post #12 of 57
Quote:
Originally Posted by pooman625 View Post

also, how has the market share dropping so fast? Every day i see people with iPads. Ive seen one sammy tablet and one playbook...those don't add up. Alos the playbook was one of the top selling when it came at 500,000 units. Ipad=9 million. Doesn't add up...even across the 10 or so available tablets

Market share doesn't mean sales to end user, it means how many have been sold and put on the market.
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post #13 of 57
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

Another really interesting thing is that even if we assume that the shipped tablet numbers reflected sales, we know from Google's market data that only around 1.3mil android 10inch tablets are in circulation, so the rest must all be 7inch style devices.

If so, and 7inchs are selling pretty well, and only Apple is selling in the 10inch category why are Lenovo making two different 10inchs? Why are Sony, and HTC releasing 10inchs? Why are HP making a 10inch? Why are Amazon rumoured to be making a 10inch?

It makes no sense. Hopefully soon we'll get a consumer survey and see what people are actually using, then things may clear up a bit.

That's not my take on Google's numbers. The tablet category is shown to be from 7"-10", while the next size down for some reason slightly overlaps on the 7" end. That might just be an artifact of how they drew their graph, but certainly 7" devices aren't excluded from the tablet (extra large) designation, and there's no reason to think that there's some significant number of 7" tablets that are mysteriously being assigned to the lower sized group and thus excluded from tablet-hood.
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post #14 of 57
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

I've seen Android tablet market share estimates based on screen size, OS version (both derived from Google's numbers) and internet usage. They all seem to converge on about 1% of total Android activations being tablets, which puts us at something like 1.2 millions Android tablets in use. Let's be generous and call it 1.5 million.

Against Apple's figures of 28.73 million sold (and that's really sold, not shipped) it's really hard to see how actual Android market share is much more than 5% at this point, yet we keep seeing this articles that talk about 20, 30, even 40% numbers for Android.

I guess a horse race is better for the tech media so they're going to keep on pretending that there's some kind of spirited competition going on, but really: it's not even close.

Actually if you look at the browser share study I linked you'll see that the 7inch G-tab is the top rated android device, at a little more than the Xoom. So plausibly as many as 3million Android tablets, based on the assumed 1.5mil 10inchs.

Thing is the same study shows the iPad being used over 30times as much as the two top Android tablets combined. Implying under a million android tabs at both sizes combined.

So either Honeycomb users visit the Google app store disproportionately often and are even rarer than we thought, or android has almost no penetration in western markets and is confined to asia.
post #15 of 57
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

That's not my take on Google's numbers. The tablet category is shown to be from 7"-10", while the next size down for some reason slightly overlaps on the 7" end. That might just be an artifact of how they drew their graph, but certainly 7" devices aren't excluded from the tablet (extra large) designation, and there's no reason to think that there's some significant number of 7" tablets that are mysteriously being assigned to the lower sized group.

No - we know that the 7inch tabs run Froyo, and the X-L numbers precisely match the Honeycomb numbers. So the X-L tabs are only the 10inchers.
Edit: Either that or there are a lot of people running experimental builds of honeycomb on their g-tabs.
post #16 of 57
Quote:
Originally Posted by mjtomlin View Post

But of course, all the analysts will group it with media players and not consider it a tablet.

They're including the 5inch Dell Streak, so presumably they would.
post #17 of 57
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Maynard Um issued a note to investors, noting that checks had indicated "soft sell-through for non-iPad tablets."

He must have been misquoted, for I'm sure he meant "smooth sell-through."
post #18 of 57
I travel a lot for work and just got back from the airport. In a year I've never seen a non-iPad in an airport or at my customers. The only non-iPad I've seen in the wild was one of my barber's owns...a Blackberry. My other barber has an iPad 2. All of my business customers either have iPads or are buying them. All of them.
post #19 of 57
post #20 of 57
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post


Area 51? The SCP Foundation? Warehouse 13?

Originally Posted by helia

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post #21 of 57
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Area 51? The SCP Foundation? Warehouse 13?

1) I assume he means that is a warehouse full of unsold Android tablets.

2) I think the screenshot is from Indiana Jones, where the Arc of the Covenent is stored, so it is Area 51.
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post #22 of 57
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

1) I assume he means that is a warehouse full of unsold Android tablets.

2) I think the screenshot is from Indiana Jones, where the Arc of the Covenent is stored, so it is Area 51.

Indeed

Tomorrow we get Moto's results I believe, so we may find out how many Xooms are out there sitting in warehouses.
post #23 of 57
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

Another really interesting thing is that even if we assume that the shipped tablet numbers reflected sales, we know from Google's market data that only around 1.3mil android 10inch tablets are in circulation, so the rest must all be 7inch style devices.

If so, and 7inchs are selling pretty well, and only Apple is selling in the 10inch category why are Lenovo making two different 10inchs? Why are Sony, and HTC releasing 10inchs? Why are HP making a 10inch? Why are Amazon rumoured to be making a 10inch?

It makes no sense. Hopefully soon we'll get a consumer survey and see what people are actually using, then things may clear up a bit.

"Shipped" = into the channel
"In circulation" = purchased by an end user and detected in use by Google

These two are not equal, differing by the number of units stuck in inventory at retail distributors. So unless you have information on the type and number of units in inventory, your arithmetic above is almost useless.

Update: Ah, now I see your assumption at the top. Very bad assumption, which renders your conclusion equally faulty.
Thompson
post #24 of 57
Quote:
Originally Posted by thompr View Post

So unless you have information on the type and number of units in inventory, your arithmetic above is almost useless.

Actually what it does is demonstrate two things, that 7inches aren't selling any better than 10inches because Android makers are rushing out 10inches, and 10inches are selling far more poorly than shipping numbers indicate.

ie. sell through really is bad.
post #25 of 57
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

Actually what it does is demonstrate two things, that 7inches aren't selling any better than 10inches because Android makers are rushing out 10inches, and 10inches are selling far more poorly than shipping numbers indicate.

ie. sell through really is bad.

Exactly, but your original assumption in the previous post (first sentence) was that sell through was good, and your intermediate conclusion was that 7 inch units were selling well, leading to your perceived contradiction.

Just by removing the sell through assumption, we remove the contradiction. The convoluted way that you approached the argument made me miss that you had come to the same conclusion by the back door.

Thompson
post #26 of 57
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

Against Apple's figures of 28.73 million sold (and that's really sold, not shipped) it's really hard to see how actual Android market share is much more than 5% at this point, yet we keep seeing this articles that talk about 20, 30, even 40% numbers for Android...... but really: it's not even close.

Yep, you're right; this does seem to me like a media-/analyst-created horse race.
post #27 of 57
Quote:
Originally Posted by thompr View Post

Exactly, but your original assumption in the previous post (first sentence) was that sell through was good, and your intermediate conclusion was that 7 inch units were selling well, leading to your perceived contradiction.

Just by removing the sell through assumption, we remove the contradiction. The convoluted way that you approached the argument made me miss that you had come to the same conclusion by the back door.

Thompson

It's a fairly standard logical tool - reductio ad absurdam. Assuming the shipment figures carry through to sales results in a fallacy and thus we can discount it.

What I think is really interesing is the discrepancy between the browser based numbers and the google market based numbers, the only explanation I can think of is that g-tabs are all being sold in Korea and China - and have no penetration in the EU or US.
post #28 of 57
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

It's a fairly standard logical tool - reductio ad absurdam.

Indeed. In mathematics, also known as "proof by contradiction".

But typically when one uses it, one states first what they intend to prove. Sometimes they even finish off with "quod erat demonstrandum" or QED. Also, when employing these more roundabout logical tools - another example in math is induction - one typically states outright that that's what they are up to, for the sake of clarity.

You did none of these things, leaving only the absurd result hanging there. In the subsequent post, you gave your QED.

Thompson
post #29 of 57
I still stand by my beginning of the year prediction of 40 million sold for 2011.
post #30 of 57
Quote:
Originally Posted by thompr View Post

Indeed. In mathematics, also known as "proof by contradiction".

But typically when one uses it, one states first what they intend to prove. Sometimes they even finish off with "quod erat demonstrandum" or QED. Also, when employing these more roundabout logical tools - another example in math is induction - one typically states outright that that's what they are up to, for the sake of clarity.

You did none of these things, leaving only the absurd result hanging there. In the subsequent post, you gave your QED.

Thompson

Well said.
post #31 of 57
Apple should and will hold 75 - 80% market in the Tablet space in 2011 and beyond.
post #32 of 57
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Yep, you're right; this does seem to me like a media-/analyst-created horse race.

On your mark, get set, GO!!!!11!1!!11!



vs.

post #33 of 57
Quote:
Originally Posted by thompr View Post

You did none of these things, leaving only the absurd result hanging there. In the subsequent post, you gave your QED.
Thompson

Yes, because in this particular instance I don't think it's strong enough to claim as a definite conclusion, though I think it's certainly the most plausible one. It's also possible that the Android tablet makers are all idiotically ignoring the 7inch category. It's possible that Honeycomb users don't use the android market, or browse the web - maybe they use their tablets just for watching pirated movies. Lots of things are possible.

What is certain is that our current data doesn't fit together.

For example if we estimate number of honeycomb tabs from the Android market data we have 1.3 million, but from the web browser data we would have 300k. That's without even getting into shipment numbers!
post #34 of 57
I know that this is a apple centric site but their is a lot of unnecessary hatred towards android. I recently saw a post on a website that cited the galaxy tab having about 800,000 units shipped the asks transformer is around a bit half million shipped and it however is sold out in most stores. The acer a500 is also a selling a lot of units. I know none of these tablets are close to the ipad's sells but it shows that more then a million half units sold. The tablet market is still fairly new to consumers most people see tablets as an overpriced media consumption device. The ipad is primary sold to apple faithful, as the rival tablets are sold to tech enthusiasts.

Plus android tablets are not bad I like my iconic tab. I love that I can go to some of my favorite websites on it. I crash early and I like to watch south park and the colbert report at work during my breaks.
post #35 of 57
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple v. Samsung View Post

I know that this is a apple centric site but their is a lot of unnecessary hatred towards android. I recently saw a post on a website that cited the galaxy tab having about 800,000 units shipped the asks transformer is around a bit half million shipped and it however is sold out in most stores. The acer a500 is also a selling a lot of units. I know none of these tablets are close to the ipad's sells but it shows that more then a million half units sold. The tablet market is still fairly new to consumers most people see tablets as an overpriced media consumption device.

This isn't hate, this is simple curiosity. I've seen far larger numbers than 800k reported for G-Tab shipments, but the web data suggests that g-tab is far less, more like 400k.

Samsung reports results on the 29th, moto on the 28th, so we might get more accurate shipment numbers from them then, but we're still left puzzling with how those shipments translate into sales.

Quote:
The ipad is primary sold to apple faithful, as the rival tablets are sold to tech enthusiasts.

Yes that's the assumption, but the comscore data tells a different story. They looked at iPad ownership and normalized for current smartphone ownership to produce an index.

http://www.comscoredatamine.com/2011...pad-in-europe/

Turns out Samsung smartphone owners are as or more likely to own an iPad than iPhone owners.
post #36 of 57
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

Yes, because in this particular instance I don't think it's strong enough to claim as a definite conclusion, though I think it's certainly the most plausible one. It's also possible that the Android tablet makers are all idiotically ignoring the 7inch category. It's possible that Honeycomb users don't use the android market, or browse the web - maybe they use their tablets just for watching pirated movies. Lots of things are possible.

What is certain is that our current data doesn't fit together.

For example if we estimate number of honeycomb tabs from the Android market data we have 1.3 million, but from the web browser data we would have 300k. That's without even getting into shipment numbers!

The bottom line to me is that your original post, taken on its own, was either a mess of confusion or a gallant, but unnecessary, quest for enlightenment. Two things should be fairly obvious to everyone by now, evidenced by retail distributor data and your own observations of the ten inch tablet invasion:

(1) Android tablet sell-through - of any variety - is currently pathetic, and
(2) Seven inch tablets are not desirable, for all the common sense reasons that Apple put forth many months ago.

The only mystery to me is why you spent so much time musing over these obvious answers to your dilemma. Most of us already understood this.

Thompson
post #37 of 57
Quote:
Originally Posted by thompr View Post

The bottom line to me is that your original post, taken on its own, was either a mess of confusion or a gallant, but unnecessary, quest for enlightenment. Two things should be fairly obvious to everyone by now, evidenced by retail distributor data and your own observations of the ten inch tablet invasion:

(1) Android tablet sell-through - of any variety - is currently pathetic, and
(2) Seven inch tablets are not desirable, for all the common sense reasons that Apple put forth many months ago.

The only mystery to me is why you spent so much time musing over these obvious answers to your dilemma. Most of us already understood this.

Thompson

Because the 10inch invasion point isn't being made by any of the commentators or analysts. AI doesn't even bother reporting on most of the new 10inchers and sites that do haven't noticed the discrepancy. The oddest part to me is that I don't think a 7inch device is necessarily a bad idea. If Apple ever did make one I could see it being a nice device for commuting.

The poor sell-through is generally assumed, and it's consistent with the data, but we still don't have a handle on just how poor it is - or what other factors are affecting android tablets market presence. I don't think we can yet exclude them being geographically limited, which would be bad for them but not as bad as them sitting in a warehouse. Any Asian readers care to comment? Are G-tabs huge in Seoul?

Anyway I have no problem with gallant quests for enlightenment. Enlightenment is never unnecessary.
post #38 of 57
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

Because the 10inch invasion point isn't being made by any of the commentators or analysts. AI doesn't even bother reporting on most of the new 10inchers and sites that do haven't noticed the discrepancy. The oddest part to me is that I don't think a 7inch device is necessarily a bad idea. If Apple ever did make one I could see it being a nice device for commuting.

The poor sell-through is generally assumed, and it's consistent with the data, but we still don't have a handle on just how poor it is - or what other factors are affecting android tablets market presence. I don't think we can yet exclude them being geographically limited, which would be bad for them but not as bad as them sitting in a warehouse. Any Asian readers care to comment? Are G-tabs huge in Seoul?

Anyway I have no problem with gallant quests for enlightenment. Enlightenment is never unnecessary.

A quest for enlightenment is good under any circumstances. But you are thrashing for answers when they are already available. (See last post.) Every quote we have from retail says Android tablet sell-through is bad.

And regarding 7 inch... there is neither anecdotal nor academic reason for its existence. How many people do you know suffering through that? Sure, sure, give me something that barely fits in a pocket (if it does), has crappy battery life, and makes me pinch and zoom most of the time. At least if I have an iPhone, I can fit my pocket and have decent battery life. I'm OK with zooming in when I have too, but if I have an iPad, I get a big screen and awesome battery life. And my apps work both ways. Done deal. Why get a "tweener" 7 inch that affords me neither advantage?

Thompson
post #39 of 57
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple v. Samsung View Post


The ipad is primary sold to apple faithful, as the rival tablets are sold to tech enthusiasts.

I know about 10 people with iPads... and only one of them is a Mac user.

And only a couple of them are iPhone users.

My $0.02
post #40 of 57
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

If there really are that many android tablets out there then the question has to be, what on earth are people using them for?

http://www.netmarketshare.com/2011/0...-s-Competition

Good point. To boot, where are they? In bookstores, Starbucks, subways and airports, all I see are laptops, iPads and some Kindles (and, increasingly, iPads are as visible as or even outnumber laptops).

The only answer I can come up with is this: All Android tablets are used for porn apps. After all, one would not run these apps in the public places mentioned. In other words, Porndroids make up the 30%+ of the tablet market Apple apparently does not own. Either that, or Android tablet owners disguise their possession as iPads or books, out of embarrassment.

As for tech enthusiasts preferring Android tablets, here is my take: I own, use and like both iPhones and Android phones. I also look back at the keyboard of my BB with a sense of "if only ...". So, I do consider myself quite the curious tech enthusiast who would spend more than necessary just for the fun of it. Yet, I have found zero reason to buy an Android tablet, despite having played with the tab quite a bit (although, to be fair, I had already purchased the iPad2 at that time).
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