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UBS ups 2011 iPad estimate to 39.9M, 63% market share - Page 2

post #41 of 57
7/28/11 at 7:47am
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

Tomorrow we get Moto's results I believe, so we may find out how many Xooms are out there sitting in warehouses.

No mention of the Xoom sales in the press release but they did good for a failing vendor using Android's anchor as a life preserver.
http://www.engadget.com/2011/07/28/m...-sales-for-q2/
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post #42 of 57
7/28/11 at 7:57am
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

No mention of the Xoom sales in the press release but they did good for a failing vendor using Android's anchor as a life preserver.

•

http://www.engadget.com/2011/07/28/m...-sales-for-q2/

We get the conference call at 5EDT - might be some juicy bits in there.
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post #43 of 57
7/28/11 at 8:51am
I wonder if this includes Nook Color sales? They sold about 3 million in the first quarter of 2011
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post #44 of 57
7/28/11 at 11:01am
Apple has valid points about iPads size but it is very apparent it is to big for some uses. It is rather surprising the number of Kindle type readers I see around. These are a perfect example of a device that leverages the smaller screen.

In the context of this discussion I have to wonder if these readers are included in analysts numbers. If so that could easily explain the percentages. The reality is I see more Kindles and Nooks in my travels than iPads. In part I think this is due to these devices being far more portable and useful in the field. If not Amazon I don't know what they are talking about here as I've haven't actually seen any of the other tablets be they Android, Playbook or that HP thing.

Now one could say Amazons tablet isn't a real tablet, that is it is too fixed function to compete with an iPad. But obviously I don't think analysts see it this way. Beyond that it really looks like Amazon is the only manufacture capable of competing with Apple. In a way that is a hilarious statement to make considering all the tech companies falling flat on their faces with tablets.

Quote:
Originally Posted by thompr View Post

The bottom line to me is that your original post, taken on its own, was either a mess of confusion or a gallant, but unnecessary, quest for enlightenment. Two things should be fairly obvious to everyone by now, evidenced by retail distributor data and your own observations of the ten inch tablet invasion:

(1) Android tablet sell-through - of any variety - is currently pathetic, and
(2) Seven inch tablets are not desirable, for all the common sense reasons that Apple put forth many months ago.

The only mystery to me is why you spent so much time musing over these obvious answers to your dilemma. Most of us already understood this.

Thompson
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post #45 of 57
7/28/11 at 11:10am
The last big trip I took was for leisure but have had somewhat similar experiences. People either had iPads or some sort of reader tablet. From the looks of it the majority of the readers where Kindles.

At work they are adopting iPads. This is a total shock actually as they have been firmly entrenched with Dell in the past. I actually think this is incredible as Apple hardware has been totally frowned upon in the past.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sevenfeet View Post

I travel a lot for work and just got back from the airport. In a year I've never seen a non-iPad in an airport or at my customers. The only non-iPad I've seen in the wild was one of my barber's owns...a Blackberry. My other barber has an iPad 2. All of my business customers either have iPads or are buying them. All of them.
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post #46 of 57
7/28/11 at 11:14am
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post

Apple has valid points about iPads size but it is very apparent it is to big for some uses. It is rather surprising the number of Kindle type readers I see around. These are a perfect example of a device that leverages the smaller screen.

In the context of this discussion I have to wonder if these readers are included in analysts numbers. If so that could easily explain the percentages. The reality is I see more Kindles and Nooks in my travels than iPads. In part I think this is due to these devices being far more portable and useful in the field. If not Amazon I don't know what they are talking about here as I've haven't actually seen any of the other tablets be they Android, Playbook or that HP thing.

Now one could say Amazons tablet isn't a real tablet, that is it is too fixed function to compete with an iPad. But obviously I don't think analysts see it this way. Beyond that it really looks like Amazon is the only manufacture capable of competing with Apple. In a way that is a hilarious statement to make considering all the tech companies falling flat on their faces with tablets.

I think price is a bigger selling point than size for these devices. And the reason they're much cheaper than the iPad is because they're relatively limited.

If the competition could build a full on 7" Android tablet for under $200 I have no doubt they'd be extremely popular and steal market share from Apple, but I don't think it would have much to do with people preferring the smaller screen.
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post #47 of 57
7/28/11 at 11:21am
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

I think price is a bigger selling point than size for these devices. And the reason they're much cheaper than the iPad is because they're relatively limited.

If the competition could build a full on 7" Android tablet for under $200 I have no doubt they'd be extremely popular and steal market share from Apple, but I don't think it would have much to do with people preferring the smaller screen.

The kindle at least has some significant advantages beyond price. If you want an ereader that you can use on the beach as well as in the living room then it's going to make sense. It's also cheap enough that you can own it and an iPad without feeling ridiculously guilty. Some people also swear that the eye-strain is lower on an eInk screen, though I think that's subjective.

as for 7inch tabs, they would definitely have a place for people living in cities like NY, London, Tokyo, Paris etc. who use crowded mass transit systems.
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post #48 of 57
7/28/11 at 11:37am
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

The kindle at least has some significant advantages beyond price. If you want an ereader that you can use on the beach as well as in the living room then it's going to make sense. It's also cheap enough that you can own it and an iPad without feeling ridiculously guilty. Some people also swear that the eye-strain is lower on an eInk screen, though I think that's subjective.

as for 7inch tabs, they would definitely have a place for people living in cities like NY, London, Tokyo, Paris etc. who use crowded mass transit systems.

I would argue that the Kindle is an acceptable experience for the price. It does have that one advantage under daylight, but if it were priced like an iPad I don't think very many people would choose it over the iPad. You can sell a one trick pony if it's cheap enough, since, as you say, it can be an adjunct to a general purpose device.

It's hard to say if the 7" size is compelling in its own right, since to date we haven't seen much in the way of a compelling example. Clearly, when they're priced near iPad levels, the assumed advantages aren't sufficient to capture any significant market. If 7" could be used to deliver a significantly cheaper device that didn't sacrifice performance I think they'd sell well, but that still wouldn't tell us if consumers were responding to size or price.
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post #49 of 57
7/28/11 at 12:23pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

It's hard to say if the 7" size is compelling in its own right, since to date we haven't seen much in the way of a compelling example. Clearly, when they're priced near iPad levels, the assumed advantages aren't sufficient to capture any significant market. If 7" could be used to deliver a significantly cheaper device that didn't sacrifice performance I think they'd sell well, but that still wouldn't tell us if consumers were responding to size or price.

Oh the price definitely has to be lower, but if Apple ever did make a 5inch or 7inch iPod Touch I'd have to think long and hard about it- again as an adjunct device.

I think what people need to remember is that most households will end up with multiple tablets in various form-factors. Dad buys an iPad, but Mom and the kids end up borrowing it so the family buys another, but still the kids keep fighting for access, so maybe they get 7inch tablets, etc. The tweener sizes also make a lot of sense if you want the device to double as an in car navigation system. It's rather like TVs, when I was a kid you had a single TV in the living room, but that's not the case anymore. Tablets aren't like PCs where you own one and it does everything you need.

I do think Apple needs to figure a better way to manage an entire household of devices so that it's seamless. I seem that being discussed on one of the 5x5 podcasts.
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post #50 of 57
7/28/11 at 2:24pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

No mention of the Xoom sales in the press release but they did good for a failing vendor using Android's anchor as a life preserver.
http://www.engadget.com/2011/07/28/m...-sales-for-q2/

Well they're claiming for tablets

Q1 - 250k
Q2 - 440k
Q3 - projected less than Q2 due to 'product transition'

Full Year projected - 1.3mil
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post #51 of 57
7/28/11 at 2:29pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

Well they're claiming for tablets

Q1 - 250k
Q2 - 440k
Q3 - projected less than Q2 due to 'product transition'

Full Year projected - 1.3mil

Thanks.

1.3 million tablets for the entire year? To put that into perspective Apple sold 1.3 million iPads in under 2 weeks (12.6 days) last quarter.
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post #52 of 57
7/28/11 at 2:41pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Thanks.

1.3 million tablets for the entire year? To put that into perspective Apple sold 1.3 million iPads in under 2 weeks (12.6 days) last quarter.

And that's shipments, they made no comment on the conference call about sell through, no comments on how many weeks inventory they were carrying, basically not much at all. The only hint we have is that they say 'Expanded distribution of the ATRIX™ 4G smartphone and Motorola XOOM tablets into Latin America, China, Korea, and Europe' implying a commensurate increase in channel inventory.

I may have misheard but it sounded like they're assuming that their Q4 tablet sales will rebound because they'll have LTE.

One thing that is really clear is that they're still a zombie. They added 300mil revenue in Q2 over Q1, and only gained 13ml in profits (reduced losses actually). They admitted that margins on the Xoom is far lower on their smartphones, essentially because they mispriced the thing.
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post #53 of 57
7/28/11 at 3:56pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post

Apple has valid points about iPads size but it is very apparent it is to big for some uses. It is rather surprising the number of Kindle type readers I see around. These are a perfect example of a device that leverages the smaller screen.

I suppose if all you want to do is read a book...


Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post

In the context of this discussion I have to wonder if these readers are included in analysts numbers.

Do you REALLY have to wonder? They call tablets "media tablets", and Kindles, Nooks, et al, "e-readers". No, they do not count as "tablets". Besides, the topic was Android devices.

Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post

Now one could say Amazons tablet isn't a real tablet, that is it is too fixed function to compete with an iPad.

I would say that. I know people that own BOTH devices. They really are not direct competitors.

Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post

But obviously I don't think analysts see it this way.

That is not obvious to me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post

Beyond that it really looks like Amazon is the only manufacture capable of competing with Apple.

Well, when Amazon actually delivers a full-fledged tablet, we shall find out.

Thompson
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post #54 of 57
7/28/11 at 3:59pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by thompr View Post

"media tablets", and Kindles, Nooks, et al, e-readers. No, they do not count. Besides, the topic was Android devices.

The Nook Color is an android device, so it's a reasonable question for it. It runs froyo, it plays video & music, and has an app market. But it's being categorized as an e-reader for reasons that aren't entirely clear.
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post #55 of 57
7/28/11 at 4:17pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

The Nook Color is an android device, so it's a reasonable question for it. It runs froyo, it plays video & music, and has an app market. But it's being categorized as an e-reader for reasons that aren't entirely clear.

. . . as well as a browser (wi-fi) for email, visits to sites like this and the like.

Actually fills all of a buyer's "tablet" needs for some segment of the market IMHO. My wife is certainly part of that segment. But she won't allow me to update it to Honeycomb for her. No guts no glory I say!

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post #56 of 57
7/28/11 at 8:14pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

. . . as well as a browser (wi-fi) for email, visits to sites like this and the like.

Actually fills all of a buyer's "tablet" needs for some segment of the market IMHO. My wife is certainly part of that segment. But she won't allow me to update it to Honeycomb for her. No guts no glory I say!

I don't get where these honeycomb builds for froyo tabs are coming from - I thought Google hadn't released the source to it yet and didn't intend to?
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post #57 of 57
7/29/11 at 7:15am
HTC on their conference call today:

'We do not disclose tablet numbers separately ... we do not expect them to have a material effect on our results'

OK, so the HTC flyer is doing really really badly.
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