or Connect
AppleInsider › Forums › Mobile › iPhone › 74% of Verizon iPhone buyers are waiting for Apple's next model
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

74% of Verizon iPhone buyers are waiting for Apple's next model

post #1 of 50
Thread Starter 
A significant number of Verizon customers are waiting for Apple's fifth-generation iPhone, rather than buying the currently available iPhone 4, a new survey has found.

Analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray polled a small sample of 216 mobile phone users about their phones and carriers. He found that the results showed encouraging news for Apple and the iPhone.

In particular, his sampling found that many Verizon customers are waiting for the iPhone 5, as the iPhone 4 only went on sale to Verizon customers in February, a full 8 months after the handset was first sold to AT&T customers.

Of Verizon subscribers who do not have an iPhone but plan to buy an iPhone next, 74 percent are specifically waiting for Apple's anticipated "iPhone 5." For comparison, just 53 percent of AT&T customers who plan to buy an iPhone said they are waiting for the fifth-generation model.

"This pent up demand for the next iPhone at Verizon may drive numbers higher than the 3.8 (million) units we are modeling Apple to sell through Verizon in the Sept. quarter," Munster wrote. "And our overall iPhone unit estimate of 22.0m in the Sept. quarter may prove to be conservative."

In the last quarter, AT&T activated 1.3 million more iPhones than rival Verizon. AT&T remains the only U.S. carrier where customers can buy the entry-level iPhone 3GS, which is sold for $49 with a new two-year service contract.

The numbers also show a near-perfect retention rate among iPhone customers, with 94 percent of current iPhone customers indicating they expect to buy another Apple handset. Among Android users, only 47 percent expect to buy another Android device, while nearly as many -- 42 percent -- said they will switch to an iPhone.



In addition, the survey also found that among Verizon subscribers that do not already have an iPhone, 55 percent expect their next handset to be made by Apple. Based on this, Munster believes that iPhone share of the smartphone market is poised to grow dramatically.

"Of those surveyed, 29% already have iPhones and 64% expect their next phone to be an iPhone, 17% have an Android device and 17% also indicated their next phone to be an Android," he wrote.

Piper Jaffray's survey of 216 mobile phone users came from respondents found during workdays in downtown Minneapolis. The poll was conducted over the course of a week in a variety of public places, including on the street, in food courts, and near the entrance of a baseball stadium on game day.
post #2 of 50
This makes sense. Everyone thought that there would be a new model in June so many delayed their purchase, when that did not happen most decide to wait for the new phone since they had already waited this long....

Since the rumors seem to be point to the fact that the new iPhone will not be 4G, I will probably wait and get a new Android phone. ( I live in a good 4G city with Verizon ). I would like to get an iPhone, but it is still missing a few key features that I use regularly. I love the Chome to phone app on android, I love to highlight text or a link in a browser and send it to my phone so I can paste it into an application like Notes. It is very handy for phone numbers, addresses, etc.... I also like to being able to download driver & firmware files to my phone and transfer them to a customer's computer via USB. In my opinion not being able to download non-standard files and mount the phone as a USB drive is the biggest limitation of the iPhone in my work. Also the voice navigation and voice commands in Android are hard to beat...
post #3 of 50
I just did a small survey myself to see how the results match up. I find that 50% of those surveyed don't expect to get a smartphone at all, while another 50% plan to get a Galaxy II when it becomes available. None of those surveyed planned to get an iPhone.

The survey was done in different areas of Central Florida, with one of the two respondents working in the office and the other a customer in the company's parking lot.
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
post #4 of 50
I plan on buying the new model and selling it right away to the crazies who are slow and miss the first round of sales Then, once it is jailbroken, I will buy again...
post #5 of 50
From the pie charts it looks like the iPhone is eating up Blackberry buyers not Anroid buyers. 17% had an Android in the survey and 17% said they were getting another Android, so they're pretty much going to stay loyal with Android.
post #6 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by sranger View Post

This makes sense. Everyone thought that there would be a new model in June so many delayed their purchase, when that did not happen most decide to wait for the new phone since they had already waited this long....

Since the rumors seem to be point to the fact that the new iPhone will not be 4G, I will probably wait and get a new Android phone. ( I live in a good 4G city with Verizon ). I would like to get an iPhone, but it is still missing a few key features that I use regularly. I love the Chome to phone app on android, I love to highlight text or a link in a browser and send it to my phone so I can paste it into an application like Notes. It is very handy for phone numbers, addresses, etc.... I also like to being able to download driver & firmware files to my phone and transfer them to a customer's computer via USB. In my opinion not being able to download non-standard files and mount the phone as a USB drive is the biggest limitation of the iPhone in my work. Also the voice navigation and voice commands in Android are hard to beat...

Everyone has such a hard on for 4g. Every 4g user I know says the battery life is just awful right now. Coupled with the extra charges for 4g, just don't get why people care at this point. Give me solid and universal 3g speed (which we don't have especially on AT&T) over an immature 4g any day.

In any case, you sound like an Android user or should be one.
post #7 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

I just did a small survey myself to see how the results match up. I find that 50% of those surveyed don't expect to get a smartphone at all, while another 50% plan to get a Galaxy II when it becomes available. None of those surveyed planned to get an iPhone.

The survey was done in different areas of Central Florida, with one of the two respondents working in the office and the other a customer in the company's parking lot.


Sample size: n=2
Sampling technique: Convenience
Completion rate: 100%
Data reduction and analysis: Priceless
post #8 of 50
I'm interested in the iPhone loyalty aspect. This one of the major reasons I don't think that Android is completely unstoppable. I can understand that many first-time buyers of Android might not know any better, but will they be happy using Android smartphones and become repeat customers. If they're not happy, they might try purchasing an iPhone for their next iPhone. Of course, they could just buy their next Android smartphone from another company. I'm not going to prognosticate about what happens in the future. All Apple can do is give itself the best chance of holding on to customers by building high-quality products. Time will take care of the rest.
post #9 of 50
Why can't these people poll millions? A couple hundred isn't anything.
post #10 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

74% of Verizon iPhone buyers are waiting for Apple's next model

A significant number of Verizon customers ...

I'm not American, but to me that title reads that 74% of current iPhone buyers (read owners) are awaiting the new model. But the article states that it is a "significant number of Verizon customers"

When looking at the title I was pretty amazed that 74% of Verizon iPhone owners would renew their phone that quickly, but apparently I misread it. Anyone else as well?
I’d rather have a better product than a better price.
Reply
I’d rather have a better product than a better price.
Reply
post #11 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by ghostface147 View Post

Why can't these people poll millions? A couple hundred isn't anything.

$$$$$
post #12 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackbook View Post

From the pie charts it looks like the iPhone is eating up Blackberry buyers not Anroid buyers. 17% had an Android in the survey and 17% said they were getting another Android, so they're pretty much going to stay loyal with Android.

Somebody's gotta hate Apple, and what else are they going to buy? The Palm Treo?

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
Reply

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
Reply
post #13 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhilBoogie View Post

I'm not American, but to me that title reads that 74% of current iPhone buyers (read owners) are awaiting the new model. But the article states that it is a "significant number of Verizon customers"

When looking at the title I was pretty amazed that 74% of Verizon iPhone owners would renew their phone that quickly, but apparently I misread it. Anyone else as well?


One problem that arises in these 'studies' is the use of the term significance. Tests of statistical significance and effect size almost always involve the selection of a p value (e.g, p=0.5). Without this level of data analysis, the use of the term 'significant results' often misleads the public into beliving the study results are important.

The question often asked in data analysis is "How important are these results"? In this case, not so much.
post #14 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by ghostface147 View Post

Why can't these people poll millions? A couple hundred isn't anything.

Million's would be ridiculous, a few thousand if demographically representative would be great though. Not only is the sample size here small, it's clearly not representative of the current US handset market, maybe it's representative of Manhattan.

Does it tell us anything? The 94% intention of iPhone users to remain on the platform seems relevant.
post #15 of 50
Deleted
post #16 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by ghostface147 View Post

Why can't these people poll millions? A couple hundred isn't anything.

200 can be a sufficient sample size. What is more important is finding a sample that is representative of the population. That determines teh quality of a poll, and not the 200 number (of course, the more the better, but my point is that you don't need millions...a couple of hundred, can be enough).
post #17 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

I just did a small survey myself to see how the results match up. I find that 50% of those surveyed don't expect to get a smartphone at all, while another 50% plan to get a Galaxy II when it becomes available. None of those surveyed planned to get an iPhone.

The survey was done in different areas of Central Florida, with one of the two respondents working in the office and the other a customer in the company's parking lot.

Don't scoff.

A sample size of 216 produces a sampling error of plus-or-minus 6.7% (at a 95% confidence level). Thus, for the question he's asking, that's a pretty good sample size, and provides a basis for a reasonably sensible inference (i.e., two-thirds to four-fifths, with 95% confidence, are waiting for the next model).
post #18 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by ghostface147 View Post

Why can't these people poll millions? A couple hundred isn't anything.

You have a valid point. Larger sample sizes generally lead to increased precision when estimating unknown parameters. This is a function of measures of central tendencey, specifically standard deviation (SD). However, data collection, reduction, and analysis times increase with the number of study participants. Cost then becomes a factor.

When reporting the results of studies such as this, it's best to stick to descriptive statistics in the reporting. Attempting to generalize the results to a larger population (inferential statistics) would be inappropriate (threats to external validity). This is especially true with small and/or non-representative samples, sampling techinques, and the associated Type VI error.
post #19 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by addicted44 View Post

200 can be a sufficient sample size. What is more important is finding a sample that is representative of the population. That determines teh quality of a poll, and not the 200 number (of course, the more the better, but my point is that you don't need millions...a couple of hundred, can be enough).

Believe it or not, you only need a sample size greater than 30 for it to be an accurate representation of the population. Of course, that's assuming that you chose your sample randomly (meaning the surveyor didn't find out what kind of phone people had before he decided if he would include them in the survey).
post #20 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post

Believe it or not, you only need a sample size greater than 30 for it to be an accurate representation of the population. Of course, that's assuming that you chose your sample randomly (meaning the surveyor didn't find out what kind of phone people had before he decided if he would include them in the survey).

Well in this case we know that the sample isn't representative, given all the other larger surveys showing dumbphones are still at 40%+ of the total subscriber population.
post #21 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Don't scoff.

A sample size of 216 produces a sampling error of plus-or-minus 6.7% (at a 95% confidence level). Thus, for the question he's asking, that's a pretty good sample size, and provides a basis for a reasonably sensible inference (i.e., two-thirds to four-fifths, with 95% confidence, are waiting for the next model).

Since we don't even know what the question was I don't see how any inference can be made as to the accuracy of the results. Did he/they see an Android phone and ask if the user was getting another? Did they only ask those they saw using smartphones? What was the exact question(s) asked? Are you gonna buy that POS again" might get a different response from "Do you regret your iPhone or Android purchase."

After all, Piper-Jaffray does have a vested interest in having Apple stock get as many positives as possible, thus the question itself could well have been a leading one to begin with. Reminds me of the old courtroom joke. "Do you still beat your wife? A simple yes or no will do."

I'm pretty certain I could survey another 216 people and come up with whatever results I'd like to see.
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
post #22 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

Well in this case we know that the sample isn't representative, given all the other larger surveys showing dumbphones are still at 40%+ of the total subscriber population.

That doesn't have any bearing on this survey. Dumbphone users could have intentions of purchasing an iPhone too.
post #23 of 50
Since we're on the subject of surveys, Canalys released their latest results on the smartphone market today.

"Canalys today published its final worldwide country-level Q2 2011 smart phone market estimates, showing substantial market growth in all regions. . . Of the 56 countries Canalys tracks around the world, Android led in 35 of them and achieved a global market share of 48%. Asia Pacific (APAC) remained the largest regional market, with 39.8 million units shipping there, compared with 35.0 million in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA), and 32.9 million in the Americas.

Android, the number one platform by shipments since Q4 2010, was also the strongest growth driver this quarter, with Android-based smart phone shipments up 379% over a year ago to 51.9 million units. . .

The final country-level data delivered to clients today shows there were particularly strong performances from Android devices in APAC countries, such as South Korea, where Android holds an 85% platform share, and Taiwan, where it has 71%. . .

With shipments of 20.3 million iPhones and a market share of 19%, iOS overtook Nokias Symbian platform during the quarter to take second place worldwide. In doing so, Apple also became the worlds leading individual smart phone vendor, stripping Nokia of its long-held leadership position. . .

Microsoft is also eager to see Nokias first Windows Phone products, along with those from its other OEM partners, ship with its Mango update. . . Fewer than 1.5 million Microsoft-based smart phones shipped during the quarter, equating to a mere 1% share of the global market, down 52% against shipments a year ago.

Windows Phone OEM partner HTC saw Android driving the vast majority of its portfolio, but Canalys expects it to continue to be a leading provider of Windows Phone products. HTC achieved particular success in North America this quarter, climbing to a 21% share and consolidating its second place position, while Apples North American share dropped from 31% last quarter to 25% this quarter.

RIM had a challenging quarter in North America, with its market share slipping to 12%, down from 33% a year ago, leading to negative press coverage in the United States. But RIMs global shipments grew 11% year on year, keeping it the number one vendor in Latin America with a 28% share. "
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
post #24 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post

That doesn't have any bearing on this survey. Dumbphone users could have intentions of purchasing an iPhone too.

I'm not talking about the second chart (intent), I'm talking about the first - current handset. It's completely relevant, it shows us just how unrepresentative of the US smartphone consumer population the sample was. Android was lower than RIM in the sample which hasn't been true for a long old while.

Comscore and Nielsen independently produce numbers showing very similar levels of Android and iPhone adoption, and those numbers look nothing whatsoever like these.
post #25 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

I'm not talking about the second chart (intent), I'm talking about the first - current handset. It's completely relevant, it shows us just how unrepresentative of the US smartphone consumer population the sample was. Android was lower than RIM in the sample which hasn't been true for a long old while.

Comscore and Nielsen independently produce numbers showing very similar levels of Android and iPhone adoption, and those numbers look nothing whatsoever like these.


Homer Simpson: "Oh, people can come up with statistics to prove anything. 14% of people know that."
post #26 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Since we're on the subject of surveys, Canalys released their latest results on the smartphone market today.

Interesting numbers, WP7 seems still stuck pining for the fjords. One really interesting bit you didn't include. Seems that a huge portion of Android's gain came from Nokia, but not as much as it could - because Samsung also saw huge Bada growth.

‘Samsung has failed to fully capitalize on Nokia’s weakened state around the world, as the Finnish company rides out a challenging transitional period,’ said Jones. ‘It’s the best placed vendor to grow at Nokia’s expense, taking advantage of its global scale and channel reach, but it hasn’t yet done enough to capitalize on this, particularly in emerging markets.’
Samsung was the largest Android device vendor and the number two vendor overall in the market with shipments of its own-branded devices at 17.0 million units. Its year-on-year growth of 421% was helped by significant growth of 355% in its bada smart phone shipments. Samsung also acts as an ODM for the Google Nexus S and T-Mobile Sidekick 4G, collectively estimated to have shipped 0.7 million units.'


Source Canalys
post #27 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

I'm not talking about the second chart (intent), I'm talking about the first - current handset. It's completely relevant, it shows us just how unrepresentative of the US smartphone consumer population the sample was. Android was lower than RIM in the sample which hasn't been true for a long old while.

Comscore and Nielsen independently produce numbers showing very similar levels of Android and iPhone adoption, and those numbers look nothing whatsoever like these.

You've got a point about the charts. I looked at the intentions part and assumed the current ownership part was accurate. Indeed, this survey appears to be very skewed. I wonder how a survey with such an obvious bias would ever make it to the public. Are they unconcerned with credibility?
post #28 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by 80025 View Post

You have a valid point. Larger sample sizes generally lead to increased precision when estimating unknown parameters. This is a function of measures of central tendencey, specifically standard deviation (SD). However, data collection, reduction, and analysis times increase with the number of study participants. Cost then becomes a factor.

When reporting the results of studies such as this, it's best to stick to descriptive statistics in the reporting. Attempting to generalize the results to a larger population (inferential statistics) would be inappropriate (threats to external validity). This is especially true with small and/or non-representative samples, sampling techinques, and the associated Type VI error.

What's a 'Type VI' error?
post #29 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

I'm pretty certain I could survey another 216 people and come up with whatever results I'd like to see.

If you're 'pretty certain,' you should do it and report back.
post #30 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

What's a 'Type VI' error?


Thanks for catching that. Should have been a Type IV error. Sometimes I get my mix all talked up...

Type IV - Inconsistency between the statistical prodedure and research question. Ocurrs when the statistical model used has been unrelated or tangentally related to the question(s) of interest.

As an unsolicited FYI:

Type I - The likelyhood of rejecting the null hypothesis (i.e., there is no relationship or significant difference).

Type II - Related to the power of a test, the probability of detecting a difference when one exists.

Type III - Occurs when you get the right answer to the wrong question, sometimes called a Type 0 error. Also occurs when you correctly conclude that the two groups are statistically different, but you are wrong about the direction of the difference.
post #31 of 50
I think Apple may have under estimated how delaying the release of a next generation phone could hurt sales. Is anyone enthusiastic about buying a phone that is now well more than a year old? Probably not. And sometimes you need to replace your phone -- maybe its because the old phone breaks, or damaged, or is just too old to continue functioning -- and if a model is 15 months old, its probably not at the top of the list for many buyers.

It does make sense to move the iphone to a September cycle, making it available just before the Christmas rush. However, given that every previous iteration of the phone became available in the early summer period, moving the update cycle by 3 (or still possible more) months has left a number of buyers stuck with older phones. If Apple had been anticipating moving their release date, they probably should have considered either a minor update or a price adjustment midway through the year to more accurately reflect the age of the existing iphone 4. Releasing a long delayed white model is not an "update," either.
post #32 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post

You've got a point about the charts. I looked at the intentions part and assumed the current ownership part was accurate. Indeed, this survey appears to be very skewed. I wonder how a survey with such an obvious bias would ever make it to the public. Are they unconcerned with credibility?

Well they did explain where and how the sample was acquired, in Minneapolis, so it's a relatively affluent urban demographic.

Just because the sample isn't representative of the full market doesn't mean it offers no insight, it just means we need to be careful how we view it.
post #33 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by ianmac47 View Post

I think Apple may have under estimated how delaying the release of a next generation phone could hurt sales. Is anyone enthusiastic about buying a phone that is now well more than a year old? Probably not. And sometimes you need to replace your phone -- maybe its because the old phone breaks, or damaged, or is just too old to continue functioning -- and if a model is 15 months old, its probably not at the top of the list for many buyers.

The problem is that the data is against you. Not only did Apple have their highest ever sales figures for iPhone last quarter, the YoY increase was up too, above levels seen in the previous recent quarters. The iPhone-4 may be old but it still holds up incredibly well compared to upper end Android phones.

The iPhone market seems to be permanently constrained by supply, as fast as markets such as the US move into a supply/demand balance Apple is adding new carriers and new markets.

I'm not saying that this will always be true, or that Apple can switch to 18month product cycles, or anything crazy like that - but the fact is that Apple hasn't paid any kind of price so far for the extended iP-4 lifespan.
post #34 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

If you're 'pretty certain,' you should do it and report back.

I'm pretty certain you're intelligent enough to understand how to slant a survey to get the results you want. I don't need to prove that one too do I?

Some articles on surveys, and the ways they can be manipulated, sometimes inadvertantly.

http://stattrek.com/ap-statistics-2/...ling-bias.aspx

http://fitbiztools.com/2011/06/how-y...urvey-results/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_poll

Not stated is that if you don't get the results you want, just don't report the results. Reword it or change the population and try again.
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
post #35 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

I'm pretty certain you're intelligent enough to understand how to slant a survey to get the results you want. I don't need to prove that one too do I?

Some articles on surveys, and the ways they can be manipulated, sometimes inadvertantly.

http://stattrek.com/ap-statistics-2/...ling-bias.aspx

http://fitbiztools.com/2011/06/how-y...urvey-results/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_poll

Not stated is that if you don't get the results you want, just don't report the results. Reword it or change the population and try again.

Thanks for the informative links. Oftentimes a study yields inconclusive results or unexpected findings. As stated above, it's generally best to abandon the study as attempts to 'fix' things typically result in principle investigator bias. However, the study can serve as a basis for further research.
post #36 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhilBoogie View Post

I'm not American, but to me that title reads that 74% of current iPhone buyers (read owners) are awaiting the new model. But the article states that it is a "significant number of Verizon customers"

When looking at the title I was pretty amazed that 74% of Verizon iPhone owners would renew their phone that quickly, but apparently I misread it. Anyone else as well?

That's definitely how it's phrased, American English or other. Badly phrased.
post #37 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhilBoogie View Post

I'm not American, but to me that title reads that 74% of current iPhone buyers (read owners) are awaiting the new model. But the article states that it is a "significant number of Verizon customers"

When looking at the title I was pretty amazed that 74% of Verizon iPhone owners would renew their phone that quickly, but apparently I misread it. Anyone else as well?

You totally read it wrong...or misinterpreted it. "74% of current iPhone buyers" does NOT mean they are current owners. It means that 74% of potential iPhone buyers are waiting for the next iPhone...
post #38 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

I'm pretty certain you're intelligent enough to understand how to slant a survey to get the results you want. I don't need to prove that one too do I?

And, you're smart enough to know that consistent cynicism sucks.
post #39 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

And, you're smart enough to know that consistent cynicism sucks.

Absolutely agree
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
post #40 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by 80025 View Post

Thanks for catching that. Should have been a Type IV error. Sometimes I get my mix all talked up...

Type IV - Inconsistency between the statistical prodedure and research question. Ocurrs when the statistical model used has been unrelated or tangentally related to the question(s) of interest.

As an unsolicited FYI:

Type I - The likelyhood of rejecting the null hypothesis (i.e., there is no relationship or significant difference).

Type II - Related to the power of a test, the probability of detecting a difference when one exists.

Type III - Occurs when you get the right answer to the wrong question, sometimes called a Type 0 error. Also occurs when you correctly conclude that the two groups are statistically different, but you are wrong about the direction of the difference.

To put the notion of Type 1 and Type 2 errors in remotely the same league as some silly, cute-sy, colloquial, Wikipedia-based, social science researcher catch-phrases ("Type 3" and "Type 4") betrays utter ignorance of the basics of the scientific method of enquiry.

Enough said.
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: iPhone
AppleInsider › Forums › Mobile › iPhone › 74% of Verizon iPhone buyers are waiting for Apple's next model