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Needham sees Apple stock hitting $540 on sales of 54M iPads in 2012

post #1 of 42
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Investment firm Needham & Company on Friday upped its price target for Apple stock to $540, with projected sales of 54 million iPads and 108 million iPhones in 2012.

Analyst Charlie Wolf provides semi-annual updates on his AAPL 12-month price target. Friday, he increased that projection from $450, originally set in February, to $540, but for different reasons than price target raises in the past.

In Wolf's latest projection, the iPhone only contributed modestly to his increased price target. Instead, he has increased his models for Mac and iTunes revenue.

Wolf breaks down Apple's projected value per share with a dollar amount assigned to each of the company's major product categories. In the latest numbers, iTunes saw the largest percentage increase in value, up 82.3 percent, to represent what he called "explosive growth in iOS applications sales."

In addition, he expects the iPad to capture a larger share of the tablet market going forward than was previously anticipated. In Wolf's model, the iPad accounts for 12.2 percent, or $65.62, of the $540 price target.

This year, Wolf sees total iPad shipments of 35.6 million units, up 137.4 percent year over year. In 2012, he anticipates Apple's tablet will grow another 52.5 percent, to 54.3 million units shipped.

"The increase in our price target is not an exercise in 'keeping up with the Jones,'" he wrote. "There's no rule that says our price target always has to rise. Indeed, it could fall if Apple's semi-annual performance trailed our forecast.

"Of course, in Apple's case it has not done so since the emergence of the iPod, which was followed by the iPhone, iPad and the Apple Stores."



The iPhone still represents the lion's share of Apple's stock value, in Wolf's eyes, though he has reduced its percentage share to less than half. Previously, the iPhone accounted for 53.4 percent of the stock's projected value; now it's estimated at 49.2 percent, or $265.86 of the $540 price target.

Total iPhone shipments are projected to hit 77.3 million units in 2011, with Apple capturing 19 percent of the smartphone market. In 2012, Wolf sees Apple's share growing to 20 percent, with sales of 108.1 million iPhones.

"Since the iPhone represents almost half of Apple's value, even a modest shortfall in the iPhone's growth would have an outsized impact on the company's fair value," the analyst cautioned. "We are more comfortable with our iPad valuation. However, the tablet market is still so young that the trajectory of iPad sales could turn on a dime."

In June, Needham predicted that Apple would ship 30 million iPads, along with 17 million Macs, in 2011. He also predicted that the iPhone will continue to win back market share from Google's Android platform in the U.S. smartphone market.
post #2 of 42
540? I'll take that.
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Long on AAPL so biased
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From Apple ][ - to new Mac Pro I've used them all.
Long on AAPL so biased
Google Motto "You're not the customer. You're the product."
Reply
post #3 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

540? I'll take that.

Than buy some puts. And sell some calls.

But keep in mind that these analysts are always wrong, and they are just manipulating the stock price for their own selfish gains.
post #4 of 42
Those iPad numbers are still very conservative. Next quarter numbers will be up again, around 15mil units. 2012 will be over 60mil, probably around 80mil.
post #5 of 42
With the U.S. economy weak and falling, with the U.S. dollar crumbling, and with the halt of most economic growth worldwide, I think it is pretty much IMPOSSIBLE that Apple stock will EVER be trading at $540 a share. I would say the chances of that happening are ZERO. Some reality from these analysts would be much appreciated. Two books that I've recently read, "Aftershock" and "The End of Growth", accurately lay out how the financial party days are over for ALL investors.
post #6 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by scotty321 View Post

Two books that I've recently read, "Aftershock" and "The End of Growth", accurately lay out how the financial party days are over for ALL investors.

Over the decades books like that have sold consistently well, despite being consistently wrong.

How can you conclude that these two are accurate WRT the future?
post #7 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by scotty321 View Post

With the U.S. economy weak and falling, with the U.S. dollar crumbling, and with the halt of most economic growth worldwide, I think it is pretty much IMPOSSIBLE that Apple stock will EVER be trading at $540 a share. I would say the chances of that happening are ZERO. Some reality from these analysts would be much appreciated. Two books that I've recently read, "Aftershock" and "The End of Growth", accurately lay out how the financial party days are over for ALL investors.

Well... at least the jobs report this morning was better than expected...

In January Apple will announce its 1st quarter results... at that point AAPL will firmly establish itself above $400.

$540? That does sound like a pipe dream in this economy.
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post #8 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by scotty321 View Post

With the U.S. economy weak and falling, with the U.S. dollar crumbling, and with the halt of most economic growth worldwide, I think it is pretty much IMPOSSIBLE that Apple stock will EVER be trading at $540 a share. I would say the chances of that happening are ZERO. Some reality from these analysts would be much appreciated. Two books that I've recently read, "Aftershock" and "The End of Growth", accurately lay out how the financial party days are over for ALL investors.

Now you're being silly. In fact the weaker the dollar gets the higher Apple stock will go, since most of their income is non dollar, weaker dollar means more profits.
post #9 of 42
If economy permit, $500 next year is conservative forecast.
post #10 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by scotty321 View Post

With the U.S. economy weak and falling, with the U.S. dollar crumbling, and with the halt of most economic growth worldwide, I think it is pretty much IMPOSSIBLE that Apple stock will EVER be trading at $540 a share.

I agree that it won't hit $540, maybe not even $500 but I disagree with the reason being the economy.

I think that Apple could look to splitting the stock every soon. They don't do it often but they do it. And if the price goes back up to $400 and stays over it for a few weeks this could be another time.

A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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post #11 of 42
I love it when people use words like "impossible" and "never" to describe what something "can't " do. If an analyst had said back in 1997/1998 that Apple would someday be the 2nd largest company in the world based on their stock price they would have IMMEDIATELY carted them off to the looney bin.

Is it possible the Apple stock could hit $540? Sure. Is it possible that Apple has hit their peak and will see a steady decline back down to earth? Yup. The latter part is much more certain than the former as what goes up eventually does come down. After all - look at Microsoft. For a period of time there in the 90's and early 2000's they appeared to be an unstoppable force. Well, one seriously crappy OS (Vista) and some other really bonehead market moves (or non-moves) and they have settled down into a steady company without much movement, or creativity in the market.

Part of the issue with Apple right now is they have cornered so much of the market that their continued rise is all but certain. Watch the other reports of competing vendors struggling to get parts and raw materials necessary to make a product that might be a contender against Apple's product line. The reports continue to come in that the competitors are just not able to get what they need because Apple has locked them up already. That's what a very large market cap can do for you.

The ONLY way that Apple is going to get beat now is if they either stumble with a poor primary product release (OSX, Mac line, iPod/iPad/iPhone), or someone out-innovates them. Again - I don't see that happening in the foreseeable future. Can it happen? Yup. Never? Nope.
post #12 of 42
I've been buying AAPL since the early 1990's, having now accumulated 5700 shares. The equity has split 2 for 1 twice in that time, making my average price per share $12.40. Right now (9:20 MDT), the stock is sitting at $375, give or take a few pennies--and has been as high as the low 400's.

Now, and with that said, oh wise Scotty321 . . . what would you have said AAPL's chances of rising from 12 to 400 would have been in the past two decades? Zero? Less than zero? Apple, Inc. will be the largest cap company in the world before the end of the year (if not the end of the month), a fact I doubt you will acknowledge now or even have predicted THEN.

As my daddy used to say to my brother and me, "If you're so smart, how come you ain't rich?" ARE YOU, Scotty? (If so, I'd love to invite you onto my yacht sometime for cocktails. You can predict the future some more for us, one and all!)
post #13 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

I agree that it won't hit $540, maybe not even $500 but I disagree with the reason being the economy.

I think that Apple could look to splitting the stock every soon. They don't do it often but they do it. And if the price goes back up to $400 and stays over it for a few weeks this could be another time.

Why would Apple need to split their stock? Stocks get split so they can continue to raise capital to invest with. How much did Apple have in the bank last? $75 Billion? A split would be incredibly unlikely.
post #14 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by VinitaBoy View Post

I've been buying AAPL since the early 1990's, having now accumulated 5700 shares. The equity has split 2 for 1 twice in that time, making my average price per share $12.40. Right now (9:20 MDT), the stock is sitting at $375, give or take a few pennies--and has been as high as the low 400's.

Now, and with that said, oh wise Scotty321 . . . what would you have said AAPL's chances of rising from 12 to 400 would have been in the past two decades? Zero? Less than zero? Apple, Inc. will be the largest cap company in the world before the end of the year (if not the end of the month), a fact I doubt you will acknowledge now or even have predicted THEN.

As my daddy used to say to my brother and me, "If you're so smart, how come you ain't rich?" ARE YOU, Scotty? (If so, I'd love to invite you onto my yacht sometime for cocktails. You can predict the future some more for us, one and all!)

Although I agree with the 2nd paragraph I have to say that the old saw in the 3rd paragraph, "If you're so smart, how come you ain't rich?", is such a crock of shit that it really grinds me. Wealth and intelligence don't necessarily go hand in hand... just as wealth and hard work are also not necessarily a match. Wealth and luck are a much better match (although some people have become wealthy by using intelligence and hard work).

jmho
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post #15 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Although I agree with the 2nd paragraph I have to say that the old saw in the 3rd paragraph, "If you're so smart, how come you ain't rich?", is such a crock of shit that it really grinds me. Wealth and intelligence don't necessarily go hand in hand... just as wealth and hard work are also not necessarily a match. Wealth and luck are a much better match (although some people have become wealthy by using intelligence and hard work).

jmho

Ah yes. Apple isn't smart, just lucky. That makes perfect sense.
post #16 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by sessamoid View Post

Ah yes. Apple isn't smart, just lucky. That makes perfect sense.

Hey, smartass, why don't you read the whole fucking comment before rolling your eyes... and we're talking about people, not companies...
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post #17 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by scotty321 View Post

With the U.S. economy weak and falling, with the U.S. dollar crumbling, and with the halt of most economic growth worldwide, I think it is pretty much IMPOSSIBLE that Apple stock will EVER be trading at $540 a share. I would say the chances of that happening are ZERO. Some reality from these analysts would be much appreciated. Two books that I've recently read, "Aftershock" and "The End of Growth", accurately lay out how the financial party days are over for ALL investors.

Not just investors. Haven't you heard about http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_ph...on!?:rolleyes:
post #18 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by ibgarrett View Post

Stocks get split so they can continue to raise capital to invest with.

Hello?
post #19 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by sessamoid View Post

Ah yes. Apple isn't smart, just lucky. That makes perfect sense.

He wasn't talking about Apple.
post #20 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Not just investors. Haven't you heard about 2012?!

Watching the Canadian market over the past few days makes me wonder if this is just a correction... almost 10% down over the past 10 days and down over 6% in the last 2 days.

The sky is falling... the sky is falling... Nostradamus warned us about this... etc. etc.
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post #21 of 42
Meanwhile.

Apple Is Within Spitting Distance Of Being Worlds Most Valuable Company


$16 Billion more to go!

http://www.cultofmac.com/apple-is-wi...company/107698

CNN: Obamacare largest tax increase in American history

 

FORBES: ObamaCare's 7 Tax Hikes On Middle class

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CNN: Obamacare largest tax increase in American history

 

FORBES: ObamaCare's 7 Tax Hikes On Middle class

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post #22 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by scotty321 View Post

With the U.S. economy weak and falling, with the U.S. dollar crumbling, and with the halt of most economic growth worldwide, I think it is pretty much IMPOSSIBLE that Apple stock will EVER be trading at $540 a share. I would say the chances of that happening are ZERO. Some reality from these analysts would be much appreciated. Two books that I've recently read, "Aftershock" and "The End of Growth", accurately lay out how the financial party days are over for ALL investors.

Now now, anything is possible. The "impossible" just takes longer.

Apple is in a ridiculously great position. They're sitting on a Mt. Everest of cash, making killer products that everyone wants, and are innovating and producing like crazy. They keep that up, then we see.

I've lost track of how many people (including certain posters here in AI) that preached AAPL would never hit $X per share, and in time, met and exceeded it. $540 seems a bit high, but I certainly think it's not unreachable. It may just take quite a bit longer.

So you're officially on record Mr. Predictor.
post #23 of 42
so who of you guys has a good track record in apple moves to give us a tip here?
post #24 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Watching the Canadian market over the past few days makes me wonder if this is just a correction... almost 10% down over the past 10 days and down over 6% in the last 2 days.

The sky is falling... the sky is falling... Nostradamus warned us about this... etc. etc.

Yes, also a hangover from the Tea Party orgy of fear-mongering over the past several weeks.

This story should be read with the earlier one on RBC, where we find:

"He [analyst Abramsky] came away from the meeting with an overall positive outlook on Apple. The executives affirmed Apple's "untapped global opportunity," especially in China, which has seen tremendous growth in recent years, the analyst said. Other emerging markets such as Latin America, the Middle East and India also provide Apple with a significant opportunity for expansion."

Apple seems to have the largest possible global strategy in an ascendant industry. The first computer revolution of 20 years ago was just a prelude. The computer in everyone's hand will create a new economy around it in unimaginable ways. At least I can't imagine it, but I know it's going to big, and quick to appear, just like the TV consumer revolution was in the 50s and 60s, and the first information mini-revolution was in the 90s.

A U.S. budget surplus looms, if we can shut up the fearful hand wringers.
post #25 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by myapplelove View Post

so who of you guys has a good track record in apple moves to give us a tip here?

One thing is for sure: anyone who claims he does is lying.
post #26 of 42
October 19, 1987...check that out but, tough to see $500 today...Is it harder to imagine AAPL at $6 bucks a share ? (Oct 26, 1987)

24" iMac, 2 MB Pros, iPad Version 1, 2 x (iPhone 4s), Apple TV 3, a Shuffle and a couple of iTouches somewhere in the house. Spot on wall reserved for an Apple TV of some description. Oh yeah..and...

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24" iMac, 2 MB Pros, iPad Version 1, 2 x (iPhone 4s), Apple TV 3, a Shuffle and a couple of iTouches somewhere in the house. Spot on wall reserved for an Apple TV of some description. Oh yeah..and...

Reply
post #27 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by VinitaBoy View Post

I've been buying AAPL since the early 1990's, having now accumulated 5700 shares. The equity has split 2 for 1 twice in that time, making my average price per share $12.40. Right now (9:20 MDT), the stock is sitting at $375, give or take a few pennies--and has been as high as the low 400's.

Now, and with that said, oh wise Scotty321 . . . what would you have said AAPL's chances of rising from 12 to 400 would have been in the past two decades? Zero? Less than zero? Apple, Inc. will be the largest cap company in the world before the end of the year (if not the end of the month), a fact I doubt you will acknowledge now or even have predicted THEN.

As my daddy used to say to my brother and me, "If you're so smart, how come you ain't rich?" ARE YOU, Scotty? (If so, I'd love to invite you onto my yacht sometime for cocktails. You can predict the future some more for us, one and all!)

My daddy used to say "if you're so rich why are you so stupid?".
post #28 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by myapplelove View Post

so who of you guys has a good track record in apple moves to give us a tip here?

My advice: don't solicit investment tips from anonymous bboards.
post #29 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by polar315 View Post

24" iMac, 2 Macbook Pros, iPad Version 1, iPhone 3GS, Shuffle and a couple of iTouches somewhere in the house that I can't find.

Download Find My iPhone as it works on iPod touch as well (provided they are charged, within range of WiFi and all that)
I’d rather have a better product than a better price.
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post #30 of 42
he also reports that apple will earn a little over $1.10 per share on fudge factor.
must have forgotten the y in Apple's top secret Fudge Factory.

(how do you attribute earning per share to fudge factor in forward looking guesstimates?)
post #31 of 42
Interesting piece of iPhone data that I stumbled across today that sheds some light on the piper jaffrey survey that we saw a few days ago.

http://www.businessinsider.com/iphon...parison-2011-8

Turns out that the choice of Minneapolis was indeed the reason that iOS was over-represented in their sample, it's quite interesting how this is an east/west thing in the US. Presumably this is due to whether AT&T or Verizon offer the best service in the state?
post #32 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by myapplelove View Post

so who of you guys has a good track record in apple moves to give us a tip here?

Trust me - I've consistently sold large portions of my holding just before a dip, only to buy back the same shares and many more shortly thereafter. I can time the market. I use a combination of sophisticated technical analysis techniques that are rock solid.

I can tell you with complete certainty that Apple's shares will skyrocket, starting on September 17 at about noon. My advice is to get your hands on as much cash as you can and sink it all into Apple on September 16. Mortgage your house if you have to. Sell your car. Use your kid's college fund. Borrow as much from each of your friends as you possibly can.

You won't regret it!
post #33 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleLover2 View Post

Trust me - I've consistently sold large portions of my holding just before a dip, only to buy back the same shares and many more shortly thereafter. I can time the market. I use a combination of sophisticated technical analysis techniques that are rock solid.

I can tell you with complete certainty that Apple's shares will skyrocket, starting on September 17 at about noon. My advice is to get your hands on as much cash as you can and sink it all into Apple on September 16. Mortgage your house if you have to. Sell your car. Use your kid's college fund. Borrow as much from each of your friends as you possibly can.

You won't regret it!


Your "large portion" could be 75 out of 100 shares for all we know. Some of us have thousands of shares, with me personally picking up 4000 at a split adjusted $4.25 a share back in 1998. Do you understand the capital gains I'd have to pay to play around like that?

Sorry, but no one can time the market that consistently.
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post #34 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dickprinter View Post

Your "large portion" could be 75 out of 100 shares for all we know. Some of us have thousands of shares, with me personally picking up 4000 at a split adjusted $4.25 a share back in 1998. Do you understand the capital gains I'd have to pay to play around like that?

Sorry, but no one can time the market that consistently.


I didn't really think that I needed it, but I added a at the end just to be sure nobody would take me seriously.

Wrong again, it would seem...


Ulp! I hope that nobody actually TAKES that advice. I made it as absurd as I could, in the vein of "ask a silly question, get a silly answer".
post #35 of 42
His iPad and iPhone unit forecasts are ridiculously low. He is predicting that sales in the second half of 2011 will be lower than in the first half. That would be the first time ever for iProducts. I'm afraid there won't be lines for the iPhone 5. And no Christmas this year, sorry. He's also predicting the worst year-over-year growth ever for iOS products in 2012. And then he even cautions readers this may be too optimistic. Common, this is an AAPL bull? Apple will beat his forecasts within the first 9 months of 2012.
post #36 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by reverie View Post

His iPad and iPhone unit forecasts are ridiculously low. He is predicting that sales in the second half of 2011 will be lower than in the first half. That would be the first time ever for iProducts. I'm afraid there won't be lines for the iPhone 5. And no Christmas this year, sorry. He's also predicting the worst year-over-year growth ever for iOS products in 2012. And then he even cautions readers this may be too optimistic. Common, this is an AAPL bull? Apple will beat his forecasts within the first 9 months of 2012.

It's possible we will see a small dip in sales on iPhone in Apple's Q4, that has happened in the past in quarters where new iPhone models were launched. But the biggest sequential gains were found in the quarters immediately following new models, so Apple's 1Q2012 (calendar 4Q2011), should be impressive. I'm expecting at least 25million units, but it could easily be 30million.

As for iPad sales, yeh - he's completely missed the guidance from the last conference call, we have every reason to expect Q4 to be at least 15million units shipped. I personally expect iPads to be outselling iPhones by the end of 2012.
post #37 of 42
Imagine this turns true - AAPL shares hit $500, or $600. But what does it mean if the US$ starts tanking even more than it has been the last few years?
post #38 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

Imagine this turns true - AAPL shares hit $500, or $600. But what does it mean if the US$ starts tanking even more than it has been the last few years?

First off I don't think that the dollar is going to tank, though I do think that Asian currencies will rise - they've been undervalued for decades due to dollar pegs or soft pegs.

Then if the dollar does tank, then Apple's share price will explode, because the result won't be cheaper iPhones in Europe, but more expensive ones in the US, and the dollar profits will inevitably rise once the hedges wind down.

Really though it depends on how big a tanking you are postulating, and how much it feeds into US inflation. You need to postulate a really really bad global scenario before Apple starts to suffer seriously.
post #39 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

My advice: don't solicit investment tips from anonymous bboards.

Er, so I shouldn't follow your advice then....which means I should solicit investment tips from anonymous bboards then?
post #40 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Watching the Canadian market over the past few days makes me wonder if this is just a correction... almost 10% down over the past 10 days and down over 6% in the last 2 days.

The sky is falling... the sky is falling... Nostradamus warned us about this... etc. etc.

Anyone know if iPads are edible?
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