Originally Posted by stelligent
Imagine this turns true - AAPL shares hit $500, or $600. But what does it mean if the US$ starts tanking even more than it has been the last few years?
The thing is even if the US goes into another recession, the USD is still going to be a go-to reserve currency. Even as the Fed prints more and more. What's the alternative? Euro? Nope, they're in all sorts of funk. Sterling? That empire is long gone. Renminbi? Not as a global currency... not yet. USD is still the currency of last resort. Although gold and previous metals will be going up. Gold has tripled in 5 years (against the USD).
I've been observing forex as a layperson for the past few years. USD can weaken as the economy weakens but it also operates inversely to stock market performance. For example, yesterday the markets got slammed and people started unwinding risk by converting their AUD, NZD, and other higher-yielding currencies back to USD. When the stock market is doing well, then people take more risks by diversifying from USD to higher-yielding currencies.
Well, that's my armchair analysis.