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'Stagnant' 2011 PC ecosystem viewed as opportunity for Apple to make gains

post #1 of 56
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Both Apple's Mac and iPad lineup are poised to make significant gains in the second half of 2011, as the Windows-based PC market remains "relatively stagnant" and is predicted to see 4 percent growth, according to a new analysis.

Deutsche Bank analyst Chris Whitmore believes the traditional PC market does not have "meaningful new offerings" coming this year, while Apple is aggressive with both new hardware and software. Heading into the back-to-school and holiday season, he sees Apple as "particularly well positioned for more share gains."

Specifically, Whitmore cited the recent launch of Mac OS X 10.7 Lion, as well as Thunderbolt-equipped MacBook Airs introduced last month as key products in driving Apple's market share gains.

While Whitmore sees the Mac making further inroads, he has projected the PC market will grow 4 percent this year, a number that is below Wall Street consensus. He said while corporate PC demand is healthy, consumer demand for Windows-based machines, particularly in developed markets, has disappointed.

"Our recent checks with the PC supply chain suggest overall orders have softened modestly in the past several weeks due to weaker European and U.S. consumer (notebook) demand and more conservative back-to-school expectations from OEMs," he said.

Further helping Apple's cause are the troubles apparently faced by PC makers looking to develop the Intel-based "Ultrabook" specification for thin-and-light notebooks. Whitmore said PC manufacturers have suggested that Ultrabook production won't ramp up materially until 2012, as the industry struggles to compete with the pricing of Apple's MacBook Air.



While the Mac alone is predicted to earn market share gains at the expense of Windows-based PCs, factoring in the iPad makes Apple's growth even greater. Calling it the "Gold Standard" of the tablet market, Whitmore said the iPad will continue to dominate for the foreseeable future, while competitors, like the recently discounted HP TouchPad, are expected to struggle.

Whitmore said Apple will make it even more difficult for the competition this fall, when it launches its next-generation mobile operating system, iOS 5. The fifth major version of iOS will add features like Notification Center, iMessage and Newsstand to the iPad, as well as the iPhone and iPod touch, when it becomes freely available later this year.
post #2 of 56
But Apple doesn't care, so...

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post #3 of 56
I think 4% for PCs is optimistic.
post #4 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

I think 4% for PCs is optimistic.

I think now the universe is imploding that any projections are even more a guess than they were before.
post #5 of 56
Something about that graphic, maybe it's the big yellow oval, but it almost seems like the iPad number is flipping the netbook market the bird.

On a more serious note I think that Apple is in a great position. Thanks to the iPod, the IPhone and the iPad it has an amazing reputation amongst consumers for quality - even luxury. As consumers get wealthier their purchases become more and more about lifestyle and aspiration, and less about necessity. Nobody aspires to an Acer netbook.
post #6 of 56
Great graph, I love the huge increase that is in no way supported by history. Apple is selling great, but there are not huge lines at the stores to purchase as this graph would need.
post #7 of 56
While those sad sacks in Redmond fiddle....
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post #8 of 56
that graph is terrible... what would be more useful would show an overlay of the iPads inclusion in the PC marketshare metric rather than have 2 entries for 2Q11...
that spike for apple is misleading.
post #9 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by rbonner View Post

Great graph, I love the huge increase that is in no way supported by history. Apple is selling great, but there are not huge lines at the stores to purchase as this graph would need.

The graph is of Notebook sales including iPads. 10 million iPads were sold last quarter, implying that IDC measures the total notebook market as 50million units per quarter. Which of those numbers do you not agree with?
post #10 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by OllieWallieWhiskers View Post

that graph is terrible... what would be more useful would show an overlay of the iPads inclusion in the PC marketshare metric rather than have 2 entries for 2Q11...
that spike for apple is misleading.

Agreed. I would like to see the Mac and iPad as separate entries.
post #11 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

The graph is of Notebook sales including iPads. 10 million iPads were sold last quarter, implying that IDC measures the total notebook market as 50million units per quarter. Which of those numbers do you not agree with?

I don't disagree with the numbers, but rather the interpretation - and the fact that they're plotting 'notebook sales including iPads' at all.

An iPad isn't a notebook.

They could also plot 'notebook sales including SUVs'. Or 'notebook sales including ham sandwiches' and get an equally valid graph.
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post #12 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

I don't disagree with the numbers, but rather the interpretation - and the fact that they're plotting 'notebook sales including iPads' at all.

An iPad isn't a notebook.

They could also plot 'notebook sales including SUVs'. Or 'notebook sales including ham sandwiches' and get an equally valid graph.

Neither SUVs nor ham sandwiches are products made by Apple.
post #13 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

I don't disagree with the numbers, but rather the interpretation - and the fact that they're plotting 'notebook sales including iPads' at all.

An iPad isn't a notebook.

They could also plot 'notebook sales including SUVs'. Or 'notebook sales including ham sandwiches' and get an equally valid graph.

The iPad isn't a notebook but it is a portable computer. MS has gone on record saying that the tablet is a PC (even if they only mean their tablets) so it's reasonable for people to produce graphs showing what that would actually imply if we took it seriously.
post #14 of 56
Yes that graph is pretty poor. More detailed info from Canalys.

http://canalys.com/newsroom/wintel-s...falls-under-82

Gartner and IDC will probably follow with their "media tablet" analysis.



post #15 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by piot View Post

Yes that graph is pretty poor. More detailed info from Canalys.

http://canalys.com/newsroom/wintel-s...falls-under-82

Gartner and IDC will probably follow with their "media tablet" analysis.

image: http://canalys.com/static/press_rele...hipments-1.gif

image: http://canalys.com/static/press_rele...hipments-2.gif

The Canalys graph states the category better.
  1. Uses PC instead of just calling the iPad a notebook.
  2. Includes tablets from al vendors.
  3. Doesn't oddly abbreviate notebook to NB like there is no room for the 6 extra letters.
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post #16 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by djsherly View Post

I think now the universe is imploding that any projections are even more a guess than they were before.

" . . . quit whining. Pessimism is for losers." -- Rob Delaney, via Gruber, yesterday.

I agree that pediction, especially of the future, is difficult. (I can never remember what physicist said that.)

But since we're at the beginning of Apple's benign colonization of everybody's pocket, and lap, and office, desk and bedroom, you might better be postulating that the universe is expanding.

"Everybody" includes China, Japan, Korea, Indonesia, India, Africa, Central and South America, Europe, Australia, Russia, etc., and even the fortress of backwardness, the USA. I can't say "North America" because the Canadians already know what's going on. What's going on is that the computer is being liberated by and for humans after 25 years of incompetent rule under the PC regime.

There has never been a revolution in the world's consciousness like the one that is coming, and too many people are looking for new ways to spread fear. The universe is not imploding.

Edit: "Prediction is very difficult, especially of the future." Niels Bohr, who said he was quoting Storm P., Danish writer and artist.
post #17 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by jacobo007 View Post

Neither SUVs nor ham sandwiches are products made by Apple.

Never been to the cafeteria at 1 Infinite Loop, have you?

They make a delicious SUV.

Wait...

Originally Posted by helia

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post #18 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by jacobo007 View Post

Neither SUVs nor ham sandwiches are products made by Apple.

And iPads aren't made by HP or Dell, either. What's your point?

Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

The iPad isn't a notebook but it is a portable computer. MS has gone on record saying that the tablet is a PC (even if they only mean their tablets) so it's reasonable for people to produce graphs showing what that would actually imply if we took it seriously.

Then they should report on all portable computers. However, they should then include Android tablets and possibly even smartphones, as well.

It's insane to publish data about notebooks and add in only a single product from a single vendor.
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post #19 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

And iPads aren't made by HP or Dell, either. What's your point?



Then they should report on all portable computers. However, they should then include Android tablets and possibly even smartphones, as well.

It's insane to publish data about notebooks and add in only a single product from a single vendor.

I sell iPads for a living, and I can say without a doubt customers are coming in by the truckload to do one thing: ditch their notebook for an iPad. This is by the thousands. On a daily basis my shop is filled with one type of person "How can I get rid of this notebook and fit an iPad into my business or personal life. Better, how do I do both?"

That question is answered in a few steps, and the accessories I help sell them to accomplish this all factor into it.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news guys, but the iPad IS replacing notebooks. Not MAYBE or KINDA, but it IS. This is why they have included notebook sales with the iPad.

The answer isn't categories, denial, anger, or frustration at math.

The answer is we're seeing a dying market of product, and the birth of a new one to replace it.

You can embrace this fact, or hide in a corner. They are side by side, and they are moving forward with or without your mind in the right spot.
post #20 of 56
Too bad they don't show every quarter with the iPad. Seems silly just to include it at the end giving the impression that Apple market share suddenly spiked.
post #21 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

And iPads aren't made by HP or Dell, either. What's your point?



Then they should report on all portable computers. However, they should then include Android tablets and possibly even smartphones, as well.

It's insane to publish data about notebooks and add in only a single product from a single vendor.

The other tablets are probably a negligible amount of market share. They may be included though. Contractual agreements also seem to consider the iPad a computer and not a mobile device. All of these categories are silly... Why can't we just look at something meaningful to investors... like profits?
post #22 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

Then they should report on all portable computers. However, they should then include Android tablets and possibly even smartphones, as well.

It's insane to publish data about notebooks and add in only a single product from a single vendor.

The problem is that nobody else except Moto is actually supplying tablet data anymore. HTC don't, Samsung don't, maybe Asus does - I never read their releases. That's before we even get into the whole shipped versus sold issue that seems to be a big issue for the alternate-tablets (or alt-tabs as I like to call em).

So long as the graphic is clearly labelled, which this is, I personally don't have a problem.
post #23 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by esummers View Post

The other tablets are probably a negligible amount of market share. They may be included though. Contractual agreements also seem to consider the iPad a computer and not a mobile device. All of these categories are silly... Why can't we just look at something meaningful to investors... like profits?

Why not look at both? Why do you imagine that any sensible investor would completely ignore market share?
post #24 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by danv2 View Post

I sell iPads for a living, and I can say without a doubt customers are coming in by the truckload to do one thing: ditch their notebook for an iPad. This is by the thousands. On a daily basis my shop is filled with one type of person "How can I get rid of this notebook and fit an iPad into my business or personal life. Better, how do I do both?"

That question is answered in a few steps, and the accessories I help sell them to accomplish this all factor into it.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news guys, but the iPad IS replacing notebooks. Not MAYBE or KINDA, but it IS. This is why they have included notebook sales with the iPad.

The answer isn't categories, denial, anger, or frustration at math.

The answer is we're seeing a dying market of product, and the birth of a new one to replace it.

You can embrace this fact, or hide in a corner. They are side by side, and they are moving forward with or without your mind in the right spot.


Stepping back on this comment by Dan...

1. The iPad IS the netbook/low-end notebook computer - because it sells in the same price range
2. The "basic" computing user does NOT need a ton of applications (MS Office, Adobe Photoshop, etc.)
3. The price point for this entry level internet, social media user is about $300-$500

So while I agree that Apple is kicking a-- in this market segment, it's only a matter of time before Apple's premium price strategy wears out as more competitors enter this pricing and functionality space.

The HP Tablet, which had a price cut to $399 is one such unit which can - possibly - win back market share and grow this segment. As much as fanboys HATE anyone/any company affiliated with Microsoft, competition fosters innovations. Whether you like or hate the new HP unit... it's $100 less. And one day may be $200 less. And at that point... people will ask... to surf the net, email, etc.... is it worth Apple's $499+ premium price?

Geeks say yes but their moms or dads may say - but it does what I want for less?
Why do I need to pay more?
post #25 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by LuxoM3 View Post

So while I agree that Apple is kicking a-- in this market segment, it's only a matter of time before Apple's premium price strategy wears out as more competitors enter this pricing and functionality space.

That's kinda what everybody said about the iPod too. Check out the marketshare in the dedicated PMP market sometime - it never happened.

Quote:
The HP Tablet, which had a price cut to $399 is one such unit which can - possibly - win back market share and grow this segment. As much as fanboys HATE anyone/any company affiliated with Microsoft, competition fosters innovations. Whether you like or hate the new HP unit... it's $100 less. And one day may be $200 less. And at that point... people will ask... to surf the net, email, etc.... is it worth Apple's $499+ premium price?

The Touchpad got reduced to $399 for a weekend, as yet nobody is offering an equivalent product to the iPad for significantly less RRP. In fact arguably due to the lack of Apps for alt-tabs nobody is offering an equivalent product at all.
post #26 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

I don't disagree with the numbers, but rather the interpretation - and the fact that they're plotting 'notebook sales including iPads' at all.

An iPad isn't a notebook.

They could also plot 'notebook sales including SUVs'. Or 'notebook sales including ham sandwiches' and get an equally valid graph.

This whole issue of classifying the iPad is strangely vexing for a lot of people. It strikes me as actually pretty simple. At the top, broadest level, we have general purpose computing devices. This includes everything from smartphones up to mainframes. From there, we can start segmenting the market into smaller pieces based on relevant characteristics: server vs client; business vs consumer; desktop vs mobile; keyboard versus touch; etc. The exact method of categorization really depends on what one is hoping to learn from the exercise. I can see contexts where grouping iPads with laptops and netbooks makes sense, I can see contexts where breaking the three out into their own categories makes sense, and I can see contexts where different combinations make sense.
post #27 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by LuxoM3 View Post

[ ... ] And at that point... people will ask... to surf the net, email, etc.... is it worth Apple's $499+ premium price?

Geeks say yes but their moms or dads may say - but it does what I want for less?
Why do I need to pay more?

And it's way cheaper to watch Hawaii Five-0 than it is to fly out to Hawaii for a Maui vacation. Why would you want to pay more? To have a better experience.

If your magic $399 / $299 price points are so vital to a computing product's success, then netbooks would have taken over the world. They didn't. iPad, with its superior experience, stopped them. Even at $499.

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post #28 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

I don't disagree with the numbers, but rather the interpretation - and the fact that they're plotting 'notebook sales including iPads' at all.

An iPad isn't a notebook.

They could also plot 'notebook sales including SUVs'. Or 'notebook sales including ham sandwiches' and get an equally valid graph.

Steve Ballmer characterizes tablets as PC's, so there.
post #29 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by SockRolid View Post

And it's way cheaper to watch Hawaii Five-0 than it is to fly out to Hawaii for a Maui vacation. Why would you want to pay more? To have a better experience.

I'm gonna use that.
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post #30 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by zindako View Post

Steve Ballmer characterizes tablets as PC's, so there.

Steve Ballmer appears to be an idiot, too. Who cares what he says? (After all, he said the iPhone would never sell and later said the same thing about the iPad. Do you really believe that he knows anything about the market?)

However, I can accept that tablets might be counted among notebooks for some purposes. What doesn't make sense is to consider only the iPad and not any of the other tablets out there. Or any of the other non-PC computing devices.

One example: why consider the iPad an not the iPod Touch? They both do almost the same things (although the iPad does them vastly better in most cases)?

Or why count the iPad and not the TouchPad. Or any of the other 'iPad killers' out there?

One can make a case for lots of different comparisons. There's nothing inherently bad about wanting to include tablets in the count of PCs for some purposes. What is inherently stupid is adding only one device from one vendor rather than setting the definition first and then including ALL the devices that meet the definition.

Either add in all the other tablets or leave out the iPad. There's really no other rational option.
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post #31 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by danv2 View Post

I sell iPads for a living, and I can say without a doubt customers are coming in by the truckload to do one thing: ditch their notebook for an iPad. This is by the thousands. On a daily basis my shop is filled with one type of person "How can I get rid of this notebook and fit an iPad into my business or personal life. Better, how do I do both?"

That question is answered in a few steps, and the accessories I help sell them to accomplish this all factor into it.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news guys, but the iPad IS replacing notebooks. Not MAYBE or KINDA, but it IS. This is why they have included notebook sales with the iPad.

The answer isn't categories, denial, anger, or frustration at math.

The answer is we're seeing a dying market of product, and the birth of a new one to replace it.

You can embrace this fact, or hide in a corner. They are side by side, and they are moving forward with or without your mind in the right spot.

Thanks for the report from the front lines. I would only add, as an iPad user from day one, that the form of the tablet makes it ten times more useable than my iBook, which hasn't been out of its case in months.

By that I mean that I use the Pad ten times more in terms of time on the computer. An estimate, probably an underestimate. Am I ten times more connected? I think so, but maybe don't ask my wife. Except when she's watching cat videos on my old iPod touch, then you can ask her about portable computers.

We might better be saying that tablets are going to be far surpassing notebooks, as well as replacing them.
post #32 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by rbonner View Post

Great graph, I love the huge increase that is in no way supported by history. Apple is selling great, but there are not huge lines at the stores to purchase as this graph would need.


The graph is designed really badly (As is par for the course for AppleInsider). Notice the "2Q11" and then the "2Q11 w/ iPad" immediately after. Visually, it implies a sequential relationship, but the two are actually happening *at the same time*!

God, really, what a terrible graph. It doesn't make any sense.
post #33 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by LuxoM3 View Post

Stepping back on this comment by Dan...

(snip)The HP Tablet, which had a price cut to $399 is one such unit which can - possibly - win back market share and grow this segment. As much as fanboys HATE anyone/any company affiliated with Microsoft, competition fosters innovations. Whether you like or hate the new HP unit... it's $100 less. And one day may be $200 less. And at that point... people will ask... to surf the net, email, etc.... is it worth Apple's $499+ premium price?

Geeks say yes but their moms or dads may say - but it does what I want for less?
Why do I need to pay more?

If you look at just the hardware that is a salient argument, but if you look at the broader picture, you see an Apple that is growing marketshare against the established Microsoft/PC hegemony significantly faster than the market is growing and the PC makers are growing share individually. That reveals strong consumer interest in the company. Moreover, Apple benchmarked what the tablet experience should be like and set a very competitive/performance profile to beat. Yes, PC makers like Asus can make cheaper tablet-style mobile devices. Heck how well are those Dell tabbies doing? They been around longer than most, and we don't hear a peep out of Round Rock about how those sales are doing.

Apple has presented what the tablet should look and act like. Android, WebOS and Win7/8 are all playing catch-up to that standard, and with millions of iPad devices already in the consumer pool, that sets a general expectation that is not yet being met by any of the current players. Look at some of the reported/rumored return rates - much higher for non-Apple devices, very low for Apple devices.
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post #34 of 56
I agree that Apple has a big opportunity to finally make some inroads into Corporate America. The incompatibility of Windows 7 is really forcing IT departments to look at other options especially since employees are demanding iPhone/iPad compatibility.

However, the latest version of Lion server is a huge roadblock. It broke so many thing that were working fine in Snow Leopard Server that it is more or less useless to IT professionals in it's current form. Very bad timming. I wish Apple had waited to release Lion Server after is was at least as good and Snow Leopard Server.

I love Lion, but the server app extension is pure crap at the moment.....

P.S. I got Virtual Web hosting to work under Lion ( not server ) by re-installing Lion and copying the virtual host and Appache config file from my Snow Leopard server. At least that is working now, but if you install the server app it completely breaks virtual hosting and makes it very unstable....
post #35 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flaneur View Post

What's going on is that the computer is being liberated by and for humans after 25 years of incompetent rule under the PC regime.

There has never been a revolution in the world's consciousness like the one that is coming, and too many people are looking for new ways to spread fear. The universe is not imploding.

I am fortunate to have participated in the last computer revolution from both sides:

1) I worked for IBM as a Technical Market Support Rep (System Engineer and various other jobs) from 1963-1980. I dealt mainly in large maimframe [sic] computers.

2) in 1978 I bought an Apple ][ -- by the end of that year, two others and myself opened a a retail computer store specializing in home-personal, then large and small business. We supported the hobbyists (geeks) but did not do much business with them.

Our (and the microcomputer's) target was largely small business and departments of large business.


Your prediction about the coming revolution is prescient -- not only in the scale (billions of potential customers), but in the magnitude of the effect it will have on the lives of these billions of people -- and society as a whole.


The revolution has already begun. The iPhone was the beginning of this revolution -- it and its progeny will uplift everything in their path.
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post #36 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by jacobo007 View Post

Neither SUVs nor ham sandwiches are products made by Apple.

With that 4% gain maybe they will.
post #37 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by danv2 View Post

I sell iPads for a living, and I can say without a doubt customers are coming in by the truckload to do one thing: ditch their notebook for an iPad. This is by the thousands. On a daily basis my shop is filled with one type of person "How can I get rid of this notebook and fit an iPad into my business or personal life. Better, how do I do both?"

That question is answered in a few steps, and the accessories I help sell them to accomplish this all factor into it.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news guys, but the iPad IS replacing notebooks. Not MAYBE or KINDA, but it IS. This is why they have included notebook sales with the iPad.

The answer isn't categories, denial, anger, or frustration at math.

The answer is we're seeing a dying market of product, and the birth of a new one to replace it.

You can embrace this fact, or hide in a corner. They are side by side, and they are moving forward with or without your mind in the right spot.


You make some very good points!

I have an older 17" AluBook that replaced my TiBook,

I haven't used it (other than to recharge its extra batteries) since I got the iP1 in 2007. The iPad just cemented the deal,

With the iPad and something like SplashTop (or other VNC) you have access to your home or office desktop -- and all the apps, content and data they contain

The laptop is the odd-man-out!
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post #38 of 56
It isn't a notebook, but evidence suggest it is stealing low end computer sales. So if people are treating it as a computer replacement, it seems far to report it as a PC.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

I don't disagree with the numbers, but rather the interpretation - and the fact that they're plotting 'notebook sales including iPads' at all.

An iPad isn't a notebook.

They could also plot 'notebook sales including SUVs'. Or 'notebook sales including ham sandwiches' and get an equally valid graph.
post #39 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBell View Post

It isn't a notebook, but evidence suggest it is stealing low end computer sales. So if people are treating it as a computer replacement, it seems far to report it as a PC.

Yes! And just wait -- when iOS 5 and iCloud come available this fall, Apple will have untethered (pun) the iPad's potential to be used as the only computer in a home or for many business uses.

I suspect that we'll see an explosion of iPad sales.
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post #40 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBell View Post

It isn't a notebook, but evidence suggest it is stealing low end computer sales. So if people are treating it as a computer replacement, it seems far to report it as a PC.

Automobiles replaced horse and buggies. Does that mean that an auto is a horse and buggy?


More importantly, it's certainly possible to calculate iPads with PCs. It is NOT reasonable to add in only iPads but not other tablets - or other products that are used instead of PCs.
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