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Apple seen doubling or even tripling market share of iPhone & Mac

post #1 of 48
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Apple's growth has been called the "ultimate platform adoption story" in a new analysis, which sees the potential for Mac and iPhone market shares to double or even triple in the next few years.

Shaw Wu with Sterne Agee said in a note to investors on Wednesday that Apple's adoption story includes "plenty of headroom for growth" in the coming years, in both the consumer and enterprise markets. He noted that Apple's iPhone has only 4 percent to 5 percent share of all mobile phones, and the Mac owns a similar share of total PC sales.

"We believe AAPL has opportunity to double or potentially even triple its market share in these end markets over the next few years, particularly with Greater China and international as underpenetrated opportunities," Wu said.

"We think the beauty with the AAPL platform story is the company doesn't need to win over everyone to continue success. The company just needs to continue winning a fair share of its vast end markets as more users get the AAPL advantage of 'it just works better.'"

Wu believes that Apple could be the best-positioned technology company to take advantage of what he sees as three "secular mega trends" that will drive technology in the next decade. They are:
The mobile Internet
Cloud computing
The consumerization of technology
Apple in particular will be driven by what Wu sees as a strong product cycle in the second half of 2011, including the recently launched Mac OS X 10.7 Lion and the soon-to-debut iOS 5 for iPad and iPhone, set for release this fall. Apple has also refreshed most of its Mac lineup this year, including the new MacBook Airs released last month with high-speed Thunderbolt ports.



Wu also reiterated his belief that Apple's anticipated fifth-generation iPhone could be a "bigger upgrade than expected." Citing industry sources, he indicated again on Wednesday that a so-called "iPhone 5" is expected to include dual-core processors, better cameras, a bigger screen, and a thinner form factor.

Sterne Agee has maintained its "buy" rating for AAPL stock, and reaffirmed its $500 price target. Wu believes Apple is positioned to outperform in the current tough macroeconomic environment.
post #2 of 48
"the company doesn't need to win over everyone to continue success."

This is what I and many, many others have said over and over again. Apple doesn't need to monopolize the entire market (like MSFT did) in order to make huge money. Can't tell you how many times some PC troll has come around saying Apple is a loser because of their small market share. Or Apple needs to make cheaper computers to gain share. Blah dee frickin' blah. Wrong!

MFST and DELL wish they were making Apple's money.
post #3 of 48
The resurgence of the Mac should give pause to people who think that Android's early marketshare gains will inevitably be maintained. Windows is a much stronger competitor to the Mac than Android is to the iPhone in terms of the platform's entrenchment in the marketplace, third party software support, and overall coherence. And the Mac's resurgence started from a much, much lower marketshare than what the iPhone currently has.

Even without legal issues, Android would have to be seen as highly vulnerable. Much of Android's marketshare appears to be "low quality" in the sense that many Android phones, particularly in developing countries, are not really being used as smartphones, but as feature phones. I strongly suspect that Android is near its marketshare peak.
post #4 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post

The resurgence of the Mac should give pause to people who think that Android's early marketshare gains will inevitably be maintained. Windows is a much stronger competitor to the Mac than Android is to the iPhone in terms of the platform's entrenchment in the marketplace, third party software support, and overall coherence. And the Mac's resurgence started from a much, much lower marketshare than what the iPhone currently has.

Macs are up to what, 3.something percent?
post #5 of 48
I don't see how this is possible. People are getting dumber (re: Tea Party).

Smart choices are getting more and more rare.
post #6 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleLover2 View Post

Macs are up to what, 3.something percent?

They are around 90% of the $1000+ PC category.
post #7 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by blastdoor View Post

...
Even without legal issues, android would have to be seen as highly vulnerable. Much of android's marketshare appears to be "low quality" in the sense that many android phones, particularly in developing countries, are not really being used as smartphones, but as feature phones. I strongly suspect that android is near its marketshare peak.

kftc.
post #8 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post

Even without legal issues, Android would have to be seen as highly vulnerable. Much of Android's marketshare appears to be "low quality" in the sense that many Android phones, particularly in developing countries, are not really being used as smartphones, but as feature phones. I strongly suspect that Android is near its marketshare peak.

It's far from nearing its peak. There's ten-fold of cheaper products sold for every premium one. Android is here to stay but it will be more and more low end.
post #9 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleLover2 View Post

Macs are up to what, 3.something percent?

Oh... but what a sweet 3 or 4 percent it is...

I'd open that business any day...
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post #10 of 48
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Originally Posted by AppleZilla View Post

I don't see how this is possible. People are getting dumber (re: Tea Party)

Not to mention the idiocy of those who need to scapegoat them at any opportunity, no matter how inappropriate or off-topic it is.
post #11 of 48
Huh, who would have thought? Make a superior product that people will pay a premium for, recommend to others (word of mouth advertising), and build extreme brand loyalty and the profits will roll right in. On the flip side of that coin, you can mass produce garbage and get your product in front of a lot of people, and make very little money doing it while giving yourself a bad name.

There will always be a market for cheaper goods, for people who just want to do something and don't care if most of the time it is frustrating or doesn't work. The real money is in the premium product where a clear differentiation can be made. AAPL has that figured out and is benefiting greatly from it.
post #12 of 48
But Google has more activations.

That's like a paperboy delivering extra papers to random households then claiming his circulation is bigger than his competitor who delivers less papers but has more paying customers.
post #13 of 48
What matters for Apple, to keep its dominace, is to continue growing their market share enough so that developers continue to author for apple first. As we are seeing that market percentage doesn't need to be that big - cause those that buy apple are much more likely to buy apps.

Of course as Microsoft has already demonstrated in the pc wars, the other key is to provide a great development environment/tools. And apple has got that in spades with iOS. They just got to stay ahead of saint no-evil google and any others that pop up.

Let the haters take their eye off the ball again with such outdated and one dimensional thinking as the megahertz myth and largest market share wins fallacies. Seems like wall street may be finally getting it too.
post #14 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by macinthe408 View Post

But Google has more activations.

That's like a paperboy delivering extra papers to random households then claiming his circulation is bigger than his competitor who delivers less papers but has more paying customers.

In my life I've seen sales people who drop into the office at 9 am, go out make their calls, come back at 4:30 pm, write their orders and leave by 5 pm. Weekends with their family, 2 and 3 week holidays. Next to no stress.

I've also seen the guys who get in at 8 am and are out all day until 6 pm, writing orders until 7 pm or later, working on the weekends and taking very few holidays.

... but in the end... they both had the same bottom line. One went after and took only the cream and quoted all the others really high (sometimes getting the order regardless). The other took any orders that came his way... mostly small, low margin jobs.

I always called it, "The Apple Way", when I saw a guy going after only the cream.
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post #15 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hunabku View Post

What matters for Apple, to keep its dominace, is to continue growing their market share enough so that developers continue to author for apple first. As we are seeing that market percentage doesn't need to be that big - cause those that buy apple are much more likely to buy apps.

Of course as Microsoft has already demonstrated in the pc wars, the other key is to provide a great development environment/tools. And apple has got that in spades with iOS. They just got to stay ahead of saint no-evil google and any others that pop up.

Let the haters take their eye off the ball again with such outdated and one dimensional thinking as the megahertz myth and largest market share wins fallacies. Seems like wall street may be finally getting it too.


You make a good point. Apple's Market share does not need to be the biggest , it just needs to be big enough. However, They remain the single largest development platform for mobile App developers. No one has ever shown any evidence that there is a single platform you can develop unmodified Android apps for that is anywhere near as large as the iPhone. (Without resorting to the Ugly least-common-denominator crap a lot of Android apps turn into).
post #16 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by WelshDog View Post

"the company doesn't need to win over everyone to continue success."

This is what I and many, many others have said over and over again. Apple doesn't need to monopolize the entire market (like MSFT did) in order to make huge money. Can't tell you how many times some PC troll has come around saying Apple is a loser because of their small market share. Or Apple needs to make cheaper computers to gain share. Blah dee frickin' blah. Wrong!

MFST and DELL wish they were making Apple's money.

That Apple can now buy 12 Dells. Where's Mikey??!!!
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post #17 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleLover2 View Post

Macs are up to what, 3.something percent?

I think it's just at 5 worldwide, 11 in the US.

Ten years ago it was under 2.
post #18 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gustav View Post

They are around 90% of the $1000+ PC category.

That would suggest they have very little room to grow unless they start targetting the sub $1000 PC category which I don't think they will do.

I suspect Mac sales will continue to grow steadily as they expand further into international markets such as China and India.
post #19 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun, UK View Post

That would suggest they have very little room to grow

Not at all. It suggests that all that people have to do is buy more PCs over $1,000.

It's not like there is a ceiling for computer sales and only a certain number can be over $1,000. That's nonsense.

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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post #20 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

[...] Wu believes that Apple could be the best-positioned technology company to take advantage of what he sees as three "secular mega trends" that will drive technology in the next decade. They are:
The mobile Internet
Cloud computing
The consumerization of technology
[...]

I would say that "Cloud computing" falls into the "consumerization of technology" trend. What we call "cloud computing" now used to be called "heterogeneous interoperability with internet connectivity" back in the '90s. Oracle, for example, sold turnkey data center solutions to many of the internet bubble companies at the turn of the century. Now there's iCloud for the masses.

So, when did these trends all start? My estimates:

The mobile internet - 21st century.

Cloud computing - Late 20th century.

The consumerization of technology - The dawn of man.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

[...] Sterne Agee has maintained its "buy" rating for AAPL stock, and reaffirmed its $500 price target. Wu believes Apple is positioned to outperform in the current tough macroeconomic environment.

Could Apple become the first trillion-dollar company in terms of stock valuation? We'll have to wait for the economy to heat up again to see that happen.

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post #21 of 48
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Originally Posted by AppleLover2 View Post

Macs are up to what, 3.something percent?

And everyone cares what Apple is doing while no one cares what Microsoft is doing. Microsoft has been labeled by more than one pundit as a company in decline. Microsoft is irrelevant these days and not seen as any kind of innovator. They no longer control the direction of technology. So what has that big market share done for them lately? Apple sells more, takes in more revenue, is more profitable, and is worth more. That's what market share has gotten Microsoft.
post #22 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post

The resurgence of the Mac should give pause to people who think that Android's early marketshare gains will inevitably be maintained. Windows is a much stronger competitor to the Mac than Android is to the iPhone in terms of the platform's entrenchment in the marketplace, third party software support, and overall coherence. And the Mac's resurgence started from a much, much lower marketshare than what the iPhone currently has.

Even without legal issues, Android would have to be seen as highly vulnerable. Much of Android's marketshare appears to be "low quality" in the sense that many Android phones, particularly in developing countries, are not really being used as smartphones, but as feature phones. I strongly suspect that Android is near its marketshare peak.

I agree that it will probably continue to take out the low end and cut in to feature phone sales. I doubt it is anywhere near the peak. All smartphones still have quite a bit more market penetration ahead of them. There are still a lot of feature phones out there. Even if Apple releases a low end phone, it will inevitably increase in market share because the market is growing. A lot of people go to Android as a stepping stone on their way to an iPhone. I'm amazed at how many people get an Android phone based on their confidence in Google and then find that it isn't as user friendly as they would like.
post #23 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mister Snitch View Post

Not to mention the idiocy of those who need to scapegoat them at any opportunity, no matter how inappropriate or off-topic it is.

Agreed...I watch and comment on politics a lot but I avoid doing so in forums like this because it is rarely appropriate. Furthermore, you can always tell when somebody does not have a good argument to offer when they resort to simple insults like calling their opponent "dumb" or "idiots" or whatever with no substantive or logical points.
post #24 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wovel View Post

You make a good point. Apple's Market share does not need to be the biggest , it just needs to be big enough. However, They remain the single largest development platform for mobile App developers. No one has ever shown any evidence that there is a single platform you can develop unmodified Android apps for that is anywhere near as large as the iPhone. (Without resorting to the Ugly least-common-denominator crap a lot of Android apps turn into).

I think Android attracts some web developers. Apart from 3D games, it seems to have trouble attracting the hard core native app developers that have moved from OS X and Windows over to iOS. At first I thought they would attract some hard core Java application developers, but then I realized there are not many out there... most Java devs are writing web services and don't seem to have interest in the platform.
post #25 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun, UK View Post

That would suggest they have very little room to grow unless they start targetting the sub $1000 PC category which I don't think they will do.

Actually if more people in the sub $1000 category decide to buy a Mac then there is a lot of room to grow (as already mentioned above).

If not then Apple is already targeting the sub $1000 market with the iPad.
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post #26 of 48
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Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

And everyone cares what Apple is doing while no one cares what Microsoft is doing. Microsoft has been labeled by more than one pundit as a company in decline. Microsoft is irrelevant these days and not seen as any kind of innovator. They no longer control the direction of technology. So what has that big market share done for them lately? Apple sells more, takes in more revenue, is more profitable, and is worth more. That's what market share has gotten Microsoft.

This is beginning to sound like "What have the Romans done for us?" (see "Life of Brian"). Just for starters Microsoft makes massive profits every quarter and would make even more if they stopped burning money on losing products.
post #27 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gustav View Post

They are around 90% of the $1000+ PC category.

True, but that was not the stat under discussion.
post #28 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post

I think it's just at 5 worldwide, 11 in the US.

Ten years ago it was under 2.

"Apple's line of Mac computers are seen making further market share gains in the coming years, growing to 4.5 percent of sales in 2011, and 5.2 percent of new PCs sold in 2015.

The latest predictions from Gartner show Apple increasing from the 4 percent worldwide PC market share the company took in 2010. The numbers are well up from the 3.3 percent share Apple had back in 2008."

If we can believe AI, the most recent stat is 4%.
post #29 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Not at all. It suggests that all that people have to do is buy more PCs over $1,000.

It's not like there is a ceiling for computer sales and only a certain number can be over $1,000. That's nonsense.

And you think more people are going to buy $1000+ PCs in the midst of one of the worst recessions for years in the US and Europe?

I don't agree. I think sales in the US and Europe will continue to grow steadily with most of the sales growth coming from ramping up sales in emerging markets who still have growing economies and an expanding middle class hungry for expensive western goods.
post #30 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Actually if more people in the sub $1000 category decide to buy a Mac then there is a lot of room to grow (as already mentioned above).

If not then Apple is already targeting the sub $1000 market with the iPad.

Exactly! There seem to be very few that have figured this out. With the iPad, Apple is targeting those who want a sub $900 computer in addition to those who are not technologically savvy and just want a computer that is easy to use to check email, browse web, instant messgage, twitter, facebook, and play a casual game. Those are the major uses for sub $900 computers anyway. Having a few other possible uses just makes it a bigger plus.
post #31 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrDoppio View Post

kftc.

Re: this, plus your "mausoleum" post yesterday -- what's the Italian equivalent for "schmuck"?
post #32 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by esummers View Post

I agree that it will probably continue to take out the low end and cut in to feature phone sales. I doubt it is anywhere near the peak. All smartphones still have quite a bit more market penetration ahead of them. There are still a lot of feature phones out there. Even if Apple releases a low end phone, it will inevitably increase in market share because the market is growing. A lot of people go to Android as a stepping stone on their way to an iPhone. I'm amazed at how many people get an Android phone based on their confidence in Google and then find that it isn't as user friendly as they would like.

note that I said *marketshare* peak, not volume peak. And I guess I should have clarified that I meant "smartphone marketshare" not "cellphone marketshare".
post #33 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flaneur View Post

Re: this, plus your "mausoleum" post yesterday -- what's the Italian equivalent for "schmuck"?

I would reply it was "Flaneur", but I don't wanna get personal.
post #34 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by airnerd View Post

Huh, who would have thought? Make a superior product that people will pay a premium for,

I would gladly pay a premium above and beyond the price of an iMac to get a headless iMac in an easy open case. Put the $1200 iMac sans screen in a mid size case and I would pay $1500 for it. Apple makes an extra $300 and saves what the screen would have cost them.

See, an easy open case big enough for two hard drives and an optical drive and the choice of what kind of monitor are features not negatives.
post #35 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrDoppio View Post

I would reply it was "Flaneur", but I don't wanna get personal.

Touché. Very funny.
post #36 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun, UK View Post

And you think more people are going to buy $1000+ PCs in the midst of one of the worst recessions for years in the US and Europe?

Given that Apple has posted record quarters every quarter in the four years prior and three years during said recession, YES. I DO. Because I know how to look at crap and extrapolate.

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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post #37 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun, UK View Post

That would suggest they have very little room to grow unless they start targetting the sub $1000 PC category which I don't think they will do.

I suspect Mac sales will continue to grow steadily as they expand further into international markets such as China and India.

Uh... they are most definitely going after the sub $1000 PC category... it's called the iPad. And notice how it's sales are doing? Apple is very successfully going after the $500 computer market with a great PC for that price.
post #38 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by SixnaHalfFeet View Post

Exactly! There seem to be very few that have figured this out. With the iPad, Apple is targeting those who want a sub $900 computer in addition to those who are not technologically savvy and just want a computer that is easy to use to check email, browse web, instant messgage, twitter, facebook, and play a casual game. Those are the major uses for sub $900 computers anyway. Having a few other possible uses just makes it a bigger plus.

When iOS 5 comes out people are going to have options and abilities with the iPad that dwarf what you can do with any other PC, including the Mac. Most people don't realize this yet, but the capabilities are coming.

For example: With an iPad 2 ($500), AppleTV ($100) and HDTV set ($500-1000 for most people) you will be able to wirelessly take anything on your iPad and send the audio/video to your HDTV. You could watch a movie, surf the web or run apps and games. Your iPad becomes a big touch surface remote. This has all kinds of family entertainment implications, casual surfing, edutainment, and who knows what else. Being able to do this wirelessly is huge. Using an ultramobile PC to take over a big screen and use it in this way is huge. We really haven't seen this before, not with something this inexpensive, this high quality or this easy to use.

Once people buy an iPad and they have their HDTV's as so many already do, buying an AppleTV is such a relative nominal investment that the payoff of diving into the Apple ecosystem in this way (once iOS 5 is here) should become apparent to these people very quickly.

At this stage people using an iPad + AppleTV and iOS 5 in this way, they won't need or want a PC, or a Mac. Sure they have their uses, but for the average non-computer user the iPad will always be a bigger hit and do more of what people actually want at the right price.
post #39 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Not at all. It suggests that all that people have to do is buy more PCs over $1,000.

It's not like there is a ceiling for computer sales and only a certain number can be over $1,000. That's nonsense.

Trouble is that quite a few people are willing to pay extra for Apple. My parents for example have been using Windows for years, but when it's time for an upgrade in a couple of years, they have have made it clear that they are heading to Apple. Quite simply they just want it to work and will pay that little extra (because it is a little) to get that peace of mind.
post #40 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleLover2 View Post

True, but that was not the stat under discussion.

But it's an important stat.

Luxury cars are 20% of the entire car market.
Luxury SUVs are 1% of the light truck/SUV market.

Now these are different markets - people are way more willing to buy luxury cars vs. "luxury" computers, but if you think about it, Apple having 90% of these $1000+ sales means they are literally the only option if you want a high fashion, high refinement and well designed machine where money is less of an object. If Apple made cars, it would be like if they were BMW, Mercedes, and Audi and their subsidiaries all in one company, and their only competitors would be Volvo, Jaguar, and the rest of the small luxury makers (but Apple still arguably wouldn't have even that level of competent competition).

Source: My rough calculations based on this page. You may get slightly different calculations as I rounded but they won't be far off from mine.
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