Apple and Android still have the problem of requiring very expensive data plans. The price of an even the latest iPhone pales into insignificance compared with the cost of a dataplan. BlackBerry Messenger does not require a data plan so is very popular with kids.
I do think RiM is in serious trouble, but they have also managed to find this new market in which to grow and this can help fund the changes the need to make to recover. There are two sides to RiM, the North American business smartphone side which is dying fast and the Rest of the World consumer messaging phone side which is growing fast. This makes it much harder to predict if RiM will ultimately fail or be able to turn it around.