Microsoft exec says PC 'not even middle-aged,' rejects post-PC label - Page 5

Ha!

MS is exhibiting a "rit of felous jage".

This quote made me laugh:
The company is betting that, over time, PCs, tablets and smartphones will come together into a "unified ecosystem."

Over time?? This is a "prediction"? How about now! OSX and iOS… desktops/laptops + phone/tablet… in a 'unified ecosystem'…

They describe what Apple is already doing, phrase it as something yet to come, and try to take ownership of it...

It's like 'predicting' the weather a few hours after it happens, and then claiming you were right about it...

I don't think anyone rational, including Apple or Jobs, is claiming that PC's are "going anywhere".

However I do think, especially for normal people and home users, they will become less relevant. Most people - like my parents - have a general purpose personal computer (a couple of Mac's) not because it's what they wanted, but because it was the only choice they had. With the iPad, my Dad has exactly what he wants. A computing appliance that allows him to get email, web and applications like sports scores, stats and tracking, that he's interested in - all without the overhead of a traditional computer that he has absolutely no interest in at all.

That's where iOS is going to displace the traditional general purpose personal computer. I have no doubt that sooner or later there will be iOS native laptops and desktops - or versions of Mac OSX that out of the box that are identical in feel to iOS.


Yup, those users will never go away - heck, for a good chunk of my time I'm one of them too! But they are the minority of potential users out there. That's the important distinction.


Again, hundreds of millions of the machines that are out there are there because they were the best solution at the time. There's a new paradigm in town, and if 50% of those machines were replaced by a traditional Windows or Mac machine I'd be shocked.

I do give HP kudos for peering into the future and discerning that much! It's already very, very hard to compete in the Windows marketplace today. Now that iOS is starting to suck a healthy portion of the oxygen out of the room, it's going to get that much harder.

The irony is, Apple owns the high end of the market - and always has. Now instead of trying to compete in the low end of the market with Netbooks and ultra-crappy ultra-cheesy low end machines, they invented a whole new market paradigm that is replacing the low end PC market. Vendors are getting squeezed - and squeezed hard! - from both ends by, of all companies, Apple!

It's truly a fun time to be a tech enthusiast. Especially one who's had to endure the almost decade of "beleaguered" that almost proved to be true, then the next decade of "Apple Tax". And now the pathetically frantic protestations of "fanboys" and "tricked into buying style over substance".

Apple has little to fear from Google, Microsoft or anyone else - at least right now. Because right now, they are the only company that is singularly focused on their real customer - the end user.

They have been criticized as not being "serious" for being consumer focused, derided for being "developer hostile", complained at for not bowing to the enterprise and kissing the IT priesthoods feet - more ways that Apple is destined for failure have been created than I can track! And yet their growth continually accelerates, quarter after quarter - year after year. You would think that people would be getting the message by now - and yet the entire tech industry seems wholly incapable of processing and admitting to the real reason for Apple's success.

Then again, for an industry that tends to deride non-technical users with such charming terms as "Lusers" and "newbs" perhaps I shouldn't be so surprised. Heck, I've fallen into that trap myself...

Folks, tell me what is the difference between a "PC" (desktop/laptop) and a "Post-PC" device (aka smartphones/tablets etc) ?

1) Both have "personal" OS's ( as in they reside inside said devices).

2) Both have "applications" that are both contained and run inside said device.

3) Both have input methods ("keyboard" or other forms of input).

4) Both have output methods (typically screens/monitors).


The only difference? Form, size and how "powerful" it is.


Netbook vs laptop.

What is its difference?

Size and how "powerful" it is.


Tablets vs laptop

What is its difference?

Physical keyboard


ALL of these devices fall under the broad definition of a "PC".

Don't fall into the trap of marketing speak

We all know that all of these devices are "PCs" in different form factor.

If you cant realize that, you are in denial.

Always the sign that a high quality discussion is about to ensue!


Here is why you will continue to be mystified and evidently angered by Apple's continued steamrolling of the traditional tech market - the use case you outlined affects maybe 2% of the people on the planet.


A gross oversimplification of the iPad and iOS by a typical tech snob. My father does far more than web, email or "consumption only" with his iPad. For him, it is his sole computer and more than what he needs.


The iPad doesn't replace the PC - that much is obvious.

What the iPad does is fill a niche where before the PC was chosen not because it was the best fit, but because it was the only choice at the time. I have no doubt that for the fast majority of people on the planet, an iOS device will be their primary computing device. That may seem like a crazy claim given the nature of these forums, but remember it doesn't get much more "inside baseball" than hanging out and posting on a technology related forum! Those of us even reading MacWorld, let alone posting in these forums are an edge case of an edge case of an edge case! It's why iPad sales are continuing to accelerate, instead of level off or retreat. The iPad isn't necessarily aimed at us - although I use mine all the time as a supplemental piece of technology. But there are fare more for whom it is more than sufficient as a primary computing device - and that is what Apple is positioning themselves for with iCloud and the, at first blush, insane move of "demoting" the Mac to a peer.

The key difference between iOS and traditional PC's, or even OS's like Android, is experience.

iOS is an experience - an Appliance. Traditional "computer" terminology and concepts are eschewed (leading to ridicule and marginalization by techies). Instead, iOS devices are results oriented. Look at the way they are advertised: Apple "Here is how we can help you do X, Y and Z" - Everyone else "Your girlfriend will flip over the dual core processor"

Huh?

And people wonder why iPad and iPhone sales are accelerating? Seriously? Can people really be that dense?

So you are saying the difference is HOW is it being MARKETED, rather HOW is it different in concept.

That's not enough of a good argument.

You are only partially correct. The term PC has for a long time been interpreted by many to mean a wintel box as opposed to a Mac. The Term was coined with the IBM PC (see link below). So when we long time Mac users refer to a PC we mean a wintel box not a personal computer that may also be a Mac. You'd have to ask Steve what he meant by PC in Post PC.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM_Personal_Computer

I had several of these as well as Apple equipment and worked in computers throughout this era so the distinction is very clear to me. I can see how those that grew up with the term PC could assume it literally meant any personal computer.

iOS is succeeding because it's nothing like a traditional PC OS


Well, if a Windows tablet will be "full windows" how can it be anything other than Windows with a touch layer "strapped on"?

The two concepts are at odds with each other. Apple is successful with iOS because they were willing to throw out the traditional computing paradigms and break new ground.

Apple will have little to fear from Microsoft as long as they stick to this bone-headed notion that all they need is Windows on a tablet to succeed. It hasn't worked for the last 10 years, and it really isn't going to work for the next 10 years now that there are products like the iPad to show the way.

That's why HP's total fumbling of WebOS is so disappointing. They were the only ones really positioning themselves to compete on the same playing field with Apple. Now it will be interesting to see if anyone will be able to really step up or not. I'm not holding my breath

How they are being marketed is also describing the difference between the two categories. That you keep missing the obvious isn't a problem of the market, iOS or PC's - it's purely your inability to perceive the real difference isn't technology but how that technology is presented and made (or not made) accessible.

That's key for how my Dad views the iPad. Not as a computer - he doesn't want a computer! Instead, it's that thing that let's him look up information, communicate with friends and family, etc. It's relevant to him for what it does, not because of what it is.

It's appealing to him because it's NOT a computer. It's a device that works in a intuitive and intimate way. Case in point - you probably think using a mouse is no big deal. He's 73 - once I finally got him used to a mouse and then handed him a notebook with a touchpad, I had to start all over again. Not so with the iPad. He sees it, he can touch it and manipulate it directly. No abstraction. It's immediately intuitive and very intimate.

If your first reaction is "that's lame" or "he's stupid" - bingo. Your the problem, not the market. There are far more of my father out there than you and that's the difference and why iOS will own the market while PC's decline.

HP didn't just decide to hop out of PC's as well on a whim.... they saw the obvious handwriting on the wall. The traditional PC market is starting a downward spiral - heck, Acer has already learned the hard way that the low end of the market has a new king in town...

Oops, time warp 101. Laps won't replace desktops cost/ performanc willnadvance for both, ....

iPads will eventually supersede laptops for 90% of people and when they need big iron, they will use the cloud.

Rarely has ANYONE said PCs go away, but their portion of market, mindshare, and innovation will diminish over time.

If MS insists on pushing the desktop onto the tablet, like the last 15 years, they will continue to be marginalized in these new markets. iPod, iPhones all over again.

Their advantage is that they are taking their time to do whatever they will do right (Android, Chrome, Blackberry, and WebOS are not). Their danger is that they are afraid of being their own strongest disruptive competitor dooming themselves to rehashing their early failed tablets.

Give Apple credit it's new products have always been a threat to their existing products and businesses, but this is what you got to do..

So MS needs to build the Post-PC products and Services that kills their PCs and then they will own the new market. Do they have the ideas more importantly the guts?

So your definition of a "PC" is in how "powerful" or versatile the OS is. Form factor does not matter to you, no?

Any device, regardless of its form factor, with a less "powerful" OS will be deemed a "Post-PC".

Kind of like how a netbook isnt a "full" laptop?


So does that mean the iOS devices are kind of like the netbook of laptops? Since they are less "powerful" than a "full" OS like the Mac OSX.

But, since you or someone else stated that since iOS is 80% OSX, would'nt all the iOS devices also be a "PC" by the majority rule?

All it is, is a device that has all the excess fat cut out while keeping the essentials. That is the only difference. It is still a "PC", in my opinion, according to the broad generalized definition of the word, regardless of marketing folks like to say otherwise.

Hey, I got a new term for it: mini-PC.

The two aren't related in the least but dream your little dream of denial all you want. It still won't matter

Ah, you have hit the nail on the head in the last paragraph. History is littered with companies that could not compete with their own successful products and died. In fact it seems to be the norm not the exception. Apple, as you say, succeeds by having no fear of their new innovations making long time successful products obsolete.

iOS is a total re-imaginging of the interface. While there are core technologies and API's that are shared between Mac OSX and iOS, the user interface elements and overall design of the system is unique to iOS. Insinuating that it's about "just cutting excess fat while keeping the essentials" just demonstrates that you really are completely clueless as to why iOS is taking off and Windows tablets are still going nowhere.

Yes, there are areas of overlap - but iOS verses what Microsoft has stated for Windows 8 tablet or whatever they are going to name it and what Google has delivered for Android are two entirely different things!


Your still hung up on technology! Whether it's a PC or not is irrelevant! And really, whether it runs Windows, Mac OS, iOS, or Plan 9 is irrelevant. The iPad and iPhone are about the experience.

The computer for the rest of us.

It's not just a cheesy phrase (and nor is it "just marketing"). If it does work without people having to think of it as a computer - that's sizzle! My father couldn't care less that the iPad runs iOS written by Apple. What he cares about is he can pick it up and the thing immediately makes sense. It does meaningful work without forcing him to adapt to the technology. He doesn't have to learn mice, windows, file systems or any other such gobbledygook. He can put it down, pick it up and pick up right from where he left off. All the information and "files" he wants are always available, at his fingertips, where he expects them. There are no surprises. It's very predictable.

It's not a science project or tech for the sake of tech.

So you can argue about PC, Post PC, real computer, consumption device, media tablet, marketing - whatever inside baseball circle jerk floats your boat. Guess what he doesn't care! The iPad is here, he has it, it does all he wants without getting in the way and for that he loves it.

And he is not alone, nor is he in the minority. We are.

So there. I don't know how else I can explain it. If you still don't get it it, oh well - I tried. Protest all you want - it's irrelevant. The market is speaking and it's just getting started. With iCloud, Apple is getting ready to tie a bow on the the true meaning of hassle and "PC-free" computing. This is just the warm up...

I still think you are missing the point that for three decades the term PC had a specific meaning that transcends the literal words. A 'PC' was (and always be) a Wintel box, pure and simple while Apple made Apple ][s, Apple ///s, Lisa and Macs. It is a fact the term PC was a marketing phrase by IBM and then picked up by clone makers such as Compaq when Billy Boy stabbed IBM in the back. So in a way you have it backwards when you accuse Apple of using marketing to manipulate the term PC.

P.s. Google 'origin of the term PC' then perhaps you will grasp the fact that sometimes your opinion can just be
plain wrong.

No, my definition of PC is in the traditional sense of what "PC" has meant for the last several decades. Expandable hardware with general purpose operating systems that try to be solutions for just about any problem, that are open ended and expandable depending on how the operator wants to use them.

I'm not saying that's bad - I like traditional PC's (Windows or Mac) mind you. It's just what they are.


Power is an illusion. To most techies - such as yourself - power is something to be benchmarked and measured. To my father, power is the ability to do work by having the technology conform to him, not the other way around. For that reason, a traditional PC is totally unappealing to him for all the reasons that I first was attracted to them!

As for netbooks, I don't deem them "full" laptop's because they are a compromised experience. All is sacrificed for price - performance, build quality, resources - lopped off in haphazard and uncoordinated ways that make the overall experience of using one absolutely painful. And if upgraded to be useable, they are often more expensive than non-netbook alternatives. It's no surprise to me netbook sales have tanked - they suck!


Sigh - you are going to have a rough and tough next few years trying to reconcile the success of iOS.

You ever heard of the phrase "less is more"? Meditate on that one for a while and you might understand more clearly why your question is totally irrelevant in the context of this discussion.


Nope - since technology is not the critical defining factor. You need to get out of your narrow range of thinking and expand your horizons. Get out of the box - literally

I believe that tablets will dominate eventually at least 80% of the market, but not with the technology we have now available to the consumers.

Technology keeps moving, and to the dismay of those who still follow microsoft, Apple is the leading of that new technology, Apple also has the money to keep investing in advancing it really quick.

PC will not die, nobody is saying that, but its use as a mainstream will be replaced by tablets, it will take maybe 5 years, but it is a trend!

The Mac air is an example of what I am saying, it is moving closer to what a tablet is without sacrificing much of what a PC has to offer at least at the consumer level, although I have to say that most of my tasks in my business can be done using an Air.

PCs still will have its use, they will never die, but saying that, PCs and tablets will be moving closer and closer as technology evolves..

...and bad news for the windows people... windows will become a second fiddler to mac operating systems as widespread usage, the gap is closing really fast...unless Microsoft will comeback with a miracle...

George

Not destroying. Creating the PC, then creating the PC's successor.

One could argue that if they stick to their guns Microsoft will destroy the PC as we know it


Indeed.

Seems to me that your a very different consumer than I am.

Your the type that would gobble up information thrown out by marketers, chew it and process it.

I'm the type that looks at specs, then marketing information and be skeptical throughout the entire process (whether it is for iOS, Mac, windows, Android or any other devices).

I tend to not weight the marketing speak by others as heavily as the information that I gather myself.

I work closely with marketers in my field and I know first hand what kind of fluff they like to put in to sell the product. As long as its not illegal, they will incorporate it into their plans.

Also, why are you bringing your father into this? I want YOUR opinions, not his.

For now. Apple, with Final Cut Pro X, is exactly right about where the market will be - tape is dead. Just like with USB, there needs to be something there to show people how to move away from it. USB was out for years - from Intel - but until Apple shipped millions of USB-only iMacs, the USB market didn't go anywhere.

Same with Final Cut Pro X. There are tapeless workflows, but they are clunky, awkward, and often grafted on to software designed to work around tape workflows. What a shocker!

Where Apple stumbled - either out of ignorance, or perhaps out of weariness of trying to convince people, was by immediately discontinuing the previous Final Cut and not better articulating their plans for integrating traditional workflows - either directly or through third parties.


Only people who are more emotional driven than business driven.

If Apple was really going to "abandon" the Pro market, why show up at NAB and why not call it iMovie Pro? Apple isn't stupid - they have no intention of ceding the pro market. I think, like with iOS, the Pro Market they are going after is one that isn't really defined and doesn't really exist yet - but will be the dominate market not too long from now.


What a crap question - Aperture 3 fixed all my issues with Aperture 2 - sure, there are a few things I would still like to see but vastly prefer Aperture to LightRoom. And at under $100, it's a complete steal.


In Ballmers pipe dreams


Hahaha! Highest customer satisfaction in the industry and competitors dropping out of the market because they can't compete? Second greatest market cap?

Here's a thought - perhaps Apple is successful because they aren't playing the game that you think they should be in order to be "successful" in your eyes? Otherwise you would have to chalk up their success to brand loyalty, fandom, marketing or some other irrational explanation - and seriously, which is the more easily legitimate reason? That they make products people want or they trick them into buying overpriced stuff that is inferior?

Hyperbole much?

It doesn't really matter what Microsoft thinks. Apple is clearly the company in control of how the public sees computing. It's a matter of competing visions, and Microsoft's vision is a defense of the way things currently are. Apple 's, on the other hand, is indicative of the future they are currently creating.

Two years ago, nobody was *really* in the tablet market. Today, companies are losing their shit because they can't keep up with Apple's forward thinking.

The growth pains that Apple is experiencing in software, such as final cut x, is just their transition into the post pc era (pro software prepping for major adjustments for post pc devices). Other companies are not prepping or the major changes ahead, and when we're finally there, they're all going to feel the pain. Apple's golden age is far from over, imo.

If Apple were playing the same game as everyone else and the game from the last 20 years, you might have a point.

They aren't playing that game - they have invented the next game and they are executing beautifully against it. You and Galbi are stuck in the same myopic past...

Look like you are the type that would buy a Moto Xoom, because they have more ram, dual core processor, multitask, and runs Flash but end up under performing iPad2 in every possible benchmark.

As an owner of nearly every desk top Mac there has ever been right up to the current line I have plenty of love for the high end lines and pro apps, .... But I have to agree with you 100%. Luddites always make a lot of noise but innovation must move forward.

Possibly. But different isn't automatically negative either. Sometimes different is.... just different!


Now you are throwing out meaningless generalizations in an effort to marginalize my position as meaningless.

Other wise known as the logical fallacy of the Ad hominem. Your point is hollow and meaningless.


And your the type that is in the minority. You are a techie and you are evaluating technology through that lens.

You are the minority. I am too, BTW. The vast majority of people do not view computers or devices like the iPhone or iPad as technology. They are tools. Their first and foremost question is "will this thing do what I want with the least amount of fuss on my part?"

The device that answers that question positively will "win".

It really is that simple.

Apple knows this. Apple designs to this. Apple is fanatical in answering that question. Case in point. Cut and Paste. Techies were incredulous that "something so simple" could be left out for so long. Apple knew that they had to get it right - there is no changing something that fundamental later on without causing chaos and confusion.

I can think of no better example of that fanatical dedication to the ideal of "user first" than that. What many deride Apple as "incremental updates" or "forced obsoleteness over time" Apple regards as careful and deliberate incremental change that is ALWAYS designed to increase the user experience in a positive and meaningful way - NEVER to merely check some box on a list of arbitrary "must have" features.


LOL - so the Ad hominem continues. Are you saying my father was taken by "others"? For someone who doesn't know him (or me) at all you sure are fast and loose with your assumptions.

Here's a news flash - he asked me about it. He was there on launch day to get it. And if he didn't like it, he was and is more than capable of taking it back if he didn't like.

Except he didn't and continues to use it daily.

So get off the "Apple tricks people into buying their kit" because their sales, customer satisfaction ratings and industry leading sales with lower than everyone else return rate speak otherwise.

You can pontificate all you want in forums like this, the market is painting an entirely different picture that you appear to be ill-prepared to explain. Or understand.


Stick with that view and you will continue to be mystified. You do not get to be as successful a company as Apple is on marketing alone. And if you think otherwise you have been hanging out with your marketing friends FAR too much


I bring my father into this because he is a member of the future state of computing.

The proverbial "Rest of Us".

My opinions about his views are absolutely relevant because your's and my views as techies are irrelevant in the new world.

"Post PC" is NOT about you, I or the majority of those posting in forums like this.

Whew - we really have a "forest for the trees" issue of biblical proportions here...

Exactly. People can claim the PC is relevant and still important all they want.

Meanwhile the market is passing them by.


Exactly. If anything, Apple is just getting started - while the gap grows. With HP and WebOS out, I don't know who will be able to catch up with them. Within five years I think we are going to see a complete role reversal. And that's pretty safe - really I don't think it's going to take more than two at the current rate of change - but I think some of the "I don't get it!" crowd's heads would explode if they tried to digest that little tidbit...

One mans substance is another triviality.

Careful on how quickly you are to marginalize someone elses needs and wants based on your needs and wants.


Bully for you. Your still in the minority.

And your still no better nor necessarily that more sophisticated (or special) than those who can use an iPad as their sole device.

Wow, talk about over-inflated perceptions of importance!

I hear this kind of comment a lot but it's so obviously flawed in it's conception I find it amazing that people are pushing it.

When you actually examine the content it's easy to see that it's just a repeat of those IBM comments about the (then) "new" desktop PC and how it was a "toy" next to a mainframe, and that couldn't do (you guessed it) "data visualisations with large sets." I mean it's almost word for word the same statement.

The reality is that Balmer is kind of right when he says "the tablet is just a PC." The only real weakness, or "toy-like" aspect of the iPad is the fact that you can't input data into it very efficiently or at any speed because it doesn't have a proper keyboard. The software is a non-issue because it will only get better over time and the hardware specs will also very quickly evolve to the point where they are as powerful or even more so than the average desktop.

Imagine it's a few years from now and Apple decides to reverse their previous decision and integrate a proper stylus into the iPad. All of a sudden it's not only good for creation it's actually *better* than a laptop for creation.

I wouldn't bet any money on tablets being "toys" for very long. You can already use them for the majority of things that people use their laptops for. It's really only a matter of time before they take over IMO.

Another way to say this - I bring him up for perspective.

Stop your tech-oriented naval-gazing, look up and realize there is a wide, wide world out there of all kinds of users with all kinds of requirements.

It's not all about us techies. Or at least it shouldn't be - for that I am thankful there is at least one company, in Apple, that is willing to buck industry trends, ignore the tech elite, and design devices exclusively targeted at end users.

Because at the end of the day, I enjoy being an end user and having access to stuff that just works and I don't have to think about too! I like that I can be a tech and a "normal user" if I want to be. Choice - real choice, not artificially defined idealism like "open" - is good!

Yeah but you'd never refer to a tablet or phone as a PC.

While PC is supposed to mean 'personal computer', we've used it in the same context for 30 years so an association has latched onto it, which conflicts with modern personal computing devices.

I don't think post-PC means something that's not personal computing, it's just not what we associate with the term PC.


'Suspiciously fast' - that's an adverb Phil hasn't used yet. That should shake the marketing up a bit.

I hope they allow access to mass storage because while iCloud will work in some cases, there will be many cases where the Flash storage isn't enough and upload is not feasible. There's also the issue of backups to someone using an iPad as a main device. Some Time Machine backup is going to be needed so that if you are editing in iWork, you can go back revisions.

But even a Time Machine drive can't exist without a filesystem manager/formatting tools. I think they can do it without making something that behaves exactly like the Finder and it can be done without modality or drag and drop.

In fact, given that they've designed iOS a certain way with their sandboxing, they probably just need an app specifically for external storage. For example, a dedicated Time Machine or iSync app for iOS that manages an external drive. This means you can get a 1-2TB drive, buy movies/music on an iPad and build up a collection on the drive. Ideally, they'd introduce RAID-1 Time Machine drives though with up to dual 1.5TB 2.5" drives, given that it's the only copy you'd have.


I think to some extent that's true but the "All My Files" default in Lion is quite telling and ties in with what you are saying about metadata. I think they understand that files need to exist independently of applications but don't want to impose the burden of file management on the user so they are trying to figure out how to do it cleanly.

An application-centric filesystem won't work forever because it's not something you can bring to a desktop environment and the more that files build up, the harder it is to control.

Apple already has a mini filesystem browser for certain media types, which can be seen in iMovie for the iPad - skip to 3:30:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KL3PslgN4Mw

You can see an issue straight away and that is that when you have so much media, you have to scroll through hundreds of items every single time to open a file. Not only that, you can't reference movie clips by name so you have to search every time. The range-based key wording in FCPX would help here of course but requires you to do tag management i.e pick unique keywords.

A hierarchy gives you some help in that every single file must have a unique location but managing this on a touch device would need planning.

I like the media browser in iOS and if it had a documents area, that would help cover other file types e.g eps vector files. But to stop it getting out of hand, I think they need another layer. Something like 'projects' where you can group multiple data types together. This way if you work on a movie, you can create a project metadata entity on its own independent of an app e.g 'Holiday in Italy'. Then you can tag footage with this project id along with your photos and possibly music that you think will suit.

In iMovie, you'd then be able to narrow down your metadata by project so that it's nowhere near as tedious to search through files. Multiple select would help though so you don't have to tag items one by one and this can be done with tap-hold like in Mail.

I think you are the one with the wishful thinking here. A lot of this sounds like dreaming to me.

You talk about Linux desktops but Linux is already dead in the water and makes up only the tiniest fraction of desktops. There were more people using an iPad (before iPad 2 even came out BTW), than all the Linux desktops in the entire world.

You are correct that a "segment of the population will always use desktops," but you have no proof, nor do I think it even likely, that this is actually a "sizeable" segment. There is indeed a big segment of the population that uses their desktop only for web browsing and email and those are the very people that are jumping for joy and ditching their desktop in favour of the iPad.

To use the post PC metaphor, the amount of people who are going to need trucks or really need them now is not ever going to be that large. Most people just want a car that works.

The fact that they use the analogy of "about to take up snowboarding" tells me all I need to know about Microsoft's hipness and foresight.

NEEDS TO PULL HIS HEAD OUT OF HIS ASS. end of story.

Hyperbole bs truth.

Dumping their inevsrment in FCP to suddenly invest in Avid or Premeire Pro. Shcos nor business work this way. Few have the money or authority to make such a choice in the way you describe

This brings up and interesting point:

If Ballmer speaks in the woods and no one is around to hear him, is he still wrong???

I agree. And as a graphic designer, we have been using Wacom tablets for more than a decade now. Mouse and keyboards are great, but were not always the best option for a lot of our work. I expect a lot of innovation for graphic artists in the coming years because of tablets.

I may not have explained it properly. Linux desktop in order to load the VDI (virtual desktop) on a workstation, not to run it. VMware will probably "appliance" it and call it VDI loader or something. In either case it will be done to avoid paying a windows license which is the point I was driving at
VDI is not for private individuals but for corporate desktops. It allows us to manage them centrally and give all of our users the same experience.

Otherwise I agree with you, in fact if you read my previous message again you'll see that you're barking up the wrong tree

As long as there are people who depend on the likes of Adobe CS, Autodesk, and smaller professional software publishers like The Foundry, the PC will live on. If Apple doesn't want to be a part of that niche market then that is their choice.

95% of average people don't need a PC because their phone does everything they need. At work they are waiting tables, stocking shelves, using a cash register, driving a truck, cleaning things, etc. That is the evolution of the American workplace. Pretty soon it might add up to 5% professionals, 60% menial laborers, 30% unemployed and 5% students. But everyone will have a smart phone just like everyone now has a TV, regardless of income.