Microsoft exec says PC 'not even middle-aged,' rejects post-PC label - Page 2

Snowboarding. Radical dude. Oh, I think I'm going to trade in my iPad for a corporate HP PC, because I want to look cool, young, and hip.

I sort of agree and sort of disagree. It's more nuanced than that, not an either-or. I think we're most definitely in the post-PC era that everyone has been predicting for the last 10+ years, but I think the desktop PC and laptops will continue to have a role in our lives for years and years to come.

About 10+ years ago, the desktop computer was the workhorse and the laptop was a lower-powered, quick access mobile PC. Now, laptops have gotten powerful enough to challenge desktops, leaving an opening for lower-powered, quick access mobile devices that phones and tablets can fill.

So, I don't see a clear demarcation as far as the post-PC thing goes. I see a gradual transition where desktop PCs and laptops will still be a part of it. I don't understand arguing it one way or the other.

Ok, the problem with Microsoft's perspective is that the Windows PC was always more than what your average person needed at home. People at home use a PC to browse the web, read and write emails, view pictures, listen to music, etc. The iPad does all of these exceptionally well therefore could easily replace a PC for a lot of poeple. Not to mention the benefits of increased portability, instant on access and the touch interface. Microsoft is overlooking these issues because they are stuck in their traditional way of thinking. I will say that the iPad isn't quite ready for the corporate world in terms of producing content. It is really good for consuming content which is what most people do at home. So I think Windows will do well for some time in the corporate world.

The iPad is not a fad. It will evolve into something much more powerful down the road.

Its also many times more powerful than the vaunted NeXT Cube, and contains far more storage. If you had shown me an iPad 2 back in 1991, it'd have flipped out and begged you to take me with you back to the year 2011. I'd be like, this thing is as cool as Vanilla Ice, baby!

I think there are a lot of different't ideas floating around out there about what a "post PC era" means. There is a lot of focus on individual devices and their respective capabilities within enthusiast circles, however I believe the post PC era is more about how applications function across many devices and how these devices interact with each other. Cloud computing is one part of this however look at the moves apple is making: Driverless printing, air-play, remote desktop, etc...

Eventually, people will be able to seamlessly connect their iPhones, iPads, tv's, computers, and whatever else they have. Applications will be accessable from anywhere on any device and leverage computing power shared from massive data centers. Average people simply won't need PC's anymore in the conventional sense. An iDevice is simply a method of interfacing with apps and cloud computing. The only thing limiting this right now is bandwidth limitations and the speed of development, so for now we are stuck with basic word processing and games like angry birds... (kinda like the original macintosh :P)

"Get 'em 'fore they're gone!"

The PC isn't going anywhere. Graphic designers, accountants, print designers, gamers all need PC's and the tablet will never be able to handle the computing power or the screen size we need.

but how does that number stack up against those that don't.

And how do those uses stack up against what is not

I would hazard in both cases that it's like 20% at most.

Remember Jobs was talking about Joe and Jane Q Public and their casual needs. And for them, the age of the PC is waning. Because there is an app for that. Sure they will still have a PC for a while but it is no longer the center of their computing universe and perhaps not what they use 80-90% of the time

Nobody is saying the PC is going away. Just saying that PCs will soon become less relevant for the mass majority.

Both visions are right. There will always be a place for the desk top computing environment whether it is fueled by a mainframe computer or by the desktop computer. While laptops may or may not survive, the tablet/iPad type computer will continue to mature and gain capability.

Where the quoted comment above falls apart in limiting the future of the tablet/iPad is very simple. The poster lacks the proper recognition for and appreciation of the history of the PC. He and all of us would do well to remember that, when the first PCs were "born" they were almost toys. They supported simple games and did tasks only hobbyists could enjoy.

In the 1950s, large mainframes could barely do much more than add and subtract large numbers. In the 1970s, personal computers could barely add and subtract while mainframes were capable of solving complex problems. In the 1980s, the first serious personal computers were as capable as a mini computer. Mainframes were thought to be passé and on the way out. In each decade since then, computing sophistication has advanced at each computing power level.

The first PC productivity applications were unsophisticated, almost crude by today's standards. It has taken three decades of desktop maturation to get to the point that productivity of the desktop PC has become ubiquitous.

In time, the tablet/iPad will also get to the point that the desktop is today in terms of power and software sophistication. But, the desktop PC will also continue to evolve. There is a place for each now and in the future and each will have capabilities we only dream of now.

PC's don't need to get rapidly and dramatically better, they need to get rapidly and dramatically simpler. It is no longer a race for power and technical prowess, it is now a race for usability.

Couldn't agree more. Computers are going to continue to improve how they interface with us, and our cultural norms and expectations will continue to evolve around these new computers. People cling to the keyboard because it is the fastest and least intrusive current method of transcribing large amounts of data from our minds into digital form. This will not always be the case. Eventually we will have vastly different expectations of what our computers are to perform, and what role we play in that process. Anyone who thinks that modern views on what qualifies as work will always be the status quo is similar to people who thought that books would always be written and bound by hand on paper similarly crafted by hand. The world evolves, and claiming that work will always require a computer with a tangible flat display and a keyboard is not thinking about how history has always progressed.

There already is a product that's close to what I could use, Axiotron's Modbook. Apple could make their own take on that, perhaps based on the current MBP, but that wouldn't be anything like an iPad anymore.

I've been using my iPhone to pay bills for years now.

I think your are partly right. I am using the iPad at work as a Great Device for noting and prtocolling work and results at suppliers. My. Main Problem ist the data Exchange between iPad and Windows, what is my work operating System. So a USB Stick, SD Data Exchange Support will Be Great. Wireless LAN ist mostly forbidden in work. So for me I Hope there will Be One Day a Newton app... Using a iPad As a notepad... Sketching, typing, and viewing and Command writing to office documents

So, the Hardware isn't Bad... But some Key features are missing or are to complicate today.

He didn't. However, the usage of the term Post-PC was brilliant. Now all the competitors think he meant that, so they are trying to create tablets that do everything a PC does

Apple, OTOH, realizes that Post-PC simply means devices that do what most people do most of the time really well (watch media, surf the internet, communicate with people across the world). Jobs articulated this in his truck/car analogy, and all his competitors seemed to miss it.

So while the competitors think they will be successful creating a PC replacement (after all, its clear that they get their ideas largely from Apple), Apple is creating devices which are enhancements, not necessarily replacements for the PC.

There we goanother fool who thinks post-pc = replace pc

Also, we have the oh so original "productivity" argument.

Tell me, how many airline strategies has the PC revolutionized? How much medical usage has the PC revolutionized?

The answer is despite trying a ton, basically, PCs don't show up in an airplane at all. OTOH, the iPad has, and is continuing, to revolutionize the act of flying a plane, and serving passengers on it. The iPad is saving airlines millions simply by saving fuel by reducing the weifht of the manuals pilots need to carry. They aare saving airlines millions by reducing the number of passenger rolls flight-attendants need to print. They are saving doctors tons of effort, and improving medical records accuracy by allowing doctors a digital device they can actually carry around with them all the time.

And all this has been done within 18 months of its release. The PC serves a very important purpose. However, it does not serve ALL purposes, and the iPad helps fill in some of the gaps the PC left behind.

I am about to burst out laughing.

Apple could discontinue the Mac Pro tomorrow, and still be fine for the next many decades. The Mac Pro barely contributes anything to their bottom line.

I don't think they will do that, and I think they will release a decent upgrade, because they want to continue serving their existing customers. But to think Apple's future depends on the future of the Mac Pro is really funny.

One VERY IMPORTANT factor people here are missing is that the Enterprise is changing radically. Its going in 2 (almost opposite, but not really) directions:

1) Cloud based. The enterprise is going back to running most of their stuff in a central server, with people logging on to their enterprise network. This is a huge blow for MS, because centralized networks are dominated by Linux/Unix.
2) Consumerization. The above centralization means that companies can allow their employees to use the device of their choice to access the network (something like Citrix is what is enabling this big time). This makes the employees happier (Linux users can use their machines, mac users can use macs) and saves the company money since they do not need to provide devices to all employees.

Both these trends hurt MS. Fortunately, I think MS does realize these dangers and are working to remedy them (Windows 7 is a largely consumer focused release, and they are making huge strides in the virtualization department). However, the memo does not seem to have filtered down to the PR department just yet.

now you just need dell and Acer to go and you kill over 60% of cheap PC's that break in a day.

I agree with the main point of your post, but, the number of people who do "real work" who don't even need a tablet, let alone a full computer, is pretty high. This phrase is insulting as all hell, and people need to stop using it. "Real work" is not defined as "things people do on a computer".

For some people, like myself or probably most people on a forum like this one, an iPad is an enhancement. But I think that for quite a few people, an iPad is all that they will ever need or want. Some of the older generation comes to mind. Grandma is not going to order a bunch of parts from Newegg and build a souped up gaming machine with dual video cards and 24 GB of RAM to use as their main PC. Grandma is very likely scared to death of computers and might never even have touched a computer in their entire life. But, give an iPad to your grandmother and there's a good chance that she'll be messaging and video calling with her grandkids in no time. The iPad is of course technically speaking a computer, but it's also very much an appliance, which is partly why it's been so successful.

I think that there's a segment of the market which has stayed away from PC's. Those same people that might have been terrified of PC's and ignorant as to their usage can get a super user friendly iPad and use that as their main and only machine for surfing, emails and everything else that somebody chooses to do with their iPad. For these people, which I believe represents a big part of the market, they don't need or want a full "PC" because an iPad fulfills their needs and does it in a way that is better than anything else, thanks to it's next generation UI.

Other people who are content creators and professionals that rely on powerful desktops will continue to use them. PC's (both Mac & PC's) aren't going away anytime soon. The PC people who get offended by the usage of "Post-PC" are just being ignorant baboons because it doesn't mean that PC's (both Mac & PC) are disappearing anytime soon. The landscape is just shifting.

The desktop PC is not going away, but will be special purpose instead of general purpose.

The new General Purpose computing device will be the tablet, or a very light notebook like the MBA.

Yet again microsoft misses the boat, much as they did the cloud. Now, microsoft doesn't understand the Post-PC era, which doesn't mean that people will start dumping their PCs, but rather, PCs are not necessary as the digital hub. Apple's vision of the cloud, iCloud, takes prominence as the digital hub, ensuring that all devices connected to that user stay in sync, music, contacts, schedule, photos, documents & more. The Post-PC era will see less importance on the home PC, while greater usability of portable devices will enable far more opportunities such as reading news & professional journals, time management, instant communications, e-mail & more. Much of the simpler tasks can now be handled on portable devices, allowing us to be anywhere for these tasks & unchaining us from the PC anchored to your desk. But, with microsoft already signaling it's lost in the mobile arena, windows phone hasn't gone anywhere by microsoft's own admission & their tablet hopes still years away, they are are quickly becoming yesterday's tech

Cheers !

Nonsense.
Apple Cloud services are provided mainly by Microsoft Azure platforms.

Nicely put. Once iOS 5 is in use with, syncing freedom, most people will function in a post-PC age, not a post-computer age. In the common vernacular, computing will refer to those activities that the iPad is maturing to accommodate more and more. No one thinks of computing as the translation that a microwave oven makes of input commands into a calibrated, timed execution of the magnetron (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cavity_magnetron) for example. Neither will they think of computing (or whatever term is employed) as sitting down at a desk, starting up this device and using a mouse and keyboard to meet their day-to-day computing needs.

Perhaps Dilbert summed it up best:

http://dilbert.com/strips/comic/2011-08-03/

Just imagine how many IT guys will loose their jobs once the world realizes the scam they have been into since the 80's(?).

Once (say) 90% of the people who use computers to work (that 90% which needs constant help to overcome the inherently excessive complexity of PCs) realize they can get away with a device that just works, a device that hides all the useless technicalities in a layer of abstraction. A device that shows to the user only what the user needs to know to operate. A device that gets the job done.

It doesn't need to be the iPad, but it's a pretty good start in the right direction I believe.

We developers can continue using our trucks to build that software, but regular office people or home users who check e-mail, write documents or use spreadsheets at most, they need something way more lean.

JM2Cs


Dilbert always sums it up best

Except that "us" is in the minority which "geeks" fail to realize.

I think cameras is also an apt analogy. Until point and shoots came, SLRs were the only option. The point and shoots were never as good as SLRs, and may never be. But for most people they are good enuf, and today they are a bigger market then the SLRs. SLRs will never die, but their market is more niche than mainstream. Similar will be the fate of full fledged PCs I believe, while tablets will become ubiquitous.

- typing this from an iPad.

I am one of those who Uses a Windows PC at work, has a MacBook at home, and am using an iPad now. My wife, and mom just love the iPad and it is all they need.

So, you're outnumbered 2 to 1! Until my daughters left home, the odds were for me, even worse!

With full-frame imaging, more natural, high-fidelity (as in Retina-like) displays and interchangeable lenses, non-SLRs will in all likelihood take over before too long. Sad, I love the SLR myself. I'd like to be able to look into a viewfinder still though to frame a shot, feels more natural and less distracting to me. However, peripheral vision can be useful in framing a shot. \

He's correct...the PC, ie windoze machine, is literally not going anywhere. It will simply sit there and die.

Utterly ridiculous statement - "will never" - that's just a stupid thing to say. Of course in the future they will have enough processing power, storage, pico projectors, wireless external monitors - you have no idea what the future holds. I know accountants who already use the iPad as their main input device when out with clients, and this in year two of a new device.

Steve J., in his keynote said:
But somehow Steve B. doesn't seem to appreciate the implied[*] connotation of PCs being like (the clunky?) trucks (of these farmers) .
[* cf. B&W TV series such as the Partridge Family ]

A brilliant comparison, indeed, setting the tenor for PC-market perception at one fell swoop.

However, I still believe full-size workstations will remain relevant (with evolving functionality) and necessary for serious design/development work in many areas.

Yes today the iPad can't do any of your work but in 3 to 5 years' time you will be having crow for lunch.

Remember what they said about the MacBook Air and vulture funds were selling down Apple's stocks as Jobs was introducing the Air and forward to today it is as good as a desktop, so go figure.

I'm starting to believe that an open source OS (Linux? Android? Mozilla? Other?) will trounce Microsoft in the next 3 to 5 years. Whether iOS/OS X+ has a big future, not sure. I think if Jobs vanishes, that will be the *beginning* of the end for Apple.

And actually I think the most likely is that our devices will become thin clients (HTML5+?) to a network/cloud based system. In many ways they already are that iCloud is the extremely rudimentary beginning to a cluster of computing centers that is probably their best shot at remaining relevant in 5 to 15 years.

I think you hit the nail with your comment. Regarding HP en webOS, I honoustly think there was a lot of pressure going on from Microsoft to let the idea of webOS PCs go. In the end HP did not want to take the risk. Maybe the spinoff will or will be bought by someone who wants to stand up to Microsoft (Can't think of a company that will)

As for post-PC vs PC+, the only real differences between the two are power and interface. As chips are miniaturised and battery tech improves, the first becomes irrelevant over time. As for interface, it's already easy as pie to add a keyboard and mouse via Bluetooth if that's what you want. All peripherals can in fact be networked when the postPC matures, including going wirelessly into a setup that perfectly mimics the user experience of a desktop PC.

I wish people would pay me for this blather again LOL

if it maintains its tightly locked down environment, there wont be any crow to eat

can't wait for the day everybody in the industry points a stern finger of blame at him for the downsize of Miscrosoft. He may be a billionaire but his reputation and record would lie in tatters.