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IHS revises iPad outlook, says Apple will control tablet market till 2013

post #1 of 29
Thread Starter 
IHS iSuppli has reissued its report on the future of tablets, adding additional pessimism to competitors' prospects for selling against the iPad while increasing its optimism behind Apple's ability to build enough iPads to own tablets through 2013, a year longer than it originally expected.

In its revised report on "media tablets," the research firm bumped up its overall growth predictions for all shipments, stating that 60 million tablets will ship in 2011, 1.1 million more than it originally stated. In 2015, it now expects annual shipments to reach 275.3 million, up from 262.1 million in its previous report.

Half of the additional million tablets to ship this year are expected to be sold by Apple, with IHS stating that the iPad maker will ship 44.2 million units within the year. In 2015, the firm now sees Apple selling 120.1 million iPads, an increase of more than 22 million iPads over its previous prediction despite increasing its prediction of total tablet production by only 13.2 million.

That also means IHS has increased Apple's expected share of the market this year from 64 to 74 percent, and its expected share in 2015 from 32 to 43.6 percent of all tablets.

"IHS now believes Apple will account for the majority of tablet shipments through the year 2013, one year longer than the previous outlook," the firm stated. It did not articulate reasons why Apple's share of the tablet market is expected to shrink.

Apple's majority share among iPod competitors never eroded significantly, the company's majority position in iTunes digital media hasn't been overtaken, its sales of Apps haven't met any challenge from alternative smartphone software stores, and the company is now unmatched among so called "ultrabook" competitors with the MacBook Air, with no signs pointing to an eventual loss of that market either.

IHS analyst Rhoda Alexander wrote that the tablet market "remains a one-horse race," noting that "all the momentum in the media tablet market is with Apple right now."

Alexander said competitors "cant seem to field a product with the right combination of hardware, marketing, applications and content to match up with the iPad. Furthermore, Apples patent litigation is serving to slow or complicate competitors entry into some key regional markets."

The report also noted that "makers of tablets using Android and other operating systems are encountering slower-than-expected sales for their products and facing other challenges, including lagging development of content and applications for their products."
post #2 of 29
Keep revising. Wake me when 2015 arrives and the Tablet market is just called the iPad Market.
post #3 of 29
Got that right.

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

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post #4 of 29
Why put an end date?

Oh I know, because Apple will have something better they way iPhones lowered iPod sales.
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post #5 of 29
Why 2013? Do these analysts know what's coming in 2013 that will unseat the iPad? Do they know something everyone else doesn't know?? Do tell.

Oh, that must be when the iPad5 comes out.. .makes sense.
post #6 of 29
HP bailed too soon. There's a consumer tablet (iPad) market to be sure, and then there's a business market.

Look at the businesses that are integrating iPads in cash register systems, restaurant menus, and so on. There's a need for custom designs (pads that can be misused and dropped, for one) that Apple simply isn't going to fill.
post #7 of 29
Currently, there's an iPad market, and then there's a microscopic, money losing market for inferior, junk, copy-cat tablets. Even at reduced prices and even at firesale prices, those other tablets aren't worth much.

As for the analysts, a five year old child can pick up an iPad and tell you that it's better than anything else out there.
post #8 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahmlco View Post

HP bailed too soon.

I don't think that they bailed too soon. Their mistake was entering the market in the first place. And as for business, the iPad is doing rather well in that market too.
post #9 of 29
By the way, have we heard from any of the a-holes who were predicting AAPL would fall through the floor today? The market is down over 1% but AAPL is down only about .5%. That doesn't sound like much of a collapse to me. Notice the crickets chirping from these losers?
post #10 of 29
Where are the other tablets though? Do they only count the competitors that were actually sold...because touch pads are being more than just given away now. The tab is also being given away with tv's and so I don't understand. In my experience, I've seen a good 10-20 iPads, 1 playbook and 1 tab. Even though my personal sights don't matter, those statistics don't lie...
post #11 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

By the way, have we heard from any of the a-holes who were predicting AAPL would fall through the floor today? The market is down over 1% but AAPL is down only about .5%. That doesn't sound like much of a collapse to me. Notice the crickets chirping from these losers?

They are busy rereading their comments about how Apple would never sell a phone, how the iPhone will fail in its first year, then second, then when real competition came out, then how the iPad would never sell cause it was just a big iPod, then....
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post #12 of 29
I bet they keep revising this every year to push back by one year the point at which Apple loses a majority of the tablet market.

It's really funny to watch again and again how people can't seem to wrap their heads around Apple's success.
post #13 of 29
I'm reminded of an old Far Side where sometime in 2012 there's written on a chalkboard "Then Magic Happens" where all the competitors suddenly reorganize the entire way they produce products such that they understand and address the reasons people are finding, trying, liking, pricing, and buying iPads.

Edit: "Then a Miracle Occurs"...
post #14 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahmlco View Post

HP bailed too soon. There's a consumer tablet (iPad) market to be sure, and then there's a business market.

Look at the businesses that are integrating iPads in cash register systems, restaurant menus, and so on. There's a need for custom designs (pads that can be misused and dropped, for one) that Apple simply isn't going to fill.

In addition, 11,000 ipads are going into cockpits of commercial airplanes, eliminating a lot of paper ... one NFL football team has issued iPads to all of its players ... their new playbook and video review display ... schools across the country and the world are realizing how intuitive and the teaching aid it provides ... the majority of the top 500 companies are evaluting via their IT departments ... govenrment, medical ... it goes on and on.

If it is true a much higher resolution screen unit will be available early next year ... then the medical industry will go wild ... the graphics development teams will have a field day.

When you look at the non-availability to competitors of the key building blocks ... milling machines, touch screens, custom chips, Flash memory, etc. Show us where is that magical time frame when the competition is going to start to catch up, then overtake Apple, and Apple then takes a back seat.

I think that the media hype being offered on behalf of the competition to iPad2 is a lot of wishful, hoping. No where do I see fact for infrastructure, strong developer base ... and with iCloud about to break loose, all the data sharing, etc with all of Apple products will be most apparent. While Apple is making great business decisions with follow thru, the CEO's of competitive wannbe's are getting media hype and press, but little else.

I forgot to add the security of iOS vs Android ... don't know anything yet about Mango, et al. But 76% of Android is now struggling with malware ... why is that? What does that mean to consumers? Since I switched from MS driven computers (to Apple) I don't have viruses, don't buy or run antivirus programs ... my iPad2 just simply works all the time. My grandkids picked it up the first time they held it and in less than 10 minutes had "Garageband" in full swing. They had never used and iPad or Garageband. Now, that is intuitive.
post #15 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahmlco View Post

HP bailed too soon. There's a consumer tablet (iPad) market to be sure, and then there's a business market.
.

Nah, they made a bad decision. But got out in time before it became a terrible decision.
post #16 of 29
"IHS has increased Apple's expected share of the market this year from 64 to 74 percent"

That's an interesting quote considering that Apple's market share already exceeds 90%.

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post #17 of 29
I think this firm said Apple will have a 42% share not because they think the iPad will take a backseat to any other competitor, but to illustrate what happened with the iPhone. The iPhone is the most profitable and most bought phone in the world, but it only has about a 28% share give or take some. The reason is that the other 72% is being filled by a bunch of other companies. So while the iPad will probably be the best and most bought in 2015, there will most likely be a lot more competitors with better tablets etc. It is a reasonable assumption by them, but of course no one will know until that day comes.
post #18 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by Booga View Post

I'm reminded of an old Far Side where sometime in 2012 there's written on a chalkboard "Then Magic Happens" where all the competitors suddenly reorganize the entire way they produce products such that they understand and address the reasons people are finding, trying, liking, pricing, and buying iPads.

Edit: "Then a Miracle Occurs"...

That's not ``The Far Side,'' but still a great comic. Gary Larson's signature is not hard to miss.

post #19 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by Corporate View Post

It is a reasonable assumption by them, but of course no one will know until that day comes.

It is not a reasonable assumption by them because the phone market is completely different than the tablet market. Phones are subsidized by the carriers. The main reason why Android phones have a big marketshare is because they're giving them away in many cases. Such is not the case with the tablets.
post #20 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by madhatter61 View Post

Show us where is that magical time frame when the competition is going to start to catch up, then overtake Apple, and Apple then takes a back seat.

I never said anything about overtaking Apple.

I did, however, imply that HP could have focused their efforts (and designs) on markets that Apple is never going to go after.

If you're doing a custom restaurant menu system, you need a sturdy tablet that can take abuse, be dropped, and so on. Think iPad "Toughbook."

And since it's also basically a custom terminal running custom software, the fact that Apple has 100 zillion apps is meaningless. It does what it does and that's it. Same for cash register systems, or medical tablets (that can also be easily cleaned and sterilized).

The key to competing with Apple lies in being where they are not...
post #21 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahmlco View Post

I did, however, imply that HP could have focused their efforts (and designs) on markets that Apple is never going to go after.

But they didn't. And now they're dead.

Quote:
If you're doing a custom restaurant menu system, you need a sturdy tablet that can take abuse, be dropped, and so on. Think iPad "Toughbook."

That's what the Microsoft Surface is for. Why waste time on menus when you can make the table itself the menu? And play with digital bubbles coming off your drink!

Quote:
It does what it does and that's it.

Single-purpose machines went out of vogue at the turn of the LAST decade.

Quote:
The key to competing with Apple lies in being where they are not...

But this is absolutely true. You either become Apple or you become IBM. Oops! IBM's already where IBM is. So long, cash register market!
post #22 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by Corporate View Post

I think this firm said Apple will have a 42% share not because they think the iPad will take a backseat to any other competitor, but to illustrate what happened with the iPhone. The iPhone is the most profitable and most bought phone in the world, but it only has about a 28% share give or take some. The reason is that the other 72% is being filled by a bunch of other companies. So while the iPad will probably be the best and most bought in 2015, there will most likely be a lot more competitors with better tablets etc. It is a reasonable assumption by them, but of course no one will know until that day comes.

It's a completely different type of market due to the carrier associations with various HW and expected subsidies. The tablet market is more akin to the PMP market. If the competition doesn't have a viable competitor by the time Apple releases the iPad with a HiDPI display then I say Apple's chances of dominating the tablet market the way they dominated the PMP market near 100%.
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post #23 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

But they didn't. And now they're dead.

Try reading for comprehension. I said, "could have".

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

That's what the Microsoft Surface is for.

Let's see... a $500 device that can be taken from table to table and easily replaced... or replace every table in the restaurant at $7,500 a crack... hmmm.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Single-purpose machines went out of vogue at the turn of the LAST decade.

Actually, you have a set of general purpose machines modified and/or customized to take on specific tasks.
post #24 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

That also means IHS has increased Apple's expected share of the market this year from 64 to 74 percent, and its expected share in 2015 from 32 to 43.6 percent of all tablets.

"IHS now believes Apple will account for the majority of tablet shipments through the year 2013, one year longer than the previous outlook," the firm stated. It did not articulate reasons why Apple's share of the tablet market is expected to shrink.

Apple's majority share among iPod competitors never eroded significantly, the company's majority position in iTunes digital media hasn't been overtaken, its sales of Apps haven't met any challenge from alternative smartphone software stores, and the company is now unmatched among so called "ultrabook" competitors with the MacBook Air, with no signs pointing to an eventual loss of that market either.

What a joke, this is a 'prediction'? I bet in 1991 they would have predicted that Microsoft's share of PC operating systems was about to drop to 40% too.

Thanks AI for pointing out the complete lack of rationale or logic for saying Apple's tablet share will be cut in half within the next few years. I'm not an Apple acolyte, but the fact is the iPad is the *only* tablet that most people want, and with it being adopted wholesale by businesses left and right (see stories on United's 11,000 iPad order, and the NFL, just in the last 2 days) there's not even a glimmer of a shred of a hope that any tablet currently in existence or reasonably forecast to be on the market in the next year+ is going to even come close to displacing the iPad.

What a crock.
post #25 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahmlco View Post

...

The key to competing with Apple lies in being where they are not...

Amen! You can say that again and again and again...
post #26 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


That's what the Microsoft Surface is for. Why waste time on menus when you can make the table itself the menu? And play with digital bubbles coming off your drink!

I do believe he was talking unique hardware design. He did mention that these devices types use custom business apps.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


Single-purpose machines went out of vogue at the turn of the LAST decade.

Maybe as personal computing a.k.a. consumer PCs are concerned, but business and many educational devices are alive and doing well, as we speak!
post #27 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahmlco View Post

I never said anything about overtaking Apple.

I did, however, imply that HP could have focused their efforts (and designs) on markets that Apple is never going to go after.

If you're doing a custom restaurant menu system, you need a sturdy tablet that can take abuse, be dropped, and so on. Think iPad "Toughbook."

And since it's also basically a custom terminal running custom software, the fact that Apple has 100 zillion apps is meaningless. It does what it does and that's it. Same for cash register systems, or medical tablets (that can also be easily cleaned and sterilized).

The key to competing with Apple lies in being where they are not...

I've seen iPads in what seem to be convenient and durable casing at a couple of local restaurants here - used by waitstaff to take orders, and the hosts to track tables. And you do realize that all of the Fortune 50 (and well beyond that I'm sure) have a custom, roped off, corporate-centric "App Store" they can call their own in which to develop completely customized apps for iOS - wholly aside from the "100 zillion apps" that the public sees in the regular App Store.

There's even a "kitchen case" out there now that props up the iPad and allows you to run it under running water to clean off when it get splashed while cooking.

You are moving too slow - where you anticipate the iPad isn't - it is. Most of the medical operations around here have deployed significant numbers of iPads according to my local Apple Store business team and the developers I talk to. It is cheaper by far than many of the specialized data entry systems specialized for a given segment, be it food service or medical use.
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post #28 of 29
If the news from the NYPost is accurate, Amazon might make more than a fair impact in the tablet market. Reports say that Amazon's soon-to-release Android tablet will retail for "hundreds less than the iPad", garnering guesses at a $299 entry level model. That would hit the sweet spot for a whole lot of casual users IMHO.

We'll all know soon enough, but if that pricing is accurate it's a heck of a surprise.
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/busines...9cl8amKOPBSDII
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post #29 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

If the news from the NYPost is accurate, Amazon might make more than a fair impact in the tablet market. Reports say that Amazon's soon-to-release Android tablet will retail for "hundreds less than the iPad", garnering guesses at a $299 entry level model. That would hit the sweet spot for a whole lot of casual users IMHO.

We'll all know soon enough, but if that pricing is accurate it's a heck of a surprise.
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/busines...9cl8amKOPBSDII

That seems low for a quality product that isn't a loss-leader but they need to get it out before the iPad 3 with Retina Display or even Amazon with their decent ecosystem may not be able to combat Apple's hold on the iPad ahem, I mean tablet market.
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