Maybe, but meanwhile, all these forks are counted as 'Android' to prove how 'Android' is taking over the world in market share.
Fact of the matter is that Android is starting to move from a stable, well-defined phone-OS to a toolbox for phone manufacturers to pick and choose whatever they need. This is great for them, but there is simply no denying that for developers and users, it will create frustrating incompatibilities and limit app selection.
We've been there before, just about 5 years ago, if you remember. The only people installing 'apps' back then were geeks and professionals, and it took a lot of figuring out which phone could do what, which apps would work on said phone, where to get said apps, how to get them, how to pay for them, how to get support, how to get updates. I don't think I have to tell you what happened that changed all of this, and made smartphones and apps a commodity that everyone could use and enjoy without having to think about hardware, OS's, app stores, payment options, and other things that you get for free if you allow spinning off multiple versions of the same platform. Collective memory appears to be pretty short, especially among Android fans
As an aside: I always have to laugh when people point to Windows, Linux or OS X as 'proof' that fragmentation is not an issue, I mean, just look at all these different OS's, screen sizes, hardware specs etc, right? As if it's still not clear that most people actually hate using computers, and as if one of OS X's strengths isn't that it provides a uniform and easy experience on all supported hardware.
If my collective memory is short, then so is yours. We don't live in the world of 5 years ago.
The reason only geeks installed apps 5 years ago was because the only other people using smartphones needed them for work, usually just for email and to them it was just a WORK TOOL.
One of the things that's happened since then is the iPhone, maybe you heard of it? See, the thing about the iPhone WASN'T that it just redefined the smartphone, which it did. The thing about it is it redefined the MARKET for the smartphone. Suddenly people who weren't "Geeks" wanted to put stuff on their devices, or use their phone to get their email. This new market will NOT go away just because a few companies decide to Fork android, specifically because these companies DO NOT market these forks AS android.
The other thing that happened in the past 5 years is that being a "geek" started becoming cool again. People are on computers more than they ever were, and they're using apps like Twitter, Foursquare, Facebook, Google+, etc. to keep in contact with eachother, and meet strangers, more than they ever have. The internet isn't some "big scary" place anymore, it's a community for a lot of people, and embracing that community and the "geekiness" of it is being celebrated.
Being a Geek is mainstream, or close enough to it that it no longer is a fringe.
We won't revert to 5 years ago because we can't. Yes, there are android markets springing up all over the place. But do you want to know the NUMBER ONE reason devs are putting apps in different markets? It's to reach countries that don't have paid access in the Android market yet (and that number is quickly shinking). Amazon has it's own app store, yes. but devs hate it. Maybe they won't when they get the Kindle tablet running, but even then it's not that big of a deal.
And Baidu? Baidu will have a chinese government curated market. That's the only way it will get approved. Most app developers have no interest in that anyway. And the ones that do have a huge potential market to access, so the fork WILL BE WORTH IT.
And let me ask you what's worse: Coding a new app FROM SCRATCH because Baidu decided to write their own OS instead, or modifying existing code from your android app so it works with their fork?
If android Couldn't fork we'd have a greater number of incompatible operating systems, not just "fragmented" ones. Or are you blind enough to assume that all of these companies "forking" android would just be content not making their own ecosystems and paying to be part of iOS instead?