Yes, the "news" says plenty about the Republicans waging a War on Women™ and Offending the Poor®. That's because your news sources are incredibly biased. You'll notice that Jimmac's News Hour also doesn't mention real unemployment, crushing debts, record deficits, insulting the PM of Israel, promising Russia we'll give away the farm after the election, past racist, terrorist and anti-American associations (Ayers, Wright, Bell), slow economic growth, a continually declining housing market, DECLINING oil production on federal lands, a 50% reduction in federal oil leases and Obamacare costing twice as much as we were told.
What was the name of that thread you started during the last election? Something about the Democrats melting down?
That thread was started on 9/14/2008...approximately...wait for it....6 weeks
before the election. At the time, polling showed McCain ahead. Palin had not yet been politically assassinated by the media. The financial crisis hit two days later. When that thread was started, the polls showed a 9 point swing in McCain's direction...from +5 Obama to +3-4 McCain. Shortly thereafter, the economic/financial crisis happened, Palin was targeted mercilessly and McCain made a series of missteps (flying off to "save the day" with the bailout bill, for example). The polls soon changed dramatically, and so did my thoughts on who would win the election.
However you are really great at denial. I'll give you that.
"Denial" to you is anyone who disagrees with your unsupported opinions. My predictions on this and any election are based on...again....current data
and historical data/precedent.
1. Current polling data shows Obama leading by about the margin of error. The most recent Rasmussen tracking poll shows Obama's lead down to 2, or half the margin.
Keep in mind this is a national poll and is during the most negative part of the GOP's primary.
2. Obama's approval index is -17
. That means that 17 percent more people strongly disapprove than strongly approve.
3. Unemployment is 8.2%, officially. No President in the last 100 years has been reelected with unemployment over 7.2% other than Ronald Reagan. At the time, unemployment was coming down rapidly. Unemployment is still higher than when Obama took office.
unemployment (accounting for those who have stopped looking) is near 11%. If we add in underemployed persons, the rate is approximately 17%.
Not exactly a good number for reelection, agreed?
5. Economic growth is about 2%. Previous recoveries have seen 4-5% growth during the rebound. Also, here is an article explaining how economic growth and unemployment affect an incumbent President's chances. Hint: Low growth during their term means they lose.
6. Gas prices, gas prices, gas prices. According to this article, the last 5 gas spikes correlated with the incumbent party losing the Presidential election.
Now, there is plenty of other data on economic performance, national security, state polls, the enthusiasm gap, etc. But let's just stop here for a second. All of the above shows Obama is highly unlikely to be reelected without a sea change in the political and economic environment. I invite you to post data that supports your prediction of an Obama victory "unless something big happens."