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Apple forecast to sell 143M iPhones, 68M iPads in 2013

post #1 of 32
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Investment firm Piper Jaffray on Wednesday released their calendar year 2013 estimates for Apple, forecasting $164 billion in revenue with earnings per share of $40.50 on sales of well over 200 million iOS devices.

Analyst Gene Munster's estimates are 8 percent ahead of Wall Street's 2013 expectations for revenue, and 10 percent higher than the Street's earnings per share forecast. Munster sees Apple's revenue growing 19 percent in calendar year 2012 and another 17 percent in 2013.

He also sees Apple's cash hoard continuing to grow over the next few years, reaching $140 per share at the end of 2013, compared to $81 per share in June 2011.

Apple's growth will continue to be propelled by the iPhone, in Piper Jaffray's estimates, representing 49 percent of revenue in calendar 2013. Their model has iPhone growth go from 30 percent in calendar 2012 to 29 percent in 2013, while average selling price will drop from $603 in 2012 to $565 in 2013.

"One key topic on which we are different than consensus thinking is our belief that the iPhone unit growth can continue in the 30% range while ASP's will be more than double the smartphone industry average," Munster wrote.

"In other words, we do not believe Apple needs an ultra low end offering to grow iPhone units at 30%. If Apple was to announce an unsubsidized, sub-$200 iPhone, our unit estimates would be too low and ASPs would be too hight."

Rumors of a new, contract-free entry-level iPhone have persisted for years, particularly on Wall Street where investors believe such a move would be a key growth driver for Apple. Even this year, rumors have cropped up, suggesting Apple is working on a new low-end model to fight off cheap Android handsets.



As for the iPad, Munster sees the touchscreen tablet representing 21 percent of Apple's revenue in calendar year 2013, with sales of 68 million units. He sees iPad unit sales growing 39 percent in 2012 and 35 percent in 2013, while the average selling price will drop from $575 to $555.

And for the Mac platform, Munster has forecast it to earn 16 percent of Apple's revenue in 2013 with sales of 23 million Macs that year. Average selling prices will drop from $1,257 in 2012 to $1,175 in 2013, while growth rate will shrink from 17 percent to 15 percent in the next two years, based on Piper Jaffray's models.

The firm has reiterated its overweight rating on shares of AAPL, and sees the company remaining a "top pick" for investors through 2013. Piper Jaffray's 12-month price target for the stock is $607.
post #2 of 32
i think the estimate for 2011 are low for the iphone, i think 100 million for 2011
the estimates have always been short, anal-lists usually poo poo apple growth
i see apple surpassing nokia this year for total smartphones.
i think the interest in the iphone 5 is massive, and china, well kapow!!!
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post #3 of 32
thanks pied piper. how many hovercars will they sell in 2013?
post #4 of 32
So Apple is having to buy about 230,000,000 (including iPod Touch) of many of the same components in order to serve a single year of sales. Who else is dealing with that scale?


Quote:
Originally Posted by desarc View Post

thanks pied piper. how many hovercars will they sell in 2013?

Judging by recent trends there will be no hover car market until Apple creates it.
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post #5 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by desarc View Post

thanks pied piper. how many hovercars will they sell in 2013?

According to Wiki, a hovercar is a transport vehicle only appearing in works of fiction.

Now, I don't want to alarm you, but, Santa Claus is also not real... along with the Easter Bunny and Leprechauns.

The iPhone, on the other hand, is very real and in use by millions of people today.

Just want to keep you up to date...
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post #6 of 32
Currently, Apple's share price is so far from some of these analyst estimates as to be almost implausible. Despite Apple having the potential to pull in huge amounts of revenue it seems to be struggling just to get back to over $400 a share. Maybe the release of iPhone 5 will give the stock some forward momentum. I'm anxiously waiting for Horace Dediu of asymco to find out whether Apple is being punished for growth by WS. I hope to get some solid answers as to why Apple's P/E keeps shrinking despite its revenue arsenal while Amazon's P/E continues to expand.
post #7 of 32
Gene Munster is one of the analysts with the worst track records predicting Apple. Heck, he can't even nail the two most important indicators: EPS and revenue.

If Munster, Wu, Huberty say Apple's going to do something, chances are they will do something considerably different. None of them are star-rated analysts (per the Starmine rankings).

Of course, the tech blogs never seem to be willing to point this shortcoming out.

Anything that begins with "Gene Munster...", "Shaw Wu...", or "Kathryn Huberty..." can be tossed into the rubbish bin. They are blind and only post drivel.
post #8 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

Gene Munster is one of the analysts with the worst track records predicting Apple. Heck, he can't even nail the two most important indicators: EPS and revenue.

If Munster, Wu, Huberty say Apple's going to do something, chances are they will do something considerably different. None of them are star-rated analysts (per the Starmine rankings).

Of course, the tech blogs never seem to be willing to point this shortcoming out.

Anything that begins with "Gene Munster...", "Shaw Wu...", or "Kathryn Huberty..." can be tossed into the rubbish bin. They are blind and only post drivel.

Your are right on. Even here, he is downplaying apple growth. Just look at the recent quarters. A 10 percent rise in iPhone sales, has increased EPS by $1.39. Munster predicts a rise by 100 percent, and eps estimates are raised by a mere $2.20. Baloney. Of course he brings down ASPs, yet there is no historical evidence that iPhone ASPs will go down.
post #9 of 32
Quote:
143m iphones, 68m ipads

*boggle*

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post #10 of 32
Look like the alleged infringement case with Samsung isnt hurting Apple's sales.

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Advantage Samsung

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"Like I said before, share price will dip into the $400."  - 11/21/12 by Galbi

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post #11 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Judging by recent trends there will be no hover car market until Apple creates it.

Hovercar... Gravity... Falling Apple... Newton... That name comes up again!
post #12 of 32
[QUOTE=solipsism;1936925]So Apple is having to buy about 230,000,000 (including iPod Touch) of many of the same components in order to serve a single year of sales. Who else is dealing with that scale?




Judging by recent trends there will be no hover car market until Apple creates it.[/QUOTE]

The iHover coming summer of 2030....Apple starts another trend and dominates the market space.

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post #13 of 32
[QUOTE=Constable Odo;1936950]Currently, Apple's share price is so far from some of these analyst estimates as to be almost implausible. Despite Apple having the potential to pull in huge amounts of revenue it seems to be struggling just to get back to over $400 a share."

Maybe I am missing something? Look at earnings alone and this is way short. This another forecast that is literally one year beyond what will actually happen the year before he is forecasting. They will make $40 in 2012. Each year, the analysts pretty much predict two years in advance of the current fiscal year ending - which turns out to happen in the following fiscal year and not two years away (2013) . Apple will earn close to or over $30 this year in September fiscal (and for calendar 2011 more). They will reach $40 in 2012 fiscal year by growing 33% and easily $49 in calendar 2012. It will not take them two fiscal years to make $10 more than they are making this year.

He is missing 2012 in his calculations - he is missing an entire year of earnings.
post #14 of 32
April 2nd 2020 - The largest corporation in the world today with a cash hoard of $523 Billion today announced record profits of $500 per share. The new line of Apple hover cars is predicted to sell in excess of 580M next calendar year. Representing another 38% increase year over year. GM recently filed for bankruptcy after years of mismangement and lack of innovative new cars. Their line of chevy trucks is still selling well in Turkey! Appl meanwhile rumors say is about to relase a new telepathic interface which will revolutionize the touch interface in iOS 12. Microsoft still langishing at $24 is being sued by Apple for copying their iHover designs patents. Steve jobs is rumored to be on life support at Stanford medical Center is causing the share price to remain stagnant at 1650-1700 range with an earnings per share of 0.34 Apple is said to be using their telepathic inteface with Jobs to vet all new products at Apple. Government investigators are finishing up their investigation into share manipulation of APPL by market makers and Bank of America. IRS is considering taxing Apple an extra 1.5% to close deficit gap and finance Medicare and Social Security payments. Apple is now the 4th largest country in the world ahead now of California. Another 9th circular building is scheduled to complete in 2023 to house anther 25000 employees, another 5 are planned . The 9 buildings can now be seen from space. The Cool Aid zone is now encompassing the entire west coast. Jobs is planning to build 100 more buildings from LA to Washington by 2030 to fulfill expansion needs. The SF Bay Area Transport agency is ordering another 50M iHover cars and the last remnant of the Bay Area Freeway system is due for demolition in 2025.

Originally by Rickers - 2014 : Cook & will bury Apple.  They can only ride Steve's ghost so long.



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Originally by Rickers - 2014 : Cook & will bury Apple.  They can only ride Steve's ghost so long.



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post #15 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

According to Wiki, a hovercar is a transport vehicle only appearing in works of fiction.

Now, I don't want to alarm you, but, Santa Claus is also not real... along with the Easter Bunny and Leprechauns.

The iPhone, on the other hand, is very real and in use by millions of people today.

Just want to keep you up to date...

analysts estimates [especially those with vested interested in a company] for final sales figures 27 months out are no more real than Stanta Claus. that's my point.
post #16 of 32
Unless he, and Wall Street are expecting a severe double dip recession. That would do it. Apple's sales moved 10% in 2009. Otherwise, it seems so odd that sales and profit growth would almost hit a wall, a wall for Apple, that is. Even so, his estimates are twice Wall Streets'.

I have found, over the years, that his estimates of what Apple's stock will be doing is the most accurate. While others have doubted, he's always had the best concept of Apple's value.
post #17 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul94544 View Post

April 2nd 2020 - The largest corporation in the world today with a cash hoard of $523 Billion today announced record profits of $500 per share. The new line of Apple hover cars is predicted to sell in excess of 580M next calendar year. Representing another 38% increase year over year. GM recently filed for bankruptcy after years of mismangement and lack of innovative new cars. Their line of chevy trucks is still selling well in Turkey! Appl meanwhile rumors say is about to relase a new telepathic interface which will revolutionize the touch interface in iOS 12. Microsoft still langishing at $24 is being sued by Apple for copying their iHover designs patents. Steve jobs is rumored to be on life support at Stanford medical Center is causing the share price to remain stagnant at 650-700 range with an earnings per share of 1.23 Apple is said to be using their telepathic inteface with Jobs to vet all new products at Apple. Government investigators are finishing up their investigation into share manipulation of APPL by market makers and Bank of America. IRS is considering taxing Apple an extra 1.5% to close deficit gap and finance Medicare and Social Security payments. Apple is now the 4th largest country in the world ahead now of California. Another 9th circular building is scheduled to complete in 2023 to house anther 25000 employees, another 5 are planned . The 9 buildings can now be seen from space. The Cool Aid zone is now encompassing the entire west coast. Jobs is planning to build 100 more buildings from LA to Washington by 2030 to fulfill expansion needs. The SF Bay Area Transport agency is ordering another 50M iHover cars and the last remnant of the Bay Area Freeway system is due for demolition in 2025.

WOW...
That was well thought out!
post #18 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by desarc View Post

analysts estimates [especially those with vested interested in a company] for final sales figures 27 months out are no more real than Stanta Claus. that's my point.

My point being that you can at least estimate and project a quantity for a real tangible object... rather difficult to do with hovercars.

To the point... you are more or less saying that the iPhone market will be the same as hovercars... which is zero.
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post #19 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

Currently, Apple's share price is so far from some of these analyst estimates as to be almost implausible. Despite Apple having the potential to pull in huge amounts of revenue it seems to be struggling just to get back to over $400 a share. Maybe the release of iPhone 5 will give the stock some forward momentum. I'm anxiously waiting for Horace Dediu of asymco to find out whether Apple is being punished for growth by WS. I hope to get some solid answers as to why Apple's P/E keeps shrinking despite its revenue arsenal while Amazon's P/E continues to expand.

Apple is affected by the overall stock market. Apple rose heavily in the pre/post-earnings release, until it reached its peak ($404.50 on 26 July). Since then it has roughly paralleled the Dow and NASDAQ on a daily basis, and this includes the recent downturn.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=6m&s=^DJI&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=aapl

Personally, I expect that this will be another blowout quarter, and Apple will blow past the $400 mark. And if we ever get any half-way decent economic news, it will rise strongly.

Re: "Currently, Apple's share price is so far from some of these analyst estimates as to be almost implausible."

Sooner or later, the price will catch up with the earnings. The market can ignore it only for so long. The combination of a fearful market, a poor economy (Thank you Mr Bush) and the fear of the "large-number effect" are currently holding the price down. This continual "Apple growth will slow to 10% the year after next" holds prices down until it is proven wrong.
post #20 of 32
I wonder if these estimates are intentionally lowballed. I'll bet apple sells about 100 million iPads in 2012. Maybe 150 million in 2013.

He's probably more in the right ballpark for iPhones, but it still feels a tad low.
post #21 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

Anything that begins with "Gene Munster...", "Shaw Wu...", or "Kathryn Huberty..." can be tossed into the rubbish bin. They are blind and only post drivel.

Unless you are Apple Insider desperately looking for eyeballs.
post #22 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Their model has iPhone growth go from 30 percent

estimates would be too low and ASPs would be too hight."

Should be "going"

When an error in an original quote is reproduced, use [sic] but with AI it could well be a transposing error.
post #23 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

My point being that you can at least estimate and project a quantity for a real tangible object... rather difficult to do with hovercars.

To the point... you are more or less saying that the iPhone market will be the same as hovercars... which is zero.

"you are more or less saying" means you are taking my words and changing the meaning.

to the REAL point: projecting sales for an existing cell phone and tablet product line that far into the future would have a margin of error so large that it becomes a guessing game, also known as making things up. that's where the hover car comment came from.

here's a concrete example: what were the analysts projections in late 2006 for the sales figures of the palm treo 27 months into the future? before an unheard of product [iPhone] was announced?

here's another: what were the sales estimates for the iPod in late 2006, BEFORE the iPhone came out and cannibalized those sales? if rumors of a hybrid OSX/iOS touchscreen MacBook come to fruition in any way, shape or form, it will eat away at the iPad sales. if 3G connectivity is added to more devices with facetime and voip, it will eat away at iPhone sales.

here's one more: what if a global double dip recession hits extremely hard - what will that do to piper's estimates? they're made up, major factor of error long range estimates and there are just too many variables to put any faith into them. i'm optimistic and i HOPE it happens, but my mathematical mind won't accept estimates with major margins of error as anything other than a guess at what the future will bring. ooo, hovercars!
post #24 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post

I wonder if these estimates are intentionally lowballed. I'll bet apple sells about 100 million iPads in 2012. Maybe 150 million in 2013.

He's probably more in the right ballpark for iPhones, but it still feels a tad low.

In a sense, yes. Analysts admit that they have to be conservative. Their customers (who we aren't) would prefer that to their going overboard. Financial people are always conservative. The few who are not often get in trouble.
post #25 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by desarc View Post

"you are more or less saying" means you are taking my words and changing the meaning.

to the REAL point: projecting sales for an existing cell phone and tablet product line that far into the future would have a margin of error so large that it becomes a guessing game, also known as making things up. that's where the hover car comment came from.

here's a concrete example: what were the analysts projections in late 2006 for the sales figures of the palm treo 27 months into the future? before an unheard of product [iPhone] was announced?

here's another: what were the sales estimates for the iPod in late 2006, BEFORE the iPhone came out and cannibalized those sales? if rumors of a hybrid OSX/iOS touchscreen MacBook come to fruition in any way, shape or form, it will eat away at the iPad sales. if 3G connectivity is added to more devices with facetime and voip, it will eat away at iPhone sales.

here's one more: what if a global double dip recession hits extremely hard - what will that do to piper's estimates? they're made up, major factor of error long range estimates and there are just too many variables to put any faith into them. i'm optimistic and i HOPE it happens, but my mathematical mind won't accept estimates with major margins of error as anything other than a guess at what the future will bring. ooo, hovercars!

It's a fucking estimate. Are we all supposed to stop doing everything because the world might end tomorrow. Sure, anything can happen... but if you're in the investment game then you have to estimate, with the highest probability, what may happen in the future. Whether or not these estimates are accurate may be up for debate but the fact that analysts have to do their best to predict the future is a fact of life and therefore not up for debate.

Since you're giving examples I thought I'd give you one:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...7K72WF20110907

Suggestion... You might as well quit breathing... apparently the world may stop at any moment so what's the use of carrying on.

[on edit: Here's a prediction... iPhone sales for year 2014... over 100 million / production of hovercars... less than 10]
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post #26 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

It's a fucking estimate. Are we all supposed to stop doing everything because the world might end tomorrow. Sure, anything can happen... but if you're in the investment game then you have to estimate, with the highest probability, what may happen in the future. Whether or not these estimates are accurate may be up for debate but the fact that analysts have to do their best to predict the future is a fact of life and therefore not up for debate.

Since you're giving examples I thought I'd give you one:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...7K72WF20110907

Suggestion... You might as well quit breathing... apparently the world may stop at any moment so what's the use of carrying on.

[on edit: Here's a prediction... iPhone sales for year 2014... over 100 million / production of hovercars... less than 10]

And Gene Muster has proven to be an estimator that is not very good. So why do we keep parroting his estimates?
post #27 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jacksons View Post

And Gene Muster has proven to be an estimator that is not very good. So why do we keep parroting his estimates?

... and what the fuck does that have to do with what I'm saying?
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post #28 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

In a sense, yes. Analysts admit that they have to be conservative. Their customers (who we aren't) would prefer that to their going overboard. Financial people are always conservative. The few who are not often get in trouble.

It's really not at all clear to me who their customers are or how these public statements benefit those customers.

if their customers are wealthy and/or sophisticated investors, then their customers would want *accurate* information, not consistently optimistic or pessimistic information. That's because using short-selling or options, more sophisticated customers can play both ups and downs and should be agnostic between the two.

But of course, if their customers are wealthy/sophisticated investors, then presumably the analysts would not share with the world their accurate predictions, because they would want to charge their customers for that info. Does that means that there is the publicly released analyst predictions and then some private "real" info that they share with their paying customers?

Or, do analysts only release their predictions for high-profile companies like Apple, as a sort of advertisement for their abilities? And if that's the case, then again, wouldn't their goal be *accuracy* ? Wouldn't being consistently wrong, regardless of direction, be something they'd want to avoid?

It would be great if somebody who actually knows what they're talking about (aka, not me) were to weigh in here.
post #29 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post

But of course, if their customers are wealthy/sophisticated investors, then presumably the analysts would not share with the world their accurate predictions, because they would want to charge their customers for that info. Does that means that there is the publicly released analyst predictions and then some private "real" info that they share with their paying customers?

Or, do analysts only release their predictions for high-profile companies like Apple, as a sort of advertisement for their abilities? And if that's the case, then again, wouldn't their goal be *accuracy* ? Wouldn't being consistently wrong, regardless of direction, be something they'd want to avoid?

It would be great if somebody who actually knows what they're talking about (aka, not me) were to weigh in here.

If you want all of the info that an investment house has gathered on a company then, yes, you have to pay for the research paper... unless you are one of their high profile customers (ie. high $$$ client) and then, more often than not you get the paper for free... especially if they are trying to get you to invest in that company.

My question: Are these analysts always wrong with their public info or does it just seem that way because of the limited amount of info available to you (ie. conveniently placed in an article of interest to you)?
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post #30 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

... and what the fuck does that have to do with what I'm saying?

That you would be better off making your argument when a respectable analyst makes a prediction rather than when Gene Muster makes one of his usual science fiction predictions.
post #31 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jacksons View Post

That you would be better off making your argument when a respectable analyst makes a prediction rather than when Gene Muster makes one of his usual science fiction predictions.

As I thought... what you said means nothing.

Try reading what I actually said rather than just making things up.
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post #32 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post

It's really not at all clear to me who their customers are or how these public statements benefit those customers.

if their customers are wealthy and/or sophisticated investors, then their customers would want *accurate* information, not consistently optimistic or pessimistic information. That's because using short-selling or options, more sophisticated customers can play both ups and downs and should be agnostic between the two.

But of course, if their customers are wealthy/sophisticated investors, then presumably the analysts would not share with the world their accurate predictions, because they would want to charge their customers for that info. Does that means that there is the publicly released analyst predictions and then some private "real" info that they share with their paying customers?

Or, do analysts only release their predictions for high-profile companies like Apple, as a sort of advertisement for their abilities? And if that's the case, then again, wouldn't their goal be *accuracy* ? Wouldn't being consistently wrong, regardless of direction, be something they'd want to avoid?

It would be great if somebody who actually knows what they're talking about (aka, not me) were to weigh in here.

There is no such thing as accurate information on what is an inherently closed process. The best that can be done is to attempt to estimate results, and update them throughout the quarter. But the business that use this data would, despite what you think, rather have conservative date than data that overestimates. Hard for you to believe, but true.

And one reason you can tell I'm right about this is that all of the companies that we see these analysts working for are making money selling these reports to corporations. If they didn't consider the data and advisements to be of value, these companies wouldn't exist.

In addition, all we see it the small amount of data they release to the public. It's the least of what their reports contain, and the least of interest to those who buy the reports. That's why they can release it.
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