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JP Morgan increases 2011 tablet forecast to 51.9M as iPad dominates

post #1 of 17
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Investment bank J.P. Morgan raised its estimates for tablet shipments in 2011 to 51.9 million units, citing the strength of Apple's iPad, while slightly lowering 2012 estimates because a "formidable number two tablet maker" has yet to arrive.

Analyst Mark Moskowitz issued a note to clients on Thursday, noting that Apple "continues to dominate and enjoy the lion's share of the tablet market." He also suggested that a true iPad competitor may not emerge until the arrival of Windows 8 late next year.

The firm raised its 2011 tablet projection from 46.1 million to 51.9 million units, while also reducing 2012 numbers from 76.3 million to 72.4 million. Moskowitz now estimates Apple's unit market share will stand at 70.9 percent at the end of this year and 62.8 percent in 2012. He predicts worldwide tablet revenues will reach $28.9 billion dollars this year.

"Beyond the iPad, there has not been another high-volume tablet offering, yet," he said. "We are still awaiting the emergence of a clear number two player, though this may not happen until the launch of Windows 8 in 2H 2012."

Moskowitz did note that a rumored Amazon tablet could be "interesting," possibly providing a lift to the non-Apple tablet market. He went on to say that the OS would likely be a weak spot for the device, though "brand name, content and distribution capabilities of Amazon" could threaten Apple's lock on the market.

Non-iPad tablet challengers will find themselves competing on price for second place, Moskowitz suggested, predicting that the Average Selling Price in the tablet market will decline 12.1 percent in 2011 and an additional 7.2 percent in 2012. Tablet makers have been aggressively slashing prices in order to move excess inventory, with Hewlett-Packard enacting the most dramatic price cut with a $99 fire sale for its discontinued TouchPad tablet.



Earlier this year, Moskowitz warned of a coming "bubble burst" for rival tablet makers because their build plans were too high. An "early dose of reality" reportedly prompted companies to dial down production of .

However, tablet makers are expected to continue waging a fierce price war this fall in preparation for the 2011 holiday season in order "to digest inventory and minimize losses," according to one report.

The analyst also cautioned that a continued surge in tablet sales is "bad news" for PCs. J.P. Morgan believes that tablets and smartphones are not only cannibalizing PC sales, but also causing consumers to defer purchases.

Apple sold 4.69 million iPads in the first quarter of calendar 2011 and 9.25 million in the second, for a total of 13.94 million tablets.
post #2 of 17
So do we pay any attention to these analysts or not?
post #3 of 17
Quote:
Originally Posted by Firefly7475 View Post

So do we pay any attention to these analysts or not?

Many people do. They are investors not apple-ophiles. So his is just information on what people are saying.

It is also a reference point. If these guys are usually off by 10% then you know what to add.
post #4 of 17
Quote:
Apple sold 4.69 million iPads in the first quarter of calendar 2011 and 9.25 million in the second, for a total of 13.94 million tablets.

We could note that it was not until the very end of the last quarter that Apple got production up so that supply was meeting demand. My guess is that sales for this quarter will be around 12M or higher.
post #5 of 17
It was announced today that Apple APL will be working with the department of the Treasury in paying off some of the countries debt. I has been said that Steve Jobs was quoted as saying "when pigs fly". President Obama said "where?" "They can actually fly?".
An Apple man since 1977
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An Apple man since 1977
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post #6 of 17
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmmx View Post

We could note that it was not until the very end of the last quarter that Apple got production up so that supply was meeting demand. My guess is that sales for this quarter will be around 12M or higher.

If iPad sales are going to be over 50 million for 2011 (and everyone says that the analysts predictions are always low) and less than 14 million have been sold through the first two quarters the last two quarters will need to see average sales of nearly 20 million each. That seems like pretty astounding growth, though I would love to see it happen.

After the initial miniscule release of iPad's here in the Czech Republic in April there were none available at the retail level again until mid-August. I'm finally starting to see a noticeable amount of people using them on public transportation, mall food courts, etc. For the record, though the original Galaxy Tab was sold by all the mobile phone companies for close to a year I've never actually seen one in the wild here.
post #7 of 17
Quote:
Originally Posted by GregInPrague View Post

If iPad sales are going to be over 50 million for 2011

That's over 51.9 million tablets, not iPads. Though I admit it is easy to misread. At 70% share of tablets "shipped", that would be over 36 million iPads. Having sold 14 million already, that means they will sell 22 million in the second half of the year, which sounds about right.

Of course, all of the iPads shipped will be sold very quickly, whereas the same may not be true of other tablets, so the iPad's share of the "tablets shipped" market (as a percentage) is definitely not as high as its share of the "tablets actually sold to consumers" market, but still much higher than its share of the "OMG FML someone please take these tablets off our hands, we will pay you" market.
post #8 of 17
Quote:
Originally Posted by jrob View Post

That's over 51.9 million tablets, not iPads. Though I admit it is easy to misread. At 70% share of tablets "shipped", that would be over 36 million iPads. Having sold 14 million already, that means they will sell 22 million in the second half of the year, which sounds about right.

Of course, all of the iPads shipped will be sold very quickly, whereas the same may not be true of other tablets, so the iPad's share of the "tablets shipped" market (as a percentage) is definitely not as high as its share of the "tablets actually sold to consumers" market, but still much higher than its share of the "OMG FML someone please take these tablets off our hands, we will pay you" market.

My mistake, it did come off looking like a projection of iPad sales.
post #9 of 17
51 million? That's a heck of a lot of devices. Wish I had more Apple stock
post #10 of 17
Quote:
Originally Posted by Firefly7475 View Post

So do we pay any attention to these analysts or not?

People think analysts can predict the future, but sadly, they can't. All analysts do is follow the underlying trend, then come up with reasons to add or take 20-25% to or from the current price as their target. They will use all manner of metrics and estimates to justify their reasoning. Most of the time they are right, or near enough, simply because they follow a trend. None of them wish to be seen to be breaking from their peers in their view, so often analysts targets will be in a similar ballpark. In the global game of "pump and dump", analysts will continue to raise their targets long after a stock has peaked. So, when targets are hit, they look like geniuses, but when things go sour, they point to the fact all their peers had the same view, then blame the apparent change in fortunes on unforeseen circumstances.

So, in short, by all means follow analysts, but when things go wrong, they aren't going to compensate you for following their views.
post #11 of 17
Quote:
Originally Posted by Firefly7475 View Post

So do we pay any attention to these analysts or not?

No.

How many times does it have to be said, number of tablets shipped ≠ the number sold.

Apple has 90% of the market now and will again next year, no matter how many 2nd rate tablets are shipped into the market and sit on shelvles only to sold later in $99 fire sales.
post #12 of 17
deleted
post #13 of 17
Quote:
Originally Posted by studentx View Post

No.

How ...Apple has 90% of the market now and will again next year, no matter how many 2nd rate tablets are shipped into the market and sit on shelvles only to sold later in $99 fire sales.

And we should always remember that market share means nothing if you do not make money from it. HP has a nice sell thru effort and gaining market share. And it only cost them 300 million $. Zero profit lots of loss.



Just a thought,
en
post #14 of 17
Quote:
Originally Posted by tylerk36 View Post

It was announced today that Apple APL will be working with the department of the Treasury in paying off some of the countries debt. I has been said that Steve Jobs was quoted as saying "when pigs fly". President Obama said "where?" "They can actually fly?".

That's about as funny as a truckload of dead babies on mother's day. Jerk.
post #15 of 17
Quote:
Originally Posted by Firefly7475 View Post

So do we pay any attention to these analysts or not?

I don't ... nor too many of these rumors.
post #16 of 17
Quote:
Originally Posted by jrob View Post

Of course, all of the iPads shipped will be sold very quickly, whereas the same may not be true of other tablets, so the iPad's share of the "tablets shipped" market (as a percentage) is definitely not as high as its share of the "tablets actually sold to consumers" market

From Google's own versions statistics we can estimate less than 2.4 mio Honeycomb devices were sold (1.4% of 165 mio activated Android devices).
Using Google's display statistics (1,5% "xlarge") still gives us only 2.5 mio devices.
post #17 of 17
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

An "early dose of reality" reportedly prompted companies to dial down production of .

All kinds of typos - Production of... nothing, then a period. Ironically, AI needs a dose of reality.
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