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'Unprecedented' demand for Apple's iPhone 5 exceeds iPhone 4 hype

post #1 of 109
Thread Starter 
A new survey has found "unprecedented" demand for Apple's next iPhone, with 31 percent of respondents indicating they are likely to buy the anticipated handset.

The results of the RBC/ChangeWave survey were released Tuesday by analyst Mike Abramsky. The poll of 2,200 respondents taken between Aug. 2 and 10 found that pre-launch demand for the so-called "iPhone 5" exceeds that of the iPhone 4, as a similar poll conducted in 2010 found 25 percent of respondents would buy Apple's fourth-generation smartphone.

In all, 13 percent of respondents said in August 2011 that they are "very likely" to buy a fifth-generation iPhone, while 18 percent said they are "somewhat likely." That's even better than the 12 percent who were "very likely" and 13 percent "somewhat likely" to purchase an iPhone 4 in June of 2010.

Abramsky also pointed out what he believes will be a "significant" upgrade cycle, as the iPhone 4 is nearly 15 months old. The poll found that 66 percent of existing iPhone users are very or somewhat likely to buy the iPhone 5, which indicates Apple could see a large number of upgraders.

The survey also found strong demand for the next iPhone at carriers Sprint and T-Mobile, where more than 50 percent of subscribers said they are either significantly or somewhat more likely to buy the iPhone if available. Last month, The Wall Street Journal reported that Sprint would offer the iPhone 5 alongside AT&T and Verizon in October.

Because of the survey's indication that iPhone 5 demand is high, Abramsky has raised his estimated fiscal 2012 iPhone sales to 110 million, up from 105 million. He sees Apple selling 27 million iPhones in the first quarter of fiscal 2012 alone.

The survey also asked respondents about the iPad, and the results show utter dominance for Apple, with 85 percent of all tablet buyers planning to buy the iPad. That's up from 82 percent in February.



The survey data also shows strong back-to-school buying for the iPad 2, as 26 percent of respondents said they are very or somewhat likely to buy Apple's second-generation tablet. Accordingly, Abramsky has also increased his iPad sales estimate for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2011 to 12.5 million.

RBC Capital Markets sees Apple earning $110 billion in revenue in fiscal 2011, growing to $140 billion in revenue the following year, and $167 billion by fiscal 2013. It has a $500 price target for AAPL stock.
post #2 of 109
A nice morning story to accompany my bowl of Cheerios. Go AAPL!!!
post #3 of 109
This is the type of survey where ones response can only be something like "No Sh*t Sherlock"!

There is a huge demand for the iPhone 5, just waiting on Apple to get their butts into gear and actually release it, the imminent release of the GM version of iOS pretty much confirms the October release date.

Now we just need Apple to arrange a little presentation.......
iPad, Macbook Pro, iPhone, heck I even have iLife! :-)
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iPad, Macbook Pro, iPhone, heck I even have iLife! :-)
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post #4 of 109
That's great. I'm in that boat too. Apple still needs to work to push that number farther north, including a renewed push to appeal to the younger crowds which are increasingly interested in Android devices - which are now considered the devices with the 'cool' factor.
post #5 of 109
When everyone is used to a yearly refresh, and then have to wait longer there will be a lot of pent up demand. I sure hope AAPL doesn't get used to all this hype and start waiting longer between refreshes.
post #6 of 109
Yeah. No surprise here. If nothing else just consider what a HUGE seller the iPhone 3GS was, and I'm sure that most of those iPhone owners, myself included, are definitely considering if not planning to buy the new iPhone 5. Add to that the comparative handful of people that will pay the early contract termination, plus the potentially huge number of Sprint customers and this should be a truly massive launch.
post #7 of 109
Quote:
Originally Posted by airnerd View Post

When everyone is used to a yearly refresh, and then have to wait longer there will be a lot of pent up demand. I sure hope AAPL doesn't get used to all this hype and start waiting longer between refreshes.

also more contracts become "available"
I APPLE THEREFORE I AM
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I APPLE THEREFORE I AM
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post #8 of 109
Quote:
Originally Posted by airnerd View Post

When everyone is used to a yearly refresh, and then have to wait longer there will be a lot of pent up demand. I sure hope AAPL doesn't get used to all this hype and start waiting longer between refreshes.

I doubt it. I really think this is going to be the oddity in the release cycle. I think that Apple was just sliding the iPhone release cycle to match up with the iPod release cycle/event. Someone else made the comment on another thread about the iPhone being the BIG deal which will help to boost interest in the iPod media event.
post #9 of 109
Quote:
Originally Posted by mytdave View Post

the younger crowds are increasingly interested in Android devices

That's a complete falsehood.



It's too early for this Do you seriously believe that HTC guy?

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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post #10 of 109
This can't be easy for AT&T... think of all those monthly contracts expiring (several months' worth now), and how much of an exodus there will be to Verizon, T-Mobile, and Sprint. This is the first opportunity that 3GS owners have to leave AT&T (and still be on the iPhone).
post #11 of 109
Quote:
Originally Posted by airnerd View Post

When everyone is used to a yearly refresh, and then have to wait longer there will be a lot of pent up demand. I sure hope AAPL doesn't get used to all this hype and start waiting longer between refreshes.

i don't know what kind of deal apple and AT&T worked out last year, but a lot of people probably weren't due for an upgrade until now. i bought my wife a 4 in august of last year and only in the last two weeks did her upgrade status change to fully subsidized again
post #12 of 109
The bigger the hype, the harder the fail.
"Very disappointing to have people judging something without all the facts." - charlituna.
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"Very disappointing to have people judging something without all the facts." - charlituna.
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post #13 of 109
Quote:
Originally Posted by mytdave View Post

That's great. I'm in that boat too. Apple still needs to work to push that number farther north, including a renewed push to appeal to the younger crowds which are increasingly interested in Android devices - which are now considered the devices with the 'cool' factor.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

That's a complete falsehood.



It's too early for this… Do you seriously believe that HTC guy?

Exactly. There was nothing scientific about that guy's "findings". His whole story could even have been made up.

If anything, college students and younger might choose an Android over an iPhone but because you can get a number of Android-based smartphones for under $50 -- that's appealing to a student on a tight budget.
post #14 of 109
Quote:
Originally Posted by GalaxyTab View Post

The bigger the hype, the harder the fail.


Your name choice certainly testifies to that!
post #15 of 109
Quote:
Originally Posted by GalaxyTab View Post

The bigger the hype, the harder the fail.

I know you pray for it every night.
post #16 of 109
AppleInsider sure seems to love the quoted word headlines. Maybe they'll 'enjoy' this post.
post #17 of 109
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

A new survey has found "unprecedented" demand for Apple's next iPhone, with 31 percent of respondents indicating they are likely to buy the anticipated handset.

The results of the RBC/ChangeWave survey were released Tuesday by analyst Mike Abramsky. The poll of 2,200 respondents taken between Aug. 2 and 10 found that pre-launch demand for the so-called "iPhone 5" exceeds that of the iPhone 4, as a similar poll conducted in 2010 found 25 percent of respondents would buy Apple's fourth-generation smartphone.

In all, 13 percent of respondents said in August 2011 that they are "very likely" to buy a fifth-generation iPhone, while 18 percent said they are "somewhat likely." That's even better than the 12 percent who were "very likely" and 13 percent "somewhat likely" to purchase an iPhone 4 in June of 2010.

Abramsky also pointed out what he believes will be a "significant" upgrade cycle, as the iPhone 4 is nearly 15 months old. The poll found that 66 percent of existing iPhone users are very or somewhat likely to buy the iPhone 5, which indicates Apple could see a large number of upgraders.

The survey also found strong demand for the next iPhone at carriers Sprint and T-Mobile, where more than 50 percent of subscribers said they are either significantly or somewhat more likely to buy the iPhone if available. Last month, The Wall Street Journal reported that Sprint would offer the iPhone 5 alongside AT&T and Verizon in October.

Because of the survey's indication that iPhone 5 demand is high, Abramsky has raised his estimated fiscal 2012 iPhone sales to 110 million, up from 105 million. He sees Apple selling 27 million iPhones in the first quarter of fiscal 2012 alone.

The survey also asked respondents about the iPad, and the results show utter dominance for Apple, with 85 percent of all tablet buyers planning to buy the iPad. That's up from 82 percent in February.



The survey data also shows strong back-to-school buying for the iPad 2, as 26 percent of respondents said they are very or somewhat likely to buy Apple's second-generation tablet. Accordingly, Abramsky has also increased his iPad sales estimate for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2011 to 12.5 million.

RBC Capital Markets sees Apple earning $110 billion in revenue in fiscal 2011, growing to $140 billion in revenue the following year, and $167 billion by fiscal 2013. It has a $500 price target for AAPL stock.

The big elephant is the Chinese market. If the iPhone5 uses the QCOM 3G/CDMA world chip set, then China Unicom and China Telecom could deploy the the new iPhone. Besides the contract terms, the limiting factor is the production capacity. No word of the TD-SCDMA iPhone or the 600M subs China Mobile network. I suspect all this will happen in 2012 and lead to sustainable growth.
post #18 of 109
As an Apple shareholder, it doesn't matter if the iPhone is considered "cool". As long as the sell through is hot, that is all that matters.
Nuff said
post #19 of 109
Quote:
Originally Posted by AjitMD View Post

The big elephant is the Chinese market. If the iPhone5 uses the QCOM 3G/CDMA world chip set, then China Unicom and China Telecom could deploy the the new iPhone

China Unicom has been an official iPhone carrier for a couple of years.
post #20 of 109
Count me in. My 2 year contact is up. All of us who bought the 3GS and haven't upgraded yet are waiting for the iP5 to come out.
post #21 of 109
Quote:
Originally Posted by airnerd View Post

When everyone is used to a yearly refresh, and then have to wait longer there will be a lot of pent up demand. I sure hope AAPL doesn't get used to all this hype and start waiting longer between refreshes.

Nah, iPhone sales are on the increase, meaning they are attracting new business. That's why the last quarter, they sold a record 20 million iPhones: new customers.

Same deal with Macs. Sales to first-time buyers is a major driver of growth. Something like half of the Mac sales in bricks-and-mortar Apple Stores are to first-time Mac buyers.

When Apple releases their fifth-generation iPhone, a lot of those buyers will be new.

Go read Apple's SEC filings, the sales numbers are there.
post #22 of 109
My credit card is drooling ...
Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini.
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Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini.
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post #23 of 109
My 2year Verizon contract was up in summer of 2008... and I waited until February for the iPhone to come to Verizon. By that point I said let me wait until the iPhone 5. I'm embarrassed to break out my flip phone, which has an antenna.
post #24 of 109
My question about the iPhone 5, that hasn't been addressed in any of the rumor stories that I have read, is will it be able to do voice and data simultaneously on the Verizon network? Currently you need to end your phone call if you want to look up something online. If anyone can come up with a way to pull this off it's Apple.

Please update the AppleInsider app to function in landscape mode.

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Please update the AppleInsider app to function in landscape mode.

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post #25 of 109
Quote:
Originally Posted by jd_in_sb View Post

My question about the iPhone 5, that hasn't been addressed in any of the rumor stories that I have read, is will it be able to do voice and data simultaneously on the Verizon network? Currently you need to end your phone call if you want to look up something online. If anyone can come up with a way to pull this off it's Apple.

Only if it's on the 4G/LTE network. If the iPhone 5 doesn't include LTE, then no, you won't be able to talk and surf at the same time on Verizon. It's a limitation of the carrier's network, not of the phone.
post #26 of 109
It's probably because no one knows what it really looks like, how many product lines, nothing. Everyone knew what the i4 looked like....
post #27 of 109
Quote:
Originally Posted by Obi-Wan Kubrick View Post

My 2year Verizon contract was up in summer of 2008... and I waited until February for the iPhone to come to Verizon. By that point I said let me wait until the iPhone 5. I'm embarrassed to break out my flip phone, which has an antenna.

Why? I LOVE my flip phone. It's so great. Thing's a complete tank. Drop it onto concrete? Not a scratch.

All I do with it is make phone calls, which is all I'd do phone-wise with my iPhone, anyway. That's the point of having an iPhone. Texting? Screw that. MMS? I'll e-mail. (though we DO have iMessage now for both of those, which I'd probably use).

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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post #28 of 109
Quote:
Originally Posted by cajun View Post

This can't be easy for AT&T... think of all those monthly contracts expiring (several months' worth now), and how much of an exodus there will be to Verizon, T-Mobile, and Sprint. This is the first opportunity that 3GS owners have to leave AT&T (and still be on the iPhone).

Leaving ATT sounds all and good, but I know that Verizon is CDMA which means no simultaneous voice and data. What type of networks are Sprint and T-Mobile? I don't want to end up losing functionality by downgrading to a CDMA network. I'm thinking a lot of ATT haters who decide to jump to Verizon are going to be in for a rather unpleasant surprise when then are trying to use voice and data at the same time there.
post #29 of 109
These people are going to be severely disappointed...
post #30 of 109
A poll of 2200 respondents (31 per cent of whom say theyll probably buy an iPhone 5)? OK. But how were they selected? Were they chosen at random from the worlds population? (I dont think so.) Were they randomly selected adult Americans? (Still pretty unlikely as the figures would still be truly astounding.) Were the respondents all existing iPhone users signed up with a particular US carrier? (Possibly.) The point is that the figures given are meaningless without any kind of baseline for comparison. Details and link to source, please.

As an iPhone 3G user, Id love to upgrade to an iPhone 5 (or whatever its called) when it comes out especially as my phone became a sluggard after its first iOS upgrade and never fully recovered anything like its original speed. However, I cant really justify spending a couple of weeks income on a mobile phone just over two years after I bought the last one. (Theres a datapoint for you albeit not a very interesting one!)
post #31 of 109
The amount of iPhones sold will depend on if there will be an iPhone 5, iPhone 4s or both.

The latest rumors is that there will only be an Iphone4s. That would be a huge disappointment.

Even if it gets an A5 SoC and would be the fastest phone there this, it is not enough to upgrade from iPhone4.

It would be the first iPhone I didn't buy.

I hope for an iPhone 5 with larger display and redesign + iPhone 4s.

Since iPods will be updated at the same time: maybe the 3G iPod touch will be introduced. A 249 dollar device that can do "free" FaceTime and messenger center.
post #32 of 109
Quote:
Originally Posted by punkrocker27ka View Post

These people are going to be severely disappointed...

It's an Apple product release. You think that's not the case every single time?

I've said it before, so I'll say it until it sticks: "No matter how low I set my bar, Apple always manages to worm under it."

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply
post #33 of 109
I have commented on this sort of survey before, but it proves once again that SOME people will purely buy on brand alone, without knowing anything about the product. If the actual specs for the iPhone 5 had been released by Apple, then this would be understandable, but if I was Apple or any other vendor for that matter, I would be frankly embarrassed if people were so obsessed with me or my brand, they would buy anything I produced.

I am typing this on a MacBook Pro, also use an iPad 2 and an iPhone 1. I use them because they meet my needs, not because they have an Apple logo on them. I also use an Motorola DEFY Android phone because it is water and shock resistant, making it life and drop proof.

Again, this is very embarrassing and makes a joke of the Apple (stellar) sales figures, because it means that a proportion of Apple customers are buying based on brand, not functionality!

I have been defending Apple from my large proportion of Apple hating friends, but now, I am seeing they may have had a point.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

A new survey has found "unprecedented" demand for Apple's next iPhone, with 31 percent of respondents indicating they are likely to buy the anticipated handset.

The results of the RBC/ChangeWave survey were released Tuesday by analyst Mike Abramsky. The poll of 2,200 respondents taken between Aug. 2 and 10 found that pre-launch demand for the so-called "iPhone 5" exceeds that of the iPhone 4, as a similar poll conducted in 2010 found 25 percent of respondents would buy Apple's fourth-generation smartphone.

In all, 13 percent of respondents said in August 2011 that they are "very likely" to buy a fifth-generation iPhone, while 18 percent said they are "somewhat likely." That's even better than the 12 percent who were "very likely" and 13 percent "somewhat likely" to purchase an iPhone 4 in June of 2010.

Abramsky also pointed out what he believes will be a "significant" upgrade cycle, as the iPhone 4 is nearly 15 months old. The poll found that 66 percent of existing iPhone users are very or somewhat likely to buy the iPhone 5, which indicates Apple could see a large number of upgraders.

The survey also found strong demand for the next iPhone at carriers Sprint and T-Mobile, where more than 50 percent of subscribers said they are either significantly or somewhat more likely to buy the iPhone if available. Last month, The Wall Street Journal reported that Sprint would offer the iPhone 5 alongside AT&T and Verizon in October.

Because of the survey's indication that iPhone 5 demand is high, Abramsky has raised his estimated fiscal 2012 iPhone sales to 110 million, up from 105 million. He sees Apple selling 27 million iPhones in the first quarter of fiscal 2012 alone.

The survey also asked respondents about the iPad, and the results show utter dominance for Apple, with 85 percent of all tablet buyers planning to buy the iPad. That's up from 82 percent in February.



The survey data also shows strong back-to-school buying for the iPad 2, as 26 percent of respondents said they are very or somewhat likely to buy Apple's second-generation tablet. Accordingly, Abramsky has also increased his iPad sales estimate for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2011 to 12.5 million.

RBC Capital Markets sees Apple earning $110 billion in revenue in fiscal 2011, growing to $140 billion in revenue the following year, and $167 billion by fiscal 2013. It has a $500 price target for AAPL stock.
post #34 of 109
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oflife View Post

Again, this is very embarrassing and makes a joke of the Apple (stellar) sales figures, because it means that a proportion of Apple customers are buying based on brand, not functionality!

Uh you've completely glossed over the fact that Apple wouldn't be making record sales and record profits every single quarter if their products sucked.

Do you think that people would continue to buy Apple products if they sucked after the first 'purchase based on name alone', or do you think that everyone who buys an Apple product once is killed immediately thereafter, removed from the planet, and replaced with someone who has never bought one?

Because that's the only explanation I have for your line of thinking.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply
post #35 of 109
Abramsky is full of it. 28.30 for 2011. This means he is saying this Q will be $7.66 in EPS.

He was off by 20 percent in the last Q. I bet this Q, he will be off by 30 percent.
post #36 of 109
Quote:
Originally Posted by Obi-Wan Kubrick View Post

My 2year Verizon contract was up in summer of 2008... and I waited until February for the iPhone to come to Verizon. By that point I said let me wait until the iPhone 5. I'm embarrassed to break out my flip phone, which has an antenna.

That's one of the few benefits of getting older... embarrassment is a thing of the past. When I break out my flip phone the younger crowd is amazed that I have a cell phone... when I start to text with the thing it throws them into shock!

btw... I'll be getting an iPhone 5... for my Wife.
na na na na na...
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na na na na na...
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post #37 of 109
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oflife View Post

I have commented on this sort of survey before, but it proves once again that SOME people will purely buy on brand alone, without knowing anything about the product. If the actual specs for the iPhone 5 had been released by Apple, then this would be understandable, but if I was Apple or any other vendor for that matter, I would be frankly embarrassed if people were so obsessed with me or my brand, they would buy anything I produced.

Oh calm down. The iPhone is an extremely strong brand - probably the best model/name/brand awareness in the whole phone market. Only one comes out every year, and they usually set the bar for the whole industry. Probably 100 come out for the competition annually - can you blame the general public for not knowing/caring as much about them?

But for people who are just looking for something that performs excellently, is easy to use, has tons of safe apps, integrates with media, and has beautiful design, the "iPhone 5" is an EXTREMELY good bet. Do you really think that the next-generation iPhone might suddenly become ugly and hard to use?

I was in the car market a few years ago. I knew that I was leaning toward a Honda - not because of blind loyalty or "obsession with a brand". Because my previous Honda lasted 17 years!
post #38 of 109
Quote:
Originally Posted by saarek View Post

This is the type of survey where ones response can only be something like "No Sh*t Sherlock"!

Last year also didn't have the Verizon iPhone.

Quote:
Now we just need Apple to arrange a little presentation.......

if they are going to have one. Changing the release of the phone to the fall might not be the only change Apple makes


Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

It's an Apple product release. You think that's not the case every single time?

I've said it before, so I'll say it until it sticks: "No matter how low I set my bar, Apple always manages to worm under it."

And yet it will likely be a huge success sales wise.

Must kill you because you KNOW you could have done it better and yet . . .

A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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post #39 of 109
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

It's an Apple product release. You think that's not the case every single time?

I've said it before, so I'll say it until it sticks: "No matter how low I set my bar, Apple always manages to worm under it."

I'm kind of curious as to where you set your bar on the Apple stock price? $500? $1000?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Oflife View Post

I have commented on this sort of survey before, but it proves once again that SOME people will purely buy on brand alone, without knowing anything about the product. If the actual specs for the iPhone 5 had been released by Apple, then this would be understandable, but if I was Apple or any other vendor for that matter, I would be frankly embarrassed if people were so obsessed with me or my brand, they would buy anything I produced.

I am typing this on a MacBook Pro, also use an iPad 2 and an iPhone 1. I use them because they meet my needs, not because they have an Apple logo on them. I also use an Motorola DEFY Android phone because it is water and shock resistant, making it life and drop proof.

Again, this is very embarrassing and makes a joke of the Apple (stellar) sales figures, because it means that a proportion of Apple customers are buying based on brand, not functionality!

I have been defending Apple from my large proportion of Apple hating friends, but now, I am seeing they may have had a point.

I can't wait for the iPhone 5 to be available myself, and this definitely has absolutely nothing to do with an Apple logo. I currently have a 3GS and it's time for a replacement. My wife has an iPhone 4 and it's been a solid device also. I've owned a couple of iPods over the years and I currently have a 3.5 year old Mac Pro as well as a 6 month old MBP. I have enough experience with Apple products to have a certain level of expectation for the quality and performance of their products. This isn't about some fanboy obsession, it simple observation and experience with their products.

Am I hoping for a 4" LTE phone with 1GB of RAM? ABSOLUTELY!!! Do I expect that to be in the cards for the iPhone 5? Unfortunately, no. I expect the 5 to be a incremental boost over the 4 with a faster processor, better camera, and an improved antenna setup. I would love to have more than this, but I'll be quite satisfied with this as an upgrade to my aging 3GS.
post #40 of 109
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

Nah, iPhone sales are on the increase, meaning they are attracting new business. That's why the last quarter, they sold a record 20 million iPhones: new customers.

Same deal with Macs. Sales to first-time buyers is a major driver of growth. Something like half of the Mac sales in bricks-and-mortar Apple Stores are to first-time Mac buyers.

When Apple releases their fifth-generation iPhone, a lot of those buyers will be new.

Go read Apple's SEC filings, the sales numbers are there.

You quote me, disagree with me, and then have nothing to say about what I said? I never said anything about numbers or sales falling off. I said I hope that AAPL doesn't push the refresh back because they see all the hype they can get. Sales still being there is actually another point that makes my concern MORE valid. If they see that sales are still there, and by holding back a refresh they can get even more hype and fervor for the product, then they might be tempted to keep doing it.
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