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IDC: Apple's iPad 2 took market share from Android tablets in Q2 2011 - Page 2

post #41 of 104
9/14/11 at 12:41pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

Mmmm...

It appears that one of the best ways to get into the tablet market -- is to get out of the tablet market!


Just think of the share they could get if they liquidated all other assets and continued building (and reinvesting that pittance they get for the pads till its gone too) and keep selling at $99 (is there an educational discount?). Probably get big for a while but sense these are not subsidized like phones and they were selling well below cost the stockholders might have a small problem with that.

You see the real game is to sell a fantastic product that people line up for and meets their needs, has a very reasonable price and the company makes a profit. Wait a minute, isn't that the trick to any successful business?
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post #42 of 104
9/14/11 at 12:50pm
In the *wild*, I only see non-Apple tablets in stores. At airports, Starbucks, universities and bookstores, iPads abound, often in equal numbers to laptops. Presumably, the HP fire sale has resulted in half a million to a million TouchPads being sold. But I have yet to see one anywhere.

All to say, I still have trouble believing one third of tablets, shipped or sold, are not from Apple.
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post #43 of 104
9/14/11 at 1:04pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post

No. You would be amaze by the amount of cheap 7" android 2.2 ou 3.0 tablets that sells. If we could segment the tablet market, maybe Apple has a 95% market share on the $500+ high end tablets. But the tablet market is more than that.

Based on Google's data on the Market Place, there are about 1.5 million Android tablets in the wild.
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post #44 of 104
9/14/11 at 1:07pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by applecider View Post

Maybe the numbers of sold tablets could be estimated by looking at the number of tablets activated on cell carriers.

Or perhaps the number of web browser hits on sites could be identified by tablet type.

Has anyone seen these numbers? They would of course have their own biases like sprint would not be expected to activate many ipads.

These type of metrics mght actually measure the relative shipped vs sold numbers.

A good metric is to look at Google's data on screen size and Android versions in use to access the Android Market. We know the number of Android handsets "activated" and using this, it shows about 1.5 million tablets in use.
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post #45 of 104
9/14/11 at 1:57pm
My plan when ever I spot a non-Apple pad is to try looking sympathetic, turn my head down and pretend to cover a giggle. I've been practicing.

Oh when while I get to see one in public?
Know History; Not just your Folklore
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Know History; Not just your Folklore
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post #46 of 104
9/14/11 at 2:22pm
Apple has sold 28 million iPads in 2011. If there are only 1.5 M android sets on the internet I would say that at most 2 million have been sold to consumers.
That would give android a 7% market share, if we give all others (windows tablets, HP etc.) except ipad another 7% then that puts apple at around 85% of the market.

Time will tell.
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post #47 of 104
9/14/11 at 2:35pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by applecider View Post

Maybe the numbers of sold tablets could be estimated by looking at the number of tablets activated on cell carriers.

Wouldn't that just measure 3G tablets?
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post #48 of 104
9/14/11 at 3:01pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steven N. View Post

Based on Google's data on the Market Place, there are about 1.5 million Android tablets in the wild.

Maybe they are being bought by basement geeks that order over the net, eat delivery food and haven't seen the sun in months.
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post #49 of 104
9/14/11 at 3:43pm
Well, we'll have to include those 5,000 methanol-driven tablets that MS gave to developers this week!

That will certainly skew the numbers.

MS also wins the "2011 Creative Encryption and Insightful Abstraction" award -- by cleverly giving the OS replacement for Windows 7, the codename "Windows 8"

I kinda' miss longhorny!
"So at the end of the presentation, Steve came up to me and said: Is the iPhone worth criticizing? And I said: Make the screen five inches by eight inches, and you’ll rule the world."
– Alan Kay –
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"So at the end of the presentation, Steve came up to me and said: Is the iPhone worth criticizing? And I said: Make the screen five inches by eight inches, and you’ll rule the world."
– Alan Kay –
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post #50 of 104
9/14/11 at 5:09pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steven N. View Post

A good metric is to look at Google's data on screen size and Android versions in use to access the Android Market. We know the number of Android handsets "activated" and using this, it shows about 1.5 million tablets in use.

Not true. Google claims that there are 1.5 M tablet activations. Some of those are duplicates.
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post #51 of 104
9/14/11 at 5:12pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

Not true. Google claims that there are 1.5 M tablet activations. Some of those are duplicates.

Duplicates? Where did you see that?

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melior diabolus quem scies

"No theatrics and no more personal attacks, just stick to the logic and tell me why I don't have any argument ~ Jragosta/2012

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post #52 of 104
9/14/11 at 5:56pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by shen View Post

"Apple's iPad 2 took market share from Android tablets"

Exactly what percentage of nothing did they take?

+++

Shen's post summed it up. There really isn't a viable tablet other than iPads. No one knows how to make them with decent performance, build quality and integration.
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post #53 of 104
9/14/11 at 6:35pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdhayes117 View Post

Maybe we should start a "spotters" club, similar to bird or aircraft watchers. We could report when we spot an elusive touchpad in the wild. Report the usage habits of the wild "Tab". Claim glory by spotting the first wild Win8 tablet! (Personally, I believe they only exist in myth and legend...)

Thoughts?

Maybe a "tag and release" program. Put an RFID band on the USER of the touchpad -- not the device itself.

After all, we don't want them going extinct.


>> in all seriousness, however, I HOPE that the competition can improve. I don't want Apple to become like Microsoft and suddenly have to worry about Monopoly provisions every time they add a feature.
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post #54 of 104
9/14/11 at 6:37pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by AdyB View Post

Wouldn't that just measure 3G tablets?

It would but what I'm talking about is measuroing the proportion of ipads to other tablets on cell networks.
This would give the android numbers the best showing as I'm sure that the cell providers are pushing android with data plans.

Would have to compare providers with both android and ipad, so verizon and ATT.

4G numbers would be interesting as well as that would measure how many zooms were upgraded, at least I think it was the zoom that could be upgraded to 4G.
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post #55 of 104
9/14/11 at 6:56pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by PBRSTREETG View Post

+++

Shen's post summed it up. There really isn't a viable tablet other than iPads. No one knows how to make them with decent performance, build quality and integration.

Well, Steve Jobs and Apple were working in the skunkworks for YEARS before releasing the iTouch and Tablets -- they did a lot of research.

Google and WebOS did an admirable job of playing catchup-- but they didn't have the advantage of the tight integration of hardware and OS. They also didn't get all the NATIVE code in C++ -- which I have to figure has LOTs to do with energy savings. You know, like not having 3rd party "platforms" like Flash which would hog the the CPU and prevent real optimization.

I think that OTHER tablet platforms wish they could have dictated things like Steve Jobs did in retrospect. Their bragging rights of "open", full featured (like a desktop), and running JAVA, flash and .NET --- whatever, don't always translate to the user experience.

Probably in another few years -- tablets will have the power to spare to accomplish "virtual" hardware emulation -- but this is like the days of the 386, where C was a luxury and an Assembler Coder was "the man."

But currently, when the Tablets get the power up -- they lose the battery life -- and vice, versa. Remember how long it took for Apple to offer "simulated" multi-tasking? There isn't one OS feature that wasn't made on a CPU/Battery performance decision -- whereas the competition, was adding OS features off a wish list, without such regard.
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post #56 of 104
9/14/11 at 6:57pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by applecider View Post

It would but what I'm talking about is measuroing the proportion of ipads to other tablets on cell networks.
This would give the android numbers the best showing as I'm sure that the cell providers are pushing android with data plans.

Would have to compare providers with both android and ipad, so verizon and ATT.

4G numbers would be interesting as well as that would measure how many zooms were upgraded, at least I think it was the zoom that could be upgraded to 4G.

I would suspect that most tablets sold, whether from Apple or 'other", are wifi only.

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melior diabolus quem scies

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post #57 of 104
9/14/11 at 9:32pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Duplicates? Where did you see that?

An activation is counted when the phone is activated (reset/upgrade...) and the unique phone ID is different than the unique phone ID attached to the associated account from the previous activation.

This counts used phones and if you have multiple phones, each time a phone is activated, if it is different phone than the previous time you activated a phone, it counts. If you simply upgrade a phone it is not counted. He estimated the activation count was between 30%-50% high compared to new unit sales.

This came from a Google Engineer.
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post #58 of 104
9/15/11 at 5:34am
Basically, as most people here know, with Apple shipped equals sold. That is not the case with manufacturers going via resellers. HP had shipped many TouchBooks, that only sold when they pulled the plug and gave them away at a loss. So, Samsung, Acer, RIM, Cisco, etc.: how much have been sold instead of just shipped?
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post #59 of 104
9/15/11 at 6:26am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steven N. View Post

An activation is counted when the phone is activated (reset/upgrade...) and the unique phone ID is different than the unique phone ID attached to the associated account from the previous activation.

This counts used phones and if you have multiple phones, each time a phone is activated, if it is different phone than the previous time you activated a phone, it counts. If you simply upgrade a phone it is not counted. He estimated the activation count was between 30%-50% high compared to new unit sales.

This came from a Google Engineer.

If your talking about the rumored conversation with a Google engineer mentioned here several months ago, he made no such claim regarding how Google counts the number of Android devices in service IIRC. And that assumes any part of that was true to begin with.

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melior diabolus quem scies

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post #60 of 104
9/15/11 at 9:52am
Samsung's filed a unique patent for a tablet design, and one that I hope we see. Current 10" tablets aren't the most convenient to tote around. Unfortunate since they're intended as mobile devices. Samsung's designed around that, with a foldable tablet with a flexible full size screen. And yes, Samsung already has a foldable/flexible screen patented and shown too.

http://www.patentlyapple.com/patentl...om-apples.html

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post #61 of 104
9/15/11 at 1:32pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Thanks for the shout-out, but it's safe to assume that 80-90% of the shipped numbers (the numbers Apple reports) are actually sold thru. No need to produce a link. I trust you guys.

All of Apple's numbers are sell-through, not 80-90%. they have made that very clear, several times.

Oh and as for shipping vs sold numbers, we had been talking about RIM recently. They shipped 500,000 two quarters ago. How many did they sell? Well, they just now said that they shipped 200,000 for the quarter just past. That should give you some idea.

And they only shipped 10 million phones. Their stock is tanking after hours.
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post #62 of 104
9/15/11 at 1:53pm
This isn't new.

Microsoft Courier

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Samsung's filed a unique patent for a tablet design, and one that I hope we see. Current 10" tablets aren't the most convenient to tote around. Unfortunate since they're intended as mobile devices. Samsung's designed around that, with a foldable tablet with a flexible full size screen. And yes, Samsung already has a foldable/flexible screen patented and shown too.

http://www.patentlyapple.com/patentl...om-apples.html
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post #63 of 104
9/15/11 at 2:23pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

All of Apple's numbers are sell-through, not 80-90%. they have made that very clear, several times. . .

Mel, if they're all sold, why do I see iPad's at my local Verizon store, and at WalMart? I assume they're also in stock, still unsold, at Best Buy and Apple Stores. I understand that Apple doesn't own them anymore, since they're sold to a retailer/reseller, but they're not sold in the sense that they're in a consumer's hands.

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post #64 of 104
9/15/11 at 2:26pm
You've asked them how much they have in stock and what their sell through numbers are?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Mel, if they're all sold, why do I see iPad's at my local Verizon store, and at WalMart? I assume they're also in stock, still unsold, at Best Buy and Apple Stores. I understand that Apple doesn't own them anymore, since they're sold to a retailer/reseller, but they're not sold in the sense that they're in a consumer's hands.
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post #65 of 104
9/15/11 at 2:29pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

You've asked them how much they have in stock and what their sell through numbers are?

No, I wasn't asking anything about sell-thru vs. stock. Mel disagreed with something I had posted earlier, and I was just trying to get clarification from him.

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post #66 of 104
9/15/11 at 2:32pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Mel, if they're all sold, why do I see iPad's at my local Verizon store, and at WalMart? I assume they're also in stock, still unsold, at Best Buy and Apple Stores. I understand that Apple doesn't own them anymore, since they're sold to a retailer/reseller, but they're not sold in the sense that they're in a consumer's hands.

No, no! Apple reports sell-through, not shipped. Those you see are not being reported as sell-through. Apple also reports weeks of inventory. In other words, based on how many units are being sold to users, they estimate how many weeks of supply are in the channel, meaning being shipped, and on store shelves. Two separate numbers. If you read Apple's financials you will see this. You will also know it if you listen in on their conference calls. It's very clear.
So if they say 9 million sold, it means that people have bought them. If they say there's 3 weeks in the channel, it means that there is enough to supply retailers with enough for 3 weeks of sales to customers.
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post #67 of 104
9/15/11 at 2:36pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

No, no! Apple reports sell-through, not shipped. Those you see are not being reported as sell-through. Apple also reports weeks of inventory. In other words, based on how many units are being sold to users, they estimate how many weeks of supply are in the channel, meaning being shipped, and on store shelves. Two separate numbers. If you read Apple's financials you will see this. You will also know it if you listen in on their conference calls. It's very clear.
So if they say 9 million sold, it means that people have bought them. If they say there's 3 weeks in the channel, it means that there is enough to supply retailers with enough for 3 weeks of sales to customers.

Ah, thanks for that. So do you know how they're counted? Device activations or something else?

So then Apple will announce the total iPads they have for sale and the number they sold to consumers at the next quarters conference call. I want to make sure I'm understanding correctly now. As you can see I don't listen to conference calls as a rule. Last one I listened in on was Garmin and that was sometime last year.

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post #68 of 104
9/15/11 at 2:45pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Ah, thanks for that. So do you know how they're counted? Device activations or something else?

I would imagine it's done the old fashioned way, the way I did it with my companies. You know how many you sell. That's a given. Your distributers tell you how many went to their customers, the retailers. The retailers report sales on a monthly basis, or for some fast moving products, on a weekly basis.

You don't need to know activations to get the numbers. All companies know the numbers shortly after the quarter is over, or month, or week. It's really not a big deal, it's been done for over a century, maybe two.

You can use activations to double check the numbers to see if what is bought is being used. For example, during holiday seasons, many things are bought as gifts, but many people receiving those gifts don't start using them for days, or even weeks. So the numbers may not jibe.
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post #69 of 104
9/15/11 at 2:47pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

I would imagine it's done the old fashioned way, the way I did it with my companies. You know how many you sell. That's a given. Your distributers tell you how many went to their customers, the retailers. The retailers report sales on a monthly basis, or for some fast moving products, on a weekly basis.

You don't need to know activations to get the numbers. All companies know the numbers shortly after the quarter is over, or month, or week. It's really not a big deal, it's been done for over a century, maybe two.

You can use activations to double check the numbers to see if what is bought is being used. For example, during holiday seasons, many things are bought as gifts, but many people receiving those gifts don't start using them for days, or even weeks. So the numbers may not jibe.

So you don't know how Apple is counting then. No biggie. I didn't know if Apple had stated how they count units sold at some point.

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post #70 of 104
9/15/11 at 2:53pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

So you don't know how Apple is counting then. No biggie. I didn't know if Apple had stated how they count units sold at some point.

Well, yes, I pretty well do know, you just want to take a negative tack.
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post #71 of 104
9/15/11 at 3:05pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Well, yes, I pretty well do know, you just want to take a negative tack.

There's no shame in saying "I don't know for sure". It's not an insult, even if you wish to take it that way.

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post #72 of 104
9/15/11 at 3:12pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

There's no shame in saying "I don't know for sure". It's not an insult, even if you wish to take it that way.

It's your response that's the problem. I'm telling you how it's done. Can I prove Apple does it that way? Of course not. But I would be pretty surprised if they didn't.

So your response that I don't know is fatuous, and intended to be belittling. You didn't even have to respond, but you did. Or you could have just said; "Ok, thanks".
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post #73 of 104
9/15/11 at 3:13pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

It's your response that's the problem. I'm telling you how it's done. Can I prove Apple does it that way? Of course not. But I would be pretty surprised if they didn't.

So your response that I don't know is fatuous, and intended to be belittling. You didn't even have to respond, but you did. Or you could have just said; "Ok, thanks".

OK thanks.

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post #74 of 104
9/15/11 at 3:17pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

This isn't new.

Microsoft Courier

The difference is the Courier (and Sony's new clamshell design) has two distinct screens with a bezel separating them. Not so with Samsung's idea, with uses a flexible screen that spans the entire width in one continuous display.

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post #75 of 104
9/15/11 at 3:24pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

I'm telling you how it's done. Can I prove Apple does it that way? Of course not. But I would be pretty surprised if they didn't.

So your response that I don't know is fatuous, and intended to be belittling. You didn't even have to respond, but you did. Or you could have just said; "Ok, thanks".

Ok, 10 minutes of research found the answer. From Apple themselves:

“(Apple) recognizes revenue when persuasive evidence of an arrangement exists, delivery has occurred, the sales price is fixed or determinable, and collection is probable. Product is considered delivered to the customer once it has been shipped and title and risk of loss have been transferred. For most of (Apple)’s product sales, these criteria are met at the time the product is shipped. For online sales to individuals, for some sales to education customers in the U.S., and for certain other sales, (Apple) defers revenue until the customer receives the product because (Apple) legally retains a portion of the risk of loss on these sales during transit.”

An iPad on a freight plane headed to a Walmart warehouse is no longer counted as an iPad in Apple’s inventory, instead it is counted as an iPad in Walmart’s inventory. Apple is able to recognize that iPad as sold and recognize the accompanying revenue (and profit).

So now everyone has a reference for how Apple really counts sales: Generally shipped to a reseller is a sale, same as everyone else does. To an on-line customer, not counted until it arrives since Apple is responsible if it doesn't arrive in good condition (or at all).

Read more: http://articles.businessinsider.com/...#ixzz1Y3wBFhtF

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post #76 of 104
9/15/11 at 3:34pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Ok, 10 minutes of research found the answer. From Apple themselves:

“(Apple) recognizes revenue when persuasive evidence of an arrangement exists, delivery has occurred, the sales price is fixed or determinable, and collection is probable. Product is considered delivered to the customer once it has been shipped and title and risk of loss have been transferred. For most of (Apple)’s product sales, these criteria are met at the time the product is shipped. For online sales to individuals, for some sales to education customers in the U.S., and for certain other sales, (Apple) defers revenue until the customer receives the product because (Apple) legally retains a portion of the risk of loss on these sales during transit.”

An iPad on a freight plane headed to a Walmart warehouse is no longer counted as an iPad in Apple’s inventory, instead it is counted as an iPad in Walmart’s inventory. Apple is able to recognize that iPad as sold and recognize the accompanying revenue (and profit).

Read more: http://articles.businessinsider.com/...#ixzz1Y3wBFhtF

That pretty much agrees with what I said, if you read the entire article, which explains the plane to Walmart concept, where Walmart knows how many it's selling almost as soon as it's sold, and that the items on the plane will be sold as soon as they come in. And as the article clearly states, Apple receives the transaction info from the retailer about each sale. You just took parts of the article. You need to read the entire thing to understand what was said here.

As I said, Apple receives this info on a weekly to a monthly basic.
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post #77 of 104
9/15/11 at 3:37pm
Yeah that sounds like a feasible technology that will be available and affordable any time soon.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

The difference is the Courier (and Sony's new clamshell design) has two distinct screens with a bezel separating them. Not so with Samsung's idea, with uses a flexible screen that spans the entire width in one continuous display.
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post #78 of 104
9/15/11 at 3:46pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

That pretty much agrees with what I said, if you read the entire article, which explains the plane to Walmart concept, where Walmart knows how many it's selling almost as soon as it's sold, and that the items on the plane will be sold as soon as they come in. And as the article clearly states, Apple receives the transaction info from the retailer about each sale. You just took parts of the article. You need to read the entire thing to understand what was said here.

Not what you said at all Mel, which is clear to anyone reading your responses. I don't know why you're trying to pick a fight on this. You didn't know. Heck, I didn't know, that's why I asked. Apple had the answer. It just took a few minutes of research to find it.

In the end, my original statement was probably pretty darn close. 80-90% of Apple's stated sales are actually in consumer hands, or sell-thru, with the remainder in retailer warehouses or on store shelves.

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"No theatrics and no more personal attacks, just stick to the logic and tell me why I don't have any argument ~ Jragosta/2012

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melior diabolus quem scies

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post #79 of 104
9/15/11 at 3:48pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

Yeah that sounds like a feasible technology that will be available and affordable any time soon.

They've already invented the display, produced it and demo'd it. Quite some months ago as a matter of fact.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HU2nG9qy6vs

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"No theatrics and no more personal attacks, just stick to the logic and tell me why I don't have any argument ~ Jragosta/2012

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post #80 of 104
9/15/11 at 7:01pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Not what you said at all Mel, which is clear to anyone reading your responses. I don't know why you're trying to pick a fight on this. You didn't know. Heck, I didn't know, that's why I asked. Apple had the answer. It just took a few minutes of research to find it.

In the end, my original statement was probably pretty darn close. 80-90% of Apple's stated sales are actually in consumer hands, or sell-thru, with the remainder in retailer warehouses or on store shelves.

I'm not trying to pick a fight on this, you are. And most of it does repeat what I said. In addition. Both Jobs and Cook, during the financial calls, which are legal documents, in case you don't know, have said that Apple counts sales as sell through to the end buyer of the device. They have never been called out on that, and you can read MANY articles in the financial press stating that Apple is the only company stating actual sales.

If that's not good enough for you, then too bad!

And no, you are completely wrong, it's not 80-90%, it's just as Apple says-100%. Suck on it if you must.
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  • IDC: Apple's iPad 2 took market share from Android tablets in Q2 2011
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