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Gartner projects Apple's iPad to maintain 50% market share through 2014

post #1 of 19
Thread Starter 
Apple's iPad will continue to dominate the tablet market, maintaining more than 50 percent market share through 2014, according to a new analysis.

Research group Gartner issued a special report on Thursday, noting that Apple will have a "free run" in the tablet market this holiday season as rivals continue to lag. The group sees worldwide media tablet sales as on track to reach 63.6 million units this year, a 261.4 percent increase from 2010.

Gartner predicts Apple will hold on to a dominant 73.4 percent of the market this year, though down from 83 percent in 2010. Android is expected to remain in second place, with the firm assuming that no other platforms will manage a 5 percent share of the market in 2011.

Apple's head start on tablets will provide it with a comfortable lead for at least several more years, according to Gartner. By the end of 2015, the company's tablet share is expected to slide to 46 percent.

We expect Apple to maintain a market share lead throughout our forecast period by commanding more than 50 percent of the market until 2014, said Carolina Milanesi, research vice president at Gartner. This is because Apple delivers a superior and unified user experience across its hardware, software and services. Unless competitors can respond with a similar approach, challenges to Apples position will be minimal.

"Apple had the foresight to create this market and in doing that planned for it as far as component supplies such as memory and screen. This allowed Apple to bring the iPad out at a very competitive price and no compromise in experience among the different models that offer storage and connectivity options.

Gartner believes Android tablets will reach 11 million in sales this year, enough for a 17.3 percent share of sales. According to the firm's projections, Android will approach Apple with 116 million tablet sales, enough for 35.6 percent market share.

Source: Gartner (September 2011)

So far, Androids appeal in the tablet market has been constrained by high prices, weak user interface and limited tablet applications, Milanesi said. Google will address the fragmentation of Android across smartphone and tablet form factors within the next Android release, known as Ice Cream Sandwich, which we expect to see in the fourth quarter of 2011. Android can count on strong support from key OEMs, has a sizeable developer community, and its smartphones application ecosystem is second only to Apples.

Research in Motion's QNX platform is projected to sell 3 million tablets. Gartner analysts noted QNX as having promise, while pointing out that it's still in the "early stages of development." A recent report claimed Quanta, the manufacturer contracted by RIM to produce its PlayBook tablet, has let 1,000 workers go from production lines for the device after RIM posted shipments of just 200,000 tablets last quarter. The BlackBerry maker had reportedly expected to produce 800,000 PlayBooks per month in the second half of 2011.

HP's WebOS is expected by Gartner to achieve 2 million in sales from its inventory clearance this year, but the figures will register as only a blip, since the product has been discontinued. The world's largest PC maker changed leadership on Thursday after investors lost confidence in the company's plan to spin off its PC business, abandon WebOS development and shift toward software services.

Gartner also made note of "current buzz" around upcoming Windows 8 tablets, but expressed concerns that customers would lose interest if Microsoft's "no-compromise" strategy for Windows ends up actually compromising usability. Also, tablet devices running Microsoft's platform will be late arrivals and could have a hard time gaining traction as Apple and Android will be "more entrenched by then." Microsoft is expected to hold just 10.5 percent tablet market share in 2015.

In April, Gartner issued projections for the tablet market, but the industry has seen substantial change since then. The group had to remove future sales of WebOS tablets, revise projected sales of Android, QNX and MeeGo downward and add estimates for Microsoft.

Earlier this week, it was reported that, during a presentation, Gartner had described Apple's iPad as an "unstoppable train" in the enterprise. Apple is expected to especially benefit from a new trend among business of "bring your own devices" policies.
post #2 of 19
These research group analyses are trash.

I recommend that tech media readers ignore these findings. There are about ten different market research firms and they all are very good at botching their predictions.
post #3 of 19
Running and hiding behind your monitor is no way to learn about a market - or make decisions. Information helps and some sources prove useful over time.

Saying that, the greater decision an investor would have to make about this forecast would involve the fact that 50% market share for the iPad vs. those who in general only compete to the commodity crowd on price - and that Apple would easily draw 80% of the profit from the same market.

Makes the decision about who to invest in rather easy.

BTW, Gartner has a pretty good track record on Apple.
post #4 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Apple's iPad will continue to dominate the tablet market, maintaining more than 50 percent market share through 2014, according to a new analysis.

Research group Gartner issued a special report on Thursday, noting that Apple will have a "free run" in the tablet market this holiday season as rivals continue to lag. The group sees worldwide media tablet sales as on track to reach 63.6 million units this year, a 261.4 percent increase from 2010.

Gartner predicts Apple will hold on to a dominant 73.4 percent of the market this year, though down from 83 percent in 2010. Android is expected to remain in second place, with the firm assuming that no other platforms will manage a 5 percent share of the market in 2011.

Apple's head start on tablets will provide it with a comfortable lead for at least several more years, according to Gartner. By the end of 2015, the company's tablet share is expected to slide to 46 percent.

We expect Apple to maintain a market share lead throughout our forecast period by commanding more than 50 percent of the market until 2014, said Carolina Milanesi, research vice president at Gartner. This is because Apple delivers a superior and unified user experience across its hardware, software and services. Unless competitors can respond with a similar approach, challenges to Apples position will be minimal.

"Apple had the foresight to create this market and in doing that planned for it as far as component supplies such as memory and screen. This allowed Apple to bring the iPad out at a very competitive price and no compromise in experience among the different models that offer storage and connectivity options.

Gartner believes Android tablets will reach 11 million in sales this year, enough for a 17.3 percent share of sales. According to the firm's projections, Android will approach Apple with 116 million tablet sales, enough for 35.6 percent market share.

Source: Gartner (September 2011)

So far, Androids appeal in the tablet market has been constrained by high prices, weak user interface and limited tablet applications, Milanesi said. Google will address the fragmentation of Android across smartphone and tablet form factors within the next Android release, known as Ice Cream Sandwich, which we expect to see in the fourth quarter of 2011. Android can count on strong support from key OEMs, has a sizeable developer community, and its smartphones application ecosystem is second only to Apples.

Research in Motion's QNX platform is projected to sell 3 million tablets. Gartner analysts noted QNX as having promise, while pointing out that it's still in the "early stages of development." A recent report claimed Quanta, the manufacturer contracted by RIM to produce its PlayBook tablet, has let 1,000 workers go from production lines for the device after RIM posted shipments of just 200,000 tablets last quarter. The BlackBerry maker had reportedly expected to produce 800,000 PlayBooks per month in the second half of 2011.

HP's WebOS is expected by Gartner to achieve 2 million in sales from its inventory clearance this year, but the figures will register as only a blip, since the product has been discontinued. The world's largest PC maker changed leadership on Thursday after investors lost confidence in the company's plan to spin off its PC business, abandon WebOS development and shift toward software services.

Gartner also made note of "current buzz" around upcoming Windows 8 tablets, but expressed concerns that customers would lose interest if Microsoft's "no-compromise" strategy for Windows ends up actually compromising usability. Also, tablet devices running Microsoft's platform will be late arrivals and could have a hard time gaining traction as Apple and Android will be "more entrenched by then." Microsoft is expected to hold just 10.5 percent tablet market share in 2015.

In April, Gartner issued projections for the tablet market, but the industry has seen substantial change since then. The group had to remove future sales of WebOS tablets, revise projected sales of Android, QNX and MeeGo downward and add estimates for Microsoft.

Earlier this week, it was reported that, during a presentation, Gartner had described Apple's iPad as an "unstoppable train" in the enterprise. Apple is expected to especially benefit from a new trend among business of "bring your own devices" policies.

These reports are completely useless. So, RIM will sell 26,123,000 PlayBooks in 2015? Yeah, that sounds reasonable. (And I love the pretense of accuracy, too -- 5 significant digits!) The way things are going for RIM, I'd be surprised if they're even around in 4 years. What a joke.
post #5 of 19
They have about the same chance of predicting the weather in 2014.
post #6 of 19
Gartner's rosy future expectations for Android ignore the legal nightmares encroaching upon the platform. If not outright banned by a worldwide injunction, Android will become one of the most EXPENSIVE licenses when Oracle, Microsoft, Apple, oh yes, and Gemalto get done with it.
post #7 of 19
Gartner says, in 2011, the year the iPad 2 was launched, Apple's marketshare of the tablet market DROPPED 10% from 83% to 73%? And then will continue on a deep slide to 46% over the next 3 years? This is total nonsense.

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post #8 of 19
At least they can make the predictions more credible by rounding to the nearest ten thousand rather than one thousand. I mean, come on. They're predicting 3 years out and can narrow their predicted numbers to thousands of units?.....with ALL platforms?

Why does Apple bashing and trolling make people feel so good?

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post #9 of 19
:-) he is useless
post #10 of 19
Sorry, but Gartner has shown again and again that they are a complete joke. Even stupider are the companies that actually buy access to their `research'.

What I was wondering that, if RIM has only shipped (not even sold) 200k tablets last quarter, how on earth are they going to sell 3 million in 2011?

And what exactly makes up the 34 million 'media tablets' under the Microsoft 'OS' that will be sold in 2015? Microsoft's ideas are:
- Win8 + Metro and old Win GUI on x86 hardware (OEM based)
- Win8 + Metro on ARM hardware (no idea of any product yet)
- Win Phone 7 + Metro on a Microsoft branded phone

Given that the last ones are not tablets but phones, and the first ones according to Microsoft are laptops with the possibility to run Metro touch interface programs (and thus not 'media tablets'), it means that a non-existing product based on a non-release OS will sell in 2015 a 34.435 million number of systems?

Recall Gartner's smartphone predictions about a rosy future for Microsoft and Nokia a few years ago? This while any basic intelligence would at that time already recognize them as the burning platforms they were?

Again: completely non-existing hardware in combination with a yet unreleased OS that will almost certainly not be here a year from now, will sell the precise amount of 34.435 million in 2015, three years later? It is hard to choose between laughing my ass off and being very sad about the fact that a lot of people take this seriously.

A good prediction would simply say "impossible to predict" for the QNX and Microsoft entries.
BTW, yes, HP shipped 2 million WebOS machines this year. But let's be fair, as part of the competition with Apple and Android, none were sold, they were dumped. That is not "market share" because they never captured any share. They should be in a separate category: "failed media tablets".
post #11 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by GotWake View Post

They have about the same chance of predicting the weather in 2014.

There will be periods of sun, rain, hail, sleet or snow with various levels of wind, some tropical storms and the temperature will range from below freezing to quite hot (over 34.52 degrees centigrade)!
post #12 of 19
What magic event is supposed to happen in 2014 that will lead to all those android sales? Is that when economies of smallness will kick in for android?
post #13 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by OttawaSwede View Post

These reports are completely useless. So, RIM will sell 26,123,000 PlayBooks in 2015? Yeah, that sounds reasonable. (And I love the pretense of accuracy, too -- 5 significant digits!) The way things are going for RIM, I'd be surprised if they're even around in 4 years. What a joke.


The entire thing is obviously wrong.

11 million non-iPad tablets sold in 2011? Where are those coming from? Reported numbers from the main vendors are far, far below that figure. Heck, the only tablet that has apparently sold in significant numbers is the TouchPad and that appears to be in the 500,000 range (which will not be repeated in 2012). IIRC, the highest reported sales figure for anyone else was around 200,000.

Gartner is dreaming. Of course, the fact that Gartner has hardly EVER been right in the past means that anyone who believes them deserves what they get.



Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

“So far, Android’s appeal in the tablet market has been constrained by high prices, weak user interface and limited tablet applications,” Milanesi said. “Google will address the fragmentation of Android across smartphone and tablet form factors within the next Android release, known as ‘Ice Cream Sandwich,’ which we expect to see in the fourth quarter of 2011. Android can count on strong support from key OEMs, has a sizeable developer community, and its smartphones application ecosystem is second only to Apple’s.”

You have to love this. Android suffers from fragmentation so the way that it will be addressed is by releasing yet another incompatible system to add to the mix. ROTFLMAO.

Strong support from OEMs? Well, that was true before Google skewered them all by buying Motorola. It also fails to consider the impact of all the lawsuits surrounding Android which could conceivably take it off the market (Oracle) or simply make it too expensive for Google to give away free. At the very least, the purchase of Motorola will increase the fragmentation rather than decrease it - look at Amazon's tablet which uses a fork of Android. There will undoubtedly be more forks, as well (I think one of the Chinese companies has also forked Android).

Unless Google changes their business plan significantly, Android's fragmentation is going to get far worse long before it gets better.
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
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"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
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post #14 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by AdyB View Post

There will be periods of sun, rain, hail, sleet or snow with various levels of wind, some tropical storms and the temperature will range from below freezing to quite hot (over 34.52 degrees centigrade)!

Yes, but you can only do that because you're not an analyst. Analysts by law are required to get everything wrong - or at least that's the way it seems from reading their past projections.
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
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"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
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post #15 of 19
Apple has pulled the Gilllette ---almost a reverse Gillette.


Here is what I mean.

Warren Buffett owns a large amount of Gillette (the men's shaving razor company), when asked why, he replied that he loved the fact that millions if not billions of men woke up just like him and have to shave. Where Gillette is genius is in marketing. They sell you a razor with 3 blades and you have to buy those blades to fit that razor, ergo a constant revenue stream and a "locking up of" consumers. They then have the next razor already developed and in this example it is the 4 blade razor. When the three blade sales start to dip, perhaps new competition, cost undercutting, etc.---they roll out the four blade razor, pump it with a massive ad campaign, get men out there to think that "yeah, 4 blades will give me a lot better shave" and start the cycle of locking you into their blade system. This is actually called the Razor Blade Model.

Apple is the same way---maybe even better at. Think of it this way; you're a kid, all you want is what the other kids have and that is an ipod touch---you don't need a phone yet, just a device to shut you up in the back seat. Your parents are nice, they load it up with some apps and away you go. Next you're in line for a phone---well you have all of these apps already on your ipod, why not put them on your iphone instead of going with a droid and paying for apps all over again. You've been using itunes, because your parents did, you work in Macs and iPads in school, you get a hand me down iPad form a parent---boom--move the app onto that etc.

Apple has everything you want on multiple devices and screens covered in your life. They are made better than anything out there, they play together than anything out there, and they simply work---3 big things people want.

I don't see them dipping below 75% market share for a long, long time.....

And no I am not a fan boy. I try anything that comes out. I just haven't found anything better that fills MY needs.
post #16 of 19
1) QNX based tablets will not exist in 2013, let alone 2014. Maybe not even at all in 2012.
2) Android will continue to be a niche tablet, as the question "why get this instead of an iPad" will become increasingly asked by consumers. Let alone he legal issues hanging over it.

In fact, WebOS could see some penetration if HP licenses it. All of the Android device makers will offer it. But even that will be incidental. My prediction: Apple will control 90+% of the tablet market in 2013/14.
post #17 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by dphayes77 View Post

Apple has pulled the Gilllette ---almost a reverse Gillette.


Here is what I mean.

Warren Buffett owns a large amount of Gillette (the men's shaving razor company),

Warren Buffet owns no Gillette stock. Not one single share. Gillette is a brand name owned by Proctor and Gamble.

Your statement is like saying that a particular hedge fund owns a large amount of iPad.

Quote:
Originally Posted by dphayes77 View Post

They then have the next razor already developed and in this example it is the 4 blade razor. When the three blade sales start to dip, perhaps new competition, cost undercutting, etc.---they roll out the four blade razor,

Gillette has never made a 4 blade razor.
post #18 of 19
For once I'd say this is wrong, Apple are going to retain 70% market share for years. The only way it would fall is if the tablet suddenly becomes something the enterprise market really really wants, in which case Microsoft will succeed.

I don't see Android going anywhere on tablets. The consumer market is owned by Apple because consumers don't really want a tablet, they want an iPad. The same as consumers didn't really want a portable music player but they did want an iPod. Consumers arn't going to be buying iPads because they need a tablet and choose the iPad as the best, they buy it because after seeing it in tv ad's every week for 16 months, they really want it.

Once Windows 8 on ARM tablets is out, why would any enterprise want an Android tablet? There IT skills are in Microsoft and if it was up to the user, they'd choose an iPad, so how would any of them end up with Android.
post #19 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by ConradJoe View Post

Warren Buffet owns no Gillette stock. Not one single share. Gillette is a brand name owned by Proctor and Gamble.

Buffet used to own a huge amount of Gillette until it was bought by P&G. Now he owns 2.7% of P&G.

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