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Rumor: Apple reduces iPad 2 orders by 25%, could drop price

post #1 of 105
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A pair of new reports have indicated that Apple is seeing less demand for the iPad 2, prompting the company to slash orders by 25 percent and potentially enact a price cut.

In a report issues to investors this week, JPMorgan Chase & Co. indicated that Apple has cut fourth-quarter iPad orders from its overseas supply chain by 25 percent, according to Bloomberg. Sources in the supply chain said the cut was enacted in the last two weeks, and it is the first such one from Apple they have ever seen.

Apple was originally expected to order 17 million units in the fourth quarter of calendar 2011, but that number could now drop to 13 million units, the report said. It was suggested that reduced orders could reflect weakening demand in Europe.

The claims from JPMorgan come as a separate report from DigiTimes also made mention of a "slowdown in global demand" prompting Apple to follow a market shift toward lower prices. It cited "market rumors" in claiming Apple plans to cut the price of the iPad 2.

Such changes would come as a surprise, as iPad sales for Apple have continued to increase, reaching a record 9.25 million units last quarter. JPMorgan analyst Mark Moskowitz still expects Apple to sell 10.9 million iPad units this quarter, and 12 million during the holiday quarter.

Moskowitz said in a note to investors earlier this month that Apple already has prototypes for a third-generation iPad in its supply chain. But he doesn't expect Apple to introduce such a model before 2012, as competitors have struggled to gain traction against the iPad.



Research from IDC has found that the iPad 2 actually took away market share from Android tablets shipped in the second quarter of calendar 2011. Apple represented 68.3 percent of the market, growing its share as Android dropped to 26.8 percent of shipped hardware.

Moskowitz also said last week that he sees Apple releasing a new low-cost iPhone, dubbed an iPhone "4-plus," this year to target midrange smartphone buyers, particularly in emerging markets like China. That aligns with the "market rumors" cited by DigiTimes on Monday, which suggested that a lower-priced iPad 2 would be joined by a new, cheaper entry-level iPhone from Apple.
post #2 of 105
There is something deeply fishy with these reports.

A Shift from 17 to 13 million is a huge alteration -- and not the kind of screw-up we've ever seen from Tim Cook. I can only imagine two possible explanations:

1. the report is complete BS spread by someone selling AAPL short.
2. they actually will update the iPad this quarter... something I highly doubt (they rarely deviate from their product release cycle that much, and would gain little as the iPad 2 is still selling well).
post #3 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by iCarbon View Post

There is something deeply fishy with these reports.

A Shift from 17 to 13 million is a huge alteration -- and not the kind of screw-up we've ever seen from Tim Cook. I can only imagine two possible explanations:

1. the report is complete BS spread by someone selling AAPL short.
2. they actually will update the iPad this quarter... something I highly doubt (they rarely deviate from their product release cycle that much, and would gain little as the iPad 2 is still selling well).

I concur with both your assessments.
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post #4 of 105
I'll try to find the related mention from a few days ago where some other (financial?) group said there were some signs that overall tablet demand may be falling. Way too soon to say so definitively IMO, or to determine why if it's true. Perhaps this is the "3rd quarter warning" that Apple mentioned in it's last financial call?
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post #5 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by iCarbon View Post

There is something deeply fishy with these reports.

A Shift from 17 to 13 million is a huge alteration -- and not the kind of screw-up we've ever seen from Tim Cook. I can only imagine two possible explanations:

1. the report is complete BS spread by someone selling AAPL short.
2. they actually will update the iPad this quarter... something I highly doubt (they rarely deviate from their product release cycle that much, and would gain little as the iPad 2 is still selling well).

Remember this from a few years ago-

http://www.businessinsider.com/2008/...-analyst-aapl-

"Apple has cut its calendar Q4 iPhone production plans significantly more than originally estimated, according to a report by Friedman Billings Ramsey analyst Craig Berger."

Apple released the iPhone 4 soon after. Apple is getting ready to into the iPad 3.
post #6 of 105
I agree, the report sounds a little fishy.... However, I have noticed that supply is definitely up on the iPad2. Most stores around here have a good supply of all models. That has not been the case until recently...

Of course, I bought the wife a Verizon 3G 64Gb model last weekend (22nd anniversary)... ( Worked better than jewelry... )
post #7 of 105
IPad 3 is on its way.
post #8 of 105
I think the report is either false and an attempt to make AAPL drop a few points before the iPhone announcement, or true, indicating a new iPad in the coming months.

With Apple aggressively expanding into Asian markets I don't see this being a case of lower demand.
post #9 of 105
Well it kind of makes sense, about 6 months after release you would think supply has met initial demand. Apple will have to come up with ways to make people upgrade as they will be competing against their former models like they faced with the iPod which was a lot cheaper purchase.
post #10 of 105
If the price is really going down, I imagine it is because they know I recently bought one.
post #11 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by sranger View Post

I agree, the report sounds a little fishy.... However, I have noticed that supply is definitely up on the iPad2. Most stores around here have a good supply of all models. That has not been the case until recently... )

Is that supply considered shipped or sold?
post #12 of 105
I smell bullshit.
This is a last chance attempt to get cheap AAPL. Simple as.

Don't be fooled.
post #13 of 105
demand could be down because Europe is massively depressed at the moment - the economic reality is hitting home. Apple will bounce back in 4Q. In any case the 17M orders were clearly top of the range for Apple, and 13M is still high.
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post #14 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by iCarbon View Post

There is something deeply fishy with these reports.

A Shift from 17 to 13 million is a huge alteration -- and not the kind of screw-up we've ever seen from Tim Cook. I can only imagine two possible explanations:

1. the report is complete BS spread by someone selling AAPL short.
2. they actually will update the iPad this quarter... something I highly doubt (they rarely deviate from their product release cycle that much, and would gain little as the iPad 2 is still selling well).

Read the Reuters Link:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...7JM02Q20110926

Excerpt:

Quote:
TAIPEI, Sept 26 (Reuters) - Taiwan stocks ended 2.4 percent
lower on Monday, with Apple Inc plays as well as
smartphone maker HTC tumbling.\t
The main TAIEX index fell 169.10 points to 6,877.12,
after opening down 0.28 percent.\t
Electronics shares shed 2.5 percent, with Apple
supplier and touch panel maker TPK Holding down 6.67
percent, and touchscreen panel maker Wintek and camera
module maker Largan Precision limit-down.\t
HTC shed 6.04 percent. Computer maker Quanta
however rebounded 3.95 percent, recovering from last week's
loss. \t

Financial shares were down 2.36 percent.\t
The Taiwan dollar weakened 0.59 percent to
T$30.566.


It's clear that they are interpreting a downsize in demand because certain suppliers are reporting reduced forecasts. They should catch on sooner, rather than later that Apple is expanding it's contracts to other suppliers, yet announced.
post #15 of 105
They must have rushed to get this out. They misspelled "Appel"
post #16 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by iCarbon View Post

There is something deeply fishy with these reports.

A Shift from 17 to 13 million is a huge alteration -- and not the kind of screw-up we've ever seen from Tim Cook. I can only imagine two possible explanations:

1. the report is complete BS spread by someone selling AAPL short.
2. they actually will update the iPad this quarter... something I highly doubt (they rarely deviate from their product release cycle that much, and would gain little as the iPad 2 is still selling well).


It's #1. Look at this:

Quote:
Apple was originally expected to order 17 million units in the fourth quarter of calendar 2011, but that number could now drop to 13 million units, the report said.

Expected....by whom?
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I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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post #17 of 105
Stock pump and dump.
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of a rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of a rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #18 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Apple was originally expected to order 17 million units in the fourth quarter of calendar 2011, but that number could now drop to 13 million units, the report said. It was suggested that reduced orders could reflect weakening demand in Europe.

Total BS. This is just like what happened earlier this year. Some idiot analyst made up numbers for the first calendar quarter that were blatantly absurd. Their projections were that Apple would sell as many iPads in the first (calendar) quarter as they did in the Christmas quarter. Then, when Apple failed to sell that number, everyone was screaming about how demand for the iPad was way off.

I'm sure the analyst doesn't have any idea how many iPads Apple was projection for the coming quarter. They're trying to cover their butts. They made up a ridiculous figure and are now trying to come up with a way to backpedal - without admitting that he pulled the numbers out of his butt.
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
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"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
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post #19 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by EmperorsNewClothes View Post

IPad 3 is on its way.

Yes.
Next year.

A6 can't be produced in volume before Q1.

TSMC 28nm revenue in Q4 is less then 3%. That is not enough to produce enough A6/AMD graphic cards/Nvidia graphic cards.

There is also not enough Retina displays.

BTW. The screen is the most expensive part on the iPad. An educated guess is that a retina display will be much more expensive. 4 times the pixels.
post #20 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland View Post

Stock pump and dump.

How do you pump a stock by saying that their sales are declining?
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post #21 of 105
More like pressures from Amazon could lead to a price drop, but I doubt they would devalue their product like that. It isn't that the iPad will sell LESS than the Kindle Tablet by any stretch of the imagination, it's that the Kindle Tablet will take away from the flame of the iPad. People are much more inclined to buy someone a $250 present than a $500 present. Personally, I haven't touched my iPad 2 in over 2 months; I'm hoping iOS 5 changes this.
post #22 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by iCarbon View Post

There is something deeply fishy with these reports.

A Shift from 17 to 13 million is a huge alteration -- and not the kind of screw-up we've ever seen from Tim Cook. I can only imagine two possible explanations:

1. the report is complete BS spread by someone selling AAPL short.
2. they actually will update the iPad this quarter... something I highly doubt (they rarely deviate from their product release cycle that much, and would gain little as the iPad 2 is still selling well).

I agree with both. One thought on #2, though -- there is something to be said for going for the jugular in the tablet market. Suppose Apple introduces an iPad 3 (or 2+) and cuts the price of the iPad 2 (Similar to what we expect with iPhone 5/4S and a discounted 4). That could put another big nail in the coffins of the competition.

Also, there's reason #3 --- Europe is going straight to hell (economically speaking). Apple might be seeing or anticipating soft demand from that.
post #23 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland View Post

Stock pump and dump.

Exactly.
All year they have done this.

Q1:
Ipad 2 is late.
Steve jobs will die within 3 weeks
Jonathan Ive will move to UK

Q2
Less iPhone/Ipad demand
Earthquake in japan stops production of iPhone/ipad motherboards
FoxConn plant explode. iPad can be produced.
Apple has to pay billions to Nokia for patents
Imac delays

This is how they have managed to value Apple 1/4 then what they did 2008.

2008 = P/E 60
2011 = P/E 17 (trailing P/E 12. With money P/E 9)

P/E about 12 is stupid for a company that have grown 63% average last five years. APPL have beat expectations last 28 quarter in a row.

90% of Apple users does not plan of change brand on their products. Every 12-36 month these people upgrade their phones and computers. Apple just need to convince a couple of percent per year to switch to Apple product to continue their mad growth.

Apple long term is another thing. Steve is like nobody else. I wish that Ive had been the new CEO.
post #24 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by ErosLWS View Post

... I haven't touched my iPad 2 in over 2 months; I'm hoping iOS 5 changes this.

...and I use my first generation iPad every day, making it one of the most useful tools that I have ever owned. Don't need iOS 5 for that.
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post #25 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by kevinh View Post

Remember this from a few years ago-

http://www.businessinsider.com/2008/...-analyst-aapl-

"Apple has cut its calendar Q4 iPhone production plans significantly more than originally estimated, according to a report by Friedman Billings Ramsey analyst Craig Berger."

Apple released the iPhone 4 soon after. Apple is getting ready to into the iPad 3.

Apple introduced the iPhone in early 2007 and released it in mid 2007, in 2008 it released the iPhone 3G, then in 2009 it released the iPhone 3GS and in 2010 it released the iPhone 4.
All those releases happened mid year and NOT short after the fourth calendar quarter, which would be the beginning of the next year.

Or is this just SPAM?
post #26 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by iCarbon View Post

There is something deeply fishy with these reports.

A Shift from 17 to 13 million is a huge alteration -- and not the kind of screw-up we've ever seen from Tim Cook. I can only imagine two possible explanations:

1. the report is complete BS spread by someone selling AAPL short.
2. they actually will update the iPad this quarter... something I highly doubt (they rarely deviate from their product release cycle that much, and would gain little as the iPad 2 is still selling well).

Calling out BS on this report as well(!)

At some point in time this stuff is gonna have to be regulated and the stock-manipulators caught and sentenced. Regardless of Apple, this kind of BS is ruining the financial markets and trust world wide.
Knowing what you are talking about would help you understand why you are so wrong. By "Realistic" - AI Forum Member
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Knowing what you are talking about would help you understand why you are so wrong. By "Realistic" - AI Forum Member
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post #27 of 105
My belief is that they may be bringing on new suppliers. However, the world economic outlook is pretty grim, Apple with their supply chain expertise would be the first to shut down any potential exposure.

They may be seeing their inventory rise above x days. they don't want to be left with a few millions tabs when the next one comes along.

Disclosure: I hold no stock and am basically thinking aloud.
post #28 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThePixelDoc View Post

Calling out BS on this report as well(!)

At some point in time this stuff is gonna have to be regulated and the stock-manipulators caught and sentenced. Regardless of Apple, this kind of BS is ruining the financial markets and trust world wide.

These kind of reporting have already been investigated recently (insider). Nothing came out of it. These guys (and the banks) are way to powerful.

I do think people should be cautious when it comes to AAPL at this point, if global economy slows down further (especially in China), demand for both iPad and iPhone could slow.
post #29 of 105
... for Apple to add multiple users to the iPad.

Was hoping I'd finally see it with iOS 5 but I have my doubts.

Need to be able to log in and check my email, calendar, address book, iTunes playlists and Safari bookmarks and my wife needs to be able to do the same when she uses it. Same for guests.
post #30 of 105
The upcoming Amazon tablet is diluting the market. Apple needs to assess the fallout.
post #31 of 105
This is an adjustment indicating the iPad 3 is close to being released. Given the initial shortages of the iPad 2, and delays in the retina display for the iPad 3, this is not that surprising (though for many analysts who never get things right to begin with, it is surprising).
post #32 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by ErosLWS View Post

Personally, I haven't touched my iPad 2 in over 2 months; I'm hoping iOS 5 changes this.

I barely use mine at all, in fact only on saturdays...

...because M-F my wife has it. I only get it saturday 'cause i tech an early morning class that day and I can leave with it while she is still asleep.

Feel free to send yours to me. I will give it a good home where it is loved.
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post #33 of 105
Gosh, missed this from mid-August: Apple supposedly dumping LG and turning to Samsung (and CMI) for remaining iPad2 display needs? LG reportedly having too many quality issues.

http://www.itproportal.com/2011/08/1...isplay-issues/
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post #34 of 105
It doesn't make sense to me. Why would Apple cut the price of their iPad AND lower the number of units being produced That feels like a sellout?

I think iOS 5 will make the iPad sexy again. It will make the Post PC era truly happen (there will be no need to connect your iPad/iPhone/iPod (touch) to a computer ever again. Having said that, I am looking forward to the new iPod concepts.
post #35 of 105
I don't think Apple has ever set prices based on demand. Or the presence of cheap, inferior alternatives.
post #36 of 105
If this report is actually true, couldn't they simply be winding down production of the iPad 2 because they have enough supply to get them through the holidays? They wouldn't want to end up with ten million unsold iPad 2's when they launch the iPad 3 early next year, after all.
post #37 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by IQatEdo View Post

...and I use my first generation iPad every day, making it one of the most useful tools that I have ever owned. Don't need iOS 5 for that.

What exactly do you do on it that is intrinsically easier than on your Macbook, AppleTV, and iPod? (I mention those three because I own them.)

I've found surfing the web is easier, it feels natural, but if I'm running SPSS and Excel on my Mac, I'm already on the computer so convenience defeats ease of use. My favorite thing is to use the iPad as a vacation device; it's great to take with me on a plane and into a hotel. Once there, I can transfer all my images to my iPad from my DSLR whenever I get back to the hotel from a trip out. This is where I see iOS 5 being unbelievably useful. And yes, gaming is pretty kick ass on the iPad but I um....prefer getting out; why play a snowboarding game when you can actually snowboard? Why play an FPS when you can actually go out to a range or go hunting?

I guess my problem is with people claiming it's some magical productivity device. It's a luxury item or an adult toy, and a pretty good one at that. I am happy with my investment, I just have other priorities.
post #38 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by mr O View Post

It doesn't make sense to me. Why would Apple cut the price of their iPad AND lower the number of units being produced That feels like a sellout?

I think iOS 5 will make the iPad sexy again. It will make the Post PC era truly happen (there will be no need to connect your iPad/iPhone/iPod (touch) to a computer ever again. Having said that, I am looking forward to the new iPod concepts.

Where do you see the iPad 2 with a price cut?
post #39 of 105
Amazes me people think reports like this couldn't possibly credible. Europe is turmoil with consumer confidence falling through the floor. Do you think when people are worrying about debt, job security and making ends meet they are going to continue blowing money on high-end luxury products like the iPad and iPhone? The US is in awful shape too with consumers also feeling the pinch and confidence way down. So many people are cutting back on their spending, I believe it's impossible for Apple not take a hit from all this turmoil.

Anyone buying or holding onto Apple shares at current prices is a hell of lot braver than I am.
post #40 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by drobforever View Post

These kind of reporting have already been investigated recently (insider). Nothing came out of it. These guys (and the banks) are way to powerful.

I do think people should be cautious when it comes to AAPL at this point, if global economy slows down further (especially in China), demand for both iPad and iPhone could slow.

They've been talking down Apple since 2006. It's beat every estimate including the absurdly bullish ones.

Sorry, but quality is actually getting the lion's share of the profits in this new world versus the old race to the bottom PC world.
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