or Connect
AppleInsider › Forums › Mobile › iPad › Reduced iPad 2 orders from Apple viewed as a non-issue
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

Reduced iPad 2 orders from Apple viewed as a non-issue

post #1 of 36
Thread Starter 
A second report on Monday also cited sources in Apple's supply chain as saying that the company has apparently reduced orders for the iPad 2. But those claims from the Far East have not created concern for one Wall Street analyst, who believes demand for the iPad 2 remains while production may simply have been moved elsewhere.

Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said Monday that he too has heard from Apple's supply chain that iPad 2 orders for the rest of 2011 have been reduced. However, he doesn't necessarily see that as an indication that Apple is experiencing reduced demand for its touchscreen tablet.

"While we have heard chatter of supply chain order reductions, the absolute sell-in figures for (the second half of calendar year 2011) likely remain well above our estimates," he wrote in a note to investors.

"We also note that previous calls based on sell-in or supply chain data have, for the most part, proven to have very little correlation with Apple's results vs. consensus dating back to early iPod shipments (2003)."

The analyst believes that Apple deliberately has multiple suppliers and manufacturing partners, which makes it difficult for industry watchers to draw conclusions based on one data point. He noted that Apple plans to assemble iPad units in Brazil by the end of this year, a transition that could explain reduced orders from the Far East.



Munster has maintained his forecast of 10 million iPad units sold in the September quarter, increasing to 12 million in the December quarter. Both would be new highs for Apple, besting the company's previous record of 9.25 million units.

Munster's details from his own supply chain sources come on the heels of a separate claim from JP Morgan Chase & Co., which indicated that Apple has allegedly reduced iPad 2 orders by 25 percent. The cut was said to have been enacted in the last two weeks, and would be the first reduction in orders that supply chain sources have seen for Apple's touchscreen tablet.
post #2 of 36
I'd agree with Munster on this one. I have no doubt iPad2 sales (or iPad3) will continue to outpace predictions whatever these reports some think they have dug up on manufacturing numbers to prove otherwise.
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini, SE30, IIFx, Towers; G4 & G3.
Reply
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini, SE30, IIFx, Towers; G4 & G3.
Reply
post #3 of 36
Guessed it was Munster before even opened article.
post #4 of 36
Would be interesting if the whole thing ends up being about Brazil.

I wonder if the Brazil facility will produce only for Brazil or if it will produce for all of South America, or perhaps even for both NA and SA....
post #5 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post

Would be interesting if the whole thing ends up being about Brazil.

I wonder if the Brazil facility will produce only for Brazil or if it will produce for all of South America, or perhaps even for both NA and SA....

I've read that the combination of Brazil's high import taxes, advantageous export taxes to other Latin American countries, and the fact that Brazil represents fully half the Latin American market all make Brazilian manufacturing a natural to serve the SA market. Not sure about NA.
They spoke of the sayings and doings of their commander, the grand duke, and told stories of his kindness and irascibility.
Reply
They spoke of the sayings and doings of their commander, the grand duke, and told stories of his kindness and irascibility.
Reply
post #6 of 36
it might very well be to compensate for the start of production of the Foxxcon plant in Brazil . Again today a big bank feeds a scary outlook on a company, stock is sold heavily before bouncing back mid day. Volatility is the single most efficient factor for market makers to make money. Bottom line (in case you're a slow learner): NEVER trust a banker.
post #7 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

I'd agree with Munster on this one. I have no doubt iPad2 sales (or iPad3) will continue to outpace predictions whatever these reports some think they have dug up on manufacturing numbers to prove otherwise.

I don't agree with him...

10 million for this current quarter and 15 million for the holiday quarter.
na na na na na...
Reply
na na na na na...
Reply
post #8 of 36
Didn't Moskowitz last week raised the target price on Apple last week and today this non-sense? What a bunch of BS? Why do some of this analyst think everyone operates like a daily trader? I am sure Apple doesn't made random changes. Maybe someone was right - JPM was pumping last week and not putting in a scare to get the price lower so that they can acquire more - Bastards!
post #9 of 36
Apple will sell more iPad2's this holiday quarter than in any other previous quarter.
post #10 of 36
Apple may shift, fine tune its orders volumes between the suppliers! The rumors are a fact of life! Nothing new here! To me it smells like stock price manipulation yet again!

Of course some folks will call the above statements as Fan Boy stuff...

The real AAPL investors already know all of the above!!!

Go  Apple!!!

Reply

Go  Apple!!!

Reply
post #11 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

I don't agree with him...

10 million for this current quarter and 15 million for the holiday quarter.

I agree with you!

Of course it's Brazil and supply chain management that means nothing toward the end sakes results. And if you read the "reports" and "news" it's all hear say.

So right before an expected jump in AAPL a scare is induced so that some people can buy in lower...

The iPad 2 is addictive and s/he who tries one never goes back and sells it to friends and relatives.

Apple is on the verge of a sales explosion in China, India, Russia and Latin America both with the iPad and a cheaper iPhone together with the iPhone 5.

The iPhone is outdoing&killing game consoles, the next victim will be point-and-shoot cameras.

Believe you me, when the iPhone and/or the iPad start showing signs of peaking, that's surely when Apple will put out the 40"-50" line of Apple HDTV (which will be like a mix between a giant iPad and iMac, remotely controlled via iPhone or iPad).

This kind of management is the reason why Apple has taken so long coming out with a 2nd iPhone model. It's all about keeping the Apple machine at its optimum yeld/efficiency. And I'm pretty sure Cook is a master at that!
post #12 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by radster360 View Post

Didn't Moskowitz last week raised the target price on Apple last week and today this non-sense? What a bunch of BS? Why do some of this analyst think everyone operates like a daily trader? I am sure Apple doesn't made random changes. Maybe someone was right - JPM was pumping last week and not putting in a scare to get the price lower so that they can acquire more - Bastards!

Just the normal pps losers .
post #13 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

I don't agree with him...

10 million for this current quarter and 15 million for the holiday quarter.

Ok ... amended ... =/> Munster
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini, SE30, IIFx, Towers; G4 & G3.
Reply
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini, SE30, IIFx, Towers; G4 & G3.
Reply
post #14 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by hholbein View Post

Bottom line (in case you're a slow learner): NEVER trust a banker.

Most poignant point seen in a long while, hholbein.

Be self-reliant. A banker’s job is not to make you money; the market does that. Regardless, all money managers lay claim to safe and assured but your returns are diminished by their cut which is taken first, regardless your portfolio’s performance.

Spend the time to be informed and don’t be in a rush.
Know the histories of a group of stocks & investments.
Know the markets, the times, the seasons, the patterns.

But foremost, heed hholbein's advice. Never, never sit back and trust anyone to manage your money. Once you are out of the chair, your are out-of-mind. You must continue to be: informed, involved, incharge.

And read hholbein again, right now.

When I find time to rewrite the laws of Physics, there'll Finally be some changes made round here!

I am not crazy! Three out of five court appointed psychiatrists said so.

Reply

When I find time to rewrite the laws of Physics, there'll Finally be some changes made round here!

I am not crazy! Three out of five court appointed psychiatrists said so.

Reply
post #15 of 36
What is happening is that Apple is anticipating the release and subsequent popularity of the impending Amazon tablet. Since Apple has a nimble and efficient supply chain, they are phasing out the iPad 2 and are quickly starting the assembly lines on the iPad 3 (hello new factory in Brazil; picture the Brazilian assembly line workers doing the samba as they work).

Do you think they didn't know exactly when Amazon would release their tablet? And do you think it's coincidence that iPad sales are "slowing down" before the lucrative holiday season?

You heard it here: iPad 3 this year.
post #16 of 36
Investment bankers don't like buying at high prices so from time to time they put a negative spin on news and lo and behold the stock goes down, when they have whatever positions they want...
They issue an updated note.

Just wait and see.
post #17 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by macinthe408 View Post

What is happening is that Apple is anticipating the release and subsequent popularity of the impending Amazon tablet. Since Apple has a nimble and efficient supply chain, they are phasing out the iPad 2 and are quickly starting the assembly lines on the iPad 3 (hello new factory in Brazil; picture the Brazilian assembly line workers doing the samba as they work).

Do you think they didn't know exactly when Amazon would release their tablet? And do you think it's coincidence that iPad sales are "slowing down" before the lucrative holiday season?

You heard it here: iPad 3 this year.

Respectfully, I disagree, for a couple of reasons.

1. The Amazon tablet due this year won't directly compete with the iPad. It's a different form factor, more akin to the Nook. They won't need to bump the iPad version until next year.

2. This "slowdown" is because Apple finally caught up with the increasing demand, and exceeded it. They now have they luxury of idlng some capacity and holding it in reserve in case the new production capacity in Brazil can't handle the holiday season demand. This will be revealed in a few weeks when they disclose iPad sales for their 4th fiscal quarter that completely blow away expectations.
post #18 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by macinthe408 View Post

What is happening is that Apple is anticipating the release and subsequent popularity of the impending Amazon tablet. Since Apple has a nimble and efficient supply chain, they are phasing out the iPad 2 and are quickly starting the assembly lines on the iPad 3 (hello new factory in Brazil; picture the Brazilian assembly line workers doing the samba as they work).

Do you think they didn't know exactly when Amazon would release their tablet? And do you think it's coincidence that iPad sales are "slowing down" before the lucrative holiday season?

You heard it here: iPad 3 this year.

I disagree. iPad 2 is more than capable of rounding out a huge holiday quarter. iPad 3 will be held until next year. And then plenty of iPad 2s will hit ebay and people will trade up for a 3.

I don't see Amazon delivering a significant competitor with their first tablet. They have pieces others lack, but they aren't perfect. I find their web site confusing, cluttered, and user-unfriendly.

I haven't seen anyone comment on Amazon skipping the phone market and going straight to tablets.
post #19 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by walshbj View Post

I disagree. iPad 2 is more than capable of rounding out a huge holiday quarter. iPad 3 will be held until next year.

We know this. You don't need to argue it against anyone. Anyone banking on iPad 3 this year is going to be wrong. I do expect a price drop to $399 though. That would be smart.
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
Reply
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
Reply
post #20 of 36
I don't know what this means honestly and neither does anyone else accept for those inside of Apple.
post #21 of 36
Perhaps someone more familiar with Apple and its product cycles can comment on a question:

It appears Apple is ready to launch it's new iphone 5 in October and announce other products - I don't know how the company calculates potential demand but - if there has been a reduction in orders for the ipad from Asian factories, could it have something to do with the company factoring in expected orders for iphone 5 (and other new products) in the near future? I.E. They don't expect to sell a new ipad AND iphone to the same customer - people will probably choose one or the other - at least for now.

Or have new iphone 5 sales already been, as they like to say on Wall Street, "baked in."

Just asking - I have no agenda here - am not trying to spread or create chatter/rumors. I am a big fan of AAPL and am a current owner of the stock - for full disclosure. Guess I'm just trying to stay informed.
post #22 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by dbcooper View Post

Perhaps someone more familiar with Apple and its product cycles can comment on a question:

It appears Apple is ready to launch it's new iphone 5 in October and announce other products - I don't know how the company calculates potential demand but - if there has been a reduction in orders for the ipad from Asian factories, could it have something to do with the company factoring in expected orders for iphone 5 (and other new products) in the near future? I.E. They don't expect to sell a new ipad AND iphone to the same customer - people will probably choose one or the other - at least for now.

Or have new iphone 5 sales already been, as they like to say on Wall Street, "baked in."

Not that I know anything, but as a philosopher, even if I knew nothing about Apple at all, I would have to ask you why you think people won't buy both?

In fact a large part of Apple's market appears to be the halo buyer. That is "I bought this phone, and what do you know I really like it. So much I am going to get the tablet the same company makes. May even use their laptop when i upgrade."

I would say they are more likely to sell both to the same customer rather than less. Always questions assumptions.
OSX, because making UNIX user friendly is easier than debugging windows.
Reply
OSX, because making UNIX user friendly is easier than debugging windows.
Reply
post #23 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

That is the best laugh I've had in ages. On par with the usual reporting (making stuff up I should say) from that source.

Yeah, like: "When retailers dropped the price of HP's TouchPad tablet from $399 as low as $99 following the news that the company would divest itself of the entire division, consumers went wild. HP was forced to resume manufacturing the gadget just to keep up with demand."

So...HP decided to divest itself of the division, but was forced to resume manufacturing, because...of course something terrible would happen if they didn't keep up with demand for their discontinued product, even if it meant losing money on every sale, even though the demand was only a result of the fact that they were selling them at a huge loss?
post #24 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland View Post

We know this. You don't need to argue it against anyone. Anyone banking on iPad 3 this year is going to be wrong. I do expect a price drop to $399 though. That would be smart.

Nah, no price drop. Come back and mock me if it happens. But there's no history to show it in the cards. Sets a bad precedent for cutting deep into margins. They didn't do it with iPods. Definitely won't do it in reaction to whatever Amazon comes out with.

They did drop the iPhone price in 2007 I think. But it was right after launch.
post #25 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by walshbj View Post

Nah, no price drop. Come back and mock me if it happens. But there's no history to show it in the cards.

That is what makes me a genius.
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
Reply
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
Reply
post #26 of 36
JP Morgan needs to be investigated by the SEC for stock manipulation, pure and simple.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply
post #27 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

JP Morgan needs to be investigated by the SEC for stock manipulation, pure and simple.

Deep and simple - Mister Rogers
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
Reply
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
Reply
post #28 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland View Post

That is what makes me a genius.

I would say a price reduction would result in stock-outs through January.

Either way, they'll fly off the shelves.
post #29 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by Retrogusto View Post

Yeah, like: "When retailers dropped the price of HP's TouchPad tablet from $399 as low as $99 following the news that the company would divest itself of the entire division, consumers went wild. HP was forced to resume manufacturing the gadget just to keep up with demand."

So...HP decided to divest itself of the division, but was forced to resume manufacturing, because...of course something terrible would happen if they didn't keep up with demand for their discontinued product, even if it meant losing money on every sale, even though the demand was only a result of the fact that they were selling them at a huge loss?

Some have speculated that the renewed manufacturing was a mid course correction which was financially logical for them, if only marginally beneficial. Since the tablets apparently would actually sell at $99 they calculated that the penalties they would have to pay out to contractors and suppliers due to not ordering as many as contractually obligated, could be partially offset by continuing to make and sell them for a short time.

Life is too short to drink bad coffee.

Reply

Life is too short to drink bad coffee.

Reply
post #30 of 36
One has to wonder if the supply chain source happens to be Samsung.
post #31 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Munster has maintained his forecast of 10 million iPad units sold in the September quarter, increasing to 12 million in the December quarter. Both would be new highs for Apple, besting the company's previous record of 9.25 million units.

Put those numbers in context.

The earlier report today claimed that Apple reduced estimates from 17 M to 15 M due to low demand. Since the 17 M figure is no where in any of Apple's projections, it was clearly the analyst's own estimate. But since they sold a record 9.25 M last Christmas quarter (in the first Christmas after the device came out), is it realistic to think that they were going to grow by nearly 100%?

Analysts are idiots. They make up any figures they want - no matter how ridiculous and then when they revise them, the make up some pseudo business reason for the change - rather than admit that they pulled the original number from their butts and needed to change it to something more realistic now that we're getting closer to everyone finding out how foolish they are.
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
Reply
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
Reply
post #32 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by macinthe408 View Post

What is happening is that Apple is anticipating the release and subsequent popularity of the impending Amazon tablet. Since Apple has a nimble and efficient supply chain, they are phasing out the iPad 2 and are quickly starting the assembly lines on the iPad 3 (hello new factory in Brazil; picture the Brazilian assembly line workers doing the samba as they work).

Do you think they didn't know exactly when Amazon would release their tablet? And do you think it's coincidence that iPad sales are "slowing down" before the lucrative holiday season?

You heard it here: iPad 3 this year.

Who is going to supply 28nm A class processors?
Who is going to supply retina displays?

Since no one can do this q4 2011, it is impossible for an Ipad3 this year.
post #33 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by shompa View Post

Who is going to supply 28nm A class processors?
Who is going to supply retina displays?

Since no one can do this q4 2011, it is impossible for an Ipad3 this year.

There isn't an iPad 3 this year... for the reasons you give and more.

Maybe a 2S... but that's even highly unlikely.
na na na na na...
Reply
na na na na na...
Reply
post #34 of 36
The "discussion" regarding Fox News has been moved to its own thread here. If you want to continue the mud-slinging, do it in PoliticalOutsider.

This thread is for discussion of the alleged reduction in iPad 2 manufacturing; please stay on topic.
it's = it is / it has, its = belonging to it.
Reply
it's = it is / it has, its = belonging to it.
Reply
post #35 of 36
This is what investment banks do BTW to drop the stock price for their clients. Great buying opportunity before AAPL announces earnings next month.
post #36 of 36
Nice headline Ai, but I'm guessing the market disagrees with you and Munster on this one.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...78P2KZ20110926
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: iPad
AppleInsider › Forums › Mobile › iPad › Reduced iPad 2 orders from Apple viewed as a non-issue