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Apple seen selling 4.63M Macs, 12M iPads in record quarter

post #1 of 21
Thread Starter 
With Apple's fourth quarter of fiscal 2011 drawing to a close, it is expected in a matter of weeks to report record sales of both its Mac and iPad product lineups.

Analyst Charlie Wolf with Needham Research said in a note to investors on Wednesday that he sees Apple reporting sales of 4.63 million Macs and 12 million iPads in its September quarter. Both of those would be records for the company, which topped off at 9.25 million iPads last quarter, and 4.1 million Macs last Christmas.

Wolf's Mac projections are up from his previous forecast of 4.4 million, despite a weak overall PC market. He cited surveys that indicate Mac sales in the September quarter were stronger than previously expected.

Domestic sales figures released by the NPD Group earlier this month showed Apple on pace to sell 4.5 million Macs in the September quarter. Based on the first two months of the quarter, Mac sales were up 22 percent year over year in the U.S.

He also expects sales of iPad units to end users to be around 9 million for the quarter, with total sales into the channel of 12 million, leaving Apple with three to four weeks of inventory in the channel. That would be a major improvement from what was effectively no weeks of inventory in the channel at the end of the June quarter.



As for iPhone sales, Wolf expects that Apple will report sales of about 17 million units. That would be a sequential decline from last quarter's record 20.34 million iPhones sold, as the analyst anticipates that subscribers will postpone purchases ahead of the anticipated fifth-generation iPhone launch.

Needham sees Apple reporting fourth-quarter earnings-per-share of $7.37, with total fiscal 2011 EPS of $28. For 2012, the firm expects EPS of $33. It has maintained a price target of $540 for AAPL stock.
post #2 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

With Apple's fourth quarter of fiscal 2011 drawing to a close, it is expected in a matter of weeks to report record sales of both its Mac and iPad product lineups.

Analyst Charlie Wolf with Needham Research said in a note to investors on Wednesday that he sees Apple reporting sales of 4.63 million Macs and 12 million iPads in its September quarter. Both of those would be records for the company, which topped off at 9.25 million iPads last quarter, and 4.1 million Macs last Christmas.

Wolf's Mac projections are up from his previous forecast of 4.4 million, despite a weak overall PC market. He cited surveys that indicate Mac sales in the September quarter were stronger than previously expected.

Domestic sales figures released by the NPD Group earlier this month showed Apple on pace to sell 4.5 million Macs in the September quarter. Based on the first two months of the quarter, Mac sales were up 22 percent year over year in the U.S.

He also expects sales of iPad units to end users to be around 9 million for the quarter, with total sales into the channel of 12 million, leaving Apple with three to four weeks of inventory in the channel. That would be a major improvement from what was effectively no weeks of inventory in the channel at the end of the June quarter.



As for iPhone sales, Wolf expects that Apple will report sales of about 17 million units. That would be a sequential decline from last quarter's record 20.34 million iPhones sold, as the analyst anticipates that subscribers will postpone purchases ahead of the anticipated fifth-generation iPhone launch.

Needham sees Apple reporting fourth-quarter earnings-per-share of $7.37, with total fiscal 2011 EPS of $28. For 2012, the firm expects EPS of $33. It has maintained a price target of $540 for AAPL stock.

In other totally unrelated news, a random ass analyst jumped to his death.
I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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post #3 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

As for iPhone sales, Wolf expects that Apple will report sales of about 17 million units. That would be a sequential decline from last quarter's record 20.34 million iPhones sold, as the analyst anticipates that subscribers will postpone purchases ahead of the anticipated fifth-generation iPhone launch.

Seems like a lot of people are going to get an iPhone for Christmas. Happy days!
post #4 of 21
Remember when AAPL was $14 and SJ introduced the lickables and the trades laughed?

Quote:
It has maintained a price target of $540 for AAPL stock.

Yeah baby, who's your daddy now!

post #5 of 21
Booooooooring.........
post #6 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by ConradJoe View Post

Booooooooring.........

Of course it would be for you. (i) You don't own AAPL; (ii) You're ambivalent about Apple; (iii) Most of your posts are about touting the benefits of Android.
post #7 of 21
So, is Apple selling enough devices to satisfy Wall Street and make the share price move upward to get to $450. The more devices Apple sells and the more revenue it brings in the P/E continues to compress and the share price doesn't move. Will this quarter be any different from the last? Apple share price to revenue is moving like it's in molasses. Huge jumps in revenue register as little blips in share price movement. Amazon merely announced the $199 Fire tablet today and got a 4% share price bump earlier. Not one Fire tablet has been sold. Apple could actually sell 12 million $500+ tablets in a quarter and it will hardly register in share price movement, maybe 2-3%. Apple shareholders aren't going to be happy when the P/E drops down to around 14 or so.
post #8 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Of course it would be for you. (i) You don't own AAPL; (ii) You're ambivalent about Apple; (iii) Most of your posts are about touting the benefits of Android.


Can you come up with posts of mine "touting" the benefits of Android? What are these supposed "benefits"?
post #9 of 21
i suppose this doesnt bode well for my hopes of apple lowering ipad prices for the holiday to compete more with these new lower priced (inferior) competitors. with sales this strong i would assume things will stay the same. kinda sux. maybe the "one more thing" will be a performance bump for the ipad2.
post #10 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

So, is Apple selling enough devices to satisfy Wall Street and make the share price move upward to get to $450. The more devices Apple sells and the more revenue it brings in the P/E continues to compress and the share price doesn't move. Will this quarter be any different from the last? Apple share price to revenue is moving like it's in molasses. Huge jumps in revenue register as little blips in share price movement. Amazon merely announced the $199 Fire tablet today and got a 4% share price bump earlier. Not one Fire tablet has been sold. Apple could actually sell 12 million $500+ tablets in a quarter and it will hardly register in share price movement, maybe 2-3%. Apple shareholders aren't going to be happy when the P/E drops down to around 14 or so.

Aapl is now such a big market cap company that it faces problems from it's size in the markets. Many mutual funds and retirement funds can only own a certain percentage of one stock and aapl has by it's growth gotten to that cap. Almost all the funds own aapl it is only a question of how much. The problem arises because who is left to buy aapl when it is already so widely owned.

There have been rumors of aapl being added to the dow
which could be a boost, but the dow isn't what it once was.
( http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderd...-says-bespoke/ )
post #11 of 21
IPhone sales won't retreat significantly due to strong and continued success in the business community.

Mac sale will be strong but it will mostly be due to laptoP sales. I see numbers just shy of 4 million. Mac Pro sale will have tanked.

IPad sales will continue to climb.

IPod Touch will now represent 65% of iPod sales.
post #12 of 21
Quote:
analyst anticipates that subscribers will postpone purchases ahead of the anticipated fifth-generation iPhone launch.

Isn't that was was said last quarter when everyone thought Apple is releasing a new iPhone in th summer?
post #13 of 21
Be interesting to include in the article a quick rundown of this particular analyst's track record. Seems like quarter in, quarter out, the bloggers and amateurs far outperform the pros.

I'd like to know what the Apple Finance Board over at Mac Observer thinks, since they're typically pretty dead on.
They spoke of the sayings and doings of their commander, the grand duke, and told stories of his kindness and irascibility.
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They spoke of the sayings and doings of their commander, the grand duke, and told stories of his kindness and irascibility.
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post #14 of 21
Apple's stock will rocket toward $500. once China Mobile signs on the dotted line.
post #15 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by applecider View Post

Aapl is now such a big market cap company that it faces problems from it's size in the markets. Many mutual funds and retirement funds can only own a certain percentage of one stock and aapl has by it's growth gotten to that cap. Almost all the funds own aapl it is only a question of how much. The problem arises because who is left to buy aapl when it is already so widely owned.

There have been rumors of aapl being added to the dow
which could be a boost, but the dow isn't what it once was.
( http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderd...-says-bespoke/ )

Wow. Apple possibly added to the Dow. I honestly did not think I would see this day.
post #16 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

Be interesting to include in the article a quick rundown of this particular analyst's track record. Seems like quarter in, quarter out, the bloggers and amateurs far outperform the pros.

I'd like to know what the Apple Finance Board over at Mac Observer thinks, since they're typically pretty dead on.

Here you go:

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/07/...treet-blew-it/

Wolf's record isn't all that great, but he blows doors on Munster, Wu, Shope and Huberty.

Mark Moskowitz at JP Morgan is the only professional analyst who has a marginally decent track record in recent times.

You're right though, I'd trust the Apple Finance Board over the Street any day.
post #17 of 21
It'll be 4.8 million Macs sold. AI is always too conservative.
post #18 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

Wow. Apple possibly added to the Dow. I honestly did not think I would see this day.

The DOW needs Apple to make it look like the stock market is good for investing. I'll be curious to see how Apple profits trend in the next 2 years. In China a lot of the manufacturing costs have gone up as more and more workers are demanding better wages. i just worked with a woman who uses China to manufacture her products and she had to raise prices on her products because the factories have lager labor costs.
post #19 of 21
iPhone ... 19mil ... $4.8bil
iPad ... 13mil ... $3.1bil
iPod ... 6.5mil ... $0.4bil
Mac ... 4mil ... $1.6bil

$9.9 billion total profit on 10/18/2011, a slight increase over last quarter, hopefully a very conservative estimate in all 4 categories

Any opinions or areas where I am way off?

Ara
post #20 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

So, is Apple selling enough devices to satisfy Wall Street and make the share price move upward to get to $450. The more devices Apple sells and the more revenue it brings in the P/E continues to compress and the share price doesn't move. Will this quarter be any different from the last? Apple share price to revenue is moving like it's in molasses. Huge jumps in revenue register as little blips in share price movement. Amazon merely announced the $199 Fire tablet today and got a 4% share price bump earlier. Not one Fire tablet has been sold. Apple could actually sell 12 million $500+ tablets in a quarter and it will hardly register in share price movement, maybe 2-3%. Apple shareholders aren't going to be happy when the P/E drops down to around 14 or so.

In my personal projections on Excel, I have the PE going down from 15ish today to 12 on Jan 2014. I own options for that date. Earnings will increase to over 10.73 that quarter but stock price may only hover around $490 in 2 years. I totally agree with your analysis of huge leaps in earnings and small hops in price. Although since I own options, even the small movements are exciting.
post #21 of 21
I love how there's an HTC ad on an Apple website.
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