Originally Posted by andrewoliv
You need to include the disgruntled AT&T iPhone user in your model above.
I don't think there are many of those, disgruntled AT&T iPhone users. If there were, there would have been an explosion of Verizon iPhone customers earlier this year. The reported churn rates from carriers are generally 1% to 2%. Even Sprints downward spiral of a few years ago was a slow, small loss of customers on the order of 0.5 to 1m customers per quarter after quarter.
In addition, iPhone customer satisfaction rates are industry leading on the order of 80 to 90%.
I own a 3GS on the AT&T network. And like the majority of 3GS/AT&T customers. Love the phone and hate the network. The Verizon iPhone was a ray of hope but not quite the answer. Having to hang up the call to check email is an issue and even though Verizon may have more data coverage the throughput is lacking. Except for their LTE network......
There aren't a lot of people who hate the "network". It's all empty talk. If they truly hated their network, churn rates would be much higher. It could be the case that all carriers suck, people recognize that and thusly, their words aren't met with action.
I live in downtown Washington DC and can't get service for my 3GS in my home. I had to get a house phone from the cable company to forward my cell phone to, I want to RUN from ATT.(my 4G router from Verizon works great in the house.)
My ATT 3GS has horrible service in my house (radiant barrier, grrr). Unfortunately, all carriers suck in my house.
A 500 MHz frequency band network might have a shot, but that isn't coming.
My contract with AT&T is over and I will consider an iPhone 5. However, if it doesn't solve the "love the phone, hate the carrier" issue there is no reason to make the move.
Most of Apple's target market is in this situation, as you pointed out only 10% went to Verizon. Because the Verizon iPhone wasn't the answer. I fear iPhone 5 won't be the answer either.
It will be the next "thing" another nice toy but I believe it will disappoint and not live up to the hype because it falls short of solving the issue of the disgruntled 3GS/AT&T user. The iPhone5 will not meet it's current unit projections through jan 2012
Apple's iPhone has industry leading customer satisfaction. Not by a little. But by a whole lot, and spanning back since its first model. Through all this time, at least in the USA, when it was on AT&T exclusively which by most accounts has the worst voice service at least in terms of dropped calls, people have continued to buy iPhones and have been the most satisfied with it.
Apple will lose customers certainly due to people who value LTE over an iPhone w/o LTE, but I think you're way overestimating the number of those people. It's not most, it's not some, it's not a few. It's going to be something pretty small. 1m? I think that number is too high. 500k? Maybe.