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Fifth-gen iPhone expected to 'shatter' Apple's existing sales records

post #1 of 30
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With 74 new carriers added since the iPhone 4 launched in 2010, Apple is predicted to easily top its personal best of 1.7 million handsets sold in three days with the launch of the fifth-generation iPhone.

Analyst Brian White with Ticonderoga Securities expects a "media blitz" and "unprecedented demand" after Apple announces its next iPhone on Tuesday, allowing the new model to "shatter" the sales records set by the iPhone 4. He noted that The iPhone is now available on 228 carriers worldwide, compared to 154 during the iPhone 4 launch in 2010, giving Apple an opportunity for even greater sales this year.

With an aggressive roll-out of the so-called "iPhone 5," much like Apple's accelerated international launch of the iPad 2 this year, White believes the company will be able to ramp up sales more quickly. Apple will also be aided by the CDMA iPhone, allowing it to expand to even more carriers worldwide, particularly in China.

He also thinks this year's iPhone could be a "world phone" compatible with both GSM and CDMA networks. That would allow Apple to build one handset for use on different carriers, such as AT&T and Verizon in the U.S.

Despite continued evidence that Apple's next iPhone will sport an appearance similar to the current iPhone 4, White is still holding out hope that Apple plans to introduce a radically redesigned handset on Tuesday. He predicts that the "iPhone 5" will feature an aluminum unibody design that will be "more aesthetically pleasing but also stronger, lighter, and avoid the back-side 'glass breaks' of last year."

"With this new enclosure, we believe this will provide Apple with the opportunity to expand the display size by at least one half of an inch to 4 inches and hopefully bigger," White wrote in a note to investors on Monday. "Apple will clearly need to upgrade the processor speed to at least a Dual Core 1.2GHz to match the Samsung Galaxy S II, while upgrading to a 8 mega pixel 1080p camera that is now also on the Galaxy S II."

He does not expect that the next iPhone will be compatible with true 4G long-term evolution networks, but does believe that recent evidence of an HSPA+ compatible iPhone is legitimate. While not "true" 4G, HSPA+ has been advertised as having 4G-equivalent speeds, with theoretically downloads of 21Mbps.



A number of third-party cases have shown an iPhone 5 design with a thinner body and tapered sides similar to the iPad 2, but numerous leaked components have shown a device with a design much like the iPhone 4. The similarities between the iPhone 4 and the leaked components have led to rumors referring to the device as an "iPhone 4S," a name that was also discovered in a pre-release beta version of iTunes.

For months there was speculation that Apple would release both a low-cost "iPhone 4S" and a redesigned "iPhone 5" this year, but in recent weeks those claims have died down. But with just a day to go before Apple's keynote, White continues to believe Apple will release two models, with the "4S" geared toward the huge prepaid smartphone market in China.
post #2 of 30
Damn right, I know a shed load of people waiting for the iPhone 5. Hot cakes.
post #3 of 30
Not, bad, Considering MS may have only 1,7 million "real" sales of indows 8 the next three years,
post #4 of 30
This guy is a nut. He doesn't know anything, yet because he is an "analyst" his garbage gets reprinted all over the net.
post #5 of 30
This guy White is interesting, but i just can't see Apple using an aluminum body because of antenna issues. If they did, they'd have to use a window as is used on the iPad. The problem with that is the window would need to be very large, as the antenna's need to be a certain size.

I'd like to see a different body, and even a 4" screen. But nothing larger. I don't know what his enthusiasm for huge phones is all about. I also don't know where he gets the idea that even a larger body, as shown by these cases that we're seeing, could hold a screen bigger than 4".

He must be on some good stuff.
post #6 of 30
The debate about whether Apple will launch only a 4s model, or a 4S model plus a 5 is interesting. I don't think Apple can get away with only releasing a mild upgrade to the existing design. As someone who has bought every successive iPhone model, I wouldn't change handsets unless the cost was negligible.

There is pent-up demand for a new iPhone handset, not only because the changeover is three months overdue but also because of the antenna issues of last year. They may have been rectified or even been a non-issue, but the iPhone 4 didn't win the 'mine's better than yours' face-off in bars and clubs of the developed world. I think it allowed Samsung a toe-hold that Apple should be keen to break.

Even without the above concerns, I never liked the glass front and back. The iPhone 4 was the only model I have broken. It simply wasn't as robust as the 3 or original version. I am not alone in thinking this either.

So, I reckon Apple will launch a new model in addition to the 4S. We mustn't forget, however, that the IPhone 3GS was one of the best selling of all iPhone models for Apple. When it was priced for more budget conscious users, it drove a massive uplift in sales. The IPhone 4S could well be targeted as an iPhone 3GS replacement for budget users.

With an iPhone 4S sure, some people will upgrade. But with a completely new model as well, then the chances of existing iPhone users upgrading must surely be much higher? If I wanted to maximise iPhone sales, I'd launch a 4S and a 5.
post #7 of 30
If Apple only releases an incremental upgrade iPhone 4S after about 16 months since the last phone iteration, then most of the "amazing" sales will likely be iPhone 3GS owners upgrading (including myself). The question is how many new customers would an incremental upgrade bring in.

Unlike when the iPhone 4 was released, most two generation old iPhone users should now have been long out of contract. Us 3GS owners are twiddling our thumbs waiting to upgrade.
post #8 of 30
If they do have an earth shattering sales record, it will be because they're introducing the iPhone to Sprint. It's not hard to get sales when your much coveted phone is available on a carrier for the 1st time.
post #9 of 30
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

"With this new enclosure, we believe this will provide Apple with the opportunity to expand the display size by at least one half of an inch to 4 inches and hopefully bigger," White wrote in a note to investors on Monday. "Apple will clearly need to upgrade the processor speed to at least a Dual Core 1.2GHz to match the Samsung Galaxy S II, while upgrading to a 8 mega pixel 1080p camera that is now also on the Galaxy S II."[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ][/c]

That section is all I need to read to know this guy is worthless...

Will they upgrade the processor? Naturally. Because otherwise people will see a faster processor speed on the Samsung "i want an iPhone but think Apple bashing is cool so i git this POS" and buy it instead? Seriously?

And the camera? Really? He thinks that the iPhone, as the first AND second most sold phone is in danger of dropping a few spots if they don't upgrade the camera?

I don't know about you, but that is how *I* buy a phone! "I like this iPhone! Good phone! The camera is great! What, apps? Touch screen? Yeah I didn't notice those. Sure, sure, I am sure they work fine. Whatever, look at these pictures!"
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post #10 of 30
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArchAngel21x View Post

If they do have an earth shattering sales record, it will be because they're introducing the iPhone to Sprint. It's not hard to get sales when your much coveted phone is available on a carrier for the 1st time.

None of the other carriers they added in other also ran countries will help I am sure. America is the bright spot at the center of the universe, and lesser nations only count as a full sale when they have bought several phones. China for example would make very little difference, since i believe the rate is 147 chinese purchases to equal one American.
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post #11 of 30
Quote:
Originally Posted by shen View Post

China for example would make very little difference, since i believe the rate is 147 chinese purchases to equal one American.

Care to expand on that fuzzy math as far as iPhone sales are concerned?
post #12 of 30
I'd think that it comes down to how many Apple can make, major stock shortages are common with popular Apple products.
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post #13 of 30
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Care to expand on that fuzzy math as far as iPhone sales are concerned?

Sarcasm!
post #14 of 30
I don't see how the increased number of carriers helps anything because those carriers are available today to anyone who wants to buy an iPhone 4. Furthermore, the users who bought a phone to use on those newest carriers in the last year are probably the least likely people to buy the iPhone 5, since they just bought their phones and would have to pay a much higher price to upgrade. Of course, there's also those potential customers who have been holding off purchasing, waiting for the new model.

The most likely people to upgrade are those who are still using the 3-series phones, not the iPhone 4. But having said that, there are always those who have to have the latest thing and I think they'll be a flood of iPhone 4's on eBay and the like once the iPhone 5 is released.
post #15 of 30
Check it out:

$49.00=iPhone4 with 2 yrs contract
$399.00=iPhone4 for purchase-Prepaid services
$99.00=iPhone4S-16GB-2yrs contract
$199.00=iPhone4S-32GB-2yrs contract
$299.00=iPhone4S-64GB-2yrs contract
$199.00=iPhone5-16GB-2yrs contract
$299.00=iPhone5-32GB-2yrs contract

Just wait and see!!
post #16 of 30
Only if it's revolutionary not evolutionary will this happen.
The economy is far worse now than 2 years ago.
post #17 of 30
Quote:
Originally Posted by iKol View Post

Only if it's revolutionary not evolutionary will this happen.
The economy is far worse now than 2 years ago.

apple users do not care about the economy.
post #18 of 30
Quote:
Originally Posted by piot View Post

Sarcasm!



Thanks!
post #19 of 30
Looking forward to dumping the Droid X for the next iPhone.
Im hoping the screen stays the same size, No need for a Bigger screen IMO

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2010 MacBook Pro 13, 2.66
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iPhone 4 on StraightTalk

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post #20 of 30
Quote:
Originally Posted by Negafox View Post

If Apple only releases an incremental upgrade iPhone 4S after about 16 months since the last phone iteration, then most of the "amazing" sales will likely be iPhone 3GS owners upgrading (including myself). The question is how many new customers would an incremental upgrade bring in.

Unlike when the iPhone 4 was released, most two generation old iPhone users should now have been long out of contract. Us 3GS owners are twiddling our thumbs waiting to upgrade.

Double that twiddle here! (for me, mainly just want the better camera, comes in mighty handy, but a slightly bigger display would be nice)

Just an opinion based on no facts..., if no iP5 tomorrow this may highlight (expose?) a core characteristic of Apple. Their engineering is tight and focused, which makes for 'a' great phone. But when they try to take said product to different markets with their various characteristics (cdma, GSM for various 'flavor' carriers for example), its more difficult for Apple compared to competitors. One reason - They simple don't have the engineering numbers to do so. They have the talent, just not the numbers.
I have no doubt when iP5 comes it will be great. But for Apple, they create artisan pies, which takes a little larger to create and bake. So no iP5 (at least on a yearly schedule) because the artisans were working on a 'sprint' phone or a 'china' phone for this year.

Here's hoping I'm mistaken and Apple does have the mojo; and an iP5 shows tomorrow.
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post #21 of 30
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Care to expand on that fuzzy math as far as iPhone sales are concerned?

It could have, perhaps, just possibly, been a sarcastic remark to someone who suggested that record sales would be due to a single carrier in America. But I doubt it, as I would never make fun of someone for having such an ethnocentric view.
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post #22 of 30
Quote:
Originally Posted by shen View Post

It could have, perhaps, just possibly, been a sarcastic remark to someone who suggested that record sales would be due to a single carrier in America. But I doubt it, as I would never make fun of someone for having such an ethnocentric view.

That's not called for. It's entirely possible that the original point was based on the information that poster had at the time. It's not like they are required to know the potential size of every market on the planet and the factors that might (or might not) drive that potential into actual sales. He/she probably knows the Sprint figures, though.
post #23 of 30
The comments about the media blitz and the higher than ever sales are big no duh moments.

Of course there will be a media blitz. The only thing that would get more media coverage than anything Apple is if those twitards actually came out and admitted that they are dating. Both subjects are major hit attractors and the sites are all about getting hits because that's where their money is.

The Higher than Ever sales is a combo of more countries where you can buy the dang thing, more Apple Stores have opened even in the US and more folks have been hanging out with their iPhone toting friends, seeing more and more iPhones everywhere etc.

Where this guy blows it is when he suggests that Apple simply MUST do anything to keep up with anyone. It shows that he has no clue how Apple does things. They are the ultimate Honey Badger when it comes to the notion of keeping up with The Joneses. Especially when The Joneses happen to be those trade dress stealing wanks at Samsung.


Quote:
Originally Posted by saarek View Post

I'd think that it comes down to how many Apple can make, major stock shortages are common with popular Apple products.

And it probably pisses off a lot of other companies that folks will wait for whatever to get back in stock when it is an Apple thing. Everyone else, maybe or maybe not
post #24 of 30
I hope the voicemail alert icon on the invitation is a clue that Apple is adding a speech to text feature for voicemail messages, perhaps using the Siri technology. Heaven knows the speech-to-text tool in Google Voice sucks.

Or maybe the alert icon means their announcing version 1 of something?
post #25 of 30
Oh, the dinner bell has been rung. Standard fandroid retort "but but android outsells iOS 2-to-1" or the obligatory listing of hardware features and/or specs expected on this thread soon.

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #26 of 30
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArchAngel21x View Post

If they do have an earth shattering sales record, it will be because they're introducing the iPhone to Sprint.

No offense, but, the world is so much bigger than that. The real prize will be China. And then India.
post #27 of 30
I can think of at least two huge advantages in keeping the same iPhone 4 form factor for the 2011 iPhone. One helps sales, the other helps lower Apple's costs.

1. iPhone sales tend to slow down after a major redesign, as production of the old model is stopped and production of the new model is slowly ramped up. A substantially unchanged design (other than SoC, unified radio chip, camera, and RAM) means far less down time during the model changeover. And less down time means more sales.

2. Using the same overall iPhone 4 design means that Apple can amortize its development costs over two years (or even three years if the rumors of a free, subsidized 3GS are true.) This works out to a lower development cost per unit produced, which helps keep Apple's hardware margins up.

Another benefit, of course, is that Apple can spend roughly two years on the design and refinement of the next-gen iPhone. Apple might settle into a tick-tock routine: all-new design on even years, refinement and spec upgrades on odd years. The reason why it would take two years to fully develop each next-gen phone is because both the internal and external designs need to change simultaneously.

Oh well. Who knows? There might be a totally new iPhone every year from now on.
And that's what I'm really hoping for.

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post #28 of 30
to that i say
http://www.macrumors.com/2011/10/03/...s-performance/

nuff said

people should know its no longer just about paper specs...
post #29 of 30
Jees, not sure if Sprint is doing the right thing. . .

The Wall Street Journal is writing that "Sprint has bet the company" on Apple's iPhone, committing to purchase over nearly 8 million per year average over the next four years. The cost to Sprint? Over $20B! That's one huge gamble IMO, but smarter people than me signed off on it.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...795839250.html
melior diabolus quem scies
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melior diabolus quem scies
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post #30 of 30
Whatever they announce tomorrow will be my first iPhone. Like many others I waited for the Verizon iPhone and wasn't going to settle for the iPhone 4 with the next gen model right around the corner.
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