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Will Siri disintermediate Google?

post #1 of 20
Thread Starter 
Has Apple finally found a way to put a stake through Google's vampiric heart?

Google's business model is to sell advertising space through displaying visual ads on their dominant search webservice. They provide a free search service and in trade, they display referral ads, display ads etc. For awhile, I wish thinking this business model was unassailable because Google provides free services. Good services and in trade they get your information to both sell to advertisers and display space for advertisers.

If Siri is good enough. Star Trek good, it could people will change their habits and use a voice/audio service combined with filtered search results without all the side advertisments. especially for mobile devices where display space is limited. And then if the results are reported through audio, Google takes a double hit. People just ask the question to Siri or the personal assistant, and don't think about going to Google. Then the results are in audio form in which advertising is rather unsavory and poor user experience.

So, if natural language interface searching becomes the de facto way to search, it'll commoditize the search engine itself. Thus, Google's biggest source of money is disintermediated. Apple will have to press with this and make it available on all competing devices.
post #2 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shrike View Post

Has Apple finally found a way to put a stake through Google's vampiric heart?

Google's business model is to sell advertising space through displaying visual ads on their dominant search webservice. They provide a free search service and in trade, they display referral ads, display ads etc. For awhile, I wish thinking this business model was unassailable because Google provides free services. Good services and in trade they get your information to both sell to advertisers and display space for advertisers.

If Siri is good enough. Star Trek good, it could people will change their habits and use a voice/audio service combined with filtered search results without all the side advertisments. especially for mobile devices where display space is limited. And then if the results are reported through audio, Google takes a double hit. People just ask the question to Siri or the personal assistant, and don't think about going to Google. Then the results are in audio form in which advertising is rather unsavory and poor user experience.

So, if natural language interface searching becomes the de facto way to search, it'll commoditize the search engine itself. Thus, Google's biggest source of money is disintermediated. Apple will have to press with this and make it available on all competing devices.

You and ArsTechnica with the same thought.
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post #3 of 20
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

You and ArsTechnica with the same thought.

It has a chance. Not to big of chance, as natural language interfaces has been a holy grail in computing. However, it is one of the few, if only, things that is easier than going to a web-browser, entering google.com or the search field, and entering the search query.

If you can just say or type a request in a smart agent, and the smart agent heuristically filters the results what you want (search engines don't do this very well at all right now), it'll be a break through. Since mobile with limited display space is expected to be the dominant computing device, the traditional ways of digital advertising is going to be limiting, and it'll worse if it is all audio. Siri could be the start.

And btw, ugh, wrote the first post on my 3GS in a hurry while at the pool. I need a contextual grammar smart agent to fix that crap.
post #4 of 20
i just read this article saying people are replacing the 'search business" with the "answer business"

i just realized that that's true i'm looking more and more for answers with siri i need google search less and less

Steves brilliance getting and nurturing siri purchase

http://bigthink.com/ideas/40578?page=1
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post #5 of 20
Siri won't be and is not Star Trek good. We are still very off from that. Apple doesn't even have a search engine of it's own. Google has an entire algorithim that Apple doesn't have.

I'm sorry but this seems like a blanketed post. You're basing advertisments from a phone that hasn't been released yet to something that is already out there. There is so much ignorance in this post it's funny. When I want to search something on the internet....I'm going to google. Not apple.com. Not siri.com.
post #6 of 20
Stay away from Adwarealert. It's a program which exaggerates problems in order to make you buy. I can provide a link for you to look at more of this fake product.
post #7 of 20
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by linkgx1 View Post

Siri won't be and is not Star Trek good. We are still very off from that. Apple doesn't even have a search engine of it's own. Google has an entire algorithim that Apple doesn't have.

Maybe Apple won't get Star Trek good with Siri, but they certainly have a lot of resources to try to get there.

The point of a natural language interface isn't search. It's to perform things on a device in as natural way as possible, and that includes lots of things totally unrelated to search. If Apple works at it, then every Apple app and eventually, most 3rd party apps will be able to interact with Siri, enabling one to use your device through a context driven conversation, rather doing the work manually.

Quote:
When I want to search something on the internet....I'm going to google. Not apple.com. Not siri.com.

[snark]I don't. I go to Bing or Yahoo or Blekko or Wikipedia or Wolfram Alpha. 35% search users don't use Google after all. [/snark]

The point is, how does Google make money if a natural language interface is stripping Google's ads out of search? How will Google make money if the user interacts with a natural language interface through audio only? Have them wait 30 seconds for an advertisement to play before the reply is given? Insert audio/visual ads during the deadspace when the natural language interface is looking for an answer?

During Apple's press event, they didn't even mention Google during the Siri demo. It was Yelp, it was Wolfram Alpha, it was Wikipedia. Siri will default to a webpage search with the default search engine in Safari when it can't answer a question. If you think Google search was so important to Siri, you'd think they'd mention it.

In essence, if Siri is successful, the value chain changes. The value of finding an answer to something goes to being able to converse with Siri, and not Googling. If that happens, Google gets commoditized.
post #8 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shrike View Post

Maybe Apple won't get Star Trek good with Siri, but they certainly have a lot of resources to try to get there.

The point of a natural language interface isn't search. It's to perform things on a device in as natural way as possible, and that includes lots of things totally unrelated to search. If Apple works at it, then every Apple app and eventually, most 3rd party apps will be able to interact with Siri, enabling one to use your device through a context driven conversation, rather doing the work manually.



[snark]I don't. I go to Bing or Yahoo or Blekko or Wikipedia or Wolfram Alpha. 35% search users don't use Google after all. [/snark]

The point is, how does Google make money if a natural language interface is stripping Google's ads out of search? How will Google make money if the user interacts with a natural language interface through audio only? Have them wait 30 seconds for an advertisement to play before the reply is given? Insert audio/visual ads during the deadspace when the natural language interface is looking for an answer?

During Apple's press event, they didn't even mention Google during the Siri demo. It was Yelp, it was Wolfram Alpha, it was Wikipedia. Siri will default to a webpage search with the default search engine in Safari when it can't answer a question. If you think Google search was so important to Siri, you'd think they'd mention it.

In essence, if Siri is successful, the value chain changes. The value of finding an answer to something goes to being able to converse with Siri, and not Googling. If that happens, Google gets commoditized.


That's IF Siri extremely successful. Again, it would only be limited to phones....so I'm not sure how Google would lose money. Google is the number 1 search engine.

Peple still use Windows PCs (most of the world) and Android phones so I'm not sure how the iPhone affects their business model. Siri is iOS and possibly OSX only-for now.

Siri could end up like Facetime where it drives sales, but isn't used majorly. In order for Siri to destroy google it would have to almost never make mistakes when I'm using my voice. And based on hands on previews, I don't think so.

Of course, with Siri now Google will have to compete. I used the voice on my Vibrant, but there was a lack of integration in many apps. I can almost guarantee there will be a huge competitor after Ice Cream Sandwhich is released.

One issue is that Google has a HUGE, GINORMOUS backcatalog of search algorithims that could be used.

Yes, search will change. Just like I think that the Xbox's integration with services like Xfinity could kill the current cable service as we know it.
post #9 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by linkgx1 View Post

That's IF Siri extremely successful. Again, it would only be limited to phones....so I'm not sure how Google would lose money. Google is the number 1 search engine.

Peple still use Windows PCs (most of the world) and Android phones so I'm not sure how the iPhone affects their business model. Siri is iOS and possibly OSX only-for now.

Siri could end up like Facetime where it drives sales, but isn't used majorly. In order for Siri to destroy google it would have to almost never make mistakes when I'm using my voice. And based on hands on previews, I don't think so.

Of course, with Siri now Google will have to compete. I used the voice on my Vibrant, but there was a lack of integration in many apps. I can almost guarantee there will be a huge competitor after Ice Cream Sandwhich is released.

One issue is that Google has a HUGE, GINORMOUS backcatalog of search algorithims that could be used.

Yes, search will change. Just like I think that the Xbox's integration with services like Xfinity could kill the current cable service as we know it.

I think you're kind of missing the point here. It's not about "search algorithms", it's about using AI to bring context aware answers via voice. The backend systems become transparent to the user-- Apple has plugged in Wolfram Alpha, but they could just as easily plug in Bing or Google or something in-house at some point.

More importantly, they can also plug in any number of narrowly focused web technologies, such as weather services, geolocation, e-commerce, ticketing agencies, etc., and have them work together to provide satisfying outcomes to your natural language inquires. Plus they can tie that in with on-device apps and services (calendaring, address book, contacts list, user profile, etc) to create expanding functionality that changes the entire paradigm of "search" into "results" and "answers."

Search isn't some kind of fundamental human activity that must be honored, it's merely an artifact of how the internet has been structured to date. To disintermediate Google, all Apple has to do is change the terms of the customer relationship-- which is what they typically do. They don't "compete" in an existing business, they rethink that business from the ground up and create their own systems.

Sure there are a lot of PCs and Android phones out there, but there are a hell of a lot of iOS devices as well. If Apple shifts some large percentage of web activity on those devices away from Google that's a huge hit. It doesn't kill Google but it certainly deprives it of income it would otherwise have. It also begins the process of eroding mindshare-- of decoupling "Google" as a verb and "search" as a reflexive activity. Why bother with typing out some query that may or may not give me the results I'm looking for if I can just say "I want to buy tickets to the ballgame for tomorrow" or "what's the quickest way to get to the show?"

If Apple can pull this off (and I wouldn't bet against them) Siri is huge. It's a sea change in computer UI, and it neatly does an end run around the drawbacks of using very small devices for a broad range of computing tasks. Google should be very worried-- and no, they don't have some backlog of magic search algorithms that "could be used" because, again, it's not really about search algorithms. This is extremely sophisticated AI many years in the making, carefully tuned for Apple's hardware, and a great example of how Apple can compete with cheap and plentiful Android phones going forward.
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post #10 of 20
That, again, depends on how heavily Apple is going with Siri. It's gonna take a lot more years of refinement, but if the intial Siri "gets the Job done" then I think they'll succeed. To be able to say "What time does the Best Buy in Time Square close" and having her respond "Sir, it'll close at 9:00pm today" would be incredible. And yes it could kill Google's stream of income.

I think though that Google's service stream will certainly change. Right now they have tons of projects (promising). In fact, I think Google just wants they're own ecosystem (like Apple, but with Google Calendar/Docs/Movies/etc).

And who knows what the aqcuisition of Motorola will bring for GOOG as we don't know what they're exacting getting in those 10,000+ patents.
post #11 of 20
Sir and other technologies like it are probably going to soon be the #1 threat to Google's dominance in search. As much as Googles brains trust in search is lauded I've found that my search results have diminished in quality over the years to the point where it really doesn't matter if I use Google or Bing or even Yahoo. I'm very dissatisfied with search today. Too much SEO and non relevant or stale info shows up on page 1.

Siri is about abstracting the engine from the user. Today you must have a good idea about what you want to search to get the relevant results. With Siri the smarts it may be able to bring to the table to parse natural language commands and find the right solution will be a boon to users. The hoards of 3rd party API that Siri will access as Domains on the back un may be virtually limitless.

There's nothing stopping Apple from taking Siri to Mac and even windows. It's another app just like anything else. If it works and finds traction it'll change the way people search for information "without" Google being deep in the process and that's huge.
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post #12 of 20
My guess is that they're poring resources into Siri even now, working out how to expand the number of tie-ins and preparing hooks for the SDK.

In fact my guess is that Siri was the holdup on the 4s release, and even then it's still in beta. The thing about Apple is that they make a huge effort to make things seem simple, which is why their critics sometimes mistake the user experience for the technology-- in this case imagining that Siri is little more than rebranded Google Voice Commands or some pointless little gimmick.

There's an incredible amount of engineering behind getting to "Any good Mexican around here?" resulting in a list of nearby Mexican restaurants and not a list of Hispanic surnames in the local area code. The complexity of the task alone suggests that this is a major initiative from Apple, one they intend to make a cornerstone of the iOS experience.
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post #13 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

My guess is that they're poring resources into Siri even now, working out how to expand the number of tie-ins and preparing hooks for the SDK.

In fact my guess is that Siri was the holdup on the 4s release, and even then it's still in beta. The thing about Apple is that they make a huge effort to make things seem simple, which is why their critics sometimes mistake the user experience for the technology-- in this case imagining that Siri is little more than rebranded Google Voice Commands or some pointless little gimmick.

There's an incredible amount of engineering behind getting to "Any good Mexican around here?" resulting in a list of nearby Mexican restaurants and not a list of Hispanic surnames in the local area code. The complexity of the task alone suggests that this is a major initiative from Apple, one they intend to make a cornerstone of the iOS experience.

I didn't think Siri was going to be ready until iOS 6. I presume we may see 3rd party developer access and more command utterances available at WWDC 2012.

The discussions that I've seen about Siri have been all over the place. There's a lot of confusion about why Siri is different than "Speech to Text" fed into a search engine. The knee jerk response from some people is "Oh this is like Android Actions " or whatever they call it. Everyone want so "know" but Siri is certainly more complex and there's a reason why it's in Beta. It's got a lot of growing to do.

I don't think the layman will grok Siri and what makes it different until they watch some presentations on it. Tom Gruber from Siri has a 40 minute presentation on Vimeo where he eloquently discusses the history and objectives of AI. It's fascinating if you're remotely interested in the subject and it prevents such ignorance of what is AI versus "Speech to Text"
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post #14 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post

I didn't think Siri was going to be ready until iOS 6. I presume we may see 3rd party developer access and more command utterances available at WWDC 2012.

The discussions that I've seen about Siri have been all over the place. There's a lot of confusion about why Siri is different than "Speech to Text" fed into a search engine. The knee jerk response from some people is "Oh this is like Android Actions " or whatever they call it. Everyone want so "know" but Siri is certainly more complex and there's a reason why it's in Beta. It's got a lot of growing to do.

I don't think the layman will grok Siri and what makes it different until they watch some presentations on it. Tom Gruber from Siri has a 40 minute presentation on Vimeo where he eloquently discusses the history and objectives of AI. It's fascinating if you're remotely interested in the subject and it prevents such ignorance of what is AI versus "Speech to Text"

Right, there's a lot of upside to this tech and I suspect that Apple has barely scratched the surface. I've also heard a lot of "you'll never catch me looking stupid talking to my phone" stuff, but I think that may be of a piece with "you'll never catch me looking stupid poking my screen"-- that is, social norms change when there is broadly deployed, sufficiently compelling tech to drive that change. Certainly 75% of current cell phone behavior would have been considered insane just a few short years ago.

Siri, in conjunction with touch, could be the Next Big Thing for Apple, and I think they rolled it out in a relatively low key manner (as a feature, not a product in its own right) because there is still so much to do. This time next year may see "Siri 2" getting top billing.
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post #15 of 20
I wonder how deep Siri really goes. I mean, how much depth is there in the OS? So curious? Like, where can I preorder Mass Effect 3? I wonder where that will get me!

Or

"where is the free sex?" Siri: "Sexymonster22 wants someone naughty at the back alley of 4th street....reply to craigslist post?"
post #16 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by linkgx1 View Post

I wonder how deep Siri really goes. I mean, how much depth is there in the OS? So curious? Like, where can I preorder Mass Effect 3? I wonder where that will get me!

Or

"where is the free sex?" Siri: "Sexymonster22 wants someone naughty at the back alley of 4th street....reply to craigslist post?"

It's only a matter of time. I imagine third party service providers will be clamoring for a chance to get some Siri love (as it were).

Once Apple irons out the kinks (as it were) with their implementation, I'm sure they'll throw it open to all comers (as it were).
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post #17 of 20
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by linkgx1 View Post

That's IF Siri extremely successful. Again, it would only be limited to phones....so I'm not sure how Google would lose money. Google is the number 1 search engine.

Yeah, but phones will be the dominant computing platform in the future while desktop and laptop machines will be relegated to engineering or work tools. No?

And if proven popular, it'll make it across to these machines.

Quote:
Siri could end up like Facetime where it drives sales, but isn't used majorly. In order for Siri to destroy google it would have to almost never make mistakes when I'm using my voice. And based on hands on previews, I don't think so.

Siri is the tip of the iceberg. If it prove natural language interface possible, then every competitor will emulate it, and Google's search engine becomes commoditized. How will ads fund Google if no one sees them?

Quote:
Of course, with Siri now Google will have to compete. I used the voice on my Vibrant, but there was a lack of integration in many apps. I can almost guarantee there will be a huge competitor after Ice Cream Sandwhich is released.

Same question. How will Google make money if people aren't seeing their ads? A smart agent or an AI or an assistant, whatever you call it is supposed search through the mass of information out their, throw out the cruft and present you the answers. And it audio-only form, it isn't going to be a very nice experience if ads are interspersed in-between answers.
post #18 of 20
As one guy on Twitter said.


Sir and other programs like it are going to signal the rise of the programmable API as a thrust forward rather than relying on strictly HTML.

I agree with this because API give the ability to go beyond the inherent limitation of non compile language like HTML.

The next 5 years are going to be amazing.
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post #19 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shrike View Post

Same question. How will Google make money if people aren't seeing their ads? A smart agent or an AI or an assistant, whatever you call it is supposed search through the mass of information out their, throw out the cruft and present you the answers. And it audio-only form, it isn't going to be a very nice experience if ads are interspersed in-between answers.

Good point. If Apple drives adoption of Siri like interfaces, Google is going to be royally screwed. As you say, sticking ads on the results from this kind of process will be far more irritating than text banners. Either Google's implementation suffers in comparison to Apple's, or Google has to eat it on ad revenue, or both.

One thing is for sure-- if Siri takes off we can look forward to being told that Apple didn't invent anything, didn't innovate in any way, and didn't change how people use their mobile devices. It will turn out they just did the next obvious thing with existing tech and anyway I could do voice searches with my Android phone long before Apple got around to it, LOL.
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post #20 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post

As one guy on Twitter said.


Sir and other programs like it are going to signal the rise of the programmable API as a thrust forward rather than relying on strictly HTML.

I agree with this because API give the ability to go beyond the inherent limitation of non compile language like HTML.

The next 5 years are going to be amazing.

Is it a given that Siri will be available as an API? It would be awesome if true.
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