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iPhone 4S preorders suggest 3M sales at launch, 25M this quarter

post #1 of 27
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Apple's record setting pace of a million iPhone 4S preorders in 24 hours puts the company in a position to sell nearly 3 million devices on launch weekend, and 25 million in the current quarter.

Wall Street analysts reacted on Monday to Apple's announcement that customers had preordered 1 million units of the iPhone 4S on its first day of availability. That number is well beyond the company's previous record of 600,000 preorders for the iPhone 4 in 2010.

Mike Abramsky with RBC Capital Markets believes that preorder numbers for the iPhone 4S put Apple on pace to sell around 3 million in its first weekend. That too would handily beat Apple's previous best of 1.7 million units sold in the first three days of availability for the iPhone 4 in 2010.

"Despite a more evolutionary update and a lack of AT&T early upgrade discounts, strong pre-orders affirm strong global demand and upgrades," Abramsky wrote in a note to investors.

Beyond the launch window, analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray believes that the early sales figures suggest Apple can potentially surpass his previously made prediction of 25 million units sold during the holiday quarter that ends with December. If Apple does sell 25 million iPhones, it would be up 77 percent from the 14.1 million handsets Apple sold in the September quarter of 2010, when the iPhone 4 debuted.

"We expected iPhone 4S to be the strongest iPhone launch ever, which Apple has now confirmed," Munster wrote. "While it is still early, this data point increases our confidence that iPhone 4S has the momentum to meet or exceed our 25m unit estimate for the Dec-11 quarter."



Preorders for the iPhone 4S began on Friday in the seven countries where the handset will launch this week: the U.S., Canada, Australia, the U.K., France, Germany and Japan. In addition to greater demand because of a growing smartphone market, the iPhone also has a larger presence on more carriers for the launch of the iPhone 4S.

Apple will also expand international availability of the iPhone 4S faster than it has done with any previous handset. Another 22 countries will gain access to the iPhone 4S by the end of October, including Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland.
post #2 of 27
post #3 of 27
Another great product that a vocal minority put down for no reason (the shape has no novelty value!), while the masses snap it up and enjoy the benefits
post #4 of 27
Apple was devastatingly smart to unveil the iPhone 4S JUST BEFORE THE CHRISTMAS BUYING SEASON!

WOW!

Apple is going to have a MONSTER QUARTER. And it is going to steamroll ahead.
post #5 of 27
Maybe the Kinect II will be able to beat the iPhone 4S as the World's Fastest-Selling Electron Device¡
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post #6 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by jameskatt2 View Post

Apple was devastatingly smart to unveil the iPhone 4S JUST BEFORE THE CHRISTMAS BUYING SEASON!

WOW!

Apple is going to have a MONSTER QUARTER. And it is going to steamroll ahead.

Some companies have all the luck.
post #7 of 27
It's not really luck.

It's about creating a good business model and executing it correctly. If it were about luck, you'd have random companies having great quarters followed by awful quarters.

Apple has chosen to sell high quality products at high margins and maintain a consistently high user experience; the company has executed very well. That results in Apple topping every single customer satisfaction survey for years. If Apple stumbled, people would go elsewhere.

No one is being forced to spend their money on Apple products. Based on quarterly earnings reports and sales growth, it is clear that Apple's customers making deliberate choices and end up being happy with those decisions.
post #8 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by starwarrior View Post

Some companies have all the luck.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

It's not really luck.

It's about creating a good business model and executing it correctly. If it were about luck, you'd have random companies having great quarters followed by awful quarters.

Apple has chosen to sell high quality products at high margins and maintain a consistently high user experience; the company has executed very well. That results in Apple topping every single customer satisfaction survey for years. If Apple stumbled, people would go elsewhere.

No one is being forced to spend their money on Apple products. Based on quarterly earnings reports and sales growth, it is clear that Apple's customers making deliberate choices and end up being happy with those decisions.

I thought the sarcasm in the original post was fairly obvious.
post #9 of 27
What about Greater China? Mainland China, HK, Macau, Taiwan? Apple must have enough production capacity yet. Ran out of inventory.
post #10 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by cpr1 View Post

I thought the sarcasm in the original post was fairly obvious.

You never know on the Internet, particularly in forums where there are a large number of participants whose native language isn't English. That's why there are smilies.

Without any sort of clear indication, it is wisest to take online comments at face value, rather than assert a particular interpretation. There are many clues in verbal communcations that convey sarcasm, but none on the Internet.
post #11 of 27
This is going to be the most disputed figure of the year for Apple. Tech pundits have already stuck their necks out calling the iPhone 4S a massive disappointment and they hate to be proven wrong. They're going to debunk these highly unlikely pre-order numbers one way or another and they've already started trying. The pundits are absolutely sure that consumers will believe them when they say that the iPhone 4S is nothing more than a 2010 iPhone 4 with an "S" stuck on the end.

Everyone knows that a device is only considered new when it looks nothing like the older version and the iPhone 4S looks exactly like the iPhone 4. It even uses the same third-party accessories and cases. Who'd believe that as being new? The pundits hate the idea that they waited 16 months to see the same, exact smartphone they saw years ago. The reality distortion field can't even hide that much disappointment. The tech-heads wanted to see Apple's answer to the Nexus Prime, the smartphone that does everything and more and doesn't look anything like the Nexus One. Now that's what the critics call brand-new. All they got from Apple was week-old, warmed-over iPhone 4 soup.
post #12 of 27
All lies, not named iPhone 5 is not selling. A little android told me so.
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post #13 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by AjitMD View Post

What about Greater China? Mainland China, HK, Macau, Taiwan? Apple must have enough production capacity yet. Ran out of inventory.

Launches in Singapore at the end of October. Everyone from HK, China, Taiwan, Macau and Malaysia will just make a short trip.
post #14 of 27
Also given the GSM + CDMA support china is going to be covered quite nicely.
post #15 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by ajmas View Post

Also given the GSM + CDMA support china is going to be covered quite nicely.

They still need a GSM(2G)/TD-SCDMA(3G) iPhone to cover the half-billion people on China Mobile.
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post #16 of 27
This site gives some insight into the iPhone upgrade cycles.

http://www.iSights.org/2011/10/the-i...ade-cycle.html

Basically, there are major cycles and minor cycles, with the major cycles rather strategically placed during the middle of the contract period. In that way Apple tries to entice people to upgrade mid-cycle.
post #17 of 27
There's no logic to that.

Apple doesn't make any more money when an iPhone owner upgrades mid-cycle. Apple is going to make money regardless of how much the consumer pays, whether the handset is fully subsidized, partially subsidized, or not subsidized at all (full retail).

And in most markets outside of USA (about half of iPhone revenue), the handsets aren't even subsidized. The consumer pays full retail and contract periods don't even exist.

Moreover, Apple's sales growth has come from new customers. If it were mostly people upgrading, their sales increases would not be as impressive. They sold lots of iPhone 4 units to people who weren't upgrading from previous iPhones.
post #18 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


including Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland.

No Greece?
post #19 of 27
I'm a little concerned. I got my shipment notice that my wifes phone shipped yesterday and arrived in ANC this afternoon and scheduled to be delivered on the 14th. Mine is still listed as "preparing to ship". I figure either hers will be early (doubt it) or mine will be late (SUCK!).


Hers is a white 16gb, mine is black 16gb in case anyone else has seen the same thing. Maybe the black ones come from somewhere other than China?
post #20 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChristophB View Post

No Greece?

Was going to make some quip about Greece is still trying to pull their money together to buy one, but instead I'll just nope and post the PR release.

http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2011...-5-iCloud.html
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post #21 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahmlco View Post

This site gives some insight into the iPhone upgrade cycles.

http://www.iSights.org/2011/10/the-i...ade-cycle.html

Basically, there are major cycles and minor cycles, with the major cycles rather strategically placed during the middle of the contract period. In that way Apple tries to entice people to upgrade mid-cycle.

So do we expect to wait another 15 months before the iPhone 5 ? Some are predicting q3 of 2012. I can't wait for Wednesday to see how iOS 5 runs on my iPhone 4. Then I'll see if I will upgrade in late nov or hopefully wait until sep or oct to upgrade
post #22 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkrunner1738 View Post

So do we expect to wait another 15 months before the iPhone 5 ? Some are predicting q3 of 2012. I can't wait for Wednesday to see how iOS 5 runs on my iPhone 4. Then I'll see if I will upgrade in late nov or hopefully wait until sep or oct to upgrade

15 month would put it at calendar Q1 of 2013. I personally think they will be doing 12 month cycle in the Autumn with the iPad release when the Earth is on the other side of the Sun.
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post #23 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahmlco View Post

This site gives some insight into the iPhone upgrade cycles.

http://www.iSights.org/2011/10/the-i...ade-cycle.html

Basically, there are major cycles and minor cycles, with the major cycles rather strategically placed during the middle of the contract period. In that way Apple tries to entice people to upgrade mid-cycle.

What also entices folks like me to buy into this *minor* upgrade is how early AT&T allows a subsidized upgrade. I got my iP4 in June 2010 and I am already eligible, a short 16 months into a 24 month contract. In the face of competition, AT&T must really want to ensure that they retain existing customers.

Correct me if I'm wrong but the original iPhone did NOT allow for video recording, which is contrary to the info found on the iSights.org website. (above link)
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post #24 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dickprinter View Post

What also entices folks like me to buy into this *minor* upgrade is how early AT&T allows a subsidized upgrade. I got my iP4 in June 2010 and I am already eligible, a short 16 months into a 24 month contract. In the face of competition, AT&T must really want to ensure that they retain existing customers.

Correct me if I'm wrong but the original iPhone did NOT allow for video recording, which is contrary to the info found on the iSights.org website. (above link)

That site is complete bollocks. Besides the obvious fact that new to iPhone buyers are buying year round he keeps reciting "new form factor, then upgrades" yet we see the iPhone 4 as being a new form factor with "IPS Retina display. 5MP camera. HD 720p video. Front-facing camera for use with Facetime. Faster. Better battery life." It's upgrades with every revision, regardless of a case change.

Now if the site claimed that Apple will be using a 2-year cycle for updating their case design because people are on 2 year contracts -and- because it's hard to come up with a radically new design every 12 months then I'd agree, to an extent. I'm not even convinced Apple will radically change the iPhone 4/4S case next year. If something is working for you you don't throw it away unless you have something better on the ready.

PS: Yeah, no video recording for original iPhone. The jailbreak community proved it was possible and that Apple was just trying to force you to buy the next iPhone by releasing an app that did something like 12fps with a really low resolution.

PPS: You must pay for a more expensive plan than I do (or on a family plan) with AT&T because I'm not eligible until mid-November and know others who aren't eligible until the end of November, yet we all pre-ordered the iPhone 4 immediately.
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post #25 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


PS: Yeah, no video chat for original iPhone. The jailbreak community proved it was possible and that Apple was just trying to force you to buy the next iPhone by releasing an app that did something like 12fps with a really low resolution.

Both I, and I believe the iSights website, were referring to video recording...and that wasn't until iP3GS, no? Although, I think, jailbreaking of any model iPhone would allow for either chat or recording.

Not on the family plan but have an iP3 & 4 on the plan. I checked for sh*ts and giggles and was surprised I was eligible but I'm happy for now. The refreshes and boosts were nice, both consumer and shareholder-wise, but not worth it for me just yet. I have a daughter coming of age so I'm planning my upgrade around her.
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post #26 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dickprinter View Post

Both I, and I believe the iSights website, were referring to video recording. Although, I think, jailbreaking of any model iPhone would allow for either chat or recording.

Mea culpa. I meant to write recording, not chat. The rest of that statement should make sense now. It was basically taking multiple small still shots and creating a MJPEG video, if I recall correctly. The HW simply wasn't designed for proper video recording.
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post #27 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Besides the obvious fact that new to iPhone buyers are buying year round he keeps reciting "new form factor, then upgrades" yet we see the iPhone 4 as being a new form factor with "IPS Retina display. 5MP camera. HD 720p video. Front-facing camera for use with Facetime. Faster. Better battery life." It's upgrades with every revision, regardless of a case change.

I think it lists upgrades with every version, including faster and better battery life each time. It's just that the major redesigns seem to hit during the even years (and mid-contract starting with the 3G), with internal upgrades alternating during the odd years.
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