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18.8M iPhone 3GS users expected to upgrade to Apple's iPhone 4S

post #1 of 78
Thread Starter 
A new analysis projects that 18.8 million iPhone 3GS users will upgrade to the iPhone 4S in the next year, accounting for 18 percent of Apple's sales.

Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray believes that most users who bought an iPhone 3GS before the iPhone 4 went on sale will make the upgrade in the next year. He has estimated there are 27.6 million iPhone 3GS users who are ready to upgrade their smartphone.

Munster's numbers are based on what he calls "several conservative assumptions" regarding sales and upgrades. If 25 percent of those users upgraded early to the iPhone 4 and 15 percent switched platforms to Android, that would leave 18.8 million left who would buy an iPhone 4S.

In August, Munster revealed the results of a small poll of 216 mobile phone users, in which he found a near-perfect retention rate among iPhone customers. The survey found that 94 percent of current iPhone customers said they expect to replace their iPhone with a better model in the future, rather than switching to another platform like Android.

That number well exceeded Android users, as only 47 percent of those polled indicated they expected to buy another Android device. Among Android users, Munster found that 42 percent planned to switch to the iPhone.

Munster's estimate of iPhone 3GS "upgraders" does not include any existing users of the first-generation iPhone, the iPhone 3G, or the iPhone 4.



In all, he sees Apple selling 104.4 million iPhones in its 2012 fiscal year. That would be a 35 percent increase from 2011, much less than the year-over-year increases of more than 90 percent that Apple has seen over the last two years.

Piper Jaffray has reiterated its "overweight" rating for AAPL stock. The firm has maintained its price target of $607.
post #2 of 78
Who runs this site anyway, Munster's PR agent?
post #3 of 78
Probably his cousin, Herman.
post #4 of 78
I heard that with all the great new Android phones coming to market and Apple screwing their customer base yet again with an old, flawed design that the iPhone 4S will be a flop.
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post #5 of 78
I heard his first cousin once removed, Eddie, writes the copy.
post #6 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I heard that with all the great new Android phones coming to market and Apple screwing their customer base yet again with an old, flawed design that the iPhone 4S will be a flop.

And all those iPhone 3GS phones will be unlocked and moved to tmobile.

Edit: Hmmm. Is "iPhones 3GS" the correct plural?
post #7 of 78
Geez, why would anyone buy a phone that looks like its predecessor?

(oh, wait - I just ordered 2).

However, I've kept the balance in the universe by selling the "old" phones on Ebay, so all is right with universe.
post #8 of 78
Check your hearing
post #9 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

probably his cousin, herman.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ironheadslim View Post

i heard his first cousin once removed, eddie, writes the copy.

love it!!!!
post #10 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I heard that with all the great new Android phones coming to market and Apple screwing their customer base yet again with an old, flawed design that the iPhone 4S will be a flop.

And then it got 1 million pre-orders in 24 hours. I would kill for a flop as bad as the iPhone 4S.
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post #11 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by IronHeadSlim View Post

I heard his first cousin once removed, Eddie, writes the copy.
post #12 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I heard that with all the great new Android phones coming to market and Apple screwing their customer base yet again with an old, flawed design that the iPhone 4S will be a flop.

You got it. Great Android phones, a shitty iPhone announcement, and Jobs' passing will run Apple into the ground.

(Yet the stock is up over $400 again. Imagine that.)
post #13 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChristophB View Post

And all those iPhone 3GS phones will be unlocked and moved to tmobile.

Edit: Hmmm. Is "iPhones 3GS" the correct plural?

You added phones for the plural to avoid any uncertainty but I think iPhones 3GSes would also work for plural, though it looks odd to me. It can get confusing when you want to make the earlier version possessive, as in 'the iPhone 3G's camera" to refer to the 2nd gen iPhone.
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post #14 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by sticknick View Post

You got it. Great Android phones, a shitty iPhone announcement, and Jobs' passing will run Apple into the ground.

(Yet the stock is up over $400 again. Imagine that.)

I had sold at $420 a few weeks back and bought back in at $355. I'm a happy camper.
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post #15 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I heard that with all the great new Android phones coming to market and Apple screwing their customer base yet again with an old, flawed design that the iPhone 4S will be a flop.

did people say it was going to flop? really? idiots. lol.

I've seen people say they were disappointed...but once you look past the hype of it all it was kind of obvious a 4S was more likely than a 5.

I guess the 18 month wait they may have expected something truly ground breaking unaware that sometimes the most amazing things come in the same package.
post #16 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

A new analysis projects that 18.8 million iPhone 3GS users will upgrade to the iPhone 4S in the next year, accounting for 18 percent of Apple's sales..

Yet another meaningless survey with seemingly zero validity and reliability. <sigh>
post #17 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by AbsoluteDesignz View Post

love it!!!!

I'm just curious.

What motivated you to remove the capitalization from my response when you quoted it?

Capitalization has real functions: it notifies the reader of a new sentence and also highlights proper names. I put it there for a reason.
post #18 of 78
I like how they carefully came up with exactly 18.8 million while in the chart they are guessing at how many have already upgraded.
post #19 of 78
Yeah, anyway, what going on here?!


Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

I'm just curious.

What motivated you to remove the capitalization from my response when you quoted it?

Capitalization has real functions: it notifies the reader of a new sentence and also highlights proper names. I put it there for a reason.
post #20 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by AbsoluteDesignz View Post

did people say it was going to flop? really? idiots. lol.

I've seen people say they were disappointed...but once you look past the hype of it all it was kind of obvious a 4S was more likely than a 5.

I guess the 18 month wait they may have expected something truly ground breaking unaware that sometimes the most amazing things come in the same package.

iPhone design was and is perfect. How does one improve perfect?
post #21 of 78
Well, im not in the US but I am on 3GS and I'll be upgrading. Still can't make up my mind about which deal/package to go. Probably going to buy the SIM free version if enough money is available.

So, there's some truth to that prediction.
post #22 of 78
Those 3GS users should be pretty impressed.
post #23 of 78
My wife and I were one of the people that waited for the IPhone announcement and got very dissapointed. We were expecting the new IPhone 5 since the IPhone 4 has been showing its age for some time.

After 10 years of owning all Apple technology, we switched to the Samsung SII, and we are more than happy with it. Most our Apple apps were already in the Android store from the same companies and were able to even transfer all the app information. i.e. contacts, passwords, music, etc.

Sorry Apple, but Apple needs to wake up and release better technology than the competition or is going to lose their Apple technology fans, like us. I am not going to brag about our new phones, but overall they are way superior in hardware/OS and usability than our old IPhone 4's.

I hope Apple comes back with better technology, because innovation is the way to beat the competition. But until then, we will go with the better technology.

Funny thing is that we would never have tested the new S2's if Apple would not have sued Samsung. If they are not carefull Apple can lose the market edge beginning this Christmas.

Apple needs to add SD cards to their phones so that one can just install 32 GB or 64 GB cards and switch them when one needs more space. IPhones need to have removable batteries, so that in 10 seconds or less you can replace the battery and get 8 more hours of work without having stupid charging contraptions. Apple needs to have OLED bright displays (no angle viewing issues) which is the best display technology. The OS has to change many annoying issues. i.e. killing the apps have to be done one by one and you have to enter the akward mode to do it. A bigger screen is needed. Small screens are hard to see and hard to type. Apple needs to improve their blue tooth devices, too. The Apple bluetooth does not have signal control and it has a low signal power, so when playing music in the car or home, it does not sound very good because one has to increase the amplifier volume, which increases the noise. In contrast, other phones have signal control and you can just raise the signal level for a rich music play at lower volumes. Storing files is awkard and needs to be improved. There needs to be a common place to store files that all applications can access. It is bad to have each application ahve a copy of a file because they cannot share files. There needs to be an easy way to exit an application or putting it in the background like in other devices.

Hopefully Apple will hear some of it's fans and ex-fans requests and will improve their devices...
post #24 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by starwarrior View Post

iPhone design was and is perfect. How does one improve perfect?

I would have liked to have seen four legs shoot out of it and become a coffee table. Or maybe it could have done a song and dance. Or better, Siri, ask that girl for a date for me.
post #25 of 78
I'll be holding out for the iPhone 5 in June or Oct '12 and I'm a iPhone 3g user. On my second iPhone 3g because my other did this weird white screen with blue-lines across the face late last year and it wouldn't work. I took it Apple, they said, gotta upgrade to iPhone 4 dude. No way! I'll wait! Went home, researched on YouTube the issue, required a jailbreak, backed it up, jail broke it, it worked another year. Finally, she died, completely. Bought a friends old 3g when he upgraded, put my sim card in, restored from old back up, and waited for big announcement for iPhone 5 and...still waiting. I haven't waited this long, to upgrade to the same phone I didn't want to upgrade to last year. So, the wait goes on. I'm sure the iPhone 3Gs, the iPhone 4 and the new iPhone 4s are fine iPhones but, it's nothing like what the iPhone 5 will be!
post #26 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by ACTech View Post


Hopefully Apple will hear some of it's fans and ex-fans requests and will improve their devices...

Hopefully Apple will never listen to people like you!

If you bought a Samsung SII, then good for you, I am extremely happy for you, but don't fool yourself into thinking that it's better than the iPhone 4S.

I realize that you have to justify your purchase, that is basic human psychology, but I am sorry to inform you that you made a mistake, and no matter what you try to tell yourself, you made the wrong decision!

I saw some preliminary benchmarks of the iPhone 4S and the iPhone kills the Samsung SII! It totally rapes the Samsung and humiliates it in numerous benchmarks.

What Android people seem to forget, is that the hardware specs don't really matter at all when your OS is complete fucking crap! The OS is slow, unoptimized, it's layer after layer of garbage and all of the specs in the world won't help you out!

Anyway, have fun with your Samsung. Why would somebody even bother to sign up here and write such a funny post as yours?

Apple will never listen to the likes of you. You are thinking wrong.
post #27 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by scottdreed_fsi View Post

I'll be holding out for the iPhone 5 in June or Oct '12 and I'm a iPhone 3g user. On my second iPhone 3g because my other did this weird white screen with blue-lines across the face late last year and it wouldn't work. I took it Apple, they said, gotta upgrade to iPhone 4 dude. No way! I'll wait! Went home, researched on YouTube the issue, required a jailbreak, backed it up, jail broke it, it worked another year. Finally, she died, completely. Bought a friends old 3g when he upgraded, put my sim card in, restored from old back up, and waited for big announcement for iPhone 5 and...still waiting. I haven't waited this long, to upgrade to the same phone I didn't want to upgrade to last year. So, the wait goes on. I'm sure the iPhone 3Gs, the iPhone 4 and the new iPhone 4s are fine iPhones but, it's nothing like what the iPhone 5 will be!

I don't understand why people think the 6th generation iPhone with iOS 6.0 an Apple A6 chip will be called the iPhone 5. There is no history to support this naming convention. Either iPhone 4G or iPhone 6 or something else entirely, but iPhone 5 is off the table.
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post #28 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by scottdreed_fsi View Post

I'll be holding out for the iPhone 5 in June or Oct '12 and I'm a iPhone 3g user. On my second iPhone 3g because my other did this weird white screen with blue-lines across the face late last year and it wouldn't work. I took it Apple, they said, gotta upgrade to iPhone 4 dude. No way! I'll wait! Went home, researched on YouTube the issue, required a jailbreak, backed it up, jail broke it, it worked another year. Finally, she died, completely. Bought a friends old 3g when he upgraded, put my sim card in, restored from old back up, and waited for big announcement for iPhone 5 and...still waiting. I haven't waited this long, to upgrade to the same phone I didn't want to upgrade to last year. So, the wait goes on. I'm sure the iPhone 3Gs, the iPhone 4 and the new iPhone 4s are fine iPhones but, it's nothing like what the iPhone 5 will be!

I hope you are not in the post-paid plan,subsidized phone markets. If you purchase full retail I understand, but if you aren't, I believe you've made a mistake with this approach because you will have paid a carrier dearly for subsidies you aren't receiving.
post #29 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by ACTech View Post

My wife and I were one of the people that waited for the IPhone announcement and got very dissapointed. We were expecting the new IPhone 5 since the IPhone 4 has been showing its age for some time.

After 10 years of owning all Apple technology, we switched to the Samsung SII, and we are more than happy with it. Most our Apple apps were already in the Android store from the same companies and were able to even transfer all the app information. i.e. contacts, passwords, music, etc.

Sorry Apple, but Apple needs to wake up and release better technology than the competition or is going to lose their Apple technology fans, like us. I am not going to brag about our new phones, but overall they are way superior in hardware/OS and usability than our old IPhone 4's.

I hope Apple comes back with better technology, because innovation is the way to beat the competition. But until then, we will go with the better technology.

Funny thing is that we would never have tested the new S2's if Apple would not have sued Samsung. If they are not carefull Apple can lose the market edge beginning this Christmas.

Apple needs to add SD cards to their phones so that one can just install 32 GB or 64 GB cards and switch them when one needs more space. IPhones need to have removable batteries, so that in 10 seconds or less you can replace the battery and get 8 more hours of work without having stupid charging contraptions. Apple needs to have OLED bright displays (no angle viewing issues) which is the best display technology. The OS has to change many annoying issues. i.e. killing the apps have to be done one by one and you have to enter the akward mode to do it. A bigger screen is needed. Small screens are hard to see and hard to type. Apple needs to improve their blue tooth devices, too. The Apple bluetooth does not have signal control and it has a low signal power, so when playing music in the car or home, it does not sound very good because one has to increase the amplifier volume, which increases the noise. In contrast, other phones have signal control and you can just raise the signal level for a rich music play at lower volumes. Storing files is awkard and needs to be improved. There needs to be a common place to store files that all applications can access. It is bad to have each application ahve a copy of a file because they cannot share files. There needs to be an easy way to exit an application or putting it in the background like in other devices.

Hopefully Apple will hear some of it's fans and ex-fans requests and will improve their devices...

Here's this guy calling the iP4 design "showing its age", which is clearly is not. It's still in my opinion the most nicest, polished design out there in comparison to that cheap plastic garbage that the other folks have.

And yet again, this guy is throwing all kinds of "must-have" specs - AMOLED, SD slots, removable battery, etc. that surely must make it sound like the iPhone has been flawed in its entirety to begin with. The same trollish remarks that many infesters here claim is a necessity on any phone today, and labels the iPhone an "epic fail" when the numbers consistently prove (since 2007) to the contrary.

Reality check buddy... tech-heads like you do not a market make. You definitely fall into the crowd that needs a quick 5-minute change-fix, every five minutes to keep from getting bored.

For everyone else - and where the money is at - Apple's answer to mobile computing obviously resonates with a huge number of people. It's easy to use, works great, looks great, has a timeless design, and shows a level of polish that the Android junk could never attain in both hardware and software integration.

We want stability, quality, and ease of use. I have yet to see that in any Android phone. I've tried so many of them that I just nod my head in disgust that what is essentially a big piece of beta software can't do any better.
post #30 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by ACTech View Post

My wife and I were one of the people that waited for the IPhone announcement and got very dissapointed. We were expecting the new IPhone 5 since the IPhone 4 has been showing its age for some time.

...

Hopefully Apple will hear some of it's fans and ex-fans requests and will improve their devices...

I call bullshit on your "I'm a disaffected Apple user" whine." You're an astroturfer.

Every criticism that you bring up has been asked and answered and while the battery whine and the dijsplay whine have been addressed to the tune of millions and millions of iPhones sold, you come here and sling the same shit. Who paid you? Samsung? Microsoft?

However, at the end of the day you answered your own question and the question of every other Fandroid. The iPhone is not for you. Move on. Get over the fact that the iPhone 4s is apparently a success

Oh one last thing, did you send this big long whine to Apple's feedback email address to actually try to make your point known? Or are you just astroturfung?
post #31 of 78
ACTech's talking points are so cliché and silly that I expected to see an irony mark or some indication of him having a laugh.
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post #32 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by scottdreed_fsi View Post

I'll be holding out for the iPhone 5 in June or Oct '12 and I'm a iPhone 3g user. On my second iPhone 3g because my other did this weird white screen with blue-lines across the face late last year and it wouldn't work. I took it Apple, they said, gotta upgrade to iPhone 4 dude. No way! I'll wait! Went home, researched on YouTube the issue, required a jailbreak, backed it up, jail broke it, it worked another year. Finally, she died, completely. Bought a friends old 3g when he upgraded, put my sim card in, restored from old back up, and waited for big announcement for iPhone 5 and...still waiting. I haven't waited this long, to upgrade to the same phone I didn't want to upgrade to last year. So, the wait goes on. I'm sure the iPhone 3Gs, the iPhone 4 and the new iPhone 4s are fine iPhones but, it's nothing like what the iPhone 5 will be!

Knock yourself out dude. I have been limping along with my old 3G after having sold my iPhone 4 last week. Can't wait until this Friday.

Yeah, yeah. And then you're gonna wait until the 5r, then the 6. All the while you probably have some iteration of Android phone, maybe Fudgsicle Supreme while you're astroturfing here. Nice try.
post #33 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I don't understand why people think the 6th generation iPhone with iOS 6.0 an Apple A6 chip will be called the iPhone 5. There is no history to support this naming convention. Either iPhone 4G or iPhone 6 or something else entirely, but iPhone 5 is off the table.

No offense, but why are you so obsessed with this? I rarely comment, but I read most article comment threads and I have seen no less than 6 posts in the last week or two from you on this. Let it go. It really is the silliest, most insignificant detail on an apple board to get all up in arms about. I tend to agree with you, but seriously, who gives a crap? Apple will call it what they'll call it, and then everyone will follow. How much time will you waste over the next year trying to convince people of a meaningless detail like whether it will be the iPhone 5, 6, or whatever?
post #34 of 78
AnandTech iPhone 4s Tests - What do they mean?
- http://jmmxtech.wordpress.com/
post #35 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jcoz View Post

No offense, but why are you so obsessed with this? I rarely comment, but I read most article comment threads and I have seen no less than 6 posts in the last week or two from you on this. Let it go. It really is the silliest, most insignificant detail on an apple board to get all up in arms about. I tend to agree with you, but seriously, who gives a crap? Apple will call it what they'll call it, and then everyone will follow. How much time will you waste over the next year trying to convince people of a meaningless detail like whether it will be the iPhone 5, 6, or whatever?

I don't care what they believe, I'm concerned with why they believe it. Imagine if someone said Apple was going to go back to the original iPhone design thickness. It would be illogical so you might be curious to know why, hence my starting the paragraph with "I don't understand" The rest is my argument as to why I don't understand. I'm nothing if not thorough.
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post #36 of 78
Before I buy an iPhone I'm waiting for it to have Flash, an optical drive for Blu-ray and make toast with jam.
post #37 of 78
The 4S exists because of 3GS contracts expiring, plus to engage Sprint, and lastly because LTE chipsets are not ready yet in SiP form factors. Take it easy, guys.
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post #38 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by ACTech View Post

My wife and I were one of the people that waited for the IPhone announcement and got very dissapointed. We were expecting the new IPhone 5 since the IPhone 4 has been showing its age for some time.

Do you own an iPhone 4? I have since launch day and it still cooks with gas. It still feels so fast that I debated waiting for the first LTE model. Less sane thoughts prevailed and of course I was up at 00:00:01 PDT and ordering.

I'll say that many of the features you mention would make a phone so large that I wouldn't want it.
post #39 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsd View Post

Before I buy an iPhone I'm waiting for it to have Flash, an optical drive for Blu-ray and make toast with jam.


SACD fan?

The 4 and 4S have a flash. You can even make it blink when incoming calls and msgs come in. You don't need Blu-ray - just stream movies from the cloud.



post #40 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmmx View Post

AnandTech iPhone 4s Tests - What do they mean?
- http://jmmxtech.wordpress.com/

It means that the iPhone assrapes the competition.
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