or Connect
AppleInsider › Forums › Mobile › iPad › Rumor: Apple shipped 13M iPads in Q3, short of internal forecasts
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

Rumor: Apple shipped 13M iPads in Q3, short of internal forecasts

post #1 of 68
Thread Starter 
A new report claims that Apple shipped a record-setting 13 million iPad units in the third quarter of calendar 2011, but suggests that sum did not meet the company's internal goals.

The data comes from a new report on Tuesday from DigiTimes, which claimed that Apple's iPad sales "only reached 13 million units with a sequential growth of 36.8%." It said that Apple's shipments were "impacted by the weakening global economy."

Whether or not iPad shipments fell short of Apple's expectations, sales of 13 million units would be a record setting quarter for the company. That number would handily best the 9.25 million iPads the company sold in its previous June quarter.

In addition, if Apple were to have sold 13 million iPads last quarter, that number would exceed Wall Street expectations. In general, analysts have called for Apple to report sales of around 11 million iPads.

The data point from DigiTimes was presented as a disappointment in the context of lower sequential growth. Across the entire tablet market, shipments reportedly reached 18.7 million units in the third quarter, a sequential increase of 27.5 percent, or less than half of the 60.9 percent sequential growth seen in the second quarter of 2011.

But the numbers, if accurate, also show that Apple outpaced the rest of the tablet industry in a market that the company's iPad already dominates. When the iPad is removed, non-iPad tablets saw growth of just 10.1 percent in the quarter.



The report also said that some tablet makers have reorganized their suppliers, which has caused a shift in supplier rankings. For example, in terms of CPU shipments, Nvidia is said to be the second-largest supplier, while Texas Instruments dropped to fourth place.

Apple is set to reveal its iPad shipments in the company's quarterly earnings report this afternoon. AppleInsider will have full, live coverage.
post #2 of 68
Suck!
post #3 of 68
Wow! Look! Record sales and almost 40% sequential growth!!! Better than the industry by far.
But that's never enough for analysts huh?
How did they find out 'internal goals'?
post #4 of 68
Two words, baby:

Amazon. Fire.
post #5 of 68
Stock manipulation story number ?
Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini.
Reply
Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini.
Reply
post #6 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by studiomusic View Post

Wow! Look! Record sales and almost 40% sequential growth!!! Better than the industry by far.
But that's never enough for analysts huh?
How did they find out 'internal goals'?

Actually, if you read the story, it's more than the analysts are projecting.

What we have here is someone starting a rumor that the currently rumored Q4 sales will be short of the previous rumored Q4 sales. IOW, totally useless click bait.
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
Reply
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
Reply
post #7 of 68
The analysis is talking about shipments, not sales.

This is how the analysts temper Apple's stock.

The stock should be at $550 so they keep it lower knowing that when the sales forecasts come in today they are forced to raise their targets, once more.

They make money off the volatility through shorting either way and if they see large purchases willing to sit on the stock they make jack squat for commissions.

Europe has Apple at $422.63.

We'll see Apple kiss $450 if the numbers are where any half-wit figures them to be.

It'll settle back down to around $435-440 by week's end.

On the other hand, if Google had anything remotely in the vicinity of Apple their stock jumps $50-$100 on such news.

The day when Google's ``Information is King'' theory runs dry will be a great day in the world of Computing.
post #8 of 68
Total market shipments reached 18.7 million? What was sold? Have the other makers finally filled the channels and their ships are stopping? Are all the shipped non-iPads new products that have some channel room?

If Apple reports something wild like 16 million, watch the heads explode, but 13.5 -14.5 is more likely...
OSX, because making UNIX user friendly is easier than debugging windows.
Reply
OSX, because making UNIX user friendly is easier than debugging windows.
Reply
post #9 of 68
The iPhone 4S will give a nice bump to the figures today!
iPad, Macbook Pro, iPhone, heck I even have iLife! :-)
Reply
iPad, Macbook Pro, iPhone, heck I even have iLife! :-)
Reply
post #10 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by xSamplex View Post

Two words, baby:

Amazon. Fire.

Right...

Apple must love the Amazon Fire if the effect it has is giving them 40% sequential growth, faster than the rest of the market in an industry it leads significantly.

I can see sales being lower than expected, but that is far more likely because of the fire sales competing tablets (especially the Touchpad) have had, than the Amazon offering.
post #11 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by studiomusic View Post

How did they find out 'internal goals'?

Of course they did not. That does not prevent them saying so.....

The noise-to-signal ratio before an AAPL earnings announcement is always something to behold.

Buy, hold for the long haul, and forget about the quarter-to-quarter chatter. All noise.
post #12 of 68
in a challenged economy, where savings are being eroded, salaries are stagnating and unemployment is so high, I do wonder how many more people take on board the attitude "do I want this or do I need this".
I do believe the ipad is a want not a need and therefore it's penetration into the masses will be limited.
Sorry if this is a bit negative, but I do see the ipad this way for myself, I'd love one, but I don't actually need one (my MBP does sterling work).
post #13 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by xSamplex View Post

Two words, baby:

Amazon. Fire.

Two words for you baby:

Dream. On.

Two words for everyone else:

Digitimes. Lies.
post #14 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by xSamplex View Post

Two words, baby:

Amazon. Fire.

Yes. Amazon sold millions of them last quarter.
post #15 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by woodbine View Post

in a challenged economy, where savings are being eroded, salaries are stagnating and unemployment is so high, I do wonder how many more people take on board the attitude "do I want this or do I need this".
I do believe the ipad is a want not a need and therefore it's penetration into the masses will be limited.
Sorry if this is a bit negative, but I do see the ipad this way for myself, I'd love one, but I don't actually need one (my MBP does sterling work).

The median income in US is 50,233 dollars.
Most people are doing fine.

Instead of cigarettes or drinking: buy an iPad.
post #16 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by saarek View Post

The iPhone 4S will give a nice bump to the figures today!

Nope.
Iphone4S was not released last quarter.

But if Apple misses Iphone4 targets, they can always tell the investors that they have sold upward 5 million. And this is just in a few countries. Iphone4S will be released in 70 countries in the world before years end.
post #17 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post

The analysis is talking about shipments, not sales.

This is how the analysts temper Apple's stock.

The stock should be at $550 so they keep it lower knowing that when the sales forecasts come in today they are forced to raise their targets, once more.

They make money off the volatility through shorting either way and if they see large purchases willing to sit on the stock they make jack squat for commissions.

Europe has Apple at $422.63.

We'll see Apple kiss $450 if the numbers are where any half-wit figures them to be.

It'll settle back down to around $435-440 by week's end.

On the other hand, if Google had anything remotely in the vicinity of Apple their stock jumps $50-$100 on such news.

The day when Google's ``Information is King'' theory runs dry will be a great day in the world of Computing.

If Apple wasn't the world largest market cap company, it would be valued totally different.

Just 2 years ago Apple had a P/E high 20is.
Today P/E 17 and trailing P/E2. Apple valuation is almost 50% less then 3 years ago.

Apple will today have 80-100 billion in cash. That is 20-25% of their share price!

Apple have an average growth of 63% last 5 years. P/E should be upwards 60-100 if it was valued as other companies. The problem is that Apple would be worth more then most countries in the world.
post #18 of 68
Less than 15 million would be a little disappointing (at least to me).

But still, it's just a bump in the road. Europe is in a real economic crisis and Apple hasn't added as many new stores in China as they had hoped. Plus there were fire sales last quarter as competitors liquidated inventory of their failed tablet efforts and that might have distracted some consumers. None of those things are permanent and Apple still totally dominates the market.

Longer term, the key sales figure is how many iPads apple sells between now and the introduction of Windows 8 tablets next year (I think those will be the real competitors to iPads -- not the lame Android copy-cats that we've seen so far). If Apple is selling about 25 million iPads per quarter (so an annualized rate of 100 million) at the time that Win8 tablets hit the market, then I think Apple will have achieved an insurmountable lead. But if Apple is selling in the range of 15 million per quarter at that time then MS could have an opening. My money is on the higher number.
post #19 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

Actually, if you read the story, it's more than the analysts are projecting.

What we have here is someone starting a rumor that the currently rumored Q4 sales will be short of the previous rumored Q4 sales. IOW, totally useless click bait.

It's not click bait, it's the usually stock manipulation that surrounds Apple's earnings reports. Analysts want volatility for their firms, or sometimes need to help drive the price up or down to cover positions they're taken. Look at most of their useless declarations - if accuracy mattered, they're be fired.

I guess the good news is that technically it's not a conflict of interest because colluding with the investment division of the company is in their overall interest and should be self-evident to people looking at their statements.
post #20 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by shompa View Post

The median income in US is 50,233 dollars.

Median income for men in the US (2009) is about $32,000 and women, $21,000. See Table 701, http://www.census.gov/compendia/stat...es/12s0701.pdf

You may be talking about the mean.
post #21 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

Stock manipulation story number ?

Like the "Apple will start paying dividends in next fiscal year" rumor?
post #22 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by shompa View Post

If Apple wasn't the world largest market cap company, it would be valued totally different.

Just 2 years ago Apple had a P/E high 20is.
Today P/E 17 and trailing P/E2. Apple valuation is almost 50% less then 3 years ago.

Apple will today have 80-100 billion in cash. That is 20-25% of their share price!

Apple have an average growth of 63% last 5 years. P/E should be upwards 60-100 if it was valued as other companies. The problem is that Apple would be worth more then most countries in the world.

Actually, Apple is already worth more than most countries in the world.

One way to value the stock is to back out the cash. So if P/E is 12 today and cash accounts for 25% of the value, you back out the cash and get a modified P/E of 9.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post

Less than 15 million would be a little disappointing (at least to me).

But still, it's just a bump in the road. Europe is in a real economic crisis and Apple hasn't added as many new stores in China as they had hoped. Plus there were fire sales last quarter as competitors liquidated inventory of their failed tablet efforts and that might have distracted some consumers. None of those things are permanent and Apple still totally dominates the market.

Longer term, the key sales figure is how many iPads apple sells between now and the introduction of Windows 8 tablets next year (I think those will be the real competitors to iPads -- not the lame Android copy-cats that we've seen so far). If Apple is selling about 25 million iPads per quarter (so an annualized rate of 100 million) at the time that Win8 tablets hit the market, then I think Apple will have achieved an insurmountable lead. But if Apple is selling in the range of 15 million per quarter at that time then MS could have an opening. My money is on the higher number.

Yeah, there's always something else that's going to give Apple a run for its money. Eventually, something will do so - but it's sort of silly to be making that prediction based on nothing but speculation.

At it is, Apple has an overwhelming majority of tablet sales. I don't believe the figures Digitimes is publishing - I don't think I've ever seen a non- Apple tablet in the wild (other than the older Windows tablets). The only tablet that seems to have sold in significant numbers is the $99 Touchpad - which is clearly not particularly relevant to Apple. Perhaps the Fire might have sold a lot, but, again, that's not really a competitor.
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
Reply
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
Reply
post #23 of 68
What really strikes me, is the 5.7Mio non iPad's, and yet I haven't seen a single one in the wild. In my region, they are sitting on shelfs collecting dust layers
post #24 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by shen View Post

If Apple reports something wild like 16 million, watch the heads explode, but 13.5 -14.5 is more likely...

The street expects 10 millions, anything above is good.
post #25 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Median income for men in the US (2009) is about $32,000 and women, $21,000. See Table 701, http://www.census.gov/compendia/stat...es/12s0701.pdf

You may be talking about the mean.

Look at the first table on the page you provided.

Median income for all families in 2009 was $60,088.

I'm not sure what the discrepancy is, but shompa actually UNDERestimated median family incomes, at least according to your own source.
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
Reply
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
Reply
post #26 of 68
deleted
post #27 of 68
Thanks for that. Got a chance to get some November calls $5 below where they should be. If you look at the Apple 2.0 blog, the 13MM number was the independent analysts consensus, so if history repeats itself they should be between 13.5 and 13.7MM.

Apple might have wanted to sell more, but after looking at my 3rd Quarter 401k statement it would have been a lofty goal. Without the BS in Washington and Europe, I imagine they would have sold closer to 15MM.
post #28 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacRulez View Post

Ah yes, the grand conspiracy.

They beat analysts' expectations and this is a bad thing?

Tough audience here today...

Read the article first. The analyst is not happy with +300% Y0Y growth.

The posters here have issues with the analyst trying to give the impression that 13 million iPads sold last quarter is not impressive. Hence the stock manipulation comments.
post #29 of 68
Expectations have become absurdly ridiculous.

New technologies used to take 12 to 18 months to achieve just 1 million units in sales from multiple manufacturers. Apple is selling iPads, a device that no one HAS to have, in the worst economy since the 1930s, with high levels of unemployment in most countries, at a current rate of 50 million units per year (assuming the 13 million can be extended to all quarters) and they sold 3-4 million iPhones in the first weekend as well?

These kinds of sales levels would have been considered absolutely impossible just five years ago even for totally new products, never mind for upgraded models of existing products. In fact, these would have been considered great ANNUAL sales numbers.

While I've been a big Apple fan for decades, even I thought that Apple was going to have a very rough time in the recession. Apple proves that even in a recession, consumers (at least those people who are still working) move to quality.

Because of this incredibly stupid report, I bet Apple stock drops today.
post #30 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by saarek View Post

The iPhone 4S will give a nice bump to the figures today!

Except for the fact that the financial reports today will not include the iPhone4S since it was released after the quarter ended. So WTF are you talking about?
post #31 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

Look at the first table on the page you provided.

Median income for all families in 2009 was $60,088.

I'm not sure what the discrepancy is, but shompa actually UNDERestimated median family incomes, at least according to your own source.

That's because most families have 2 working adults...so the median income for the family is the sum. Additionally, I am not sure how single adults are classified. It seems to me they are excluded, which again, pushes up the median family income.
post #32 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacRulez View Post


Tough audience here today...

Trolls, just as stupid.
post #33 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by xSamplex View Post

Two words, baby:

Amazon. Fire.

[insult removed]
post #34 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by studiomusic View Post

Wow! Look! Record sales and almost 40% sequential growth!!! Better than the industry by far.
But that's never enough for analysts huh?
How did they find out 'internal goals'?

# of orders received by Foxconn.

Of course, this may be true if the Digitimes rumor is to be believed.

Or, it could be some Apple employee getting drunk at a SF bar and spilling the beans.
post #35 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post

Less than 15 million would be a little disappointing (at least to me).

Why ?

A little perspective: 15 million is approximately the number of notebooks that HP AND Dell is selling per quarter.
post #36 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by studiomusic View Post

Wow! Look! Record sales and almost 40% sequential growth!!! Better than the industry by far.
But that's never enough for analysts huh?


From the article you are commenting on:

"In addition, if Apple were to have sold 13 million iPads last quarter, that number would exceed Wall Street expectations. In general, analysts have called for Apple to report sales of around 11 million iPads."

Maybe actually reading the article, and understanding the article, are steps to be taken prior to making snarky generic comments?

Naw. Please keep doing whatever you like to do.
post #37 of 68
deleted
post #38 of 68
Digitimes always says that whatever Apple shipped is below its internal target. The dumbest fucking publication I've ever seen. They just make shit up. What kind of journalism standards do they have there?
Andy M. Zaky
Bullish Cross
www.bullcross.com
Reply
Andy M. Zaky
Bullish Cross
www.bullcross.com
Reply
post #39 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


Buy, hold for the long haul, and forget about the quarter-to-quarter chatter. All noise.


Would that strategy have served you well in the year 2000 time frame? In a few quarters, the stock lost 75% of its value. It took many, many years to recover. Many other equally high-flying companies never recovered. One size does not fit all, and every high-flying company comes down to earth, often in the space of a very few calendar quarters.

It depends entirely upon how overweighted your portfolio is in the sector and the company. It depends whether AAPL is a core holding, or is part of your "play money". It depends on many, many factors.

But if you think just buying and forgetting is the way to manage a portfolio, go for it. Tell me - are your holdings 100% in AAPL? Why or why not?
post #40 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by shompa View Post

If Apple wasn't the world largest market cap company, it would be valued totally different.

Just 2 years ago Apple had a P/E high 20is.
Today P/E 17 and trailing P/E2. Apple valuation is almost 50% less then 3 years ago.

Apple will today have 80-100 billion in cash. That is 20-25% of their share price!

Apple have an average growth of 63% last 5 years. P/E should be upwards 60-100 if it was valued as other companies. The problem is that Apple would be worth more then most countries in the world.

Actually if you track the P/E of most companies in S&P, their P/E has been shrinking over the years. Apple is not alone. US stocks currently have very low PEG compared to a few years ago.

The reason is hard to be sure of, but probably because retail investors have been staying away from the market due to higher and higher volatility over the past few years.
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: iPad
  • Rumor: Apple shipped 13M iPads in Q3, short of internal forecasts
AppleInsider › Forums › Mobile › iPad › Rumor: Apple shipped 13M iPads in Q3, short of internal forecasts