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Apple profits jump 54% on record sales of 4.9M Macs, 11.2M iPads - Page 2

post #41 of 129
10/18/11 at 2:21pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

No clue what EPS means, but iPhone sales makes a lot of sense.

Four years of 12 month cycles got people on that kick. Makes sense that the quarter (being three months) after the end of that anticipated cycle saw far fewer iPhone sales as people were waiting for the new one.

EPS = Earnings per share. It's a little more complicated, but essentially it's a company's earnings divided by the average number of shares outstanding during the quarter. It's each shareholder's "share" of earnings. P/E is the stock price divided by EPS. Apple's P/E is relatively low compared to other technology companies.
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post #42 of 129
10/18/11 at 2:21pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slurpy View Post

I was stating facts, not sugarcoating anything. I'm having a very hard time seeing how this 'stinks' if you're looking at anything else besides analyst 'expectations'. Do they realize Apple didn't launch a new phone last quarter, as they always do? If they did, numbers would have blown away all fucking expectations. The December quarter will be insane. These analysts slobbered over themselves with expectations that weren't realistic at all, yet Apple is supposed to magically exceed whatever the hell they come up with? Right. They had $8 Billion more revenue than last year. That's perspective.

I have to ask what sort of `Dr.' this title stands for, because if it signifies a Ph.D in the hard sciences I'd have his revoked for mathematical incompetency, but I'm leaning towards Medicine and/or Clinical Psychology where bone-head Calc is the toughest class one takes for those fields of study.
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post #43 of 129
10/18/11 at 2:22pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post

Take those expectations and shove deep and hard.

The guidance they were given was $25 Billion for the quarter. They crushed their guidance. This is a short-seller scam and if anyone cannot see this they either are making a killing on it or too dense to figure it out.

You don't crush your year over year results and call it a disappointment, unless you're betting it to go down.

Not oddly, Morgan Stanley was one of the more bearish estimators and their target was under $27 Billion.

Good grief. Apple's guidance is always very low. Take another look at that table for $27b in revenue, and how far down the list you have to go to find an analyst predicting that number. Bottom third. What's more, the analysts who got that number close are not the ones who've been stars at predicting AAPL earnings in the past.

You call it a disappointment when it is a disappointment.
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post #44 of 129
10/18/11 at 2:23pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post

I have to ask what sort of `Dr.' this title stands for, because if it signifies a Ph.D in the hard sciences I'd have his revoked for mathematical incompetency, but I'm leaning towards Medicine and/or Clinical Psychology where bone-head Calc is the toughest class one takes for those fields of study.

Ad hominem attacks are just as annoying.
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post #45 of 129
10/18/11 at 2:24pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by msm859 View Post

Great news. Too bad they have become like every other greedy American corporation. Builds their products oversees to save a few dollars and for the regular troops here in the states they give them a 4% raise after a year - still not a livable wage. Let's see some real progress how about start building products back in the US and start paying a living wage.

Yeah, I'd love to see their earnings call after a move like that. Incredible how you would be so disconnected from reality as to advocate financial suicide. If there's no other way around it. Most of us, who aren't living in lala-land like yourself, recognize that producing their products in the US is an impossibility.
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post #46 of 129
10/18/11 at 2:24pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

You can't sugarcoat this no matter how much you try. It stinks.

Haha, the results are great! Some people crack me up.

This time last year, Apple posted revenue of $20.34 billion and now they post revenue of $28.27 billion! Yeah, that stinks! Terrible results. Here are the results interpreted through the eyes of a non delusional person and somebody who is not one of those analysts.

1. Mac sales - way higher than expected! Great news for all Mac users! Apple is not just about iOS.

2. iPhone sales - lower than some of the analysts expected. So fucking what? Apple sold 17 million instead of 19 according to the estimates. The iPhone 4 was nearing it's end of life. Selling 17 million of them in it's last quarter alive is fucking incredible! The Analysts should have factored that into their predictions. Are they dumb? They didn't do their job properly. The global economy also factors into the equation.

3. iPod sales were down. No shit! That was fully expected, they've been on the decline for a while now. iPods are done! Less and less people are buying iPods (except for iPod Touch) because their music is on iPhones and iPads instead.

4. iPad sales, 11 million! Fucking amazing! iPad rules! All hail the iPad! I pity the retarded fools who ever doubted the iPad.

Analysts are clueless people playing a pathetic guessing game with each other. It may be the first time since 2004 that Apple doesn't meet expectations, but I think that's a great thing! People expect way too much and these clueless idiots end up getting disappointed every time. A perfect example of that was when the iPhone 4S was announced. People start rumors, make up all sorts of lies and speculate about Apple because they want the stock to go up and down, so that they can make money off of it.

No matter how anybody looks at it, Apple is doing great!
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post #47 of 129
10/18/11 at 2:24pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post

I have to ask what sort of `Dr.' this title stands for, because if it signifies a Ph.D in the hard sciences I'd have his revoked for mathematical incompetency, but I'm leaning towards Medicine and/or Clinical Psychology where bone-head Calc is the toughest class one takes for those fields of study.

No, it signifies a joke that you don't get.

Try responding to the facts instead of attacking me personally and you might get points for something.
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post #48 of 129
10/18/11 at 2:25pm
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Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

You'll find your enjoyment of the site increases exponentially by blocking certain posters. The "Dr." made it early to my blocked list.

Thanks for the reminder...and done!
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post #49 of 129
10/18/11 at 2:27pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by thataveragejoe View Post

love how the headline ignores the big miss (first in 4 years) in expected EPS and iPhone sales.

Expected by whom. That is the question. Apple met its own numbers. TheStreet.com needs to quit adding a 50% multiplier to Apple's estimates.

Now they are zeroing in on who should be running Apple, what they should be doing with their cash etc etc bullshit.

Anal cysts all say however, they will buy some AAPL now at 395 and wait tomorrow and see how low it goes and buy some more, but buy in at under 400 looks good.

Gonna go read a book.
if you fight the rumors, you'll lose no matter what. What if a rumor is true and Apple fights it? or if Apple fights all rumors, but let's another rumor fly, does that mean it's the truth? Jungmark
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if you fight the rumors, you'll lose no matter what. What if a rumor is true and Apple fights it? or if Apple fights all rumors, but let's another rumor fly, does that mean it's the truth? Jungmark
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post #50 of 129
10/18/11 at 2:29pm
Well, now all we need is an Andy Zaky article to 'splain all this away...
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post #51 of 129
10/18/11 at 2:30pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jcoz View Post

I agree. Its unfortunate because I intended to sell my Apr calls after the announcement, because no matter what the stock is going to go down more in Nov and Dec before what will absolutely, without question, be Apple best quarter in the history of the company.

But that was just me being greedy I guess. I'll be sticking it out now until Jan, and I will have had an very good year in the market thanks to Apple.

You probably know better how to play the market than me. I'm extremely conservative, I buy on dips. So far though I've done very well this year doing that though.
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post #52 of 129
10/18/11 at 2:31pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by grmac View Post

Ad hominem attacks are just as annoying.

But way easier.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

Haha, the results are great! Some people crack me up.

This time last year, Apple posted revenue of $20.34 billion and now they post revenue of $28.27 billion! Yeah, that stinks! Terrible results. Here are the results interpreted through the eyes of a non delusional person and somebody who is not one of those analysts.

Nice try, but markets don't work that way. Check out the markets sometime if you don't believe me.

We saw AAPL climb to new highs this past week on expectations that they'd blow away the forecasts, as they have done so many times recently. Nobody complained about or slammed the analysts because they were optimistic. Now that Apple has failed (for the first time in years) to beat their expectations, the fault is (wait for it) with the analysts. Funny how that works -- in a sad sort of way.
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post #53 of 129
10/18/11 at 2:34pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by shawnb View Post

Well, now all we need is an Andy Zaky article to 'splain all this away...

Andy doesn't live here anymore. You will now have to pay to see his explanation for how he got it so wrong.
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post #54 of 129
10/18/11 at 2:36pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

Good grief. Apple's guidance is always very low. Take another look at that table for $27b in revenue, and how far down the list you have to go to find an analyst predicting that number. Bottom third. What's more, the analysts who got that number close are not the ones who've been stars at predicting AAPL earnings in the past.

You call it a disappointment when it is a disappointment.

Anyone in the know takes into account Apple's numbers and acts accordingly (yes they tend in general to be conservative). The analysts have no clue. Believe me, I live in NYC and know plenty of wall streeters.

Anyone who looks to them for guidance deserves to be disappointed.
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post #55 of 129
10/18/11 at 2:36pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by shawnb View Post

Well, now all we need is an Andy Zaky article to 'splain all this away...

I'm not concerned. Their profitability doesn't lie and next quarter will blow the roof off.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #56 of 129
10/18/11 at 2:39pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

Ouch. The crappy global economy has finally reached Apple.

I agree with your point that the EPS is a clear miss relative to expectations. (Apple also does not do mid-quarter expectations-management with WS like many companies do, and they may lost an opportunity to talk things down; but there are pros and cons to doing that....).

But care to explain the point about the 'global economy'? What specifically about the global economy 'finally reached' Apple?
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post #57 of 129
10/18/11 at 2:39pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Someone makes money on both sides of a trade. I have no plans to sell anytime soon... or in the long term, for that matter.

Respectfully,

In the long term we'll all be dead.
if you fight the rumors, you'll lose no matter what. What if a rumor is true and Apple fights it? or if Apple fights all rumors, but let's another rumor fly, does that mean it's the truth? Jungmark
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if you fight the rumors, you'll lose no matter what. What if a rumor is true and Apple fights it? or if Apple fights all rumors, but let's another rumor fly, does that mean it's the truth? Jungmark
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post #58 of 129
10/18/11 at 2:42pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

EPS was lower than the street consensus, and that's the only thing that matters. The first big miss in many years.

Agreed. After the dust settles there might be a buying opportunity... I'm quite sure that the holiday quarter will be on target, considering that this was mainly an iPhone miss and the iPad2 seems to still be selling quite well.

[on edit: margins were still very good]
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post #59 of 129
10/18/11 at 2:43pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

You'll find your enjoyment of the site increases exponentially by blocking certain posters. The "Dr." made it early to my blocked list.

Great idea. He has been irritating me for a while.
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post #60 of 129
10/18/11 at 2:45pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by macnyc View Post

You probably know better how to play the market than me. I'm extremely conservative, I buy on dips. So far though I've done very well this year doing that though.

Probably not. Still learning. I made the mistake of getting caught up in estimates, when for my own investing purposes, I always knew this quarter would be lower than last quarter before the monster in Jan.

Got to this week and let myself betray my good senses by holding on through the earnings call. That's no knock on Apple's quarter, thats just understanding that the market is emotional entity that reacts predictably in SOME cases. This was one of them.

In the end we all know where apple will be in early 2012, I just missed a little opportunity to cash in on peoples poor judgements tonight and tomorrow and certainly in Late Nov-Dec. End of the day I should be sitting at a 300% gain. Not going to bang my head against the wall because it wasn't 400-500%.

To be honest though, I am now a bit worried in that Apple has set the bar ridiculously high in guidence for next quarters results, and I now may have to reconsider whether I will sell before or after the earnings in Jan.
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post #61 of 129
10/18/11 at 2:52pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kibitzer View Post

From a strategic standpoint, I'm much more interested in gross margin, which came in at 40.3%. That's still a top-tier number and shows the operating side continues well under control.

If anybody has bothered to look at the company's revenue and EPS forecast for the coming holiday quarter, it's going to be a barn-burner, even considering it will span 14 weeks rather than 13. Look for a selloff in the short-term and a great buying opportunity.

The margin numbers are good. I noticed that. I'd be more concerned if they were weaker. Company forecasts aren't worth much, but if the reflexively conservative projections from Apple are high for next quarter, then the damage from this report could be limited. Here's hoping.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Slurpy View Post

I was stating facts, not sugarcoating anything. I'm having a very hard time seeing how this 'stinks' if you're looking at anything else besides analyst 'expectations'. Do they realize Apple didn't launch a new phone last quarter, as they always do? If they did, numbers would have blown away all fucking expectations. The December quarter will be insane. These analysts slobbered over themselves with expectations that weren't realistic at all, yet Apple is supposed to magically exceed whatever the hell they come up with? Right. They had $8 Billion more revenue than last year. That's perspective.

Because in the markets, expectations are everything. If this is seen as a trend, or just a hiccup, investors will react accordingly. You can't expect anything better or worse from the markets.

BTW, this is a post I made in another thread hours before this earnings report was released:

http://forums.appleinsider.com/showt...96#post1968578

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jcoz View Post

What explanation do you expect from them? What numbers in particular do you need to draw a conclusion, given that you already know they've sold 4M iphones in the last week not counting 3GS or 4's sold?

Your conclusion that its global economy hitting apple doesn't make a lick of sense with the numbers you've already got.

As others have suggested, Apple might explain that iPhone sales were under what they might have been because of the transition. Stuff like that. Expressions of confidence from the company that they aren't actually seeing a reduction in the rate of growth of their key product are helpful, because that's the kind of thing investors worry about.
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post #62 of 129
10/18/11 at 2:54pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

Yes, they are precisely that. If you can't even beat the conservative street consensus for earnings, then that is spelled B-A-D, and it doesn't matter if the company is Apple or GE or Intel or anybody else.

You're missing one point. Apple's guidance was $25 M in revenues and $5 EPS. They told the Street that it would be a slow quarter. So they actually beat their revenue guidance by 10% and EPS by 40%. It's not their fault that analysts are idiots.

Furthermore, with Apple's track record, it's ridiculous to panic over one quarter - especially when Apple said it would be slow and had reasons for it. At that point, you're no longer an analyst or investor, you're a day trader.
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post #63 of 129
10/18/11 at 2:54pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

Ouch. The crappy global economy has finally reached Apple.

The economy is about buying and selling goods and services. It doesn't have to be how much you sell but just that you sell.
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post #64 of 129
10/18/11 at 2:55pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by thataveragejoe View Post

love how the headline ignores the big miss (first in 4 years) in expected EPS and iPhone sales.

Guidance was 25 billion revenue, EPS $5.5. Sequentially iPhone sales were down because of the transition as they predicted.
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post #65 of 129
10/18/11 at 3:00pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jcoz View Post

Probably not. Still learning. I made the mistake of getting caught up in estimates, when for my own investing purposes, I always knew this quarter would be lower than last quarter before the monster in Jan.

Got to this week and let myself betray my good senses by holding on through the earnings call. That's no knock on Apple's quarter, thats just understanding that the market is emotional entity that reacts predictably in SOME cases. This was one of them.

In the end we all know where apple will be in early 2012, I just missed a little opportunity to cash in on peoples poor judgements tonight and tomorrow and certainly in Late Nov-Dec. End of the day I should be sitting at a 300% gain. Not going to bang my head against the wall because it wasn't 400-500%.

To be honest though, I am now a bit worried in that Apple has set the bar ridiculously high in guidence for next quarters results, and I now may have to reconsider whether I will sell before or after the earnings in Jan.

Yes, there always seems to be a dip after earning calls regardless of the numbers. People like you cashing in I guess
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post #66 of 129
10/18/11 at 3:01pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by brianloftus View Post

Guidance was 25 billion revenue, EPS $5.5. Sequentially iPhone sales were down because of the transition as they predicted.

Guidance for next quarter was given at 37 Billion! Personally I expected a huge quarter, the best they will have ever had to date, but I don't know that they could beat that by very much, if at all.

If analysts run wild with THOSE numbers, no way am I holding onto my calls through next quarters earnings calls.
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post #67 of 129
10/18/11 at 3:03pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

I agree with your point that the EPS is a clear miss relative to expectations. (Apple also does not do mid-quarter expectations-management with WS like many companies do, and they may lost an opportunity to talk things down; but there are pros and cons to doing that....).

But care to explain the point about the 'global economy'? What specifically about the global economy 'finally reached' Apple?

Apple seemed to be immune from the slow global growth over the past three years, always exceeding expectations (often by a lot). Weak consumer spending was bound to cut into Apple's growth rates somewhere, some time. Maybe it has here and now. Growing earnings at 50% a year is tough to sustain when global GDP growth is in single digits. First reaction, anyway.

Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Agreed. After the dust settles there might be a buying opportunity... I'm quite sure that the holiday quarter will be on target, considering that this was mainly an iPhone miss and the iPad2 seems to still be selling quite well.

[on edit: margins were still very good]

Yes on margins. That and the guidance for next quarter are silver linings.

I don't do buying opportunities, at least not on AAPL. I already have way too much.
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post #68 of 129
10/18/11 at 3:05pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by macnyc View Post

Yes, there always seems to be a dip after earning calls regardless of the numbers. People like you cashing in I guess

Lol. I have long call's not stock. So it's a little different.

With a market like this its bound to go down and up a few times in between earnings. Wait until the Fed Budget Cut talks heat up this winter (among plenty of other news as well). Wouldn't surprise me at all to see apple at $370 around Nov-Dec.

But I fully expect them to be past $450 in Jan.
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post #69 of 129
10/18/11 at 3:10pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

Maybe it has here and now.

I think it has more to do with the very long update time for the new iPhone and everybody in the world knew that a new one was right around the corner, so understandably, more people are going to hold off on buying the old one that was soon to be replaced.
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post #70 of 129
10/18/11 at 3:12pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

You're missing one point. Apple's guidance was $25 M in revenues and $5 EPS. They told the Street that it would be a slow quarter. So they actually beat their revenue guidance by 10% and EPS by 40%. It's not their fault that analysts are idiots.

Furthermore, with Apple's track record, it's ridiculous to panic over one quarter - especially when Apple said it would be slow and had reasons for it. At that point, you're no longer an analyst or investor, you're a day trader.

I haven't missed that. No company impresses investors by beating their own guidance, and not especially Apple, which as you know, has always guided very low.

Who's panicing? This quarterly report is a disappointment. It really can't be sliced or diced any other way. I don't see the point of denying reality. As an investor I have to gut it out and move on.
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post #71 of 129
10/18/11 at 3:16pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jcoz View Post

Lol. I have long call's not stock. So it's a little different.

With a market like this its bound to go down and up a few times in between earnings. Wait until the Fed Budget Cut talks heat up this winter (among plenty of other news as well). Wouldn't surprise me at all to see apple at $370 around Nov-Dec.

But I fully expect them to be past $450 in Jan.

I think $370 is being very optimistic. I see AAPL going much lower than $370 (albeit slowly) over the next couple of months.
We know where you are. We know where youve been. We can more or less know what youre thinking about. - Eric Schmidt
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post #72 of 129
10/18/11 at 3:18pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

I think it has more to do with the very long update time for the new iPhone and everybody in the world knew that a new one was right around the corner, so understandably, more people are going to hold off on buying the old one that was soon to be replaced.

Could be. The conference call should be interesting.
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post #73 of 129
10/18/11 at 3:20pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

I think $370 is being very optimistic. I see AAPL going much lower than $370 (albeit slowly) over the next couple of months.

MUCH lower? Not sure about that. It would take a big run of bad world news to drive apple back below $350, which is what you seem to be implying.
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post #74 of 129
10/18/11 at 3:20pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Retrogusto View Post

...and the stock is down on this news. Meanwhile, Amazon is trading at a P/E ratio of 107, more than 6 times that of AAPL. Do we think that Amazon's profits will be up more than 300% this quarter?

No, Amazon will not be able to match expected revenue with a P/E of 107., but Wall Street does not care. They will continue to allow Amazon shares to rise and continue to outperform Apple shares easily. Amazon is one of Wall Street's sweetheart stocks. Their numbers aren't even close to Apple's but there are probably a lot of influential investors in Amazon and they're getting a free pass.

Apparently somebody feels that Jeff Bezos can do no wrong despite the company being priced above perfection. Other than being protected by some faction on Wall Street, I can't possibly see how Amazon keeps beating Apple quarter after quarter. Apple P/E continues to shrink while Amazon's P/E continues to expand. I've seen Amazon miss numbers, drop and in a week be back up roaring with plenty of momentum. It seems fishy to me, but hey, what do I know.
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post #75 of 129
10/18/11 at 3:21pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

Could be. The conference call should be interesting.

Conference call is over. Tim confirmed a few times that the iphone was the transition they referred to and they expected an even larger dip in iphone sales than they ended up with.
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post #76 of 129
10/18/11 at 3:24pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by shawnb View Post

Well, now all we need is an Andy Zaky article to 'splain all this away...

That Andy Zaky is a muppet,I knew something was up when I saw his high EPS.
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post #77 of 129
10/18/11 at 3:28pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jcoz View Post

MUCH lower? Not sure about that. It would take a big run of bad world news to drive apple back below $350, which is what you seem to be implying.

We'll see.
We know where you are. We know where youve been. We can more or less know what youre thinking about. - Eric Schmidt
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post #78 of 129
10/18/11 at 3:28pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jcoz View Post

Conference call is over. Tim confirmed a few times that the iphone was the transition they referred to and they expected an even larger dip in iphone sales than they ended up with.

Just read that myself. We'll have to let that sink in for awhile and see what happens.
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post #79 of 129
10/18/11 at 3:30pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

Just read that myself. We'll have to let that sink in for awhile and see what happens.

As I already siad in this thread, I'm still trying to let Apples estimates for Q1 sink in. That's what is still blowing my mind and I read it almost an hour ago.
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post #80 of 129
10/18/11 at 3:35pm
The real story: Apple is now a $100+ billion / year revenue company and its profits for the fiscal year that just ended ($26 billion) are in the top 20 of all time record annual profits by a company in the history of mankind. Apple is now in the realm of oil companies when it comes to profitability. They've left the tech industry far, far behind.
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