AT&T sees iPhone 3GS sellouts, expects legacy model to expand smartphone base - Page 2

[QUOTE=StigsHero;1971201]
Thats exactly right. The "rule of thumb" only existed because of the weakness of the 1G and the 3G. The jump in speed to the 3GS was immense - much more obvious than the jump in speed from the 4 to the 4S.

It will get software updates until they need to discontinue it. That won't happened until they get a lower end model.



Try a proper argument. The 3GS is a form factor - a low end iPhone without a retina display. No need for the absurd iPhone mini when the component costs of a 3GS are heading south go $100. If it needs a new processor, it will get one. See it as an iBook of iPhones.


Those prices are subsidised prices on one carrier ( or a cartel of carriers) in one country, using one currency. As I keep pointing out. I can get the iPhone 4S for free, but I don't think it is free.

As it happens the actual price of the 3GS is $375 unlocked.

When the next iteration of phones comes out:

The 3GS will drop to $250-$375 unlocked. The iPhone 4 will be free on contract, but $375 unlocked ( in the US) and so on up.

Your rule of thumb is ludicrous, based on the sales patterns of a new product in it's early iterations. You also predicted, as far as I recall, the certain demise of the 3GS with the release of the 4S ( or 5, as we thought then). That too was based on a rule of thumb - Apple has done this before, it only ever has two models, thats the rule of thumb.

Well now it has 3 models. Some day it will have 4 models. You will be wrong again, but unrepentant. In fact faced with the success of a product, the fact that it has sold out on a carrier which is also selling out of the top line model, you still think it will be replaced.

Apple know all about price elasticity - they mentioned in the conference call, and cook wants the other 95% - they are heading down to the lower end of the market with the 3GS, and to a higher end with the new product - the 5. Which will maintain margins and sell more stuff, which is the game they are in.

It will get software updates until they need to discontinue it. That won't happened until they get a lower end model.



Try a proper argument. The 3GS is a form factor - a low end iPhone without a retina display. No need for the absurd iPhone mini when the component costs of a 3GS are heading south go $100. If it needs a new processor, it will get one. See it as an iBook of iPhones.


Those prices are subsidised prices on one carrier ( or a cartel of carriers) in one country, using one currency. As I keep pointing out. I can get the iPhone 4S for "free" where I live.

As it happens the actual price of the 3GS is $375 unlocked.

When the next iteration of phones comes out:

The 3GS will drop to $250-$375 unlocked. The iPhone 4 will be free on contract, but $375 unlocked ( in the US) and so on up.

Your rule of thumb is ludicrous, based on the sales patterns of a new product in it's early iterations. You also predicted, as far as I recall, the certain demise of the 3GS with the release of the 4S ( or 5, as we thought then). That too was based on a rule of thumb - Apple has done this before, it only ever has two models, thats the rule of thumb.

Well now it has 3 models. Some day it will have 4 models. You will be wrong again, but unrepentant. In fact faced with the success of a product, the fact that it has sold out on a carrier which is also selling out of the top line model, you still think it will be replaced.

Apple know all about price elasticity - they mentioned in the conference call, and cook wants the other 95% - they are heading down to the lower end of the market with the 3GS, and to a higher end with the new product - the 5. Which will maintain margins and sell more stuff, which is the game they are in.

No, it won't. It hasn't for the last two and a half years, it didn't despite the rumors that said it would, and it won't a year from now.


At some point, it becomes stupid to sell a phone that can no longer run modern software. Apple has never sold a product that cannot run modern software at the same time as another that can.


Yeah. They'll start paying people to take iPhone 3GS' off their hands. They'll have to; no one would want a fresh-from-the-factory iPhone that can't run the newest software available.


Okay.


Yep. Worked for the iPod mini.

No arugment, Just a statement of a biased opinion, presented without fact. Nobody is expecting an increase in processor in the 3GS for about two years. It is fast enough o handle iOS 5 and will be fast enough to handle iOS 6. After that it may get one. In fact it's processor is not much less powerful than the iPhone 4 which was not sold as a speed upgrade.


Which is why it may get a processor upgrade in the far future. You remember the part where I said that the 3GS would be the low end model without a retina display? That. It is the absence of the retina display which will make it cheap.


The only reason you bang on about the "latest software not running" is because you, having created this straw man argument want to beat it to death. As I said, if it needs a processor upgrade it will get one, but it probably won't.


Replaced by another model. They might replace the 3GS with an even cheaper model next year, but that would mean creating two changes in form factor in the same year. As we have seen that makes their ability to ramp an order of magnitude more difficult. And making phones smaller is harder - battery sizes etc.

Give up on the rule of thumb nonsense. You were opposed to the continuation of the 3GS, and now that it is selling like hot cakes you are opposed to its continuation next year. I have no idea where this angst over the cheaper model continuing comes from, it doesn't reduce the value of your purchase one whit.



Next year you will be wrong again.

You want a straw man? How about the completely unfounded and nonsensical idea that a three year old phone will get a PROCESSOR UPGRADE?!

To the rest of that nonsense, When the 3GS is discontinued, the 4 will be free, the 4S will be $99, and the 6 will be $199. As I just said. Why is this difficult to imagine happening?

It seems to me that if they decide to release a phone that is virtually identical to the current iPhone 3GS but for a CPU (and possible RAM) upgrade, then it would not actually be an iPhone 3GS anymore -- it'd be something else, and would be given a different name.

Maybe Apple might feel inclined to produce such a device, or maybe they might just decide to swap it out in favour of selling the iPhone 4 in the equivalent price point. I don't know. But one thing that would definitely not happen, would be to upgrade the CPU (and possibly RAM) while continuing to give it the same name.

Yes, the numbers will change to model names.

Not buying it. Apple likes to keep things neat and tidy, and historically have not shied away from forcing their customer's hands by eliminating hardware and software that lags behind their vision.

Keeping a 3, 4 or 5 year old phone on the market to hit a price point isn't very Apple-like, and keeping the case design to save a few bucks while updating the internals doesn't either.

It really seems a lot more likely that the iPhone 4 will be slotted into the current 3gs position when the iPhone 5 is released, which gives Apple the same range of products as they have now but all of which will be on the same page tech wise. All retina displays in the lineup mean fewer developer headaches, more consistent app behavior, and cleaner path to transitioning apps to the iPad.

Your main argument seems to be that Apple needs an even cheaper phone off contract and that selling something without a Retina screen gives them the opportunity to do so, but you have to assume the unit costs of Retina displays are dropping every quarter and will give Apple sufficient headroom to make pricing adjustments anyway. I mean, Apple could sell a really cheap phone if they only included 4GB of flash memory, a 500 GHz processor, an actually shitty screen, etc., but they're obviously not going to that, so I'm not seeing where they hang on to a device that the relentless advancements in the state of the art will presently render grossly substandard, just so they have something inexpensive to sell. When has Apple ever done that?

The 3,4, or 5 year old phone is a straw man. I continually have to point out that the 3GS, ( or whatever it is renamed to ) will the lower end model.. So see my argument as this : Apple will have a lower end model, probably based on the 3GS chassis, and screen. If you feel they won't have a lower end model, you are wrong. If you think they will have a lower end model - and I mean one which, off contract, is lower than $375 by $100+ - then state why they would build a different design, this one being so cheap?

And like other lower end models - like the iBook, or MacBook - all that matters is that it has lesser components than the higher or middle models. A lesser screen. Less memory. A slower processor. Whatever.


The people making this claim are the people who poo-pooed the idea of the 3GS would even continue, because Apple always had 2 models before and will always have 2 models for ever and ever. And ever and ever. Because Apple are a conservative company doing the same thing sine 1692, apparently.

Apple needs an entry level phone. It might produce a new lower end model. It probably will keep the chassis of the 3GS. Easier to build.

(also your technical understanding is shite: retina does not help with the iPad, as retina graphics are not used when you pixel double on the iPad - Apple does this so that people redesign their apps for the iPad, and the "problems" with retina and non-retina displays have been solved. )


Not equivalent. A 400Ghz processor will be retrograde, as is a 4GB flash memory model. Why? Because no competitor is going so low spec. On the other hand the retina display is as it stands, a high end feature. In terms of PPI I think one Android phone ( maybe two) comes close, so the vast majority of smart phones are non-retina. Apple would hardly be shaming it's brand by having the 3GS screen as it's low end model going forward. There is no need for retina across the Apple line, no more than there is need for high end graphic cards in the Mac Book.

The 3GS is selling. It is sold out. It will be selling next year at $100 less, and will probably become the higher selling model of iPhones; the market is becoming commodified.

Just hilarious listening to all these people thinking Apple will drop the 3GS because ... Well, for a bunch of random reasons. Because suddenly they have a rule that they only keep 2 - no now it is 3 - models. Or because it will be more than three years old!!!! Omg, three years! Or because when the 4 is free on contract, then why keep the 3GS; this one is so USA centric its a little bit sad (see below). Or because it doesn't havd retina, and that makes it harder to develop.

Look, Apple maximises profit margins. There are several hundred million prospective customers wanting to get the cheapest possible iPhone in the next few years. But guess what, they don't live in the USA. Apple will look at what's planned for iOS 6. They will see if it can run on 3GS. If they can make that happen without a major overhang they will. And they will sell millions of them. And their coffers will groan.

Agreed! Thats why I love my jailbroken iPhone on T-Mobile. Though if T-mobile got the iPhone i would have happily bought it though them and signed a 2-year.