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UBS estimates 42.5M iPhones to be sold worldwide in holiday quarter

post #1 of 33
Thread Starter 
Investment bank UBS on Friday estimated that sales of Apple's iPhone will top 42.5M units worldwide, boosted by international iPhone 4S launches.

In a note issued to investors, analyst Maynard Um calls the firm's CY4Q forecast of 28 million worldwide iPhone sales conservative, estimating that upcoming international launches of the iPhone 4S could aid in more than doubling last quarter's 17 million sales.

Um notes, however, that international adoption of Apple's newest handset could be slow when compared to the U.S. given that Siri, the 4S-exclusive voice-recognition feature, only supports English, French and German. Despite the software's current limitation, the analyst believes the initial 28 million unit estimate to be conservative.

In CY3Q the U.S./international iPhone sales split was roughly 27.5% and 72.5% respectively. Um expects 11.7 million iPhones to be sold domestically in the upcoming quarter, and calculates that a split similar to last quarter's would imply about 42.5 million worldwide sales.

"While the timing of the 70 (of 105) country launches could have some impact on sales ahead of the launch, the split, and hence, our estimates look conservative," Um said.

The analyst writes that if Apple is able to manufacture and sell the estimated 42.5 million units, earnings per share of the company's stock would drive an incremental $3.09 to the estimated $9.47 for the December quarter. This equates to about $0.24 EPS for every 1 million units sold.

In their recent FY4Q earnings reports, both AT&T and Verizon corroborated Apple's claim that anticipation of the the iPhone 4S release slowed sales, causing the company to miss analysts' expectations for the last quarter of the 2011 fiscal year. However, given the new handset's record-breaking U.S rollout, incremental international launches and the addition of new partners like Sprint and regional carrier C-Spire, Um gives Apple a 12 month buy rating with a price target of $510.
post #2 of 33
I agree.
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post #3 of 33
I'd be surprised if they could make that many.
post #4 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwmac View Post

I am one of those sales, I just hope Apple doesn't take get the wrong message from those high numbers and think we are all happy with the smallish display. I really wanted at least a 4" display and 4.3" would be even better.

The problem with large displays, combined with a case, is that it becomes nearly impossible to use one-handed, unless your thumb is freakishly long. I suppose this is, in part, why they added Siri!

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post #5 of 33
Absolutely insane.
post #6 of 33
"The analyst writes that if Apple is able to manufacture and sell the estimated 42.5 million units, earnings per share of the company's stock would rise an incremental $3.09 to an estimated $9.47 for the December quarter. This equates to about $0.24 EPS for every 1 million units sold."

I would like to see this guy's financial model that spits out $9.47/Sh on 42.5M iPhones. My model, which is pretty good puts earnings at nearly $15/sh if they sold that many iPhones.
post #7 of 33
Here we go again.

Analysts pulling ridiculous numbers out of their anal regions and creating a frenzy of uninformed people. Then, when Apple fails to meet their absurd figures, we'll get another round of "Apple misses targets" garbage - even if Apple is 20% above their guidance.

What they need to do is license these idiots. And every time they are significantly off on their projections, they get a few points. Enough points, and they lose their analyst license. It would certainly help to get rid of the insanity.
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post #8 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwmac View Post

I am one of those sales, I just hope Apple doesn't take get the wrong message from those high numbers and think we are all happy with the smallish display. I really wanted at least a 4" display and 4.3" would be even better.

Are you sure you want an iPhone?
post #9 of 33
Here's the real reason for absurdly high quarterly results that drove the stock down 25+ dollars.

They know this is coming and want a high pay day when it arrives so drive that stock down and get on it when it rides to the top.
post #10 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

Here we go again.

Analysts pulling ridiculous numbers out of their anal regions and creating a frenzy of uninformed people. Then, when Apple fails to meet their absurd figures, we'll get another round of "Apple misses targets" garbage - even if Apple is 20% above their guidance.

What they need to do is license these idiots. And every time they are significantly off on their projections, they get a few points. Enough points, and they lose their analyst license. It would certainly help to get rid of the insanity.

... and now, if Apple "only" sells 30 million the headlines will say, "Slowing iPhone Sales A Problem for Apple".
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post #11 of 33
I think they will have enough to sell because I believe one of the primary reasons for the "more than a year for an update" is because they wanted an extra measure of cushion so the supply/demand would be met for the holiday season worldwide. Probably got two months more of a head start compared to the release of the original iP4.

Why does Apple bashing and trolling make people feel so good?

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post #12 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

Here we go again.

Analysts pulling ridiculous numbers out of their anal regions and creating a frenzy of uninformed people. Then, when Apple fails to meet their absurd figures, we'll get another round of "Apple misses targets" garbage - even if Apple is 20% above their guidance.

What they need to do is license these idiots. And every time they are significantly off on their projections, they get a few points. Enough points, and they lose their analyst license. It would certainly help to get rid of the insanity.

I agree 100%. This guy needs to be slapped in the mouth. What an @$$!!*(=!!!!
post #13 of 33
This is the new game. Over guess the stock so it continuously disappoints.

I'd love to see Oppenheimer grow a set and rail these analysts back instead of joyously exclaiming what an "awesome " "best ever" qtr they had and gush about it.


take these analysts on the earnings call to task. personally ream their records. WTF can the analysts do but get lambasted? they can't black ball apple more than they do with their lazy incorrect manipulation saturated analysis... which has been going on for years. Definitely, Tim cook should also put in his input. He seems like the kind of guy who could waste them in a tit for tat.

But, until apple fights this shit back- it's going to always produce a new game after apple works hard to put it to rest. Rinse repeat.
post #14 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

Here we go again.

Analysts pulling ridiculous numbers out of their anal regions and creating a frenzy of uninformed people. Then, when Apple fails to meet their absurd figures, we'll get another round of "Apple misses targets" garbage - even if Apple is 20% above their guidance.

What they need to do is license these idiots. And every time they are significantly off on their projections, they get a few points. Enough points, and they lose their analyst license. It would certainly help to get rid of the insanity.

So, is 42.5 million iPhones the new expectation? If Apple doesn't reach that number the stock will tank? I'm only saying. Apple didn't set this figure as the guidance but the analyst can whether it's even possible to build that many iPhones in the quarter. This is just total BS that Apple shareholders have to put up with.
post #15 of 33
This is the third freaking time that Apple has gotten over $400 and then taken an almost $40 drop each time. I don't think this drop has reach it's lowest level yet. I'm curious to see if it drops another $8 to reach that $40 drop. Those hedge funds are really churning this freaking stock. The market up decently to day and Apple was down. WTF. If the market drops tomorrow, Apple is almost guaranteed to drop another $8. I'm sorry, but it seems just too consistent to be a coincidence.

People talk about how great Apple is and how much money they're making, but seriously, over the past 52 weeks, both IBM and Amazon shares are outperforming Apple shares. Amazon is making Apple stock look positively crappy by comparison. I don't quite understand how, but it's true. If someone would care to explain how, I'd love to hear it.
post #16 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

This is the third freaking time that Apple has gotten over $400 and then taken an almost $40 drop each time.

Buy on the rumor, sell on the news.
post #17 of 33
Anybody investing in Apple has to do their own DD. Would you like to own the business at the current valuation over the long term? Does their balance sheet and income statement, cash flow look real? Do you know their products? Do you like their products and future potential products? Have you visited their shop? How does their product fare against the competition? With PE in the low teens and enterprise PE at 10, would rather own this company or SP-500 or cash?

Yes, there are risks. The big one is that the US, EU and Japanese debts are one big Ponzi scheme. The competition of Android is another... however, Apple now has a well integrated product like with the iPhone, iPad, Mac, AppleTV, and even the iPod touch... all tied to iCloud. My system runs very smooth and is relatively secure. Even the Mac is gaining market share.
post #18 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by poke View Post

I'd be surprised if they could make that many.

To double production, Apple would have to plan long advance... that means stocking up on the supply chain with everything from the case, display, components, etc. More difficult would be to get assembly plants to ramp up to double the capacity.

However, the business risks at this stage are too hi for the company to risk a huge build up in inventory... unless they are willing to sign up China Mobile, China Unicom, China Telecom in a big way. I would say that China Mobile would be a challenge with their TD-SCDMA network.
post #19 of 33
While I agree that analysts are a bunch of idiots with an agenda, I don't think he is far off.

Last quarter saw a slowdown due to the new iPhone rumors, so lets take the FQ3 as a baseline. They sold over 20m in that quarter.

This quarter
- it's the holiday quarter, which always handily beats the biggest quarter of the previous fiscal year
- They are adding a bunch of new carriers
- They are accelerating the iPhone 4S roll-out compared to last year
- They obviously have more inventory and production capacity this time, resulting in less sellout of the 4s, lower lead times for orders after the release and doubling of last years first weekend sales
- They lowered the price of the cheapest available iPhone and the 3Gs is already selling in record numbers according to AT&T
- They are clearing inventory of iPhone 4 16/32GB at reduced prices
- They are selling iPhones un-locked in more markets, which is important for prepaid customers, which make out almost half the market outside of the US
- Growth in Asia is accelerating at mind-blowing numbers

Take all that together and I can easily see 40m.
post #20 of 33
In a previous post I did a crude mock up of Q1 2012 earnings. Imagine the following, but increase phone shipments to 42.5 M. Maybe reduce the average selling price by $150.

27 M iPhones at $700 = 18.9 B
15 M iPads at $600 = 9 B
5.5 M Macs at $1300 = 8.25 B
iTunes = 2 B
Software = 2 B (wild guess have never studied the Apple earnings in depth )

Total > $40 B.


Want to be as good as any analyst or blogger (indie)?

1. Make a spreasheet with the above data.
2. Adjust the unit sales based on your own feeling.
3. Adjust the ASPs (prices) to something closer to what is reported by Apple. As opposed to my guesses here.
4. Add a row to your spreadsheet for profits (use similar methods).
5. Update your spreadsheet quarterly.
post #21 of 33
I predict that UBS is going to earn a billion dollars a share this quarter. If they don't, I'm going to submit an article to the Wall Street Journal reporting that they missed their target by a HUGE margin.
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post #22 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

This is the third freaking time that Apple has gotten over $400 and then taken an almost $40 drop each time. I don't think this drop has reach it's lowest level yet. I'm curious to see if it drops another $8 to reach that $40 drop. Those hedge funds are really churning this freaking stock. The market up decently to day and Apple was down. WTF. If the market drops tomorrow, Apple is almost guaranteed to drop another $8. I'm sorry, but it seems just too consistent to be a coincidence.

People talk about how great Apple is and how much money they're making, but seriously, over the past 52 weeks, both IBM and Amazon shares are outperforming Apple shares. Amazon is making Apple stock look positively crappy by comparison. I don't quite understand how, but it's true. If someone would care to explain how, I'd love to hear it.

Exactly. This is why I stopped buying other companies' stock in 1980. I only invest in my own ventures.

Wall Street is populated by B-School Grads who never spent a day in their lives working in a real factory or in a company that produces anything other than reports. Why would you expect them to know anything about manufacturing??
post #23 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacRR View Post

This is the new game. Over guess the stock so it continuously disappoints.

I'd love to see Oppenheimer grow a set and rail these analysts back instead of joyously exclaiming what an "awesome " "best ever" qtr they had and gush about it.


take these analysts on the earnings call to task. personally ream their records. WTF can the analysts do but get lambasted? they can't black ball apple more than they do with their lazy incorrect manipulation saturated analysis... which has been going on for years. Definitely, Tim cook should also put in his input. He seems like the kind of guy who could waste them in a tit for tat.

But, until apple fights this shit back- it's going to always produce a new game after apple works hard to put it to rest. Rinse repeat.

An earnings call is not the proper forum for that.
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post #24 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by AjitMD View Post

To double production, Apple would have to plan long advance... that means stocking up on the supply chain with everything from the case, display, components, etc. More difficult would be to get assembly plants to ramp up to double the capacity.

However, the business risks at this stage are too hi for the company to risk a huge build up in inventory... unless they are willing to sign up China Mobile, China Unicom, China Telecom in a big way. I would say that China Mobile would be a challenge with their TD-SCDMA network.

I don't know... the analyst wasn't specific -- so, likely, he is talking about all iPhones: 3GS, 4 and 4S.

According to AT&T, 3GS sales (free) are doing quite well -- I assume that some foreign carriers may also continue to carry the 3GS (free).

Then, there are multiple cell radio models of the iP4 at $99.

For the first time, Apple has 3 different iPhones available concurrently.

Then, the December quarter has an extra week this year -- 13 instead of 12.

Apple guidance for the quarter was unusually high, $37 Billion -- which makes me think they have negotiated some large sales of iPhones and iPads to enterprise ala Lowes'.

Then there's KDDI Japan and China???

The hard-to-get components of the 4S (A5, Retina Display) are already in steady production... so manufacturing yields are predictable and production should be [relatively] easy to ramp up.

And, I suspect that iP4 and 4S assembly lines are mostly interchangeable.

Apple could be quite agile and change production, quickly, based on anticipated demand.

I believe the 42.5 million iPhones number is doable -- if the demand is there!
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post #25 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwmac View Post

I am one of those sales, I just hope Apple doesn't take get the wrong message from those high numbers and think we are all happy with the smallish display. I really wanted at least a 4" display and 4.3" would be even better.

Personally I'm happy with the screen size. My preference would be for the rest of the phone to be reduced in size to fit underneath the display.
post #26 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

I don't know... the analyst wasn't specific -- so, likely, he is talking about all iPhones: 3GS, 4 and 4S.

According to AT&T, 3GS sales (free) are doing quite well -- I assume that some foreign carriers may also continue to carry the 3GS (free).

Then, there are multiple cell radio models of the iP4 at $99.

For the first time, Apple has 3 different iPhones available concurrently.

Then, the December quarter has an extra week this year -- 13 instead of 12.

Apple guidance for the quarter was unusually high, $37 Billion -- which makes me think they have negotiated some large sales of iPhones and iPads to enterprise ala Lowes'.

Then there's KDDI Japan and China???

The hard-to-get components of the 4S (A5, Retina Display) are already in steady production... so manufacturing yields are predictable and production should be [relatively] easy to ramp up.

And, I suspect that iP4 and 4S assembly lines are mostly interchangeable.

Apple could be quite agile and change production, quickly, based on anticipated demand.

I believe the 42.5 million iPhones number is doable -- if the demand is there!

The fact is that Apple's record is about 20 M. Selling more than twice the previous record? Not likely.

More importantly is the general principles involved. Some analyst pulls a number of of his nether regions and that becomes the target Apple must hit. No matter how absurd the target, if Apple fails to hit it, they get clobbered after the next earnings statement.

Look at the last quarter and read the Fortune article. For the past two years, Apple has beaten their guidance by 12-18% in every quarter but one. In the latest quarter, they beat their guidance by a number within the same range. But because the analysts dreamed up ridiculous numbers, Apple got clobbered. How many articles have you seen that say "Apple missed earnings targets"?

What people should do is completely ignore analysts who just throw out figures like that. Unless they are able to provide significant evidence to back up their claim, it should simply be ignored. Now, if the analyst has a history of consistently being correct in their predictions, then their predictions should be considered. But what happens is that the same idiot analysts get away with publishing absurd figures year after year after year - and no one ever holds their feet to the fire over it.

Just ignore analysts.
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post #27 of 33
These analysts just guess/tells things to drive up/down the shares.

I have read 100 articles how Apple missed expectations last quarters.
Apples profit went up 54% and it was a miss!

The analysts put up goals that are impossible to reach. If its not the iPhone, its the iPad. This is why Apple stock always rise before the Q results and falls after. It have happen almost every quarter last 5 years.

Outside US: How is the iPhone buzz there?
Here in Sweden preorders started without fanfare. Each other iPhone, it have been impossible to preorder since so many have hit the website at the same time. This time, no problem. Just like nobody care. I ordered 3 without problem.

Siri works good in English. Barely in French and Germany. Apple sell their phones to 67 other countries before the years end.

The largest smartphone vendor Samsung sells 20 million phones. They have many different models.
Now Apple suddenly is going in just 3 month double the record in selling smartphones?
I hope that happens, but I fear that to many have started to use Android.

Android is now like Windows. Good enough for many.
If you don't use an Apple product, you have no idea what you are missing.

Fundamentally Apple is undervalued. Nokia had a smaller loss then expected and their shares went up 10%. Apple make 60 times more money then Nokia, but is only valued about 14 nokias.

Yearly PE 12
With 81 billion cash PE 8

The tech average is 19. Somehow Apple is valued 50% less then the average company. The crazy IT bubble is here again. Wall Street thinks its good that Amazon sells Fire tablets at a loss. This was exactly the same thinking in early 2000. You can loose money for market share. Amazon PE 100. Valued almost 10 times higher then Apple. Wall Street really believe that Amazon will grow 10 times faster then Apple.
sick people. no wonder people occupy wall street.
post #28 of 33
I could see this happening...with them on more carriers + 3 price models + more and more people buying smartphones I could see Apple gaining significant marketshare all while all OEMs make a profit.

The future.
post #29 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by shompa View Post

I hope that happens, but I fear that to many have started to use Android.

Why would that bother you?

Quote:
Android is now like Windows. Good enough for many.
If you don't use an Apple product, you have no idea what you are missing.

I use Apple products and I don't like how they work...many people I know are like me.

And I'm sure there are more out there.

Apple is good for a lot of people but not good for everyone.

I am beginning to warm up to OSX though...especially with what I see in the future of OSX vs the future of Windows...
post #30 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by AbsoluteDesignz View Post

I could see this happening...with them on more carriers + 3 price models + more and more people buying smartphones I could see Apple gaining significant marketshare all while all OEMs make a profit.

The future.

I believe Apple barely bested Samsung as the largest smartphone vendor by units with a year old iPhone, but Samsung took the lead with 5 and 9 quarter old iPhones, all the while Samsung releasing new devices. Pushing to 42 million units could give Apple twice the smartphone unit sales as its closest competitor. Imagine what that could mean for increased profits in the handset market. Of course, the detractors will never compare HW, but instead OSes saying it's about the playform whilst oddly excluding all the other places iOS is installed, or even comparing all smartphone OS numbers to iPhone sales.
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post #31 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I believe Apple barely bested Samsung as the largest smartphone vendor by units with a year old iPhone, but Samsung took the lead with 5 and 9 quarter old iPhones, all the while Samsung releasing new devices. Pushing to 42 million units could give Apple twice the smartphone unit sales as its closest competitor. Imagine what that could mean for increased profits in the handset market. Of course, the detractors will never compare HW, but instead OSes saying it's about the playform whilst oddly excluding all the other places iOS is installed, or even comparing all smartphone OS numbers to iPhone sales.

I honestly don't care how much Apple, Google, HTC, Samsung, Zeta, Beta, Alpha, Tom, Dick, Harry, Suzie, Sally, Mary, Caesar, Isabella, Anastasija, etc make in profits...I just want my phones to work as I like them.

The reason it's only fair to compare OSes and not phone per phone is because if you want an iOS experience, you have to pick Apple...period...one of 3 models. If you want an Android experience, you have all these OEMs competing with each other. No single Android OEM will ever beat Apple on the hardware side. But as far as marketshare goes (which I also don't really care about as long as my platform is relevant enough to be supported by a good number of devs) Android is currently ahead of iOS...in smartphones...and smartphones only...

Tablets iOS clearly and rightfully wins, PMPs is iOS's game as well.

but I don't really care.



I just noticed your location...from the Ender's Game series I presume? If so welcome to my awesome list.
post #32 of 33
The 40M is possible. Here is why. Apple coming into this quarter sold 20.34 million, and 18.65 million iPhones previously. This is sequential growth of 9% and assuming the same growth into 1Q, absent the 4S rumours the sequential increases would have been:

2) 18.65
3) 20.34
4) 22.18

Red color is what would have been, the numbers are APple quarters. We got 17M. Thats a 5M drop from what would have been expected on a fairly conservative 9% increase.

Sequential increases from the 4Q to the holiday 1Q have been as high as 50% ( like last year). This year I will assume it would have been 30%. Pushing that onto the last quarters assumed level, absent the rumours we get:

1) 28.84 units


Thats what would have happened had the 4 continued on it's roll, and the 4S not been introduced. Note: Its a mistake to assume that sequential growth from Q4 to Q1 would be 30% on the actual 17m. The natural increase of 30% is on the 22M which would have happened. The missing 5M gets bought now, so the new total for the 4Q is


1) 33.84 units


There is a certain amount of double accounting here, as some people may have upgraded anyway but I choose a low 30% increase from q4 to q1.

But thats not all, as demand isn't just the 5M missing from the last quarter but all the increases in demand because of the 4S, the reduction in prices the 3GS and the 4.

So, yeah, it can make 40M, supply willing.
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post #33 of 33
See below:

Quote:
Originally Posted by atsysusa View Post

Exactly. This is why I stopped buying other companies' stock in 1980. I only invest in my own ventures.

Wall Street is populated by B-School Grads who never spent a day in their lives working in a real factory or in a company that produces anything other than reports. Why would you expect them to know anything about manufacturing??

QED
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