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Europe implodes in 3, 2, 1...

post #1 of 16
Thread Starter 
The Guardian commentary (as per iPad Newstand edition) asserts that the "Greek bailout" is actually a bailout of US (Google "Bank of America is now insolvent") and European banks, not of Greece.

So the Greek referendum is coming up soon, I wonder if secession is the only sensible option... Sigh, just when the "markets" told us everything was sweet since the 50% haircut of "Greek (ie. US and European) debt".

Weigh in here, pundits.

Will Greece secede? Will there be financial apocalypse?

Or... will we just give "Greece", US and European banks all more debt, loans, currency, whatever?
post #2 of 16
I think Greece will default and wont get a loan for years. The best and brightest will flee the country. The lenders will survive. To paraphrase a US senator "Get the hell out of that country!"
post #3 of 16
This is making Europe closer. New laws will mean Brussels plays a bigger role. Whatever happens with Greece is uncertain, but it'll have no real effect other than to bring about a USE quicker.
We are nurturing a nightmare that will haunt our children, and kill theirs.
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We are nurturing a nightmare that will haunt our children, and kill theirs.
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post #4 of 16
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hands Sandon View Post

This is making Europe closer. New laws will mean Brussels plays a bigger role. Whatever happens with Greece is uncertain, but it'll have no real effect other than to bring about a USE quicker.

I'm not too sure at this stage. Greece's leader backed down from the referendum (bashed in the head by G20) but in a few hours there will be a confidence vote of the Greek government. If Papa~ doesn't win the confidence vote there'll be more uncertainty on whether whoever takes over will take the bailout package thingy.
post #5 of 16
Thread Starter 
From a random commenter on a random website:

"The Greek ruling classes paid Goldman Sachs huge amounts of money to cook their books in order to gain entry to the Euro - why? They obviously weren't thinking about the best interests of those they had been elected to represent, so in whose favour was this criminal act and why are none of them, or the Goldman Sachs executives involved, in fucking jail? If i fiddle my tax returns for a few grand they will bang me up for 5 - 7 years, these bastards have ruined the livelihoods and futures of over ten million human beings and not a single fucking one is facing criminal charges?????????

This could happen to any of us, anywhere in Europe - these are the continents darkest hours since 1939, believe you me."
post #6 of 16
Thread Starter 
Another great comment...

"Financiers and stock markets deliberately defraud European Banks of trillions

Do our leaders shut them down and take them to court and jail them? No

Do our leaders carry out fraud investigations ? No

Moody's admitted to the American government last August they deliberately defrauded European banks. America said they could not prosecute because it was outwith their jurisdiction.

Did Cameron sue Moody's ? No
Did Merkel sue Moodys ? No
Did Sarkozy sue Moodys ? No

Why not - Moody's have admitted fraud

Why are they not taking them to court - and opening up the can of worms that was deliberate fraud against European banks and European pension funds?

The G20 are going to agree to transfer trillions of pounds more banking debt to us

This is not my debt I pay tax for services not to service banks

Cameron has already borrowed over £26 billion - just to cover Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Italy and Spain's banking debt -

Remember Britian has to give 4.5% of the IMF Budget

So this G20 meeting means Cameron is going to transfer even more banking debt on to us..

Just hear the figure and remember Cameron is going to borrow even more billions to give to the IMF ! (NOT FOR BRITIAIN)

This is not our debt - he has no right to borrow billions that we must pay -

G20 - HOW TO TRANSFER OTHER COUNTRIES BANKING DEBT TO BRITISH TAXPAYERS BY MAKING IT BRITISH TAXPAYER BORROWINGS

THIS IS NOT OUR DEBT - TIME TO STRIKE - worth losing a few thousand rather than allowing Cameron to transfer other countries debt to not only you but your children and your grandchildren

THE IMF WANTS YOU TO PAY FOR BANKING DEBT CAUSED BY FRAUD"
post #7 of 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

The Guardian commentary (as per iPad Newstand edition) asserts that the "Greek bailout" is actually a bailout of US (Google "Bank of America is now insolvent") and European banks, not of Greece.

The reason that is commentary is because when you bail out the debtor to the lienholders, some people are under the delusion that the lienholder is the irresponsible party.
Quote:
So the Greek referendum is coming up soon, I wonder if secession is the only sensible option... Sigh, just when the "markets" told us everything was sweet since the 50% haircut of "Greek (ie. US and European) debt".

Weigh in here, pundits.

Will Greece secede? Will there be financial apocalypse?

Or... will we just give "Greece", US and European banks all more debt, loans, currency, whatever?

Any Western style government using the social welfare model will be following the same path. The question is of when, not if.

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #8 of 16
Thread Starter 
One of the reasons they are so rich is that rather than paying millions in tax to the Greek state, as they rightfully should, many of these residents are living entirely tax-free.

Along street after street of opulent mansions and villas, surrounded by high walls and with their own pools, most of the millionaires living here are, officially, virtually paupers.

How so? Simple: they are allowed to state their own earnings for tax purposes, figures which are rarely challenged. And rich Greeks take full advantage.

Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/ar...#ixzz1cjxVeTFD
post #9 of 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by trumptman View Post

The reason that is commentary is because when you bail out the debtor to the lienholders, some people are under the delusion that the lienholder is the irresponsible party.


Any Western style government using the social welfare model will be following the same path. The question is of when, not if.

Please expain what you mean here in more detail, because otherwise it comes across as pure horseshit.
We are nurturing a nightmare that will haunt our children, and kill theirs.
Reply
We are nurturing a nightmare that will haunt our children, and kill theirs.
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post #10 of 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

From a random commenter on a random website:

"The Greek ruling classes paid Goldman Sachs huge amounts of money to cook their books in order to gain entry to the Euro - why? They obviously weren't thinking about the best interests of those they had been elected to represent, so in whose favour was this criminal act and why are none of them, or the Goldman Sachs executives involved, in fucking jail? If i fiddle my tax returns for a few grand they will bang me up for 5 - 7 years, these bastards have ruined the livelihoods and futures of over ten million human beings and not a single fucking one is facing criminal charges?????????

This could happen to any of us, anywhere in Europe - these are the continents darkest hours since 1939, believe you me."


Yep, GS should stand for Greek Shit. But this isn't Shit, it's standard practice, and before you can say sovereignty, the USA will be as tied to Germany, France and the Uk financially as say, Belgium.

What's really, really happening here is the US is joining the EU.
We are nurturing a nightmare that will haunt our children, and kill theirs.
Reply
We are nurturing a nightmare that will haunt our children, and kill theirs.
Reply
post #11 of 16
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by trumptman View Post

Any Western style government using the social welfare model will be following the same path. The question is of when, not if.

This isn't social welfare, it's pure stupidity not auditing personal income tax.

Social welfare would mean having a safety net for the poor, not letting the rich do whatever the fuck they wanted like in Greece.

The Greek income tax situation is either highly conservative in the sense of little to no government regulation, or, on the other side of the coin, it could be considered anarchistic.

A social agreement from the people with a social-oriented government would generally mean that everyone pays their share and pulls their weight, unless for whatever reasonable reasons they are not able to, like physical or mental illness.

The Greek income tax situation is ridiculous. Even if you had a flat tax, say, 10%, regardless of income, Greeks declaring €10,000 a year when they make €500,000 a year means they're stealing €49,000 from their own country each year. If just 1,000 people out of a country of many, many millions do that, that's a loss of revenue of €49,000,000 each year.
post #12 of 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

This isn't social welfare, it's pure stupidity not auditing personal income tax.

Who is it that chooses not to audit the personal income tax? It is the government tax collectors who are easily bribed. Why are they easily bribed? Obviously there isn't much of a chance they will get caught accepting those bribes. Why would the people as a whole cheat in paying their taxes? (of course the rich can cheat more when they are taxed more, you can't cheat on a tax you don't pay) It is because they don't feel their government legitimate and it doesn't provide a common service, but rather a corrupt and systemic form of cronyism.

Quote:
Social welfare would mean having a safety net for the poor, not letting the rich do whatever the fuck they wanted like in Greece.

There certainly is a safety net in Greece. The safety net simply serves uneven interests. California is shaping up much the same way. Prison guards are retiring at 50. Soon they will be asking new teachers to accept a second tier retirement that will having them retiring at 69 or so because the state is too broke, but at the same time they can afford to offer in state tuition and full financial aid for illegal immigrants.

The safety net serves whoever they need to buy votes from in the next election. It reflects corruption and serves it.
Quote:
The Greek income tax situation is either highly conservative in the sense of little to no government regulation, or, on the other side of the coin, it could be considered anarchistic.

The Greek income tax situation is profoundly liberal and profoundly progressive. The problem is that it is creating a shadow economy. Shadow economies have little incentive when rules are uniform, free of loopholes and the cost is reasonable. The reason a shadow economy springs up is because the gains are so great when avoiding the government. If lying gets you 30-40% more money, then there is a strong incentive to lie.

Quote:
A social agreement from the people with a social-oriented government would generally mean that everyone pays their share and pulls their weight, unless for whatever reasonable reasons they are not able to, like physical or mental illness.

The flip side is that everyone gets the benefit. When the benefits are used instead to pay off cronies, and buy votes, then people don't want to join the social compact because they don't get a return from it.

Quote:
The Greek income tax situation is ridiculous. Even if you had a flat tax, say, 10%, regardless of income, Greeks declaring €10,000 a year when they make €500,000 a year means they're stealing €49,000 from their own country each year. If just 1,000 people out of a country of many, many millions do that, that's a loss of revenue of €49,000,000 each year.

Again, the rate isn't 10% though. It is around 40%. So it becomes €200,000. The government official comes with his form and declares he will require you to declare €200,000 but if you give him €5,000, he will let you write down whatever you want. You go down to the office to file the forms to start a new microbrew business. The paperwork sits there for three months. Later a government official hints it might move if you were to give him €5,000.

When people and entire industries find is easier and cheaper to desperately avoid the government, the problem isn't the business or the people. It is the corrupt and terrible government.

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #13 of 16
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by trumptman View Post

The reason that is commentary is because when you bail out the debtor to the lienholders, some people are under the delusion that the lienholder is the irresponsible party.

I came back to read this again. Lending is a mutual agreement.

That means, the lender is as responsible for defaults as the debtor.

Yes, you can say the debtor is an idiot when they fail to meet their obligations. But the basis of financial transactions is that there is always risk. You lend money to a business, it may go well, or they could go bankrupt. Clearly in some cases it's because the debtors are irresponsible idiots with the money. But in some cases, the business may fail for all kinds of legitimate and unforseen reasons.

But this does not negate the onus of responsible lending by the lender, ie. banks.

Just as with sub-prime, US, British and European banks that continued lending to Greece well past the point of any sensible risk management have also caused this problem. Banks became greedy chasing interest from loans and interest from loans to pay the interest.

If I lend my car to my drunkard friend, most people would say I have only myself to blame when he crashes my car.

I'm not saying the Greek government is not messed up, but the banks are also to blame.

This is why in a normal economy within a country there are bankruptcy procedures. This is so that whatever can be recovered from a bankrupt entity is recovered and the creditors then simply, get on to other things. This is the promise of capitalism... You take managed risks, and when things don't work out, they don't. You move on, so that ideas that fail, fail efficiently and ideas that work aren't hampered too much by past failure. In fact, this is IMO how the US became a remarkable nation. Through great ideas that worked, but also by easily dealing with ideas that didn't.

When one bails out Greece, one is not bailing out just the Greeks but the banks that have all the bad debts. In other words, one is distorting the loss that the bank is supposed to experience.

The distortion in perception that is happening, but for not too much longer I think, is that banks should be protected from losses. This does not make sense, because that is their business. They are supposed to manage things so that their profits outweigh the losses. That's why there's collateral and guarantors and all these things that are supposed to allow sensible risk management of loans and deposits. Some of our most brilliant graduates continually go into the banking sector, not science, teaching or art. Not that this is wrong, I'm just saying, the banks know what they are doing, they're not dumb.

Let's think a little different... Or normal, as you can see.

Consider the converse situation, where, we as depositors when putting money in a bank's mutual fund, are lending our money to the bank. If our investment fails due to stock prices, calamities or fund manager stupidity, is anyone going to run to our rescue and say, hey, no worries, I'll bail you out, old chap? This seems preposterous. But when it's the banks, it's all OMFG WE NEED TO GIVE YOU TONS OF MONEYZ OTHERWISE THE WHOLE SYSTEM WILL COLLAPSE.

Clearly something is wrong with this picture. The biggest scam post WW2 is that the banks have figured out how almost never to have to take losses... They have continued to create all kinds of derivatives and instruments that ensnare all of us in a complex web that almost the whole world now is hopelessly dependent on. They now sit by the side and laugh as politicians of the left and right put on a charade of fixing the problem.
post #14 of 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

I came back to read this again. Lending is a mutual agreement.

That means, the lender is as responsible for defaults as the debtor.

This would be true if not for the government using GSE's and also regulation to alter the relationship. So in an ideal world I would totally be in agreement with you. However in the world where the government creates an instrument claiming to remove risk and then "compels" you under threat of litigation to lend in the manner they dictate, that isn't quite true.

Quote:
Yes, you can say the debtor is an idiot when they fail to meet their obligations. But the basis of financial transactions is that there is always risk. You lend money to a business, it may go well, or they could go bankrupt. Clearly in some cases it's because the debtors are irresponsible idiots with the money. But in some cases, the business may fail for all kinds of legitimate and unforseen reasons.

Most businesses yes. Since we have a Federal Reserve that while claiming to be independent, clearly is not and since they have been manipulating interest rates, reserve requirements, and the Congressional arms has been declaring lending requirements are racially motivated, etc. it isn't quite that simple.

I'm not even saying it is only one party. I made up this mental shorthand to sort of explain it to others. Republicans said business could speculate with free government money in exchange for Democrats declaring they better lend to people who have no business being lent to at all.

Quote:
But this does not negate the onus of responsible lending by the lender, ie. banks.

Actually in my mind it does. You look at any industry where the government has declared no one can judge, the result must still be achieved and private industry can handle the world while government handles dictating all the rules and you see the same exact results. It isn't just banking. It is higher education, health care, real estate, energy, etc.

Quote:
Just as with sub-prime, US, British and European banks that continued lending to Greece well past the point of any sensible risk management have also caused this problem. Banks became greedy chasing interest from loans and interest from loans to pay the interest.

What interest? Not be a complete ass but have you seen the interest rates on government bonds? They are about the worst investment possible. Governments know it so again, they manipulate the system. They've been printing money and buying their own bonds and also exchanging the bonds for the toxic assets the banks were holding that the banks had from lending to people under government compulsion. Also the money printing generates inflation which makes other investments, specifically stocks, more risky so the banks start looking to the government for a safe haven from government action.

It becomes one form of coercion traded for another type of coercion.

Quote:
If I lend my car to my drunkard friend, most people would say I have only myself to blame when he crashes my car.

This would be absolutely true in almost all cases. However here is what the scenario will look like under the government.

Drunk friend: Dude can I borrow your car?

You: Ummm.... no, you're drunk.

Government: That's a judgement and you make it because you are racist, sexist, and insensitive.

You: You're wrong. He's drunk.

Government: Well you can prove we are wrong while we go through this multiple year review and background check on your actions and btw you get to hire someone to fetch, organize and give us everything we demand or you can sign this consent degree to lend cars the way we want and actually survive.

You: Fine I'll lend it an pray he doesn't destroy it.

Time passes...

You: Government, I've got a problem. While my drunk friend hasn't managed to destroy the car yet, there are increased costs with him borrowing it. He's very hard on the brakes due to his terrible reaction times. He peels out all the time while being a drunk ass. The tranny is starting to make ominous noises as well. I can't absorb the cost of this asshole much longer.

Government: Well don't worry, you can't use that car much longer any way.

You: WTF?!?!

Government: We've decided it is too inefficient, not safe enough in a crash, and it wasn't made by union personnel.

You: It's a perfectly decent car when not being driven by a drunk asshole.

Government: Well don't sweat it. We've got just the car for you that meets those requirements. We are also going to give a tax credit for your old car, and an interest free loan for the car.

You: Well I guess that can make up for the damage from the drunk friend. I'll be able to start to get back on my feet and move forward if you do that considering you made me loan it to the drunk friend.

Government: Oh well we are doing this but you'll have to continue to lend it to your drunk friend. You'll also have to loan it to his drunk friend as well.

You: This is ridiculous. Why don't you just get a car for these guys?!?

Government: Well we can't do that. They're totally irresponsible. They're a bunch of drunks for goodness sakes. They forget to add oil, fill gas and would destroy it. While they'll do those things in smaller degrees, they seem to straighten up a bit when it is someone else's possession that they know they have to give back rather than their own stuff which they destroy. Plus the public would object to us buying cars for drunks.

You: This is crazy I don't want to give my car to drunk all the times. They'll destroy it and I'll be saddled with all the loans and costs.

Government: Well we can also create a government sponsored car ownership enterprise. You can sell a half interest ownership in the car to them, that way you are only on the hook for half the costs and you still to enjoy the car most of the time.

You: This can't be cheaper than just buying a car for the drunks at this stage.

Government: Well you're right but you need a car so you'll vote for us. They need a car to borrow so they'll vote for us. The people working for our GSE need a job so they'll vote for us. The people designing the car to our specifications will vote for us. Etc...

Do you see where this is going?

Quote:
I'm not saying the Greek government is not messed up, but the banks are also to blame.

The banks are along for the ride. I'm not saying they are perfect. I'm saying they are no different than any other entity that has to serve at the whims of the government.

Quote:
This is why in a normal economy within a country there are bankruptcy procedures. This is so that whatever can be recovered from a bankrupt entity is recovered and the creditors then simply, get on to other things. This is the promise of capitalism... You take managed risks, and when things don't work out, they don't. You move on, so that ideas that fail, fail efficiently and ideas that work aren't hampered too much by past failure. In fact, this is IMO how the US became a remarkable nation. Through great ideas that worked, but also by easily dealing with ideas that didn't.

The difference here is the government exempts themselves from their own rules and alters the rules for their cronies. A couple recent examples are guaranteed student loans. They are from the government and cannot be discharged in a bankruptcy. When GM and Chrysler went bankrupt the government came in and altered the order of creditors to be paid off. This amounts to altering the risk and contract terms AFTER THE FACT.

The government is like the mafia. They keep making you offers you can't refuse.

Quote:
When one bails out Greece, one is not bailing out just the Greeks but the banks that have all the bad debts. In other words, one is distorting the loss that the bank is supposed to experience. The distortion in perception that is happening, but for not too much longer I think, is that banks should be protected from losses. This does not make sense, because that is their business. They are supposed to manage things so that their profits outweigh the losses. That's why there's collateral and guarantors and all these things that are supposed to allow sensible risk management of loans and deposits. Some of our most brilliant graduates continually go into the banking sector, not science, teaching or art. Not that this is wrong, I'm just saying, the banks know what they are doing, they're not dumb.

It would make sense if dealing with people instead of the government. The government controls all the strings though. If you go to the bank and want a loan after defaulting, the bank will charge you a much higher rate for that risk. This isn't true with the government. The government can depreciate the banks assets via inflation, alter what they can lend via reserve requirements, regulate what programs they can offer and what rates they can charge, etc.

Quote:
Let's think a little different... Or normal, as you can see.

I think I've shown some very different thinking and I hope you'll open your mind to it.
Quote:
Consider the converse situation, where, we as depositors when putting money in a bank's mutual fund, are lending our money to the bank. If our investment fails due to stock prices, calamities or fund manager stupidity, is anyone going to run to our rescue and say, hey, no worries, I'll bail you out, old chap? This seems preposterous. But when it's the banks, it's all OMFG WE NEED TO GIVE YOU TONS OF MONEYZ OTHERWISE THE WHOLE SYSTEM WILL COLLAPSE.

Clearly something is wrong with this picture. The biggest scam post WW2 is that the banks have figured out how almost never to have to take losses... They have continued to create all kinds of derivatives and instruments that ensnare all of us in a complex web that almost the whole world now is hopelessly dependent on. They now sit by the side and laugh as politicians of the left and right put on a charade of fixing the problem.

I don't want to repeat myself. I'll simply say track the size of government along the same period of time and the answer is pretty clear. Track the percentage of GDP controlled and spent by government. The clearest example of this right now (in my opinion) is green energy. Look at it to see all the cronyism, loans, etc that are the modus operandi of government action.

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #15 of 16

Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

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Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

Reply
post #16 of 16
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzguru View Post


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