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OS X Lion growth stagnates at 16% Mac market share

post #1 of 162
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The adoption rate of Mac OS X 10.7 Lion has seen a drastic slowdown after enjoying strong initial sales and is only running on 16% of Macs, giving it the third largest install base behind Snow Leopard and Leopard.

Mac OS X 10.7 Lion is being run on 16% of all Macs after seeing a highly successful launch, but sales have slowed to a crawl, barely outpacing adoption of Apple's previous version Mac OS X 10.6 Snow Leopard which is installed on 56% of Macs, according to a study by analytics firm Chitika.

When Apple's newest Mac OS X launched in July, it saw booming sales topping one million downloads on launch day, with Apple calling it the company's fastest-selling OS ever.

The new study shows that, until September, Lion sales were consistent, seeing a 4.05% monthly growth rate, though that has slowed to an average rate of 0.98% over the past two months.



In early October, Apple CEO Tim Cook announced during his company's iPhone keynote that Lion was its best-selling OS to date, with an adoption rate surpassing its predecessor Snow Leopard by 80%, netting over six million downloads. Cook went on to compare the launch of Lion with Microsoft's Windows 7, which he said took 20 weeks to reach 10 percent of the PC install base, a feat Lion accomplished in just two weeks.

"The once hyped OS X Lion is now in a state of arrested development; theyre growing, but not nearly at the rate newly released operating systems have grown in the past," writes Chitika's Ryan Cavanagh in the company's blog. "Historically Mac users are quick to adopt the latest Apple software, as in the case with our iOS5 report, leading us to believe there are some real issues preventing users from making the $29.99 upgrade."

Cavanagh goes on to say that Lion's downtick in sales may be attributed to stability issues with the OS, and cites user complaints over iOS-like features that give would-be adopters pause when deciding to upgrade.



Lion is slowly gaining ground on Mac OS X Leopard, which holds a 22% share of the market, though it seems unlikely that it will overtake leader 10.6 Snow Leopard any time soon as the older OS also continues to increase its 56% share.
post #2 of 162
First the iPhone, now Lion. Apple must be doomed.

Originally posted by Marvin

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post #3 of 162
The decision to sell a copy with install media only at much higher price probably have something to do with it.
post #4 of 162
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post #5 of 162
Quote:
Originally Posted by xsu View Post

The decision to sell a copy with install media only at much higher price probably have something to do with it.

Yeah, Lion sure is expensive.

$29.

Yikes.
post #6 of 162
I suspect as the article says it's partly the iOS feature-creep that some don't like, along with removal of Rosetta, and perhaps even the lack of Java (although it's auto-installed when needed). Also, I bet quite a high proportion of people are refraining because they don't have access to a high speed connection to download, or simply prefer to have a physical copy of the OS. Paying much more for a USB version isn't going to help matters.

Apple's always pushing technology forward, but perhaps a choice for Lion's install media would have been more appropriate. They could have tested the water with Lion, giving people a choice of DVD or App Store. 10.8 could then have been the time to let go of the old physical media installs.
post #7 of 162
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pendergast View Post

Yeah, Lion sure is expensive.

$29.

Yikes.

You'll find it's $69 for the USB drive.
post #8 of 162
I'm not surprised that the interest has dropped significantly, but I am surprised it's only 16%. That being said, I do know of many users still on Lion or not updated to the latest version of SL where the Mac App Store existed, so perhaps that is holding off the decision. It also might be from people not being able to give DVDs to friends and family to use to install Lion. Sure, you can always sign in to Mac App Store and re-download it or burn a bootable disc with Disk Utility, but that's a little more effort than just hanging someone a jewel case.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Pendergast View Post

Yeah, Lion sure is expensive.

$29.

Yikes.

He'll come back with a comment about how Lion sold on a USB drive is more expensive. At which point I'll counter with: If there is no way to install the media then why would people buy Lion from the Mac App Store.

The Mac App Store is quite nice for this because you can never lose the software, if you have to re-download you get the latest version without having to reinstall all the updates afterwards, and you still get the ability to burn to disc if you so desire.
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post #9 of 162
It doesn't support Rosetta applications.

So, I run Lion in a virtual Machine - Parallels for now.
post #10 of 162
Am I alone in thinking that this also has a lot to do with the fact that Lion requires a Core 2. All of my Apple computers in the house are running Core Duos. I have no need to buy new Macs right now because I don't require powerhouses for what I use them for. That said, I have bought all the latest operating systems from Tiger through Snow Leopard and would gladly update if I was physically able to.

Just my two cents.
post #11 of 162
I upgraded three macs to Lion and trying to figure out the best method to upgrade a 4th one. I need to run Snow Leopard for some old programs. Lion is a great OS. I am looking for a multiple disk enclosure that is bootable that can boot Snow Leopard with backup and back up Lion. I want to reduce the cable clutter behind this iMac.
post #12 of 162
This report is kind of silly. Mac users get OS upgrades in two ways: they buy the disk (or obtain it somehow) or buy a new Mac. Mac users tend to purposely upgrade their OS at a faster clip than PC users, who tend to stay on the version of Windows their PC shipped with.

So after this company's data suggests retail sales have leveled off (as they always have; Apple has reported Mac OS X sales are mostly sold in the first quarter or two), that Lion is now a failure.

It then jumps to the absurd conclusion that the "downtick in sales may be attributed to stability issues with the OS," as if people are deciding not to upgrade. Lion is not less stable than Snow Leopard.

There's also way more Macs shipping with Lion (that can't downgrade) than ever shipped with any other OS. Another 4.9 million this last quarter. The installed base of Macs is not that large--around 30-40 million. That means new Lion Macs are destined to rapidly displace old versions of the Mac OS, an hesitancy to upgrade is meaningless because new purchases are such a big percentage of the installed base. Compare new PCs sold quarterly to the 1 billion installed base - its not nearly as large.

NetMarketshare shows that Lion has already well outpaced Leopard+Tiger, and is at 1.89% compared to Snow Leopard's 3.62% today. In other words, Lion is already #2 and more than half as big as the installed base of Snow Leopard machines.
post #13 of 162
Mid 2011 MBP running snow leopard and it's just fine.. no real desire to upgrade.
post #14 of 162
I have lion on one of my MacBooks, and there are some really brain dead decisions in this OS that hold me back upgrading the rest of my machines... Firstly I like the "natural scrolling", took a while to get used to it but I'm happy with it... But the lack of scroll bars by default is weird, the gestures are so vague I'm never quite sure what is going to happen when I make one on the trackpad... And finally the lockout from the boot disk makes life painful for the advanced user... Also I like a save option in my apps...

Yeah lion is somewhat half baked, lots of good stuff with far too much bad :-/

-edit- oh and why does Logic 8 not work from the desktop... Totally brain dead
post #15 of 162
I'm also surprised that it is only 16%. However, I happen to be a bleeding edge kind of guy. But, I do know at least one friend who couldn't move to Lion because of one app that requires Rosetta. I imagine that it is a combination of that and not meeting minimal requirements that is holding many people back.
post #16 of 162
I'm not surprised at the low adoption rates.

I'm sure the original 'download only' policy didn't help, following it with a more than 200% price increase for the USB stick wasn't much better either.

Besides, outside of the Mac faithful, the reviews have been less than favorable. Even Macworld has spent considerable time talking/writing about stuff that Snow Leopard used to do well that is broken on Lion. They've done at least three podcasts on that topic alone! One of them was mostly dedicated to terminal hacks to restore features from Snow Leopard. I don't recall that happening (at least not to that degree) with any other Mac OS release.
post #17 of 162
One word Adobe!

I think I speak for most designers and developers that issues with Adobe after upgrading to lion. It may sound trivial but after reading the bug issues that adobe reports on its website of "known issues" is enough to keep me from upgrading.

I have things to do that's why I bought a Mac. If I wanted to "trick" the operating system to do what I want it to, I would have bought a PC. I don't have time nor the patients to beta test an operating system that is available for retail.

Nothig personal apple I love yah :-) but I'm sure that others in the design world feel the same way I do. If I'm not mistaken the design market is a fairly large percentage...

http://www.obxwebdesigner.com
post #18 of 162
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pendergast View Post

Yeah, Lion sure is expensive.
$29.
Yikes.

Yea, plus $900 for me to upgrade my old PPC software. Worth it in the end, but Lion plus iCloud vs MobileMe is a lot all at once...
post #19 of 162
So Apple went download-only, a HUGE shift, and yet Lion's adoption curve is still exceeding that of its highly successful predecessor? "barely outpacing” is still outpacing! Not bad.

(Granted, for $69 you can have it on a thumbdrive, still WAY cheaper than Windows. So not quite “download only.”)


Quote:
Originally Posted by obxwebdesigner View Post

One word Adobe!

I think I speak for most designers and developers that issues with Adobe after upgrading to lion. It may sound trivial but after reading the bug issues that adobe reports on its website of "known issues" is enough to keep me from upgrading.

If you’re suggesting that Adobe had PLENTY of time to find and fix criticial issues before Lion came out, via the same developer program everyone else uses, then you’re right. Sometimes I don’t know what’s wrong with Adobe. (I’m still on CS3... most of which runs fine in Lion. Not all. But thankfully, I’m fully operational without the missing pieces. Photoshop and Flash CS3 have been fine. I await CS6!)

If you’re suggesting that when Adobe drags their feet, Apple should hold back releasing their OS until Adobe fixes everying... well, that way lies doom. Not practical, even if Adobe ever DID fix the bugs you care about, which may or may not ever happen (look how bad Flash remains year after year). Not only would Apple lose tons of money and set their own innovation back for Adobe’s sake, but non-Adobe users would suffer the same delay as Adobe users! Better to release Lion to the world when it’s ready, let non-Adobe users have it as soon as they want, and pros can check with the vendors of their key apps before updating to new machines or new OS versions (as is standard business practice).
post #20 of 162
Apple used to charge $129 for a major update. That included a box disk. It provided a single user a license. For a family license, Apple charged $199. Now you get the same caliber of update for $29. If you really need a hard copy, you can get that for $69. This license allows you install the OS on any computer using the same Apple ID. I'd say Apple is being more the generous. For proof, go compare Apple's options to the options Microsoft gives. Apple rocks.

Apple is giving people the price break because it doesn't want to ship physical media. With physical media, Apple has to pay more for shipping, packaging, an handling. Further, it has to price the update high enough for third parties selling the physical media to make some sort of profit. Finally, Apple has to account for unsold inventory every quarter, which negatively effects earnings.

You might be right about the delivery method being an issue for some people, but paying $69 for an update that several years ago people would have happily paid $129 seems a bit silly.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Elijahg View Post

I suspect as the article says it's partly the iOS feature-creep that some don't like, along with removal of Rosetta, and perhaps even the lack of Java (although it's auto-installed when needed). Also, I bet quite a high proportion of people are refraining because they don't have access to a high speed connection to download, or simply prefer to have a physical copy of the OS. Paying much more for a USB version isn't going to help matters.

Apple's always pushing technology forward, but perhaps a choice for Lion's install media would have been more appropriate. They could have tested the water with Lion, giving people a choice of DVD or App Store. 10.8 could then have been the time to let go of the old physical media installs.
post #21 of 162
I don't think its any of the complicated reasons. Its the same reason so many people still use XP.

There isn't much motivation to upgrade.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Elijahg View Post

I suspect as the article says it's partly the iOS feature-creep that some don't like, along with removal of Rosetta, and perhaps even the lack of Java (although it's auto-installed when needed). Also, I bet quite a high proportion of people are refraining because they don't have access to a high speed connection to download, or simply prefer to have a physical copy of the OS. Paying much more for a USB version isn't going to help matters.
post #22 of 162
For me, I was already to switch over to Lion Server ... until I found out that it no longer supports MySQL. That makes it really hard since I have a lot of php/mysql websites. Installing MySQL is possible, but creates a lot more work to reconfigure things.
post #23 of 162
Do you honestly think those issues have to do with Apple? It is Adobe being lazy as usual. You can run Lion and Snow Leopard Together using something like Fusion or Parallels.

Quote:
Originally Posted by obxwebdesigner View Post

One word Adobe!

I think I speak for most designers and developers that issues with Adobe after upgrading to lion. It may sound trivial but after reading the bug issues that adobe reports on its website of "known issues" is enough to keep me from upgrading.

I have things to do that's why I bought a Mac. If I wanted to "trick" the operating system to do what I want it to, I would have bought a PC. I don't have time nor the patients to beta test an operating system that is available for retail.

Nothig personal apple I love yah :-) but I'm sure that others in the design world feel the same way I do. If I'm not mistaken the design market is a fairly large percentage...

http://www.obxwebdesigner.com
post #24 of 162
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elijahg View Post

I suspect as the article says it's partly the iOS feature-creep that some don't like, along with removal of Rosetta, and perhaps even the lack of Java (although it's auto-installed when needed). Also, I bet quite a high proportion of people are refraining because they don't have access to a high speed connection to download, or simply prefer to have a physical copy of the OS. Paying much more for a USB version isn't going to help matters.

Well no problem with bandwidth here but you hit the nail on the head with Rosetta. I've updated a MacBook to Lion so that I could have a play with it, but I have three other iMacs that are are staying put on Snow Leopard until Apple or a third party provide a solution to being able to run orphaned PPC software. Even then I'd still not be ecstatic with what Lion has done to Spaces but I suppose I could learn to live with it.
post #25 of 162
I'm in the 84% and will not upgrade until I have no choice when I buy a new machine. The reason is simple - no Rosetta. Dumping a bunch of perfectly functional apps will be costly and inconvenient so I will put that off for as long as possible. Even with a new purchase, I intend to make a boot drive running 10.6 so I can still use those occasional and hard to replace apps.
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post #26 of 162
If anything I think the Required specs weren't high enough. My 2010 MBP is really quite slow on Lion. I did a clean install and everything and sometimes I can literally count to ten before Safari loads a page. Just today I tried switching users three times with the computer seemingly ignoring the clicks, I quit a few apps and then it caught the actions. Honestly unacceptable, i am strongly consider going back to SL, only thing is I do quite like the multi touch gestures, iCloud of course, resume, Airdrop, etc...

It's just too resource hungry... the suggested 4GB of RAM is really ludicrous. When a one year old machine crawls with the new update, either there's a memory leak or a bad decision here and there.
post #27 of 162
Lion has some pretty neat features but honestly I don't think most Mac users (especially if they're casual) are missing out on much.
post #28 of 162
Good luck with that one.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Serif View Post

until Apple or a third party provide a solution to being able to run orphaned PPC software.
post #29 of 162
I have Lion installed but have issues with it that almost make me want to roll back to Snow Leopard. One of the biggest problems I have is with Quicktime X, it is not all configurable and it auto pops up any last clips played and remembers the last movies you played (no way to set that easily), won't loop a lot of movies looks like mostly .wmv (yes I have flip4mac) and sometimes won't open movies at all. I don't understand why they let such a crap version of Quicktime go out and won't fix it. Also Safari freaks out on me sometimes and I can't get it to open any webpages (try checking Yahoo mail) and I have to reset it and restart it to get it to work. There are other gripes, I love it though but those issues sometimes make me want to go back to the good ole days. Yes I am mac savvy and have repaired permissions, etc.
post #30 of 162
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

.. if you have to re-download you get the latest version without having to reinstall all the updates afterwards, and you still get the ability to burn to disc if you so desire.

I purchased Lion through the app store on my MacBook Pro. So far, I have not had to reinstall. However, every time Apple updates Lion, I get notified that there is an update to the Lion install package sitting on my HD and it wants to download it. All 4+ GBs of it. This is on top of the active Lion installation getting updates through software update.

Sure, I don't have to download the update to the install package but there is no way to set the system to ignore it so the App store is constantly notifying me that a piece of software needs updating. Personally, I much rather have the base install of Lion and then have it go out and get the updates as needed if I reinstall rather than have it want to update a 4+ GB piece of software over and over again that I may actually never need.

I guess most people would consider this a minor issue and if it was any other company I would agree. But for a company like Apple to have such a screwed up system it is inexcusable.

Apple needs to sell Lion on optical media for the same price as the app store. And they need a way to tell the App store to ignore updates on any purchases if a user so chooses.

-kpluck

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post #31 of 162
Bertrand Serlet -> Craig Federighi is looking like a distinct downgrade. But that's probably being unfair, it is pretty clear the A team work on iOS, the B team work on Macintosh software.

The performance of Lion is not so good. They need to concentrate a bit more on fundamentals.
post #32 of 162
Quote:
Originally Posted by allblue View Post

I'm in the 84% and will not upgrade until I have no choice when I buy a new machine. The reason is simple - no Rosetta. Dumping a bunch of perfectly functional apps will be costly and inconvenient so I will put that off for as long as possible. Even with a new purchase, I intend to make a boot drive running 10.6 so I can still use those occasional and hard to replace apps.

Exactly. No Rosetta. Fix that, and most everyone else will switch over. Bad move, Apple.
post #33 of 162
Quote:
Originally Posted by alienzed View Post

If anything I think the Required specs weren't high enough. My 2010 MBP is really quite slow on Lion. I did a clean install and everything and sometimes I can literally count to ten before Safari loads a page. Just today I tried switching users three times with the computer seemingly ignoring the clicks, I quit a few apps and then it caught the actions. Honestly unacceptable, i am strongly consider going back to SL, only thing is I do quite like the multi touch gestures, iCloud of course, resume, Airdrop, etc...

It's just too resource hungry... the suggested 4GB of RAM is really ludicrous. When a one year old machine crawls with the new update, either there's a memory leak or a bad decision here and there.

There is definitely a memory leak with Lion, after a few days all 4gig of ram is used and "wired"! Safari is bar far the worst offender
post #34 of 162
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBell View Post

Do you honestly think those issues have to do with Apple? It is Adobe being lazy as usual. You can run Lion and Snow Leopard Together using something like Fusion or Parallels.

All I'm saying is the design world is big with apple. They go hand in hand and it should have been addressed before it was launched "RETAIL" to the public. (Not the beta for developers... that's why they have beta to address this before it goes live)

Not that I like Microsoft but lets just say they came out with a new operating system and just never checked out how Microsoft word or excel worked on the operating system. A pretty big after thought I think.

The point is its live now and it still isn't corrected that's why I haven't updated. That was the question "why havent users updated" and this is my answer.
post #35 of 162
Quote:
Originally Posted by kpluck View Post

Sure, I don't have to download the update to the install package but there is no way to set the system to ignore it so the App store is constantly notifying me that a piece of software needs updating.

Go into Mac App Store under Purchased and then click on the litle (x) that appears before Update for Lion's entry.
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post #36 of 162
Frankly, I am not surprised at all by this. Of the six Macs in active use in our household, I have upgraded one (and the other, an MBAir bought a couple of months ago came with it), and I have left the others untouched.

It has all sorts of connectivity issues -- Bluetooth and wifi connectivity has been a mess -- and I am not at all a fan of the autosave crap, now modified with a messy "Unlock, Duplicate....." etc nonsense that pops up (please bring back "Save As", Apple, save me the extra step). I have not used it in Launchpad mode once. And, many types of software I use (e.g., SPSS, Camtasia) are not compatible with it. Xcode has all kinds of issues. I could go on.....

So far, it has been a somewhat marginal, eye-candy, cute-sy, gee-look-we-have-something-new-for-the-sake-of-something-new upgrade for me.

Bottom line: People are not stupid.
post #37 of 162
It's the "versions" thing.
post #38 of 162
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBell View Post

Apple used to charge $129 for a major update. That included a box disk. It provided a single user a license. For a family license, Apple charged $199. Now you get the same caliber of update for $29. If you really need a hard copy, you can get that for $69. This license allows you install the OS on any computer using the same Apple ID. I'd say Apple is being more the generous. For proof, go compare Apple's options to the options Microsoft gives. Apple rocks.

Apple is giving people the price break because it doesn't want to ship physical media. With physical media, Apple has to pay more for shipping, packaging, an handling. Further, it has to price the update high enough for third parties selling the physical media to make some sort of profit. Finally, Apple has to account for unsold inventory every quarter, which negatively effects earnings.

You might be right about the delivery method being an issue for some people, but paying $69 for an update that several years ago people would have happily paid $129 seems a bit silly.

I have absolutely no complaint about the App Store method of upgrading (I thought it was a damn impressive feat), though I do feel the cost of the USB stick is a little high. Of course there are more costs involved in a USB stick, but Lion's going to be around for a few years yet so they've plenty of time to sell them all. Snow Leopard was $29 on DVD iirc. I do agree that it's a great price for Lion to be just $29, though there doesn't seem to be as many features packed into each release as there used to be in the Jaguar - Leopard years. I guess as the OS is becoming more mature, it's becoming more difficult to add unique new features. The majority don't seem to see any thing useful to them in Lion, and so think it's a waste of money to upgrade.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

I don't think its any of the complicated reasons. Its the same reason so many people still use XP.

There isn't much motivation to upgrade.

I agree, the only real thing I noticed in Lion is the extra speed. Though many seem to have had slow downs. The Finder is near enough the same as it has been since Panther, albeit with a rather less configurable sidebar. Apple's trying to take the filesystem away from us, but at the same time not really providing a decent way to access files. What the hell use is "All my files" for anyone who's owned a computer for more than a week?

I don't really use any of the other features in Lion, Mission Control is worse than Expose imo, you can't see individual windows of an app as easily. Launchpad is a complete gimmick, I spent more time messing with the different backgrounds I could get through command+option+b than I ever did launching an app through it. Spotlight is much faster as an app launcher. It seems Apple's iOS-ification of OS X isn't going down that well.
post #39 of 162
I am quite excited by Lion, but I didn't upgrade because Focusrite plug-ins are not compatible with Lion yet, also I am a bit reluctant to lose my PPC games. I guess a lot of people must be delaying the upgrade because of compatibility issues.
post #40 of 162
Oh well it is almost Christmas, so 'tis the season to kvetch and moan.

Here is my number one gripe with Lion: in the Finder in SL I can see how much disk space i have left. But not on Lion. On one occasion I was without knowing it very close to a full hard drive. I was transferring HD movies to the drive and it failed for lack of HD space. But there was not one warning that it would fail, and not one warning that it had failed. It was not until I looked at the folders some time later that I noticed that there were no files in them.

Now that is just brain dead. Who the hell thought that it was a good idea to take away information on file transfers and hard drive capacity?

The interface is slick and pretty, but a lot of the decisions seem to have been made by people who don't use computers for real tasks.
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