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Analyst casts doubt on Nokia's Windows Phone hopes

post #1 of 68
Thread Starter 
One analyst has drastically reduced shipment projections for Nokia's Windows Phone devices on the belief that the handset maker is unlikely to gain traction with its new lineup.

Pacific Crest Securities analyst James Faucette issued a research note on Tuesday cutting his sales forecast for Nokia's Windows Phone device sales from two million to as low as 500,000 units on concerns that they will fail to live up to expectations, as noted by The New York Times.

With no breakthrough innovation, we believe Nokias new phones are unlikely to get traction in a highly concentrated high end, he said, adding that the Lumia smartphones are not competitive on price or performance.

After announcing its partnership with Microsoft back in February, the world's largest handset maker unveiled the fruits of its labor, the Lumia 800 and the Lumia 710, last month. Both models are rolling out across Europe this month and are expected to arrive in Asia in early 2012.

Nokia's new Lumia 800 (left) and Lumia 710 are its first Windows Phones.

U.S. carrier AT&T has said it is close to reaching an agreement with Nokia to begin selling its Windows Phone offerings early next year. But, one executive for the company candidly admitted that he foresees "challenges" for Microsoft's platform because of competition from Apple and Google.

For its part, Nokia maintains that the level of preorders in the U.K. "has been higher for Lumia than any previous handset." Company spokesman Ray Haddow said that pre-sale numbers have led the company to be "very positive" about the Lumia 800.

Though Nokia still maintains a significant lead in global handset shipments, its share of the market slipped 5 percent year over year, according to Strategy Analytics. When it comes to smartphones, however, Nokia has fallen from the top to third place, behind Samsung and Apple, after losing more than half its global smartphone market share over the past year.

Microsoft is relying heavily on its new partner to build momentum for the Windows Phone platform. Recent third-quarter figures from Gartner show that the Microsoft's share of worldwide smartphone OS sales slid to 1.5 percent, down from 2.7 percent in 2010. Earlier this month, the software giant installed a 55-foot Windows Phone replica in a New York City park in an attempt to garner support for the platform.

During an annual Financial Analyst Meeting in September, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer said the company hadn't "sold quite as many" Windows Phones for the first year as he would have liked, though he did note that there was "enthusiasm" for the platform, according to AllThingsD.

I am not saying I love where we are, but I am very optimistic about where we can be, he said. We just have to kick this thing to the next level.
post #2 of 68
Financial Analysts, where everyone has turned for legit tech predictions since..............uh, never
post #3 of 68
I see a fair few ads in shop windows for the Lumia 800 here in the UK, probably more than for any single Android device.

I usually gauge how successful a phone is by how many I see on the train on my journey to work - I've watched the transition from wall to wall iPhones, to mostly Blackberrys, to the current state of a pretty even mix of iPhone, Blackberry, and Android. I've only ever seen a Windows Phone device once, so I'll be keeping an eye out or any Lumia 800s in the wild.
post #4 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by kotatsu View Post

... I've watched the transition from wall to wall iPhones, to mostly Blackberrys....

Say what?

Why does Apple bashing and trolling make people feel so good?

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Why does Apple bashing and trolling make people feel so good?

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post #5 of 68
What did Ballmer say? "I'd prefer to have our software on 60-70-80% of phones than 3-4%, which is what Apple might get".
post #6 of 68
The Lumia 800 seems to be doing very well in the UK.
post #7 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichL View Post

The Lumia 800 seems to be doing very well in the UK.

Yeah, I am sure they have sold tens of dozens. People like to say M$ is in this for the long game, but if they don'tmgain traction soon with their phones, I doubt they will stay in the phone business. Investors will get tired of a division constantly in the red and demand it gets cut.
post #8 of 68
The more steve-e-e speaks out about the phone running MS OS fewer "N" phones will be sold.
post #9 of 68
Stick a fork in this thing - it's already done.

By the time Nokia and MS get something halfway decent out the door the iPhone 5 will be on sale. They're about three years too late to this party.

Doomed.

Nokia is the next RIM.
post #10 of 68
As my girlfriend (who represents the average consumer) said so wonderfully about the HTC Titan, "It doesn't feel like a phone or computer, it feels real and natural."

WP7 is an incredible operating system for the average consumer despite some shortcomings us tech-inclined people see (I won't buy a phone without built-in voice navigation, for example). What WP7 lacked is a major manufacturer backing it up fully. Nokia has solved this issue partially, although it may be a bit too late in the United States for obvious reasons. Internationally though, I wouldn't be surprised to see WP7 catch up to iOS very quickly, Nokia has quite the reputation outside of the US.

Still, everything I say is speculation so why am I not on the front page? What's the point of publishing what an analyst says? They know nothing more than we do and any advanced ability is overshadowed by the fact that the variance in their calculations is almost entirely accounted for by speculation.
post #11 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by sunspot42 View Post

Stick a fork in this thing - it's already done.

By the time Nokia and MS get something halfway decent out the door the iPhone 5 will be on sale. They're about three years too late to this party.

Doomed.

Nokia is the next RIM.

Indeed. This is a market where a few weeks of delay in product launch is a death sentence. Here we are talking about years ! Meanwhile, Apple continues to make its products even more appealing ...
post #12 of 68
If you want something new or different they look very good. But I suspect if you've invested in lots of applications on IOS it will be harder to swap.
post #13 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dickprinter View Post

Say what?

That's what I saw. There was a time when pretty much everyone on my commuter train had an iPhone, then it genuinely went mostly Blackberry. Weird but true. Even now I still see a LOT of Blackberrys here in the UK. For some reason they remain very popular. Lots of Blackberry ads around too.
post #14 of 68
I think the 800 loves pretty good. My first colour cell phone was a Nokia and I used to love their models. If I was to go back to a different phone from the iPhone, I would probably go back to Nokia. My second preference would be Sony-Ericcson.

But I am a practical example of Steve Jobs' theory. I bought the iPod 3rd Gen and that got me interested in an iPhone and then I bought an iMac, a MBP, the iPads and an MBA for my wife. I really don't see myself going back to a non-Apple environment, apart from where it is inevitable, like using Windows at work (with Bootcamp).
post #15 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by kotatsu View Post

I see a fair few ads in shop windows for the Lumia 800 here in the UK, probably more than for any single Android device.

I usually gauge how successful a phone is by how many I see on the train on my journey to work - I've watched the transition from wall to wall iPhones, to mostly Blackberrys, to the current state of a pretty even mix of iPhone, Blackberry, and Android. I've only ever seen a Windows Phone device once, so I'll be keeping an eye out or any Lumia 800s in the wild.

"from wall to wall iPhones, to mostly Blackberrys". Where on earth do you get trains in the UK?

I see mostly iPhones on my train journeys, in the West Midlands and M40 corridor, and have done since 2008-9. Only before 2009 was it "mostly Blackberries".
post #16 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by chabig View Post

What did Ballmer say? "I'd prefer to have our software on 60-70-80% of phones than 3-4%, which is what Apple might get".

LOL, yes, what a buffoon!

Apple now has closer to the 60% of [smart]phones (most of what Nokia calls smartphones really don't count as they are only slightly enhanced Symbian candy-bar phones), versus Microsoft which I'm pretty sure has less than the 3-4% he baulked at for Apple :P

When are the shareholders going to boot the idiot out and put someone with a clue in charge?

Microsoft should be way more focused/innovative than it currently is, they rarely "push the envelope "any more, and I'm genuinely saddened by the fact.
post #17 of 68
Where's my tissue? I need to wipe a tear from my eye.

Ok. I'm ready to go.

Sure, Microsoft will sell a few phones, but who cares? The odds of them derailing the Android train are slim to none.

If Ballmer seriously thinks Microsoft can pull one out of the bag, I'll have a hit of whatever he's smoking. From here on out, Microsoft will always be playing third fiddle.

Heck, even Apple will be in tough. Unless Apple can turn the tide in the new year, 2012 will be the year Android pulls away from the pack.

Don't let me down Mr. Cook.
post #18 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by RedPill View Post

always

Heck, even Apple will be in tough. Unless Apple can turn the tide in the new year, 2012 will be the year Android pulls away from the pack.

Don't let me down Mr. Cook.

You do not have a larger font ?
post #19 of 68
From Germany:

The Nokia Windows phones will more than likely take roughly 50% of the market here very shortly when they are released. Germans LOVE Nokia... even though Nokia built a plant a few years ago with govt. money and then later shut it down, releasing it's "guarenteed jobs" to the streets. Not nice, but didn't, and still doesn't, affect people's trust and purchase of a decent Nokia phone.

The word is out on Android devices: cheap and worse security than WindowsXP; nobody wants to deal with that! Warnings on every front page media, web and print recently.

iOS: still chugging along for those in the know and from certain "consultants" ~ ~ that steer them in the right direction. I'd guesstimate a solid 40% in the future. That's smartphones BTW.

Truth is, most people are still content with... yes... their Nokia feature phones. Many people (private consumers) can't justify the price and contract of a "real" Smartphone. On the other hand, business people love the iPhone, because they can deduct the entire cost from their business expenses and taxes.

I do believe the tech guys in IT will jump all over the Windows phone, and forcefully "recommend" it over the iPhone... just because they still feel most comfortable in that "arena".

HOWEVER... it is amazing how many Macs one sees on TV in report shows: doctors, lawyers, teachers... even quite a few consumers. Apple is definitely getting noticed and used outside of the traditional publishing, printing and media industries. I'm always proud to be a part of, and help with, that transition
Knowing what you are talking about would help you understand why you are so wrong. By "Realistic" - AI Forum Member
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post #20 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dickprinter View Post

Say what?

I'm as puzzled as you.
post #21 of 68
Steve ballmer is an idiot but I feel sorry for the MS employees who created WP7, sort of like how I feel sorry for the creators of OS2.

As with OS2, WP7 appears to be a better product than the market-share leader (in this case android), yet WP7 faces the immense challenge of gaining traction in a rapidly maturing market.

Unless android collapses due to patent issues, the lumia 800 is probably WP7's last chance.
post #22 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by sunspot42 View Post

Nokia is the next RIM.

I thought RIM was the next Nokia?
post #23 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by ErosLWS View Post

As my girlfriend (who represents the average consumer) said so wonderfully about the HTC Titan, "It doesn't feel like a phone or computer, it feels real and natural."

So if the windows phone doesn't "feel" like a phone or a like a computer - what exactly is "real and natural" for a device that is supposed to be both a phone and a portable computer?


Quote:
Originally Posted by ErosLWS View Post

I won't buy a phone without built-in voice navigation, for example

Meaning you won't buy an iPhone until the default included map software has spoken navigation assistance? Seems like an artificial reason to me - I have been using MapQuest on my iPhone for years - not only does it include spoken turn by turn navigation - but it is free and has been improved a number of times and now shows ETA (which was one of the main reasons I still use the TomTom) - and you can go to the mapuest website to do some route planning and then access that from the phone. There is still some room for improvement - but it works very well.
post #24 of 68
Their marketing plan is obvious, HP already showed the way. Plan to lose a fortune on this thing to get it in as many hands as possible and you'll shift boat loads. Especially if there is a way to wipe it and install some version of Android.
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini, SE30, IIFx, Towers; G4 & G3.
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Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini, SE30, IIFx, Towers; G4 & G3.
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post #25 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichL View Post

The Lumia 800 seems to be doing very well in the UK.

So are deep fried Mars Bars I hear.
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini, SE30, IIFx, Towers; G4 & G3.
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Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini, SE30, IIFx, Towers; G4 & G3.
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post #26 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

Their marketing plan is obvious, HP already showed the way. Plan to lose a fortune on this thing to get it in as many hands as possible and you'll shift boat loads. Especially if there is a way to wipe it and install some version of Android.

Dilbert ?
post #27 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThePixelDoc View Post

From Germany:

The Nokia Windows phones will more than likely take roughly 50% of the market here very shortly when they are released. Germans LOVE Nokia... even though Nokia built a plant a few years ago with govt. money and then later shut it down, releasing it's "guarenteed jobs" to the streets. Not nice, but didn't, and still doesn't, affect people's trust and purchase of a decent Nokia phone.

The word is out on Android devices: cheap and worse security than WindowsXP; nobody wants to deal with that! Warnings on every front page media, web and print recently.

iOS: still chugging along for those in the know and from certain "consultants" ~ ~ that steer them in the right direction. I'd guesstimate a solid 40% in the future. That's smartphones BTW.

Truth is, most people are still content with... yes... their Nokia feature phones. Many people (private consumers) can't justify the price and contract of a "real" Smartphone. On the other hand, business people love the iPhone, because they can deduct the entire cost from their business expenses and taxes.

I do believe the tech guys in IT will jump all over the Windows phone, and forcefully "recommend" it over the iPhone... just because they still feel most comfortable in that "arena".

HOWEVER... it is amazing how many Macs one sees on TV in report shows: doctors, lawyers, teachers... even quite a few consumers. Apple is definitely getting noticed and used outside of the traditional publishing, printing and media industries. I'm always proud to be a part of, and help with, that transition

"When they are released" is the key. They are already late and it's nice to know my visits to 2 stores in Switzerland to take a look at a Nokia with the Windows OS went no where as I could not find any. Appears to be the same case in Germany.

Yes, the German IT departments may "forcefully" "recommend" Windows. That will work in Germany, it's not going to work anywhere else. And Nokia needs a lot more than Germany to exist.

My wife now has a new 4s. Exciting, no. I had hoped to try out the new Nokia's. Maybe in 2 years.
post #28 of 68
The analyst is out of his mind. The Nokia brand will sell millions of phones in Europe and Asia. Maybe not in the US, but the Nokia brand will drive a lot of marketshare.
post #29 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThePixelDoc View Post

I'm always proud to be a part of, and help with, that transition

And the more you spend on Apple products, the prouder you can be.

Any time your self-worth takes a hit, just buy a new gadget! Then you can be proud of yourself again.
post #30 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by ConradJoe View Post

And the more you spend on Apple products, the prouder you can be.

Any time your self-worth takes a hit, just buy a new gadget! Then you can be proud of yourself again.

Retail therapy can be less expensive and more rewarding than other forms of therapy - at least until you have to file for bankruptcy.
post #31 of 68
The Nokia cloner Windows Phone is DOA just like I predicted. No sales numbers means only one thing...it is not selling. Why would a Nokia cloner Windows Phone magically sell when no other cloner Windows Phones are selling? Because the OS is garbage, that is why. The UI is terrible and totally unusable.
post #32 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dickprinter View Post

Say what?

This is the UK - contrarian leadership of the EU!
post #33 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by lilgto64 View Post

So if the windows phone doesn't "feel" like a phone or a like a computer - what exactly is "real and natural" for a device that is supposed to be both a phone and a portable computer?

The Windows Phone UI feels alive. In comparison other phones feel like you are prodding a dead zombie corpse to do your bidding. HTC Sense and some other Android skins are a little different, they are more like prodding a zombie corpse dressed for the mardi gras.

It's hard to find words to explain the Windows Phone UI unless you've played with it, but "real and natural" is a pretty good attempt.

Unfortunately for Microsoft "it feels alive" isn't a field on a check list of features people look for when purchasing a smartphone, it doesn't translate well in video or print and no-one owns a Windows Phone for other people to have hands on experience with.
post #34 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eye Forget View Post

"When they are released" is the key. They are already late and it's nice to know my visits to 2 stores in Switzerland to take a look at a Nokia with the Windows OS went no where as I could not find any. Appears to be the same case in Germany.

Yes, the German IT departments may "forcefully" "recommend" Windows. That will work in Germany, it's not going to work anywhere else. And Nokia needs a lot more than Germany to exist.

My wife now has a new 4s. Exciting, no. I had hoped to try out the new Nokia's. Maybe in 2 years.

Not sure if you caught what I was getting at, and it wasn't cheerleading for Win/Kia at all. It was just stating facts and prognostications as i see it here in Germany.

If anything, I'm betting AGAINST Android taking the "left-overs" from iOS dominance in the Smartphone race. I was even being conservative really.

Fact is that Android, at the moment, is the new "feature phone" replacement on the block, which until lately, was dominated by Nokia. It will be interesting to see whether Nokia fans pony-up with Windows 7 or 8... but I think they will.

As for Blackberry: I'm getting ready any day now for the announcement that they are being bought, partnering with someone, or will be taken private by some Saudi sheik.

That has been my betting line for more than a year I believe (you could check my posts here at AI). They've went from a high of almost $70.- down to less than $17.- in LESS than a year.

Can anyone say: takeover target!? Yes... they do have some IP, so it is "worth" something. Maybe Canadian Wampum?
Knowing what you are talking about would help you understand why you are so wrong. By "Realistic" - AI Forum Member
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post #35 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by ConradJoe View Post

And the more you spend on Apple products, the prouder you can be.

Any time your self-worth takes a hit, just buy a new gadget! Then you can be proud of yourself again.

If you can name just one better integrated system than what Apple has to offer across all of it's devices, and 2 "close-to-perfect" OSes, I'll take a look at it to offer my clients and purchase myself.

Fact is: you can't. There is none.

There's a little known metric regarding service and support, called ROI. Something that the other systems out there, forget to tell their customers... because they can't beat Apple at it. Not now and I don't see it in the future. Although, even MS is working on something called the Signature Series for desktops. I believe the one (but not only!) MS Fan and Apple bot basher Ed BotT at ZDnet has an article about it.

Fact: I personally service more clients, with less time spent, and less frustration on my client's and my part.... than I did with Windows (servers mostly). Pay a little more up front, and save A LOT more down the road... including your sanity.

Sorry to bum ya out... but I can't install Macs, iPhones, and iPads fast enough.

Maybe it's your own pride and self-worth that needs a pick me up? And just maybe you're mistaking your lack there of, because you own, have, or create nothing worth being proud of? My sympathies!

BTW: If you care to take a look at my past posts, I mainly sell and consult to small businesses. Hey, it's tight over here in Europe... and I have to really work to pull people's "pennies" out. But when they do, they want something that stands up to "the" and "my" hype. With Apple's products, I'm confident I can do that... and more. Nothing to do with pride, status, and/or self worth.... "It just works".... and it's ALL about getting WORK done as much, as soon, and as painless a possible.

If there's time left for fun and entertainment... well I believe Apple has that covered too as a bonus.
Knowing what you are talking about would help you understand why you are so wrong. By "Realistic" - AI Forum Member
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post #36 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by RedPill View Post


Microsoft

Android

Apple

Mr. Cook.

All fixed. I changed the font size to something more appropriate for you, and removed any uninformed rhetoric

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #37 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post

Steve ballmer is an idiot but I feel sorry for the MS employees who created WP7, sort of like how I feel sorry for the creators of OS2.

As with OS2, WP7 appears to be a better product than the market-share leader (in this case android), yet WP7 faces the immense challenge of gaining traction in a rapidly maturing market.

Unless android collapses due to patent issues, the lumia 800 is probably WP7's last chance.

WP7 was probably Microsoft's most original operating system ever. Unlike Android, it doesn't come across as a copy of other operating systems (even ICS comes across as a mix between old Android and WebOS).

I would like to see WP gain traction among manufacturers, since I don't want to see Android become to smartphones was Windows was to PCs. iOS is settling into the "Mac" niche in this analogy, albeit a much larger niche than OS X ever enjoyed. A successful WP keeps the mobile market active.
post #38 of 68
The failure to get an instant hit product from WP7 out of Nokia shouldn't surprise anyone. I've been saying from the beginning that this wouldn't do well.

There are several problems. The first is that WP7 is woefully unpopular here, in its home market. In fact, marketshare has dropped even further this past quarter. Sales have never been more than about 1.7 million a quarter, and often have been below 1.5 million. That's a very small number.

What makes that worse, is that the phone is being offered by four manufactures, with at least nine models. And two of those manufacturers are HTC and Samsung, the two most popular Android phone manufacturers, if they can't sell WP7 there is no reason the believe Nokia will do any better. Worldwide, Samsung has surpassed Nikia in smartphone sales, as Nokia's sales keep shrinking. So that's not just a US thing.

The other problem is Nokia's image these days. Whenelop first took over, he wanted to make his mark quickly, and let the world know that he understood their problems as previous management didn't. That very good. But he did it all wrong. That infamous memo he sent out has helped destroy trust in the company, and so their smartphone sales fell much more rapidly than the company haspd expected. In fact, a couple of quarters ago, they stated that. I wasn't surprised.

As I said here at the time, that memo was a major mistake, and showed a lack of understanding of business 101 principles. The memor was as follows, not in the exact words, perhaps.

"We poured oil on our burning platform (Symbian), and are now jumping into the icy sea (WP7) where we may not survive (WP7 may fail as well as Symbian has).

The words in parens are mine. This damages Nokia severely. It tells people that they screwed what they had, and what they're moving to may be screwed as well. Not very confidence building. So we've got a very unpopular WP7 being put on phones manufactured by Nokia, a company whose reputation has been almost ruined. How does that combo do well?

I think they will sell WP7 phones, but not in the number both companies expect, and need. This hurts Nokia more so than MS, who has a very large and profitable business anyway. But if this is seen as a failure for Nokia, it could be the effective finish of that company. No company can survive just making cheap phones, because there's no profit in that part of the business.
post #39 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

No company can survive just making cheap phones, because there's no profit in that part of the business.

Have some mercy

Thin margin business has to be carried out by some companies. I don't think all people will have or need smartphones. More than half people will keep using feature phones. But, Nokia can't make big bucks, that's for sure.
post #40 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

So are deep fried Mars Bars I hear.

That's in Scotland (shortest life span in the UK).

For its part, Nokia maintains that the level of preorders in the U.K. "has been higher for Lumia than any previous handset."

Of other Nokia handsets perhaps but no way ANY other handset.

Nokia dropped the ball years ago by not being inventive, releasing too many products and not supporting them after release (sounds like most Android phones).
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