Analyst casts doubt on Nokia's Windows Phone hopes - Page 2

Originally Posted by jj.yuan

Have some mercy

Thin margin business has to be carried out by some companies. I don't think all people will have or need smartphones. More than half people will keep using feature phones. But, Nokia can't make big bucks, that's for sure.

Originally Posted by Evilution

That's in Scotland (shortest life span in the UK).

For its part, Nokia maintains that the level of preorders in the U.K. "has been higher for Lumia than any previous handset."

Of other Nokia handsets perhaps but no way ANY other handset.

Nokia dropped the ball years ago by not being inventive, releasing too many products and not supporting them after release (sounds like most Android phones).

Originally Posted by Firefly7475

The Windows Phone UI feels alive.

Originally Posted by sunspot42

Stick a fork in this thing - it's already done.

By the time Nokia and MS get something halfway decent out the door the iPhone 5 will be on sale. They're about three years too late to this party.

Doomed.

Nokia is the next RIM.

Originally Posted by melgross

Sorry, but various studies have shown that cheap phones are like cheap computers, either they lose money, or at best, break even. The problem that Nokia has is that local companies in China and even India now, are moving in on their cheap phone business and taking business from that. Apple and various Android vendors are taking the profitable high end smartphone business away, and that gives them problems. If you look at their financials, you will see many problems.

Do you know that Nokia makes over 200 different phones? Most sell in relatively small numbers.

They are firing large numbers of people, closing factories, shutting down internal software development; all bad news.

Twenty years ago, Motorola seemed unassailable. They were one of the biggest, most advanced technology companies, and for years, the biggest cell phone manufacturer. But look what happened to them since.

Nokia is on that track. Even Nokia Siemens, their industrial networking manufacturing arm is in big trouble. This is a company in serious decline.

Remember, just a few years ago they had 60% of the worlds smartphone market, but now it's below 17%, and shrinking. This is where they make their profits, or used to, as they aren't making a profit now.

Originally Posted by bullhead

The Nokia cloner Windows Phone is DOA just like I predicted. No sales numbers means only one thing...it is not selling. Why would a Nokia cloner Windows Phone magically sell when no other cloner Windows Phones are selling? Because the OS is garbage, that is why. The UI is terrible and totally unusable.

Originally Posted by Firefly7475

The Windows Phone UI feels alive. In comparison other phones feel like you are prodding a dead zombie corpse to do your bidding. HTC Sense and some other Android skins are a little different, they are more like prodding a zombie corpse dressed for the mardi gras.

It's hard to find words to explain the Windows Phone UI unless you've played with it, but "real and natural" is a pretty good attempt.

Unfortunately for Microsoft "it feels alive" isn't a field on a check list of features people look for when purchasing a smartphone, it doesn't translate well in video or print and no-one owns a Windows Phone for other people to have hands on experience with.

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

[...] With no breakthrough innovation, we believe Nokias new phones are unlikely to get traction in a highly concentrated high end, he said, adding that the Lumia smartphones are not competitive on price or performance. [...]

Originally Posted by Evilution

Nokia dropped the ball years ago by not being inventive,

Originally Posted by lilgto64

I have tried the new Tiles interface - although in a VM on a Mac - perhaps the experience is entirely different on a touch screen device - but on a computer it doesn't impress me.

Originally Posted by jfanning

Please explain what you mean, why was Nokia not "inventive"

Originally Posted by ErosLWS

As my girlfriend (who represents the average consumer) said so wonderfully about the HTC Titan, "It doesn't feel like a phone or computer, it feels real and natural."

Originally Posted by Curmudgeon

Just curious as to why you place so much value on the iPhone 5? Do you really expect something new and radical? I expect LTE compatibility and a new physical look and feel. That's about it. I expect pretty much the exact same interface. There's far too many people invested in the current interface to make any radical changes. So personally, I don't really see a huge jump from 4S to 5.

Microsoft on the other hand has attempted to present something that *is* new and radical. The user interface is unlike anything Apple is doing. This is both a good and bad thing of course, depending on your preferences. If I were a social person, with FaceBook and Twitter being a priority in my life, I'd really like to give Windows Phone a try. I'm impressed with the way they've integrated those two services into the user interface. Not just separate apps, but integrated centrally with your contacts. It's people oriented, rather than app oriented. I find that interesting. I'm not willing to dismiss WP7 out of hand as so many do. Too many see the word Microsoft and just want to write it off.

Originally Posted by jfanning

Please explain what you mean, why was Nokia not "inventive"

Originally Posted by karmadave

I think many people under-estimate Microsoft, especially in the Enterprise. IT Managers looking for alternatives to RIM will look seriously at WP7 for several reasons:

- It's running a Microsoft OS just like the majority of PC's in their company.
- They can cost-effectively deploy, manage, and secure it.
- It's integrates easily with Exchange which most corporations run.

Microsoft will not become as dominant in smartphones as they are in PC's and Servers, as Apple grows and RIM tries to hang on. Android poses the biggest challenge to corporate IT departments, in my opinion, as it proliferates too many versions and has too many security holes. Plus, Google's whole business model for Android is based on mobile advertising which is the LAST thing corporate IT departments want!

My prediction is that in the Enterprise it's a 3 way race between Apple, RIM, and MS while in the Consumer space it's Google, Apple, and MS. Apple is in a strong position, especially in the Enterprise, but do NOT discount Microsoft.

Originally Posted by gprovida

It is still way too early to make predictions. Google Android is just beginning to get nailed on IP from Micrsoft, Oracle, and Apple, there is enormous risk for hardware vendors on Google platform. Some are getting MS insurance with a deal to sell their phones with windows. Nokia has a huge presence and if it leverages windows on its low end it can disrupt the market and work it's way up to higher end. MS has huge credibility in the Enterprise so tying Nkia Windows to MSExchange, SharePoint, and Office will have huge leverage especially with phone management and security. The Enterprise mindlessly does MS so this is a great lever for Nokia.

In reality there is a lot of true innovation in the MS UI versus Android's pcopying Apple and will introduce new options to users, especially when integrated with desktop and thei tablet. While they have a lot of legacy baggage the foundations are slowly emerging.

Nokia's big problem is not selling MS phones but rather making profit. Like PCs the real money will be on the OS, ecosystem, and underlying technology (like INTEL with PCs) not diving to the low price low profit space PC makers struggle.

My bet is they will start slow but build momentum as Google Android get IP nailed, Enterprise piles on, and low end Nokia Windows devices expand.

Regarding the US, their biggest problem is brand recognition, they will prob be known as MS Windows phone company whose name no one can remember.

Nokia has chosen to bet the company to be a commodity hardware vendor for MS - not a good place to be.

Originally Posted by Curmudgeon

Microsoft on the other hand has attempted to present something that *is* new and radical.

Originally Posted by melgross

Because they stuck with Symbian long after they were told it wasn't able to keep up. And they must have known that. Reviews of their smartphones would tell a nice story about the hardware, often enough, but then mention the problems with the OS. Jerky operation, things buried too far down. Too many clicks. Non responsive UI, etc. all signs of an obsolete OS that is being pushed far beyond what it was capable of doing.

Nokia wasn't capable enough itself to see that. At least, not at the highest levels, where as late as six months before he was received of duty, Ollie called the iPhone a "boutique phone", and dismissed Android altogether.

This is a company that was not only incapable of invention, but was clueless, and lacked the ability to innovate (likely the word he meant, as you were probing to find out).

Now, they are reaping what they sowed. Which is not much.

Originally Posted by Splash-reverse

Yeah, high pre-orders... It's because they comes with free XBOX Slim. The chavs will queue up for that sure.

Originally Posted by sunspot42

If by "feels alive" you mean, "feels like sticking your finger in a pool of maggots", then yes, I'd agree with you.

Originally Posted by lilgto64

I have tried the new Tiles interface - although in a VM on a Mac - perhaps the experience is entirely different on a touch screen device - but on a computer it doesn't impress me.

Originally Posted by jfanning

Pardon? I asked someone a question, if wasn't you, but what you came back with has nothing to do with the question. You are rambling, about what I don't know, but rambling is what you are doing.

Originally Posted by melgross

My answer is true to the question. You just don't want to read it.

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

Pacific Crest Securities analyst James Faucette issued a research note on Tuesday cutting his sales forecast for Nokia's Windows Phone device sales from two million to as low as 500,000 units on concerns that they will fail to live up to expectations, as noted by The New York Times.