Originally Posted by addicted44
Honestly, I am not a huge fan of Splits/Buybacks etc. I think, in general, management has too many incentives to do them at the worst time possible, and only lead to double taxation.
That being said, it does seem to me that the lack of interest paid towards the stock by Apple is playing a role in dragging down the stock (not sure about the magnitude..it may only be having a few cents of effect, or maybe hurting the stock by double digit dollars). It might not hurt Apple to give it a try right now. OTOH, the ability to operate without considering the stock price has certainly played a large part in making Apple, Apple.
Very much agreed. It was part of how Steve Jobs made Apple, "Apple", kind of like the punk-rocker amongst a group of suit and tie adult-contemporary musicians, who makes more money than all of them whilst flipping them the bird.... And people question why Apple is so "cool" to people?
My theory is that if Tim Cook decides to play the Wall Street Game, and "hang out at the Clubs", per-se, then in the short term, this will be extremely beneficial to the Stock. I think that if he made a peep in a direction clearly aimed to drive the price up, the players will rally. However, in the long term, THAT is what could make Apple "Just another company". Wall Street will suck you dry if you let them. I like Apple's game-plan, BUT, I wouldn't mind a taste of acknowledgement by the new CEO and team at this time, enough to support the Stock, and enough to give an ominous voice against anyone who'd "dare" naysay against Apple. However, it's really a fine line.
I do feel that Apple has more tools to put to use were they under the impression that they needed to rally the Stock up, than about any company out there. Untapped areas, a company that doesn't acknowledge its own Stock or Wall Street, etc.
On another subject, Apple guided uncharacteristically high this Quarter. A good idea? Hopefully! I took their word for it, and decided not to listen to the "Analysts" this time, so if what they're saying is true, even under a VERY conservative P/E and Stock valuation, following the Companies own earnings should put nice profits into Investors who got sucked into buying at the Highs, just before earnings, expecting the usual giant jump in Share price.
If they miss their own estimates, the Stock will get punished once again, however, regardless, the Quarter will be a phenomenal blowout, and people will try and pin it on Cook's perceived "Newbie-ness", when in actuality, they guided shortly after Jobs' passing, and I believe that Cook probably had little to do (in terms of any uncharacteristic behavior) with the Guidance this quarter.
One thing that I haven't seen mentioned here, is how Apple's last quarter "miss" was a 110% proving point as to how much Analysts salivate at the Apple headline. Apple shattered their own expectations, which is ALL that matters. Also, they had the perfect and justifiable excuse: Widely known new iPhone on the way. And guess what? As AAPL's shares got punished for a falsified "miss", they were reporting record breaking numbers on the new iPhone. To me, this spells: Buying Opportunity for the Savvy (obvious, really) Investor. Again, hopefully I'm right.
Had AAPL not been mis-reported and mishandled after the previous Earnings Call, the Share would have hit over $450 (it was trading higher than $427 I believe) easily, and would have continued after, as the Market rallied. $500 would have been in sight by the end of the year, of course, Political situations would have perhaps had their way with that, however.
Again, I feel that all "obvious's" point toward AAPL being currently at a level where Investors will slap themselves for not taking advantage of it in the near future. What dragged the Stock down, before the Europe "World is ending" headlines resurfaced with a vengeance, was baseless and humoring iPad "Cuts" rumors, same thing that happens evveery Quarter, and is usually disproven, and those who bought on the dips, usually benefit.
Now, the day before those rumors, AAPL finally started gaining its traction back, and the falsified "miss" of earnings seemed to be getting shaken off, as the Stock rallied, and closed just below $410. Then, ironically, some "source-less", baseless rumors float around, and [Explicit] like Jim Cramer do 180's on words supportive words they stated just a couple weeks before (nothing changed!)?
As well, after "the fall", Apple has showed decent resistance to the Markets fall, however, inevitably got sucked in. It even rallied on one of the days where the Market tanked as a whole. I feel that the "perception" of AAPL tanking is overblown, as they went down for a couple of days on some (baseless/rumored/falsified) "bad news", which is par for the course for AAPL, but then the general Market hit the fan, plunging AAPL with it, making it "appear" as if the Stock is on a spiral, when it's just following the pack. I feel that when the Market rebounds, AAPL will do so at a much higher rate, as the value will become paramount. If not in the near term, then we have Q1 coming up, and a plethora of new products next year. In the near-long term, I think it's spelled out for us.