Originally Posted by ConradJoe
I think it is still early in the game. This era has similarities with the frothy mid-1980's where platforms collided and competed.
Microsoft was never first back then either.
I think the iPad market is a lot more mature than people realize. In my mind, the iPad market has existed for a decade. The iPad provides three clear functions (i) email access, (ii) internet access, and (iii) inexpensive simple portable gaming.
These features were previously provided by blackberry phones, netbooks, and handheld video game devices. The iPad does all three and it is decimating those markets. The other thing that the iPad does is provides content....music, movies, and TV. The content probably doesn't cause someone to purchase the device, but it contributes substantially to its continued use.
The kindle Fire provides the three benefits, albeit not as well as the iPad, but it does it at a substantially reduced cost. In addition, the Fire produces content. Therefore, I expect the Kindle to be commercially successful.
Even if Microsoft can produce a good operating system, it isn't clear that Microsoft and its partners can make any money doing it and it isn't clear that they will be able to provide content so that people keep using the devices. I'm not saying it is not possible, I just don't think Microsoft is talented or creative enough to make it happen.