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Apple's best November ever saw supply chain sales spike 17% in one month

post #1 of 13
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Apple remains on track to report its best quarter in company history, with new data from the company's supply chain showing sales up 17 percent month over month in November.

Brian White of Ticonderoga Securities watches the "Apple Barometer," a proprietary index of various Taiwan-based suppliers that derive a significant portion of their revenues from Apple. The latest data from the Apple Barometer shows supply chain sales up 17 percent month over month, a number well above the average 2 percent month over month growth seen over the last six years.

In fact, White said that the numbers show Apple on track to post the company's best November in history. That would be in line with expectations, as the newly launched iPhone 4S, the hot-selling iPad 2, and growing popularity of Apple's Mac platform are expected to propel the Cupertino, Calif., company to new heights during this holiday season.

Company officials even said as much in Apple's last quarterly earnings conference call in October. Chief Financial Officer Peter Oppenheimer told investors he expects Apple to set new company records for both the iPhone and iPad in the December quarter.

White said the strong performance of Apple's supply chain in the month of November follows a relatively weak October that prompted some investor concern. But reduced shipments in the month of October, particularly for the iPad 2, are believed to be due to the fact that Apple ordered an abundance of units in the preceding quarter.

"After negative supply chain data points dragged Apple's stock lower in November, we believe today's Apple Barometer print will provide fuel for the stock to move higher in the near term," White wrote.
post #2 of 13
"In other news, Apple's stock plunged to $350 on this note. Investors were quoted as saying, 'Why would we let the stock get up where it's supposed to be? That seems rather silly, doesn't it?' Analysts still have Apple on track for $640 a share, but Wall Street seems to have missed the memo. More at 11."
post #3 of 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

"In other news, Apple's stock plunged to $350 on this note. Investors were quoted as saying, 'Why would we let the stock get up where it's supposed to be? That seems rather silly, doesn't it?' Analysts still have Apple on track for $640 a share, but Wall Street seems to have missed the memo. More at 11."

LOL. I'm using this as opportunity to increase my position. I bought another $20K when it dropped to $365 a couple of weeks ago. I'm hoping that there is one more big drop before the earnings announcement.

I was in the Apple store over the weekend. It was mobbed. The iPhone 4S was still selling out everyday. Apple's biggest challenge in retail is keeping a high level of customer service @ such high volumes

There's a good chance Apple will exceed $40B in revenues for this quarter. Pretty wild

Windows survivor - after a long, epic and painful struggle. Very long AAPL

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Windows survivor - after a long, epic and painful struggle. Very long AAPL

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post #4 of 13
didn't analyst say last month that demand was waning or that the component orders were dropping? Shows you what analysts know, which is nothing.

Analyst: Let's pull numbers out of thin air and credit anonymous sources and make up status checks.
post #5 of 13
"After negative supply chain data points dragged Apple's stock lower in November, we believe today's Apple Barometer print will provide fuel for the stock to move higher in the near term,"

Now you've done it. Be prepared for another dip from another positive outlook.
post #6 of 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wings View Post

"After negative supply chain data points dragged Apple's stock lower in November, we believe today's Apple Barometer print will provide fuel for the stock to move higher in the near term,"

Now you've done it. Be prepared for another dip from another positive outlook.

As usual, AAPL will run up towards 1st qtr results, then dip on softer predictions for 2nd qtr, which is traditionally their quietest qtr. I think it will break through it's all time high in the week leading up to the announcement, then fall back 5% or so, unless the Eurozone has a horrible Xmas, the we are all in for a fright.
post #7 of 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

The latest data from the Apple Barometer shows supply chain sales up 17 percent month over month, a number well above the average 2 percent month over month growth seen over the last six years.

When faced with new information, it is always prudent to do something to evaluate whether that information is reliable. You do that by comparing past data provided by that source with verified information.

We know that Apple's overall sales have increased by an average of about 60% per year for the past 3 years. The above estimate of 2% per month corresponds to 26% per year (compounded). So their average results are not in agreement with known figures - and the estimates are probably not reliable.
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
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"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
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post #8 of 13
This is not much news. Calendar Q4 has always been the best of the year, and set new records. This is what we expect. So if they did not do so this year, it would be a total disaster.
post #9 of 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by Red Oak View Post

LOL. I'm using this as opportunity to increase my position. I bought another $20K when it dropped to $365 a couple of weeks ago. I'm hoping that there is one more big drop before the earnings announcement.

I was in the Apple store over the weekend. It was mobbed. The iPhone 4S was still selling out everyday. Apple's biggest challenge in retail is keeping a high level of customer service @ such high volumes

There's a good chance Apple will exceed $40B in revenues for this quarter. Pretty wild

Dutch UPS had a pretty bad infarct the last couple of days. They blamed Apple for it.

J.
post #10 of 13
I would generally prefer that Apple invest its cash back into its business rather than pay out dividends. But I'm beginning to see the value of strategically buying back stock when the market over-reacts to unsubstantiated rumors. Clearly Apple management is in a position to know which rumors are true and which are false, and can therefore know better than individual investors when the stock is being driven lower by BS. It might be nice if Apple bought back shares in those instances to punish the stock manipulators.
post #11 of 13
-2.30 USD for the stock...
post #12 of 13
I can't believe no one said this yet.

Apple is Doomed™

In a more serious note, I'm glad Apple is growing but what's next? Will we see a repeat of the desktop and smartphone market with tablets?

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iPod nano 5th Gen 8GB Orange, iPad 3rd Gen WiFi 32GB White
MacBook Pro 15" Core i7 2.66GHz 8GB RAM 120GB Intel 320M
Mac mini Core 2 Duo 2.4GHz 8GB RAM, iPhone 5 32GB Black

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post #13 of 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aizmov View Post

I can't believe no one said this yet.

Apple is Doomed

In a more serious note, I'm glad Apple is growing but what's next? Will we see a repeat of the desktop and smartphone market with tablets?

smartphone market? what do you mean? obviously it is nearly impossible to outsell 20 Oems, but that does not means the 90's desktop crash. apple will grow exponentially.
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