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Google's Schmidt predicts developers will prioritize Android over iOS in 6 months

post #1 of 171
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Google Chairman Eric Schmidt has said he believes mobile developers will prioritize the Android platform over Apple's iOS in the next six months, as the market shifts away from iPhone-centric development.

Schmidt made the comments in Paris, at the LeWeb conference, on Wednesday, according to CNet. He said he believes the high volume of Android shipments, which has given Google the largest share of worldwide smartphone sales, will win over developers.

"Ultimately, application vendors are driven by volume, and volume is favored by the open approach Google is taking," Schmidt said. "There are so many manufacturers working to deliver Android phones globally. Whether you like Android or not, you will support that platform, and maybe you'll even deliver it first."

After one audience member complained that mobile applications frequently appear on Apple's iOS App Store first, Schmidt then went on to predict that six months from now the roles will be reversed. He said he believes Android 4.0, known by its code name Ice Cream Sandwich, will put Android in the leadership position for application developers.

While Android may be leading in current activations, one category where it lags behind Apple is developer revenue. One study publicized last month estimated that Apple's iOS platform takes in about 90 percent of all dollars spent on mobile devices, while Google's Android market has generated about 7 percent of the gross revenue of the iOS App Store.

Earlier this year, Canalys estimated that mobile application stores will top $14 billion in direct revenue in 2012. While the volume of applications downloaded on Android is expected to surpass the iOS App Store, iOS is expected to generate $2.86 billion in application revenue by 2016, compared to just $1.5 billion on Android.



Schmidt also revealed on Wednesday that about 200 million Android phones have been activated to date, and 550,000 new devices are activated daily. In comparison, Apple executives revealed in October that sales of iOS devices, which include the iPhone, iPad and iPod touch, surpassed a quarter of a billion last quarter.

Schmidt also reportedly declined to comment on whether Google's Android has copied iOS features. But he did state that "Android was founded before the iPhone was."

Development of Android began before Apple introduced the iPhone, when the mobile operating system was seen as a challenger to the then-market-leading Research in Motion BlackBerry lineup. But changes to Android, including the addition of a touch-centric interface, led Apple co-founder Steve Jobs to accuse Google of stealing from iOS. Jobs said to biographer Walter Isaacson that he would spend his "last dying breath" fighting Android, as he believed it was a "stolen product."
post #2 of 171
Isn't it nice to be in a position where even being dead-wrong has no consequences?
post #3 of 171
My company won't be. Android remains an afterthought here. The tools are atrocious and nobody wants to work with them. Somebody will eventually draw the short straw though.
post #4 of 171
If volume was the only problem, this would be true. However, if it is the fact that many android users don't spend money on apps, the last thing they need is more users who don't spend money on apps.
post #5 of 171
This guy should stop getting high IMO!
post #6 of 171
What's so special about Ice Cream Sandwich when it comes to development? The vast majority of those 200 million Android devices won't ever see ICS anyway, so nothing will change with development for them.

Let's not forget these predictions have been made rather consistently for several years now. They've never been true.
post #7 of 171
Quote:
Originally Posted by jbruni View Post

Isn't it nice to be in a position where even being dead-wrong has no consequences?

Like politicians, I think this will come back to haunt him.

There is next to no money to be made off of Android. Development tools suck. The consumer base thinks anything above free is too expensive, and fragmentation is best left for another thread.
post #8 of 171
They don't have to make more money they already got it . Android is a big mistake. As a developer I would love to release 50 different versions of my app to support the 50 different or more Android devices. I don't think so. Google also predicted that Google+ would crush Facebook too. I think the problem with Android they didn't standardize it. Every device has a different UI of Android.
post #9 of 171
Google should join the HP club and learn the lessons from TouchPad failure. Best tech-lesson ever.
Apple had me at scrolling
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Apple had me at scrolling
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post #10 of 171
Milk disagrees.
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #11 of 171
There'll be lots of comments about how Android is unprofitable for developers and such. Whatever. All this talk is reminiscent of all the threads that said Android would never ever outsell the iPhone (and later when the goalpost moved iOS). Even the supporting arguments have changed. It used to be that nobody would ever want or buy an Android device. Now the argument is that those who buy thme are cheapskates. I'm probably missing a few more stereotypes in here. Others will add them I'm sure.

I dunno if Schmidt is right, but I would certainly like to see some balance. More devleopers being platform agnostic would be nice. As a consumer, I don't really like having to buy certain hardware just to run certain software. I'd hope that some day they go one step further and allow somebody who bought an app on iOS to get the same app free on Android or vice versa (iTunes Match for apps?).
post #12 of 171
Quote:
Originally Posted by stargatesg1 View Post

They don't have to make more money they already got it . Android is a big mistake. As a developer I would love to release 50 different versions of my app to support the 50 different or more Android devices. I don't think so. Google also predicted that Google+ would crush Facebook too. I think the problem with Android they didn't standardize it. Every device has a different UI of Android.

^^^THIS^^^

Android may roll market share by the sheer volume of phones, however, if every platform is a little different from the next, which makes a nightmare scenario for any developer, then sheer volume will matter very little.
post #13 of 171
I'd like to put money on that.

He's wrong. Verizon doesn't even want to release the Nexus from the looks of it. While 4.0 seems nice, and Android is catching up in quality apps (albeit slowly), there's no effing way this would happen in 6 months, if ever.
post #14 of 171
Quote:
Originally Posted by rcoleman1 View Post

This guy should stop getting high IMO!

Funny! Made smile, thx!
post #15 of 171
The exact thing Eric is pointing at as the reason more develop will flock to Andriod which is "more hardware shipping with android" is the exact reason many develops are avoiding it.

Too many hardware platforms to worry about and deal with. Even new platform that comes out have different specs like screen size memory allocation, processors and the list goes on and a develop can not be guaranty because they tested it on one platform it will work on every other platform out there.

This is a classic example of its strength is its weakness, As M$ about that problem.
post #16 of 171
Hackers, and antii-hackers make up the bulk of the "developers" who will prioritise Android over iOS in 6 months
post #17 of 171
To the untrained eye Android is awesome, maybe. But to us in the know we know that Google just uses Android for mobile advertising. And the Android OEMS are only stuffing that free, off the shelf OS up generic hardware. The game played by the OEMS is to sell new phones every quarter no matter what.
S*** Eric!
post #18 of 171
I'm sure Gruber is filing this under ClaimChowder as we speak.

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post #19 of 171
I always appreciate these predictions from tech industry heavyweights. All we have to do is file them away for future reference and later enjoyment when typically, they prove to be simply posturing. As well, doesn't it always seem like the tech wannabes always have to bad mouth Apple when their own products don't deliver? So much envy, so little maturity. Eric really should know better - it's not just about how many you sold, but the amount of profit you get on each sale. Same is true for mobile developers; they'll always go where the money is for them. Just the usual PR spin for the "folks".
post #20 of 171
Quote:
Originally Posted by halfyearsun View Post

If volume was the only problem, this would be true. However, if it is the fact that many android users don't spend money on apps, the last thing they need is more users who don't spend money on apps.


The reality is actually opposite to what you say in this post. For iOS, it's VERY easy to pirate apps. All you have to do is jailbreak and get installous and you're laughing. You can get any app, no problem, and work almost always.

With android, you have to try and hunt down apps on torrent websites, with most of them not being available, and when they are, most of the time they don't work (formatted for a different CPU/GPU, different resolution, etc.).

So with android, I actually buy a lot of apps because I have no choice, but with iOS the story is different.
post #21 of 171
The only thing going for him in putting a definitive timeline on this "transition" is that the tech market, like the financial market, forgets what people have said in the past. 6 months may as well have been 6 years or 6 days.

Funny thing is, the only player that seems to be right more than not - is Apple. For Schmidt to be right, so many things would have to happen - things that Google and their product partners have no control over - like getting consumers who have android powered devices to start buying apps in much greater numbers. Why he thinks things will change just because of a new OS offering - when so many handsets will not be able to upgrade in the first place. If a consumer isn't buying apps now, why would they start, assuming they could upgrade the OS?
post #22 of 171
in six month iphone 5 would be out and possibly the ipad3 which would spark even more interest in developing for Apple. This guy is on some hard drugs if he thinks 4.0 is going to draw developer away from Apple in 6 month
post #23 of 171
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jetz View Post

As a consumer, I don't really like having to buy certain hardware just to run certain software.

If that kind of thinking held sway there would never have been a Macintosh and all the great products that followed. Just Windows World where anything goes.
A.k.a. AppleHead on other forums.
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A.k.a. AppleHead on other forums.
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post #24 of 171
And monkeys will fly out of my ass within 3 seconds...

3... 2... 1...
post #25 of 171
The man lives in denial. There's a reason he's not CEO anymore.
post #26 of 171
There are a lot of companies that make a lot of money by making a lot of inferior products...google is one of them. As is MS, Dell, HP, Sony, RIM, etc., etc.

And as such, none have earned my interest or loyalty. Apple stands head and shoulders above them all.

When apple makes an MBA with 3G connectivity (like the iPad) i will buy one and I will change my .mac/me email for my personal "stuff" only and use a gmail account for all the other "guff!" ugh!

PS. I never liked Schmidt, he comes across as "smarmy." As someone who just wants to make money by making crap products!
post #27 of 171
Quote:
Originally Posted by sflocal View Post

Like politicians, I think this will come back to haunt him.

There is next to no money to be made off of Android. Development tools suck. The consumer base thinks anything above free is too expensive, and fragmentation is best left for another thread.

Sweet.....
post #28 of 171
Since Eric is in a prediction mood, I predict he will be gone from Google within 12 monthslong before developers will ever prioritize Android over iOS.
In any case why give priority to the 90% of one's work that only produces 10% or one's revenue. I think developers will learn.
post #29 of 171
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jetz View Post

There'll be lots of comments about how Android is unprofitable for developers and such. Whatever. All this talk is reminiscent of all the threads that said Android would never ever outsell the iPhone (and later when the goalpost moved iOS).

There were probably plenty of people who said that, however, it's not about pure numbers that we are seeing today, it's about who is making money and who is getting the end user to buy more stuff - and Apple and iPhone are destroying not only Android but the whole industry.

And what matters to shareholders is profits, not whether they managed to give away 200m copies of Android for free.
post #30 of 171
Quote:
Originally Posted by thesmoth View Post

The reality is actually opposite to what you say in this post. For iOS, it's VERY easy to pirate apps. All you have to do is jailbreak and get installous and you're laughing. You can get any app, no problem, and work almost always.

With android, you have to try and hunt down apps on torrent websites, with most of them not being available, and when they are, most of the time they don't work (formatted for a different CPU/GPU, different resolution, etc.).

So with android, I actually buy a lot of apps because I have no choice, but with iOS the story is different.

It may be VERY easy for you, but the vast majority of iPhone users don't jailbreak. For them, it's easier to go to the App Store and pay their 99 cents. That's why the real money to be made is off of iOS.
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A.k.a. AppleHead on other forums.
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post #31 of 171
Wishful Thinking Dumb-ass.
post #32 of 171
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robin Huber View Post

It may be VERY easy for you, but the vast majority of iPhone users don't jailbreak. For them, it's easier to go to the App Store and pay their 99 cents.

It may (not) be very easy for you (to believe), but the vast majority of jailbreakers don't pirate
post #33 of 171
Quote:
Originally Posted by thesmoth View Post

The reality is actually opposite to what you say in this post. For iOS, it's VERY easy to pirate apps. All you have to do is jailbreak and get installous and you're laughing. You can get any app, no problem, and work almost always.

With android, you have to try and hunt down apps on torrent websites, with most of them not being available, and when they are, most of the time they don't work (formatted for a different CPU/GPU, different resolution, etc.).

So with android, I actually buy a lot of apps because I have no choice, but with iOS the story is different.

You are a thief and beneath contempt.
post #34 of 171
There’s one kind of company that cares about pure volume instead sales revenue: an advertising company.

But app developers are not all advertising companies, much as Google may wish they were, and the sales revenue for apps just isn’t there on Android. It’s a harder platform to support, with lower rewards, compared iOS. And your app can easily be stolen AND (this is key) re-sold by others, with or without added malware you’ll get blamed for!

As a developer myself (albeit unreleased!) that is not a combination I want to jump on.
post #35 of 171
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Google Chairman Eric Schmidt has said he believes mobile developers will prioritize the Android platform over Apple's iOS in the next six months, as the market shifts away from iPhone-centric development."

Eric predicts, huh? Quick, someone alert the 1991 infomertial Psychic Friends Network.
post #36 of 171
He's right - particularly those developers who want to make use of Androids gaping security holes on the most popular handset makers.
My Android phone is the worst phone I've ever owned.
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My Android phone is the worst phone I've ever owned.
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post #37 of 171
Quote:
Originally Posted by jbruni View Post

Isn't it nice to be in a position where even being dead-wrong has no consequences?

And people say that we can trust business more than government...
post #38 of 171
Quote:
Originally Posted by knightlie View Post

He's right - particularly those developers who want to make use of Androids gaping security holes on the most popular handset makers.

Of course he might be correct if developing the same app 3 times to make sure it runs on the THREE most popular flavors of Android is counted....
post #39 of 171
Quote:
Originally Posted by xavier83 View Post

in six month iphone 5 would be out and possibly the ipad3 which would spark even more interest in developing for Apple. This guy is on some hard drugs if he thinks 4.0 is going to draw developer away from Apple in 6 month

Eric's been sniffing glue if he thinks the tide will turn in Android's favour in 6 months. Hell, even if it was going to turn as he predicts then we'd have to wait at least another 2 years for it to be noticeable.

As you say, though, the v6 iPhone (aka iP 4G, iP 5, iP 6.389527) will most likely be out in 6 months and that alone will cause a few Android vendors to start rethinking if Android is the better way to go.

My prediction, Eric, 12 months from now you'll be choking on these words.
Hmmmmmm...
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Hmmmmmm...
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post #40 of 171
My headlight fluid refill company has 10 trillion shares, with each share worth 0 cents.

If it's all about volume, then I'm the largest company in the world.
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