Originally Posted by timgriff84
That's a seriously messed up statement. Believe in AAPL stock? What do you mean believe in it. It's a stock, its going to go up or down. What you really want to know is what it's going to do relative to other stocks so you know when to buy it and when to sell it. e.g. If you reckon it's going to go up 10% in the next 6 months but something else might go up 15% then you want to sell AAPL and buy the other thing. Your predicting how something will change value over a period of time thats all.
Why does RIMM or NFLX drop like a tank? Well that's what stock prices do. If nobody see any potential growth in the stock then nobodys buying it and if nobodys buying then it drops like a tank. And why is AMZN at 100x earning? Well why not? There's no law that dictates what a share price should be in relations to earnings, and the shares arn't being bought for the profit the company makes, there buying it for the profit they make by selling it.
Ignoring Wall Street is just dumb. 50% of what the stock price does is down to analysing the companies financials. The rest is what you think everyone else is going to do and what is going on in the world in general. If you invest in AAPL, your not investing in returns you will recieve from the companies profit because Apple don't pay divends so that revnue is 0, your investing in a prediction that the stock price is going to go higher.
Right now I'd say the biggest thing AAPL investors are thinking are:
1. If we have another massive recession will people be able to affored new phones and mp3 players or could the whole market decline.
2. Will an Apple TV revolutionise the market and add another 50% onto Apples profit
3. Can Apple maintain releasing revolutionary products that capture whole markets or will they soon be out of ideas, in which case time to sell cos that stocks going to start to go flat.
You can buy a Stock based on what you "believe" Investors will do with it in the future (good luck), OR, you can do what any smart Investor does, which is invest in a Company that is solid, rich, growing, debt free, and very well valued Stock-Price wise. My examples of RIMM or NFLX were to show your friend that Wall Street doesn't know Jack until you slap them in the face with him. AMZN is a trap at 100X earnings. If they misstep enough, Wall Street will learn BIG TIME why they're bad at Investing via the factual and logical basis' as the Stock will tank to majorly depressed levels. People keep saying that AAPL can go "flat", but it's already "flat". Sure, there's more room to go down, but this is a company with almost $100 cash in the price, and growing, with tons of tools to use if they wanted to push that Stock up and play the "Wall Street Game".
The best proof that Wall Street doesn't work off of logic is that they keep investing in AMZN (who's performing worse than AAPL all of a sudden, btw), while AAPL is an immensely better value, and an immensely "safer" and better positioned Company.
If Apple posts great numbers this Quarter, with their upcoming products, predicted growth in 2012+, look for the "spooky stories" to heed way to reality as people remember that Apple/AAPL is a powerhouse with tons of growth potential, and very "risk free" in terms of *HARD DATA*, not spooky stories.
Of course, taking into account "what if's" are smart, however, people go waaaaaayyyy overboard when it comes to AAPL in that.
1: Apple already proved that they can grow during a recession, and yes, spooky stories took the Stock down, but then what happened? It went up like a slingshot. They're much better positioned and popular now then they were then, and have proven to Investors that they are capable of handling dynamic situations.
2: Let's hope so.
I see Apple TV as simply a plus, I don't think it can be a breaker at all. It can only help. However, if it is indeed one of the next Apple-Innovations, meaning it's just that good, well, then, Investors and Apple fans are in for a big treat.
3: Who knows, however, as of right now, we have no reason to believe otherwise. With or without Mr. Jobs, the short-long term is already set in stone. Products are in the pipeline for years on out, and they have an amazing team of players who get far too little credit when it comes to Apple's already revolutionary products/business model.
You're saying that Wall Street is 50% logic, and 50% faith. If that's the case, then Apple's logic should be more than enough to convince you that faith should be given to, not taken from them.